Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Sign in to follow this  
TheNegotiator

Crunch Point Trading

Recommended Posts

With the shenanigans going on in the EU summit today, I thought it pertinent to discuss trading before, but more importantly after highly anticipated news, economic releases or speeches. To qualify this I am talking about things which you can sense have the potential to be really big in the days leading up to the event.

 

Here are a few ideas off the top of my head.

 

Pros.

 

Before the release, there is often book balancing and is often fairly predictable in its manner.

 

After the release the market can really move.

 

Important price objectives can be met and important extremities formed.

 

Less noise and more market flow.

 

 

Cons.

 

Before it can sometimes be that the market is just flat.

 

If the release gets leaked early, you can be caught with you pants down.

 

Strong initial reactions to a release can frequently end up the wrong move to follow.

 

You can get in and be stopped before you're right.

 

Greed can be a problem.

 

 

Some considerations if you do want to trade it.

 

Do you trade it normally or would you adjust your strategy?

 

If you vary your size how would you do so?

 

What is the basis for your assessment of risk and therefore you stop placement?

 

Do you trade momentum, breakout, failed breakouts, fade important levels?

 

Do you need a good/fast news source?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For me, I am more than happy to trade in the days leading up to the release. Depending on the market behaviour I may end up taking smaller profits per trade. After the release, I am far more comfortable trying to understand what is going on. My rationale is that if a release is going to carry forward a big significance, it's better for me to understand what is happening at the time so I can better trade the coming days than risk getting involved in an emotional rollercoaster. I believe that even if you manage to take 4 times what you'd make on a reasonable day, it's about what you do over 100, 200, 500, 1000 days and one great day means nothing in the long run. Actually that does remind me that a potential consequence of having a belting day is over-confidence. That's a very dangerous thing for most traders even if the p/l is looking sweet!!

 

Anyone else have a different take or strategy for these sorts of days? I know some guys make a living off trading solely in this type of market.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Con.

 

If you are trading and your connection goes down, you could end up way offside before it comes back online(or can get through to your broker's trading desk). :puke:

Edited by TheNegotiator

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Playing the extremes of “crunch points” (instead of the breakouts, btw) has developed over the years to one of my favorite times to be trading – simply because it is exciting. I always aspired to be great at it, but back in the early days had a lot of white knuckle and adrenaline ‘side effects’ to deal with. It’s easy money if you can accept the short term heat. Keys are experience and never to be oversized. I liken it to being up on the stick in a old biplane using intuitive measures instead of normal trading which is like flying a jumbo jet with all kinds of precise instrumentation…

With practice you can get good at hitting at the market during the final surges in excursions.

 

My (quite unnecessary) 'mental' confidence is based on the stats that a high percentage of news releases and reports, etc. that have immediate wild excursion away from starting place return back near to where they started from within hours – with even higher freq. than in the old days. Haven’t ran the stats, but I also believe the excursion ranges are also not as extreme as they used to be...

... and related to this, I have gone offline during 'madness' ... because of these tendencies /stats, it's nothing to really worry about. If you have to, you can always overwhelm any remaining heat later with size - that is if you're not oversized to begin with...

 

 

 

Negoc8r, a compliment - you are a great poster and a super moderator too. Thanks.

Edited by zdo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have to say fading extremes would be my best bet if I were to trade it and then scale out of a good chunk pretty quickly. Going with it can be a strong urge but can be dangerous too. Maybe I'll look at implementing a plan for the future. If I do though, I think I'd open a separate account to ring fence the risk.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well the kind of moves which could've happened yesterday didn't materialise. However, it looks as though we might go for it today given overnight activity. Who knows. Anyway, early on yesterday, a very clear selloff did happen and it was fairly easy to get onboard. The "how much" question was more the issue!

 

But it goes to show that even if the actual event itself ends up not producing fireworks, the pre-event trading can be quite productive.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • Thx for reminding us... I don't bang that drum often enough anymore Another part for consideration is who that money initially went to...
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • How long does it take to receive HFM's withdrawal via Skrill? less than 24H?
    • My wife Robin just wanted some groceries.   Simple enough.   She parked the car for fifteen minutes, and returned to find a huge scratch on the side.   Someone keyed her car.   To be clear, this isn’t just any car.   It’s a Cybertruck—Elon Musk's stainless-steel spaceship on wheels. She bought it back in 2021, before Musk became everyone's favorite villain or savior.   Someone saw it parked in a grocery lot and felt compelled to carve their hatred directly into the metal.   That's what happens when you stand out.   Nobody keys a beige minivan.   When you're polarizing, you're impossible to ignore. But the irony is: the more attention something has, the harder it is to find the truth about it.   What’s Elon Musk really thinking? What are his plans? What will happen with DOGE? Is he deserving of all of this adoration and hate? Hard to say.   Ideas work the same way.   Take tariffs, for example.   Tariffs have become the Cybertrucks of economic policy. People either love them or hate them. Even if they don’t understand what they are and how they work. (Most don’t.)   That’s why, in my latest podcast (link below), I wanted to explore the “in-between” truth about tariffs.   And like Cybertrucks, I guess my thoughts on tariffs are polarizing.   Greg Gutfield mentioned me on Fox News. Harvard professors hate me now. (I wonder if they also key Cybertrucks?)   But before I show you what I think about tariffs… I have to mention something.   We’re Headed to Austin, Texas This weekend, my team and I are headed to Austin. By now, you should probably know why.   Yes, SXSW is happening. But my team and I are doing something I think is even better.   We’re putting on a FREE event on “Tech’s Turning Point.”   AI, quantum, biotech, crypto, and more—it’s all on the table.   Just now, we posted a special webpage with the agenda.   Click here to check it out and add it to your calendar.   The Truth About Tariffs People love to panic about tariffs causing inflation.   They wave around the ghost of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff from the Great Depression like it’s Exhibit A proving tariffs equal economic collapse.   But let me pop this myth:   Tariffs don’t cause inflation. And no, I'm not crazy (despite what angry professors from Harvard or Stanford might tweet at me).   Here's the deal.   Inflation isn’t when just a couple of things become pricier. It’s when your entire shopping basket—eggs, shirts, Netflix subscriptions, bananas, everything—starts costing more because your money’s worth less.   Inflation means your dollars aren’t stretching as far as they used to.   Take the 1800s.   For nearly a century, 97% of America’s revenue came from tariffs. Income tax? Didn’t exist. And guess what inflation was? Basically zero. Maybe 1% a year.   The economy was booming, and tariffs funded nearly everything. So, why do people suddenly think tariffs cause inflation today?   Tariffs are taxes on imports, yes, but prices are set by supply and demand—not tariffs.   Let me give you a simple example.   Imagine fancy potato chips from Canada cost $10, and a 20% tariff pushes that to $12. Everyone panics—prices rose! Inflation!   Nope.   If I only have $100 to spend and the price of my favorite chips goes up, I either stop buying chips or I buy, say, fewer newspapers.   If everyone stops buying newspapers because they’re overspending on chips, newspapers lower their prices or go out of business.   Overall spending stays the same, and inflation doesn’t budge.   Three quick scenarios:   We buy pricier chips, but fewer other things: Inflation unchanged. Manufacturers shift to the U.S. to avoid tariffs: Inflation unchanged (and more jobs here). We stop buying fancy chips: Prices drop again. Inflation? Still unchanged. The only thing that actually causes inflation is printing money.   Between 2020 and 2022 alone, 40% of all money ever created in history appeared overnight.   That’s why inflation shot up afterward—not because of tariffs.   Back to tariffs today.   Still No Inflation Unlike the infamous Smoot-Hawley blanket tariff (imagine Oprah handing out tariffs: "You get a tariff, and you get a tariff!"), today's tariffs are strategic.   Trump slapped tariffs on chips from Taiwan because we shouldn’t rely on a single foreign supplier for vital tech components—especially if that supplier might get invaded.   Now Taiwan Semiconductor is investing $100 billion in American manufacturing.   Strategic win, no inflation.   Then there’s Canada and Mexico—our friendly neighbors with weirdly huge tariffs on things like milk and butter (299% tariff on butter—really, Canada?).   Trump’s not blanketing everything with tariffs; he’s pressuring trade partners to lower theirs.   If they do, everybody wins. If they don’t, well, then we have a strategic trade chess game—but still no inflation.   In short, tariffs are about strategy, security, and fairness—not inflation.   Yes, blanket tariffs from the Great Depression era were dumb. Obviously. Today's targeted tariffs? Smart.   Listen to the whole podcast to hear why I think this.   And by the way, if you see a Cybertruck, don’t key it. Robin doesn’t care about your politics; she just likes her weird truck.   Maybe read a good book, relax, and leave cars alone.   (And yes, nobody keys Volkswagens, even though they were basically created by Hitler. Strange world we live in.) Source: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/the-truth-about-tariffs-busting-the-inflation-myth    Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/       
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.