Is It Time to Give Up and Join 90% of “losers”?

[mslk 10]

As committed and dedicated as I was - after 4 years pursuing Automated Strategies (total 9 years active in Forex, with primary focus on day-trading, both mean-reverse and trend-following) I am finally ready to give up. About $100K spent, over 20 various ideas for Algo explored (programmed and tested – both back-test and forward-test, both demo and real, both domestic bank and international prime-broker, etc. - you name it), but eventually all failed, or seem so.

 

Was it (i) wrong market selection, or

(ii) bad ideas for Algo in essence, or

(iii) wrong targets and too high expectations, or

(iv) technology/platforms shortfalls, or

(v) absence of clear and transparent performance/quality evaluation criteria, as well as similar criteria for the progress of the entire Project, or

(vi) poor terms definitions and lack of understanding/communications with investors, or

(vii) just myself not being smart enough, or

could be a combination of all above -- one way or another I have finally hit a threshold.

 

So at this point would greatly appreciate an advice – double the efforts and keep digging in (?), or quit it for good and forget it as a worst nightmare (?).

[DbPhoenix 42]

If you're pursuing the wrong markets in the wrong way with the wrong objectives, digging in probably won't help much, not after four years.

 

Perhaps you should ask yourself why you got into trading in the first place. Are you interested in pursuing a strategy that isn't automated? Or even mechanical? Are you interested in pursuing some other market, something that you actually know something about (assuming you're not a banker or some other sort of currency specialist)?

 

Ordinarily I'd read somebody's past posts to get an idea of who they are and what they want, but you've got 119 of them, so forgive me if I don't take that time. But if your objectives and desires have changed, they may not be pertinent anyway other than to remind you of your regrets. If you want to pursue a different course, you can put all that behind you. But you must first determine just what it is you've learned, if anything, from the experience.

A losing trader can do little to transform himself into a winning trader. A losing trader is not going to want to transform himself. That’s the kind of thing winning traders do.

-- Ed Seykota

[Niko 10]

Dont Give Up, Just stop using real money until you learn.

[steve46 12]

Ed Seykota said some very interesting things about trading, and many think him eccentric (and they are being kind)....I like the guy. If you really consider what he is saying and then ask yourself whether you are ready to LEAVE BEHIND HASN'T WORKED AND START NEW then you MIGHT have a chance...not a great chance, not a good chance but what we used to call a "fighting chance"

 

I was doing some research for my next class and found the following data from the US Small Business Administration; Here is just a small part of what I learned;

 

(Assuming you agree that trading is a business)

 

About 10% of all new business fail within the first year

Approximately 50% are still in business after 5 years

2/3rds of all small businesses fail within 10 years

 

and real question is why

 

Here are my answers

 

1.) Low barriers to entry....all you need to start a trading business is computer, an account, and a couple thousand dollars...that's all...and because the barriers are so low, there's a lot of competition

2) Lack of competitive advantage.....most new traders don't have an edge. Generally they misunderstand what an "edge" (a competitive advantage) is...they learn "by hard experience" that what they believe will work......doesn't....

3.)Lack of experience/or education....both are necessary and most new traders start without a basic understanding of the profession...

4)No business plan/no risk management plan....the basis of every business requires that the owner find a way to overcome expenses and make a profit...most folks either don't start with a viable plan OR they abandon it at crucial times, and that sinks their ship....

5)Unrealistic expectations......This profession, like any other requires skill, discipline and commitment to a common goal....it can take years just to acquire the experience and education necessary to compete successfully. It also takes sufficient capital and access to the right tools....lacking just one of these elements can mean failure...the most common failure is the belief "I'm the exception...I can make it without covering all the bases" OR (just as commonly)...."I'll take care of it later"....

 

If some of these things correspond to your situation, I suggest you take stock of your inner resources and ask yourself whether you have the energy to fix it, or start over and learn a new game....many of us go through the same process and it comes down to answering that same question....fix it, start over new or find a different game to play.......

 

Good luck

Steve

[SIUYA 11]

  mslk said:

As committed and dedicated as I was - after 4 years pursuing Automated Strategies (total 9 years active in Forex, with primary focus on day-trading, both mean-reverse and trend-following) I am finally ready to give up. About $100K spent, over 20 various ideas for Algo explored (programmed and tested – both back-test and forward-test, both demo and real, both domestic bank and international prime-broker, etc. - you name it), but eventually all failed, or seem so.

 

Was it (i) wrong market selection, or

(ii) bad ideas for Algo in essence, or

(iii) wrong targets and too high expectations, or

(iv) technology/platforms shortfalls, or

(v) absence of clear and transparent performance/quality evaluation criteria, as well as similar criteria for the progress of the entire Project, or

(vi) poor terms definitions and lack of understanding/communications with investors, or

(vii) just myself not being smart enough, or

could be a combination of all above -- one way or another I have finally hit a threshold.

 

So at this point would greatly appreciate an advice – double the efforts and keep digging in (?), or quit it for good and forget it as a worst nightmare (?).

 

I am making lots of assumptions here......

 

i) no such thing - some are just harder than others and require different strengths and styles that perform better. Sounds like if you tried them all you did not work out which style suits you, why it would work and how you would make it work. You should at least have one that you predominately favour, stuck with and prefer.

ii) should have been worked out in testing and shown to work, and shown to suit 1)

iii) wrong targets (if price targets -then testing a review should reveal this) if expectations then most likely yes - forget the BS - be realistic - be properly capitalised, get a good solid consistent return - not some BS shoot the lights out. This should all be part of why you are doing it. (I would not open a sandwich shop and think i will become a billionarie unless i have some usp to be able to turn it into a worldwide franchsie AFTER the first shop works)

iv) dont blame the tools - of if you are doing so then quit.

v) see iii

vi) WTF - are you trading for yourself or do you have a completely different business whereby you have to try and meet investor expectations as well.

vii) possibly - there is no shame in that.....and maybe your strengths are better suited elsewhere. Smarts are not required.

 

There is no shame in trying failing, learning and moving on. I worked out once very quickly i would hate to be a lawyer/salesperson/fundamental analyst (thank god it was a quick discovery)

Persistence and learning from mistakes is a good thing, persistence and repeating the same mistakes because you dont learn from failure is idiotic.

Maybe the mistake is not in your trading at all.

 

It also sounds if you were day trading for 9 years you dont need the money - or you were not really day trading......

[MightyMouse 12]

  mslk said:

 

So at this point would greatly appreciate an advice – double the efforts and keep digging in (?), or quit it for good and forget it as a worst nightmare (?).

 

Did you actually lose money trading or did you get eaten alive by your transaction costs?

Big, big, difference.

 

You may be deciding to quit as a winning trader who over traded.

[Galacticus 10]

  mslk said:

 

So at this point would greatly appreciate an advice – double the efforts and keep digging in (?), or quit it for good and forget it as a worst nightmare (?).

 

Actually it's 99%.

 

Try this on paper trading.

[JDog 10]

Trading is a hard business. What I discovered is a consistency in identifying and entering good trades. However, once into a position, I failed miserably at managing it.

Emotions would override my trading rules, and I would take on too much risk and/or get out or a profitable position way too early. I battled this hit and miss form of breakeven trading for 10 years and often considered giving it up.

 

I then tried automation and found it too much of a challenge to program and automate my entry signals--as my rules relied on a variation of circumstances that is sometimes hard for me to even define, much less code. What I did find is a middle ground where I enter my trades manually and let the program sync to the broker positions and manage them accordingly. It is then a matter of allowing the program to do its job which I find easier and less stressful than doing it myself.

 

Once I coupled my entries to the software exits, I became profitable on a consistent basis.

[DbPhoenix 42]

I don't know if the OP will be back or not, but for some reason this thread interests me, and I've reviewed his posts. While his story is hardly unique, the posts present what to some would be a fascinating look at how and when and where and why a journey goes wrong. If all beginners were to read it, they could very well save themselves a ton of money and time.

 

While some would claim that the problem lies within his brain stem, I suggest as always that the problem lies instead in the desire to trade somebody else's system in general and the lack of a trading plan in particular (and, no, trading somebody else's system is not a plan, at least a plan which will guide one toward success). And since developing and testing a plan is faster and cheaper than surgery or therapy, I suggest the plan route.

Edited April 4, 2013 by DbPhoenix
Added link

[zdo 20]

  mslk said:

...

 

So at this point would greatly appreciate an advice – double the efforts and keep digging in (?), or quit it for good and forget it as a worst nightmare (?).

 

mslk,

 

First things first…

"digging in"

vs

“ you have to be willing to sacrifice who you are for who you can become.” Dan Millman

 

First things first…

if your passion for trading is still high even in ‘failure’, then persist; ...else, get out.

 

 

… and re “persist”, in my observations of many traders across the years …

a losing trader works… develops… practices until he gets ‘it’ right (wot )

a trader transitioning from loser to winner works… develops… practices until he gets ‘it’ wrong

a winning trader works… develops… practices until he can’t get ‘it’ wrong

 

 

All the best... which ever way you go...

 

zdo

[natureboy1618 10]

No. There are ways to make good money.

[clyde99 10]

  mslk said:

As committed and dedicated as I was - after 4 years pursuing Automated Strategies (total 9 years active in Forex, with primary focus on day-trading, both mean-reverse and trend-following) I am finally ready to give up. About $100K spent, over 20 various ideas for Algo explored (programmed and tested – both back-test and forward-test, both demo and real, both domestic bank and international prime-broker, etc. - you name it), but eventually all failed, or seem so.

 

Was it (i) wrong market selection, or

(ii) bad ideas for Algo in essence, or

(iii) wrong targets and too high expectations, or

(iv) technology/platforms shortfalls, or

(v) absence of clear and transparent performance/quality evaluation criteria, as well as similar criteria for the progress of the entire Project, or

(vi) poor terms definitions and lack of understanding/communications with investors, or

(vii) just myself not being smart enough, or

could be a combination of all above -- one way or another I have finally hit a threshold.

 

So at this point would greatly appreciate an advice – double the efforts and keep digging in (?), or quit it for good and forget it as a worst nightmare (?).

 

I've been a lurker here for about 4 years now but given that the pain of loss and learning isn't that far in the past for me I feel compelled to respond to this. Based on what you've written it sounds like you've been focused mainly on the tertiary aspects of trading without ever having learned how to actually trade. That you were willing to give $100K to the market (all the professional traders thank you for this by the way) tells me you're trading entirely on hope and not on know-how. Forget about banks, algorithms, investors, platforms and the like, and focus on learning the market you're trading! If you can't open a chart of the eurusd (for example) and know why price turned where it did you have no business even thinking about the other stuff yet. Doubling your efforts on the things you have been focused on is just going to dig you into a deeper hole twice as fast. You need to commit and dedicate yourself to the thing that actually matters, learning as much about how and why price moves as you can. If you aren't willing to spend the time doing this, then yes, you should walk away.

[clyde99 10]

  mslk said:

As committed and dedicated as I was - after 4 years pursuing Automated Strategies (total 9 years active in Forex, with primary focus on day-trading, both mean-reverse and trend-following) I am finally ready to give up. About $100K spent, over 20 various ideas for Algo explored (programmed and tested – both back-test and forward-test, both demo and real, both domestic bank and international prime-broker, etc. - you name it), but eventually all failed, or seem so.

 

Was it (i) wrong market selection, or

(ii) bad ideas for Algo in essence, or

(iii) wrong targets and too high expectations, or

(iv) technology/platforms shortfalls, or

(v) absence of clear and transparent performance/quality evaluation criteria, as well as similar criteria for the progress of the entire Project, or

(vi) poor terms definitions and lack of understanding/communications with investors, or

(vii) just myself not being smart enough, or

could be a combination of all above -- one way or another I have finally hit a threshold.

 

So at this point would greatly appreciate an advice – double the efforts and keep digging in (?), or quit it for good and forget it as a worst nightmare (?).

 

I've been a lurker here for about 4 years now but given that the pain of loss and learning isn't that far in the past for me I feel compelled to respond to this. Based on what you've written it sounds like you've been focused mainly on the tertiary aspects of trading without ever having learned how to actually trade. That you were willing to give $100K to the market (all the professional traders thank you for this by the way) tells me you're trading entirely on hope and not on know-how. Forget about banks, algorithms, investors, platforms and the like, and focus on learning the market you're trading! If you can't open a chart of the eurusd (for example) and know why price turned where it did you have no business even thinking about the other stuff yet. Doubling your efforts on the things you have been focused on is just going to dig you into a deeper hole twice as fast. You need to commit and dedicate yourself to the thing that actually matters, learning as much about how and why price moves as you can. If you aren't willing to spend the time doing this, then yes, you should walk away.

[raul 10]

– double the efforts and keep digging in (?)

 

No, insanity is expecting different results by doing the same thing over and over. I think you need time to rest, regroup and review. It would help to know what you are trading and where you are.

 

I personally would not trade Forex although some have success with it, I trade e-mini futures which covers just about everything.

 

You are the holy grail, you have to find a method that you believe in, even if it is as basic as a moving average crossover or a CCI cross (they both work, properly managed).

Start with a clean slate, be prepared, don't rush, let the trade come to you. If you fail, don't beat yourself up, move on. The psychological baggage will take time to overcome but you can make it. Most of all stop trading with real money. Paper trade until you are consistent, analyze your mistakes, overcome bad habits.

 

There are thousands of vendors out there selling systems and training, very few can be trusted in my book, most I think are just out to take your money.

 

.....or quit it for good and forget it as a worst nightmare (?).

 

There is nothing wrong with walking away for a while and quitting is not failure either. You may have to stop and work a while to build up your account, that is not failure.

 

Success:

 

Fall down 6 times,

get up 7 times.

[Rande Howell 10]

At some point in time most traders come to recognize the problem with their trading is them, not the platform or the methodology (particularly if you can sim trade profitably). Trading requires a very different kind of "success mind" than the "success mind" that drives success in professional careers and businiesses. But until you recognize the problem is not "out there" but "in there", you'll chase the Holy Grail and keep putting a dent into your capital. Developing the trading mind is moving from an urgent discipline (gotta be trading to make money) to a patient disipline that can wait for the trade to come to you rather than chase the trade.

 

MM also makes a very good point. Less is more. Over trading creates enormous costs to over come.

[zdo 20]

paraphrasing Pema Chodron -

“Nothing really goes away ...until it teaches us what we need to know.”

[DbPhoenix 42]

Lessons are repeated until they are learned.

 

--Iyanla Vanzant

[Gekko78 10]

I was once like you. Not so much on the automated tradings robots and such but, on the side of trading for about 5 years and still losing lots of money consistently. Two phrases I came across about 2 years ago changed everything for me:

 

1) "Failure is not defeat until you stop trying" Got that gem in a fortune cookie"

 

2) " True genius resides in simplicity" read this in a book.

 

Once I embraced both of these everything changed for me.

 

I stopped "looking" for a way to trade the market , I let the market show me the best way. I know this may not make sense but It has worked for me. I am now profitable with no indicators, robots or anything like that at all just price action and nothing more......Simple.

 

My best advice is to open up a live chart with nothing on it but price and just watch and study it. It may take a few weeks, months or even years but, if you have the patience the answers will appear.....just keep thinking of saying number 2 and you will get it.

 

I wish you the best of luck.

[steve46 12]

I suspect that advice given here is largely ignored.....Ed Seykota's quote (from DB's post) is pretty accurate....losers are losers because they define themselves in those terms.....winners have a positive self image and when THEY lose, they take the time to figure out why, then they go out and find the tools necessary to "transform" themselves (*back into winners....)

 

and although no one is going to pay much attention or give a damn, I have been there......and I know just how much pure hell it can be to have no idea of where to start to turn it around....like all things in life, you either rise to the occasion or you don't.

 

* I start out with the idea that we are all capable of being winners naïve I know but its my freakin life and that's how I choose to waste it....

[Gekko78 10]

  steve46 said:

I suspect that advice given here is largely ignored.....Ed Seykota's quote (from DB's post) is pretty accurate....losers are losers because they define themselves in those terms.....winners have a positive self image and when THEY lose, they take the time to figure out why, then they go out and find the tools necessary to "transform" themselves (*back into winners....)

 

and although no one is going to pay much attention or give a damn, I have been there......and I know just how much pure hell it can be to have no idea of where to start to turn it around....like all things in life, you either rise to the occasion or you don't.

 

* I start out with the idea that we are all capable of being winners naïve I know but its my freakin life and that's how I choose to waste it....

 

I agree pretty much with everything you said here. I heard something about 6 years ago that reminds me of what you are saying....." The difference between successful people and unsuccessful people is that successful do what unsuccessful people are not willing to do"

[Patuca 13]

You might want to try breaking all the rules that most traders live by. For one month on a demo. Say using 2 to 4 contracts of something maybe an emini? Most lose anyway.

 

Just an idea..most would say a crazy idea. However you might be surprised with the results.

 

On a demo do things like average down your losses. Use no stop losses until have one half of your account is blown. That is, use none until you are left with 50% of your account...if that happens..

 

Catch falling knifes

 

Try to catch tops and bottoms.

 

Generally just break all the rules you know about.

 

I know..i am crazy......:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

 

report back.....

 

REMEMBER ON A DEMO ONLY...

[steve46 12]

Changed my mind with regard to my post

 

If a person feels that they have given it their "all"...then try something else

 

If a person feels down and depressed and has lost a lot of money.....I like to quote an old friend who said that "nothing is ever as good or as bad as it seems".....find a way to recoup your losses and live to fight another day.

 

Good luck

Edited June 29, 2013 by steve46

[MaksymGra 10]

So, mslk, where did you go?