Euro Debt Crisis

[MaksymGra 10]

no no, you get me wrong......like in the eurjpy live trade I posted the other day.......the analysis comes from the higher time frames (monthly, weekly) but on that 4h chart the counting shows where are we supposed to be on that time frame.........and I trade that time frame or even the 1h chart, with SL and TP based on that one.........the support and resistance areas from the higher timeframes I take them into consideration when price reaches them.......but trading the lower time frames count.........too confusing?

 

A little bit yes

 

Can you post few step-by-step graphs?

[tradingwizzard 10]

A little bit yes

 

Can you post few step-by-step graphs?

 

will post a sequence on my next trade on the Live Trading thread I have......please look in there, I will post one analysis today on the eurusd

[SunTrader 10]

.........

too confusing?

Nope I've seen it many times before.

[tradingwizzard 10]

Nope I've seen it many times before.

 

this must be a coincidence.... me too

[Ammeo 10]

Despite minutes from the Fed's June meeting showing half of its policymakers think its monthly $85B stimulus program should be cut by the end of 2013, Bernanke's message was enough to snap markets back into buying mode.

 

Nonetheless, Bernanke's comments were taken by the markets as much more dovish so I suspect it be good to trade puts especially on the DAX and the FTSE100.

 

We are still in a bit of a sweet spot for equity markets. The US economy is recovering steadily and this is an encouraging sign for equity markets with future earnings expected to be good, but it is not hot enough to cause the Fed to scale back the stimulus...

[tradingwizzard 10]

Despite minutes from the Fed's June meeting showing half of its policymakers think its monthly $85B stimulus program should be cut by the end of 2013, Bernanke's message was enough to snap markets back into buying mode.

 

Nonetheless, Bernanke's comments were taken by the markets as much more dovish so I suspect it be good to trade puts especially on the DAX and the FTSE100.

 

We are still in a bit of a sweet spot for equity markets. The US economy is recovering steadily and this is an encouraging sign for equity markets with future earnings expected to be good, but it is not hot enough to cause the Fed to scale back the stimulus...

 

believe it or not, Hilsenrath coming out yesterday saying Fed message in FOMC was actually hawkis, not dovish.....:helloooo:

[ntrader 10]

Portugal's borrowing costs rise after Socialist leader rejects bailout terms

[ntrader 10]

Fitch became the third ratings agency to strip France of its AAA rating, to AA+.

[tradingwizzard 10]

Fitch became the third ratings agency to strip France of its AAA rating, to AA+.

 

not a news for Europe as a whole anymore

[ntrader 10]

Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, said the euro zone had stabilized markedly in the last year as he offered an ever so slightly more upbeat assessment of the prospects for growth. But he indicated that the fragile state of the euro zone economy means that any decision to raise interest rates is still a long way off.

[SunTrader 10]

As seen at the top of the page:

 

For all members who want to repeatedly post news updates, please do so in the News forum

[tradingwizzard 10]

Most likely debt ceiling crisis...

[SunTrader 10]

Most likely debt ceiling crisis...

Most likely nothing, actually is the better description - for both.

 

Neither want to acknowledge debt problems and are "kicking the can" down the road.

[tradingwizzard 10]

Most likely nothing, actually is the better description - for both.

 

Neither want to acknowledge debt problems and are "kicking the can" down the road.

 

is there any other way?.....I don't think so....so let's kick it still for a couple of more decades and still call it we're in a crises......regardless the type (euro, debt ceiling, etc)

[SunTrader 10]

....so let's kick it still for a couple of more decades .....

Very little likelihood we can keep it going beyond a couple more years.

[tradingwizzard 10]

Very little likelihood we can keep it going beyond a couple more years.

 

I'll take my chances rather than wait for "inevitable" to happen......Greece was inevitably falling no more than 1.5 years ago.......same Spain..........and so on

 

so I would rather do something constructive in the meantime......like buying equities

 

TW

[SunTrader 10]

True. Day to day I trade the markets. This is all background noise to me.

[Ammeo 10]

Personally i have the same analysis, however im more concern over the time line. The Feds tapering is not a concluded matter. Basically, they could start tapering as early as November just to see how markets are going to react to it ! Then, they take it from there .. Do you really think , anyone will talk about tapering , while a second government shut down & debt ceiling as early as Feb 2014 ? The bond markets will be a sell off. In Euro's defense, it wasn't a honey moon month also. Italy's government was on the brink of a crisis , Greece about to ask for the third bail out tranch, there is no elected government yet in Germany and exposure to Syrian - new Iraq reality. However, all in all he Euro is in better shape than one year ago. So i see your point there !

 

In my opinion, now is the time for a Rate cut - not an LTRO ... why Dragni is holding on? I have no idea, are they expecting Euro to reach higher? Is it German opposition? Or growing feeling that Europe is recovering and no need for extra measure.

 

So, in 6 Months from now its more than possible...........

[tradingwizzard 10]

Personally i have the same analysis, however im more concern over the time line. The Feds tapering is not a concluded matter. Basically, they could start tapering as early as November just to see how markets are going to react to it ! Then, they take it from there .. Do you really think , anyone will talk about tapering , while a second government shut down & debt ceiling as early as Feb 2014 ? The bond markets will be a sell off. In Euro's defense, it wasn't a honey moon month also. Italy's government was on the brink of a crisis , Greece about to ask for the third bail out tranch, there is no elected government yet in Germany and exposure to Syrian - new Iraq reality. However, all in all he Euro is in better shape than one year ago. So i see your point there !

 

In my opinion, now is the time for a Rate cut - not an LTRO ... why Dragni is holding on? I have no idea, are they expecting Euro to reach higher? Is it German opposition? Or growing feeling that Europe is recovering and no need for extra measure.

 

So, in 6 Months from now its more than possible...........

 

oh but they won't cut the rates.......the reallocation into the euraud pair for example has been tremendous lately and it will continue.....if you think the pair traveled from the 1.17 area only to pierce the 1.50 level by 30 pips and then to go on free falling.......I don't think so and 1.50 is here to stay and it will be touched again.

 

same bullish story on eurnzd, eurcad, and even on eurusd.....so technicals do not favor a rate cut as it is priced in on the market now, and fundamentals neither, as a rate cut would undermine the work ECB did so far......why firing the last bullet they have when conditions are relative stable in terms of currency fluctuations (I mean a coridor of 1000 pips is ok for any central bank)........so the key will come from the US

[Ammeo 10]

Moody's warns on Euro zone banks

 

The credit rating agency reported that EU bank capital and profits will remain pressured in 2014 due to the effects of the European debt-crisis lingering on for sometime.

 

The bank outlook is mixed with the credit quality of peripheral EU nations softening.

[tradingwizzard 10]

Moody's warns on Euro zone banks

 

The credit rating agency reported that EU bank capital and profits will remain pressured in 2014 due to the effects of the European debt-crisis lingering on for sometime.

 

The bank outlook is mixed with the credit quality of peripheral EU nations softening.

 

yeah, lately European banks have been also warned by the ECB to make sure they are preparing for when the Fed will unwind the QE

 

so something is coming....storm or just bad weather?

 

TW