Eminiman414's Log (Learning Wyckoff)

[eminiman414 10]

I will start my log this evening. I'm excited!

 

Thanks!

[DbPhoenix 42]

That makes three. Hope you talk to each other.

[blocp 10]

looking forward to your posts

[Niko 10]

Great Eminiman! Looking forward for your posts.

[eminiman414 10]

So quickly I use 100k/10k/1k cvb to located ranges/zones/areas of interests or whatever term you wish to use and plot as S/R. I also use a 1 tick chart used as my "tape" to observe trader behavior alongside a 1min chart with volume so I can view the relationships between price movement and volume (effort/result). At times I also look at a 1tick range chart or for the NQ lets say a .25 range chart which helps me to keep track of the waves associated with the 1 tick chart because sometimes I only get a minute view of price activity on the 1 tick chart.

 

Trying to follow the basic approach that has been outlined, discussed, and still discussed within the Wyckoff forum.

 

Attached are charts with the areas I see an interest in.

 

The first cvb chart I see price broke that "macro" zone breaking the 2780 level. An area of interest below price would be the range from 2/8-2/21 from 2756 to 2780 with the midpoint being 2768.

 

The second cvb chart shows the macro and micro zones to which price has now entered. Initially I am interested in the range from 9/27 to 10/5 from 2770 to around 2815-20 with the midpoint of 2793.

 

The third cvb chart shows the last two days and how it is forming a "smaller" range from 2790 to 2809 with the midpoint at 2800.

 

I do understand that these areas are all "potentially" support and resistance and we will not know until price gets there however this is where I find it slightly more difficult to develop a strategy being that the levels i have listed are 2756, 2768, 2770, 2780, 2790, 2793, 2800, 2809, 2815-2820. Seems to be a lot to look at but I do not think these levels are too far off from what may end up being a sound level. My question then is does one just focus on the immediate smaller range being that from 2790 to 2809, or should the focus be on the previous range from months ago that being between 2770 to 2815-20 since that's the zone we have now entered from previous months??? If one is to focus on this smaller area there really isn't much room for price to go before another potential area comes in to play. According to my levels anyway. Note also I am not trying to scalp for ticks etc. Since 2793ish is a midpoint of one of the ranges I am focusing on and price is about 2790 at this point, should that be more of the zone I am focusing on. Today I was focused on 2780 to 2815 with the midpoint of about 2798.

 

No immediate plan tomorrow as of right now. Maybe I will get some feedback to all of this and in the morning have something better developed.

[eminiman414 10]

I am going to see what happens in the overnight and reassess in the morning. I am interested in 2790 after that I am looking at 2780 to 2815-20 w 2798-00 midpoint.

[DbPhoenix 42]

I do understand that these areas are all "potentially" support and resistance and we will not know until price gets there however this is where I find it slightly more difficult to develop a strategy being that the levels i have listed are 2756, 2768, 2770, 2780, 2790, 2793, 2800, 2809, 2815-2820. Seems to be a lot to look at . . .

 

Yes, it is.

 

Don't get too carried away with the boxes and lines. Don't forget what support and resistance are: those levels or points at which traders could no longer find trades (and thus had to back up). When those points repeat themselves, a rectangular, tradeable trading range may form. If they don't, you still may have a "trading range", i.e., a state of non-trend, but it will be vastly more difficult to profit from it.

 

This is not to say that swing points can't provide support and resistance, but they won't necessarily be part of a range. The range represents an area where more trades take place than in a trend, with the largest number of trades taking place in the middle. Why? Because price repeatedly passes through that middle, hence more trades. The fewest number of trades take place at the edges. If you want a sure trade, trade in the middle, but the odds that price will then move in the desired direction are slim. If you want to increase the odds that price will move in the desired direction after you're filled, then trade at the edges, even though the odds of your being filled are somewhat less.

[eminiman414 10]

I will try to bring my focus to those more important zones and not just sideways movement so to speak. Another thing I am going to do is begin to break my analysis up into 15 minute blocks from 9:30 to 11:00. I did this today and time flew by and for whatever reason I was able to maintain focus a bit better. At this point I'm only getting in about an hour since I switched to the 1tick chart. Once activity starts to slow my mind tends to drift when watching it. As of now I am sharp until about 10:30.

 

I have attached my analysis on the 1 min chart. Nothing crazy today just some things I witness and thought were interesting when I observed them. I have attached the tick chart associated with a few of the areas. I have noticed that the tick chart and volume on the 1 minute chart kind of go hand in hand. When the pace of the tick chart slows when I look at the volume on the 1 min it is declining and vice versa. This call makes sense as volume is transactions and the tick chart is transactions just never really dawned on me until today. Watching price move at the open at area A in my chart was the most compelling move for me today.

 

First chart is a 1 min. First tick chart is area A, second is area D, last is area E.

[Niko 10]

Did you take any trades today?. It was particulary choppy.

[eminiman414 10]

No trades today. My plan was a little wishy washy and did not feel too confident so I sat back and watched.

[eminiman414 10]

Didn't post my foresight analysis last night as I was at the Ranger game. My intial plan was going long at a break/test of 2809. That break happened when I was waking up so the new plan was to short the 2809 area or the 2815/20 area based on trader behavior and looking for price to come back to the midpoint. Typing this is obv hindsight for you all to read but I had it down on paper at my desk.

 

I am posting a 1 min for context and took notes on what I was observing on the 1 tick chart which for the purpose of this journal I call the tape. I am typing my exact words as these were real time notes, that I myself will review later today.

 

9:30-9:45

buyers began to move price up however the tape was slow. Buyers just did not seem to have the steam. Sellers came in and moved price down to 2809 and continued to move price down with no opposition from buyers. Buyers then moved price up to 2809 but the tape was very slow. I entered my short at 2807.75 with my stop at 2810. At one point, I do not remember exactly when I start to get very suspicous due to how slow the tape actually was. I have never seen activity this slow at this time of the day so I exited for no other reason than I was very uncomfortable. No gain, no loss.

 

9:45-10:00

Sellers eventually moved price down to the prior days high. Price moved sideways there for a bit. There were a few "harder" spurts down by sellers and hardly any reaction back up. Led me to believe we were going to continue down. Sellers started to increase the pace (still slower then "usual" however)

9:48: price is moving sideways at 2800.50 which is near the midpoint of the range btw 2780 and 2815/20.

9:50: buyers start to come in and push price back up to the prior days high and break the supply line I had drawn. Realistically this should have been my exit.

9:52-53: Buyers seem to be showing strength but the tape stops dead and again sellers come in with a few quick spurts pushing price below the prior day high. The spurts seem more aggressive then the whole upwave that brough price back to where we are. (this could have been a good place for re-entry....hindsight of course)

9:55-56: after the "more aggressive" spurts sellers slowing bring price back to 2800.5 and then the swing low is broken showing.

9:59: Small buying wave but again tape stops dead and resumes downward

 

10:00-10:15

2798 hit, speed picks up as price moves down through the midpoint and approaches low of day.

10:02: buyers move price back up to mp but tape even slower and less intense.

10:04: still at the midpoint and hesitating. Price moves down but then makes a 2nd attempt at the mp, this time it was a bigger upwave.

10:07: again no real intensity from buyers and sellers move price down to hit the low of the day.

10:10: new supply line broken but no real intensity from buyers on the break. Sellers again move price to low of day.

10:13: sellers still in control

 

10:15-10:30

Tape again is very slow.

Buyers push price off the low of day. Prob the second biggest push by buyers so far today.

10:17-18: again tape stops and sellers bring down price but at the moment make a higher low. Tape is making higher lows all the way back up to the swing high. (buyers taking control?)

10:20: swing high not yet broken and then broken

10:21-24: buyers move price back to the midpoint from the low of day. Price is hanging around the mp.

10:28: tape still again very slow however buyers continue to move price up. There seems to be no selling interest at this time.

 

 

That is my notes from today. One point that was very clear today was the fact that price can move on low volume as DB has stated. Tape was slower then I have witnessed before and the volume was low yet price continued its journey to the low of the day.

 

Thanks for reading and please as always any and all comments are welcome. I did not post the tick charts as I feel there would be too many, but if anyone is interested in that I can start to post up those charts that are associated with the times or maybe more "important" times in my notes for a clearer picture. Let me know.

[Niko 10]

 

Thanks for reading and please as always any and all comments are welcome. I did not post the tick charts as I feel there would be too many, but if anyone is interested in that I can start to post up those charts that are associated with the times or maybe more "important" times in my notes for a clearer picture. Let me know.

 

Interesting, you are giving me many ideas for my analysis. When analyzing the NQ i used a 30 tick chart to be able to see the whole day in a single screen, if the day is slow 20 tick will do.

[eminiman414 10]

Interesting, you are giving me many ideas for my analysis. When analyzing the NQ i used a 30 tick chart to be able to see the whole day in a single screen, if the day is slow 20 tick will do.

 

Nice! I'll take a look at those charts. I have been using a 1 range chart also which I sortable use as my "wave chart" it gives me pretty much the whole day and at the open gives me most of the overnight as well. That w the one minute chart gives me what I need for now. I find the 1 tick extremely fascinating and I like the continuous flow. It helps me get into a rthym almost whereas watching any other interval I find myself asking what's going on. I see the ticker stop on the larger interval and wonder well is it really stopped or is price moving sideways. Don't know if that has any relevance to my trading just yet but I just am fascinated by the 1 tick.

[eminiman414 10]

Also I am thinking of getting a tape recorder and instead of furiously hand writting everything just talk out loud and record it. I can write it out later. I dont want to lose focus by writing too much.

[Niko 10]

Also I am thinking of getting a tape recorder and instead of furiously hand writting everything just talk out loud and record it. I can write it out later. I dont want to lose focus by writing too much.

 

Why dont you use your computer recorder, now, i tried it but never have the time to listen to 3 hours of recoding anyway :doh:.

 

I use the windows notepad to write ideas during the day as it does not require as much screen space as word.

[eminiman414 10]

My focus is still on the 2820/15 or so area. Keeping an eye on the sideways movement we are seeing between 2790 and 2809. Potential plays I see are shorting potential R at 2820/15 being aware of what happens if price gets back to 2809 or 2800. Going long at the break/test of 2820/15 area with the possible potential to hit the bottom of the range from 9/14-9/25 at 2832/34. Finally a possible long at 2809 and observing behaviors at 2820/15. Is it safe to assume a slow week given the expiration date?

[DbPhoenix 42]

Go ahead and roll over.

[tupapa 10]

Why so much focus on 2020/15?

[eminiman414 10]

I just rolled over so I am adjusting my levels

[eminiman414 10]

Anyone use Ninjatrader? For some reason after we moved the clocks ahead my replay function has not worked. After I download everything the day usually starts at 12:00am of that day, but now it starts at 11:00pm the night before. I assume bc of the time change? Been trying to find a solution but nothing seems to be working.

[Niko 10]

Anyone use Ninjatrader? For some reason after we moved the clocks ahead my replay function has not worked. After I download everything the day usually starts at 12:00am of that day, but now it starts at 11:00pm the night before. I assume bc of the time change? Been trying to find a solution but nothing seems to be working.

 

Write to the support desk, they are extremely efficient.

[eminiman414 10]

Figured it out. Thanks for the response.

[eminiman414 10]

Quick TIF before bed. Post some more thoughts in the morning. Blues long, shorts red.

[eminiman414 10]

Due to work obligations at the moment I have to move my trading to longer timeframes. I am wondering how this is going to go not seeing the 1t chart. I really enjoy watching price move on it. I know that price moves independent of my chart interval and I have learned a lot from viewing it, but I am wondering how the transition will be. New timeframe will be 15 mins to daily. Feeling a little down because of having to switch as I was really starting to get the hang of it, but gotta pay the bills i suppose. Going to study the trend section of the wyckoff course again, review thalestrader's thread again, as well as all of the EOD analysis in the wyckoff forum.

[eminiman414 10]

A quick note the results I am about to post are not 100% SLA. Just saying that as to not discredit DBs method. It is fantastic and I am forever grateful to have stumbled upon it. With that said...

 

I traded a time period from 1/6-4/23. Some trades were 100% SLA others I looked at re-entering, some at 50% some not at 50%. I took some trades based on SARs. Some trades I gave some room and others played tighter. Basically I did this to get a general idea as to what makes sense and what does not. I traded one contract from 9:30-11:00 for the most part. I pretty much wanted to know how successful or not I would be and in a way possibly have an idea of a worst case scenario trading this method (with the exception of the few things I looked at). All of the trades also were taken without any context behind them.

 

My plan now is to go back and review these days and what I did while adding in the context to give me a better understanding of the successes and failures. I will also review the re-entries and SARs etc. to see what worked out better than the others. From there along with the context I will look at what happened at certain times of the session. I will also look at how many days were range days that could be traded, vs. choppy days vs. trend days and what came before them. I will also look at things like if we open at the high of the day what typically happens? How many times do we reverse vs. BO and continue etc.? Just things like that to give me more of an idea of how the NQ moves.

I know the SLA works I just want to get better at it.

 

# of trades taken: 191

winning points: 593.75

losing points: 244.25

net points: 349.5

winning trades: 89

losing trades: 102

winning percentage: 46.6

losing percentage: 53.4

Avg. winning trade: 6.67

Avg. losing trade: 2.39

Ratio: 2.79

Avg. MFE: 5.81

Avg. MAE: 1.90

 

I will review all of this and then try to characterize this market. I know there is a lot of info posted and a lot of the work is done, but going thru this process, finding things out and learning for myself will be a great help. I also know just adding in the context will increase my winning% etc.

 

Back to work!