Niko´s Log

[Niko 10]

Sellers finally won control of the market, lets see if they can hold it.

 

[Niko 10]

Uptrend holding, sellers could not confirm the LH in the hourly and found S above 62.

 

 

[Niko 10]

Yest. Action.

 

[Niko 10]

NQ before the open:

 

Breaking out of the hinge in the hourly. Next R at 86.

 

 

Uptrend in the 5 min

 

[Niko 10]

Today´s action:

 

[tradingwizzard 10]

the shape there in your last chart looks like a contracting triangle that acts as a reversal pattern and usually that means it is part of a complex correction and most of the times the previous highs in this case are going to be taken.......as it happened here quite nicely

[Niko 10]

After a strong push to the downside that took us out of the TR from the last days, sellers found moderate buying between 3040 and 3050, this slowed the pace of the fall after the close, but the downtrend was still active until this morning when the SL from PDH was broken. Now, after having exited the channel buyers have been able to hold their position and are pushing towards R at 50. We´ll see if they can make it.

 

 

[Niko 10]

I failed to see this morning that we were back at the bottom of the TC, so we might get an interesting REV intraday. Lets see.

 

 

[Niko 10]

Premarket view of the NQ

 

60 Min

 

 

5 min

 

Edited July 22, 2013 by Niko

[Niko 10]

My trading day:

 

 

1. After sellers failed to break below the premarket low and prices congested into a hinge, I waited for the BO of the hinge ant took the first RET (Not visible in the 1 min chart)

 

2. After reaching the MP of the movement from 52 buyers lost interest and sellers managed to set a LH triggering my first exit around the MP and the second one at the break of LSL. As I was at the MP and it looked like it had provided R i decided to take a Short, but then I realized I could be falling into the chop, so I decided to exit as soon as I had a chance, that came at 10:39 and I exited at BE.

 

Market was too slow for my taste, so I decided to call it a day 5 min to 11.

[Niko 10]

NQ Premarket analysis

 

Daily

 

 

60 min

 

 

5 min

 

 

We are coming back from the top of the trading channel (TC) and are making a Lower High (LH) within the 60 min uptrending TC.

 

I have a question though, as we are still in the channel but we have a LH, what is the LOLR?

 

As for strategy:

 

Wait for S to be found within the TC or at an oversold area and find a long entry

Wait for the TC to be broken and a LH to confirm and take a short entry.

[Niko 10]

Today´s action:

 

 

The blue dot signals where I was planning to short, the thing is I was not sure it was a break of what I thought was a TC as it was so close to the DL, so i decided to pass. Bad call :doh:

[Niko 10]

My view before the open, a little late (sorry)

 

60 Min

 

 

5 min

 

[Niko 10]

Today´s action in the NQ.

 

 

1. After a LH at the open it took the short. 1 contract was closed at the break of the first Supply Line (SL), although I hesitated (something to think about). The second contract was exited after what I understood at the time as a Selling Climax (SC) so I decided to close as soon as I got demand and a new high.

 

2. Like prices did not went up but instead I got a new LH i decided to reenter, but then I spotted that 32 could be potential S from yest trading Range so i decided to close the trade as soon as it failed to break through S.

 

After that and the break of SL from the open I thought about taking a long, but the first break above 40 was on very low volume (now I am trying to include vol in the equation) so I decided to pass, then as price descended to 34 I thought about the possibility of being in the chop, and given the time i decided to call it a day.

 

In Couldashouldawoulda (CSW) mode I guess 3 was a valid entry after the BO of 40. And if taken with more than 1 contract, It would have stayed open until the time of this post.

[Niko 10]

My view of the open:

 

 

[Niko 10]

Today´s action:

 

 

1.After finding R at the premarket high sellers pushed had, shorted the first RET visible in the 1 min.

2.Got distracted and missed the break of DL and the fact that there was a HL, so missed a proper exit and a good entry that proved to me a profitable move.

3. I am missing something here, but don't know what it is, did not take the short at 10:12 as I did not trust the LH to be of importance, I guess the increase in volume at my entry bar and the fact that it closed on the top should have been reason enough to exit, but....

4.Shorted the first RET after the BO of what I considered chop, was not a great trade, but at least not a loser.

 

Any comments will be appreciated.

[Niko 10]

My view at the open:

 

60 min

 

 

5 min

 

 

For now I will wait for the extremes.

[Niko 10]

No extremes on friday, no trades.

 

My context for today:

 

60 Min

 

Just can see lots of chop, not sure we are on an uptrend there.

 

 

 

5 min

 

I can see the hinge Db mentions, found R at PDH (Previous Day High) and showing some lame action on the seller side but still going down.

 

 

[Niko 10]

Today´s premarket view:

 

 

 

 

We are at PDH, lets see if buyers can take on sellers and push the trend upwards.

[Niko 10]

Todays´s activity

 

[Niko 10]

I have been in somewhat of a posting sabatical, currently performing backtesting in order to increase the time spent in each trade (ie. Avoid overtrading).

 

I will start posting premarket analisys to keep the discipline.

 

Oil

 

Daily

 

 

60 min

 

 

5 min

 

[Niko 10]

Well well well, the channel actually held, support showed up at 30 and then some news (not sure what) did the trick. Now we broke the supply lines and are above the midpoint of the daily trading range. Looks like a higher low is in the making in the daily. Things might get better for the bulls, lets wait an see.

 

[Niko 10]

We are in a hinge at the daily:

 

 

Overbought in the hourly

 

 

Were a downtrend in the 5 min but at the open it turned into potential chop.

 

 

Lets see...

[Niko 10]

We are leaving the hinge in the daily, the break was to to upside.

 

 

Pretty steep uptrend in the 60 min, but who knows how long we can stay overbought, so until REV signals show up the bias is bullish.

 

 

As parabolic as they come in the 5 min, but there is an area of R around 50-60 so either sellers start pushing or lots of daily buyers will see this as a BO of the TR from July.

 

 

As for things to do in the morning, wait for a REV to try to take the short at the top of the TR (Below 60) or if buyers are committed take the RET after the BO.

[40draws 10]

We are leaving the hinge in the daily, the break was to to upside.

 

Tracking higher out of that hinge. I suppose that the midpoint of the hinge, about 105.50 by eyeballing it, might be a place to keep in mind should price revisit that area in the future. Thanks for posting these charts, Niko!