Niko´s Log

[eminiman414 10]

Interesting strategy. Did you ever look at 1 range bars?

 

What's your exit/stop strategy, if you don't mind sharing of course?

[henry1000 10]

Hello Niko:

 

You have started an interesting thread.

 

Would you mind explaining some of your abbreviations:

 

LSH, DT, RT, MP, TR, DL, TIF analysis, TR, LSH, SL+HL

 

which I found in the below sentences:

 

prices finally broke above the LSH

sellers were waiting and after a DT

I would have taken this short in RT.

After buyers defended the MP

prices climbed to the top of the TR

still in the long term downtrend breaking the DL

not part of the TIF analysis

Buy the BO of the TR

Buy: Break of SL+HL+ Break of LSH around a predetermined level of S/R.

Sell: Break of DL +LH +Break of LSL around a predetermined level of S/R

 

Thanks

 

PS:

I did get some of them.

BO = break out

S/R = support/resistance

HL= higher low

LH = lower high

[Niko 10]

Interesting strategy. Did you ever look at 1 range bars?

 

What's your exit/stop strategy, if you don't mind sharing of course?

 

I actually look at a 30 tick bar (not range) to get a glimpse of what is happening inside the range.

 

The exit is simple, stop at the last swing, and trail 1 tick above or below the last swing, if only one contract, if multiple contracts, one can decide different exits for each contract.

[Niko 10]

Hello Niko:

 

You have started an interesting thread.

 

Would you mind explaining some of your abbreviations:

 

LSH, DT, RT, MP, TR, DL, TIF analysis, TR, LSH, SL+HL

 

which I found in the below sentences:

 

prices finally broke above the LSH

sellers were waiting and after a DT

I would have taken this short in RT.

After buyers defended the MP

prices climbed to the top of the TR

still in the long term downtrend breaking the DL

not part of the TIF analysis

Buy the BO of the TR

Buy: Break of SL+HL+ Break of LSH around a predetermined level of S/R.

Sell: Break of DL +LH +Break of LSL around a predetermined level of S/R

 

Thanks

 

PS:

I did get some of them.

BO = break out

S/R = support/resistance

HL= higher low

LH = lower high

 

Sorry, most of my audience come from the Wyckoff forum where we use those acronyms all the time, so i forgot to translate. That is rude, i apologize.

 

LSH: last swing high

DT: double top

RT: Real time

MP: mid point

TR: trading range

DL,: demand line

TIF analysis, :trading in foresight, comes from the Wyckoff forum, relates to planing your trades before the market opens.

LSL: last swing low

SL: supply line

[eminiman414 10]

So you are using the 30 tick for entries? So the breaks of the sl/dl are on the 30 tick?

 

For a long u look at a break of sl then a higher low and entry would be on the break of the swing high w stop placed under the higher low? You trail the stop under swing lows until stopped out or does a break of a dl come into play as well? You are looking for this around s/r for a higher probability correct? Last question on the original break of the sl does that swing high have to break any previous swing highs before the higher low? Just getting a feel for what u do so I can follow along. I think its an interesting strategy. Thanks

[blocp 10]

hi Niko thanks for sharing your setups, i'm just wondering if this is making trading to mechanical and you would be hitting trades regardless of what traders were doing with regards to pace and effort vs result. i don't mean any offence by this post as you are putting far more effort in to your trading than me at the moment.

[Niko 10]

So you are using the 30 tick for entries? So the breaks of the sl/dl are on the 30 tick?

 

No, i am using only the info provided in the 5 range chart.

 

For a long u look at a break of sl then a higher low and entry would be on the break of the swing high w stop placed under the higher low?

 

Yes

 

You trail the stop under swing lows until stopped out or does a break of a dl come into play as well?

 

Exits have not been tested yet, but for the moment i am testing the break of last swing.

 

You are looking for this around s/r for a higher probability correct?

 

I am testing both, but in theory yes.

 

Last question on the original break of the sl does that swing high have to break any previous swing highs before the higher low?

 

No

[Niko 10]

hi Niko thanks for sharing your setups, i'm just wondering if this is making trading to mechanical and you would be hitting trades regardless of what traders were doing with regards to pace and effort vs result. i don't mean any offence by this post as you are putting far more effort in to your trading than me at the moment.

 

 

You are totally right and non offense is taken, the approach as it is presented lacks something very important, that is context, I guess that is where all the learning comes to kick in and one has to define in RT which setups are backed by the appropriate context and avoid those that are not. But still a long road to get there.

 

As db said there are only three things one can trade a REV a BO and a RET. What i am trying to do is to narrow what i will look for in price at those levels.

[Niko 10]

 

After breaking the trend channel to the upside and exiting the 89.3-91.2 TR we have entered a new congestion area between 91.3 and 92.3 with an MP in 91.8.

 

Buyers have already stalled and have to break the LSH at 91.74 to show they are still committed.

 

If sellers can hold the LSH then a DT or a LH will form and then it will mean that sellers must break below the 91.3 S and then 91.2 in order to go back to the previous TR.

 

Plans:

 

if the DT forms short the BO to the downside of the TR and then wait for a test of the 91.20 S level to see if the trade will fail or if sellers can push harder and reach the bottom of the TR.

 

If the LSL at 91.1 holds and the trend resumes a Buy at S above 91.17 or 33 in the form of a REV would be triggered.

[Niko 10]

 

We are currently within a TR between 68.7 and 85.9, at the time of this post we are around the MP where sellers and buyers are still pushing without having been able to get a following.

 

So far we have a LH, but we still need to break below LSL if sellers are going to commit to reach the bottom of the TR.

 

As for plans:

 

I have not been able to get many good trades around MPs so I thin waiting for a extreme is the best choice, if sellers manage to take the LSL and reach S at 68, wait for a HL in order to define a REV and buy that, or wait for a BO and a LH in order to define a RET and short that.

 

If the LSL holds and buyers can take the LSH and reach R at 85 then wait for a LH in order to short a REV or a HL after a BO in order to buy a RET.

[Niko 10]

During the morning I was focused on oil, I was using the same parameters to define the setup in gold, but there were too many setups showing up, so I guess something is wrong with my parameters. So for now i will stick to oil at least in the log.

 

 

Today was a mess for the setup, in the chop I get entries all the time, and that hurts profitability that today was gross negative 13 ticks, one has to add commissions and slippage and start to cry :crap:.

 

Still have too much work to go through.

[blocp 10]

have you spent much time studying section 7m from the original course as wyckoff suggests

by printing off the charts and hiding the right hand side while reading the text, it's something i have just started to do over the last few weeks, maybe an hour a night and it is really helping with trader behaviour.

[Niko 10]

Blocp, thanks.

 

I have done that, perhaps need to keep on doing it. This pattern is something I found useful in back testing and that I am forward testing in RT and in market replay, I am only posting the RT results.

 

I know that eventually i will have to define when to trade the pattern (definitely not in the chop) and add more patterns in the back testing-forward testing process.

 

I would also need to define if I am going to surf for crums or focus on the bigger picture, something that DB said in the chat today made me think about that.

 

I started posting this for two reasons, add more discipline to the process and get feedback from other traders who might be finding the same issues in their trading.

 

I still have a long way to go, and thank you for your advise and for reading my posts.

[Niko 10]

Given the recent discussion here and in the WF i decided to review my process in the light of what must be done and I found some older Db posts that I think I have to re-read and take into account in order to keep focus on what is important within the W approach. I will paste it here, because I do not want to forget it.

 

I reiterate this is all DB's wisdom and the full text of these post is available in the WF, i just had it pasted in an old word document I had and thought it would be a good idea to share it here.

 

 

...So, we go back to basics, at least as the term applies to Wyckoff.

 

1. What is the market doing, and where is the trader in that market (in this case, the market is in an uptrend, and the trader is faced either with returning to the previous trading range or moving upward into a new one)?

 

2. Where do support and resistance lie?

 

3. What does the trader look for when price approaches those levels?

 

4. How will he manage his trade once he's entered?

 

5. What will the market have to do to show him that he's right?

 

6. What will it have to do to show him that he's wrong?

 

And all of this can be and must be done in advance, in preparation for the coming trading day, every day. If it isn't, then nearly all the trades will seem aggressive, unless the trader waits for confirmation at every turn, which may often mean missing the trade altogether, or having so wide a stop that he exits at the first sign of profit...

 

...One chart is of course insufficient. You'll need something that shows the forest since all of this is based on accurately locating support and resistance. CVB charts and range charts are both good for providing that context. But trading this broad context will lead to a lot of false starts and missed opportunities. When it gets down to actual trading, you'll need something that has a much narrower focus, preferably with separate volume bars (since these show activity). I suggest a time bar of some sort along with a 1-tick chart. The time-bar chart will keep you focused on important swings and pullbacks and congestions as well as the overall trend and prevent you from getting distracted by what can be unimportant activity on the tick chart (unimportant being anything that isn't taking place at an important level or that isn't interfering with the trend). Whether this is 5m, 3m, 1m, or 30s is entirely up to you. The tick chart will show you, trade by trade, what traders are doing, especially and most importantly as and when they approach the levels you've anticipated...

 

...The first step, then, is to gain accuracy in locating these levels (see the first seven posts as well as the linked material).

 

The second step is to determine what one will do if and when price reaches these levels, i.e., go short here, go long there, stop and reverse at this or that level.

 

The third step is to do it.

 

The fourth step is to review the trades and determine what went right and what went wrong so that the following session's trading can be more focused, more relaxed, and, one hopes, more profitable. Without the review, one is more or less running in place.

 

Therefore, if you're shaky on step one, work on step one and leave the rest for now. Do you know how to locate these levels? If not, as stated above, see the first page of the thread. Are you locating them accurately? If not, then review what you did the previous day and show in a new chart where you were right and where you went wrong, then plot the anticipated levels for the following session...

 

[tupapa 10]

Could you link the thread where u found this post?

 

Cheers

[Niko 10]

I think it was in the AMT thread, I am not sure, I made a small word compilation of everything I thougth could be of use for future reference, but I dont recall exactly where i got it.

[Niko 10]

Woke up at the same time than friday, therefore late for today :doh:

 

Only had time to make the TIF analysis on oil, for gold must be here earlier.

 

 

Buyers had just managed to break above the top of the most recent TR and are in the process of testing it as S.

 

The recent downtrend has ended but we are still within a larger downmove and within a huge hinge so chop can be expected.

 

If support within the 60-70 area holds and buyers manage to hold the lows or even mark a HL it would be a chance to join the ride in a RET.

 

If sellers manage to take prices below S and hold the highs or make a lower one then shorting the REV would be the way to go.

Edited March 11, 2013 by Niko

[Niko 10]

Here is the record of today´s action.

 

 

Two interesting things for future reference:

 

1st. I did not take the entry around 8:40 out of a policy of not taking trades outside of the open outcry trading hours, so perhaps I have to add some extra time into my analysis.

 

2nd. I took the longs at 1 and 3, but the fact that we were still in a downtrend could be a circumstance to take into consideration for the improvement of my system. Given what Db said about the character of the market during a trend and its differences with the TRs. As always context is paramount and have to add it into my trading, sooner rather than later.

 

Net results for the day 6 Ticks per contract (Including slippage and commissions)

 

The log is here:

 

Edited March 11, 2013 by Niko

[Niko 10]

An update in the EOD analysis, given what was discussed today in the chat, I will do this every day after the market closes to get a glimpse of the forest before I enter to look for trees.

 

CL

 

 

After going into oversold territory prices are back within the TC (trend channel), actually at the MP of the TC after breaking back above the Top of the TR at 91.

 

This last upswing has not been completed yet and would require a LH and a break of DL and of the LSL in the intraday (in a big interval like 30 to 60 min) to define a short for the long run. Besides even if the conditions are met, we are still inside a hinge so will have to pay attention to the S level at 89, 88 and 86.

 

NQ

 

 

After a failed attempt to cross below the bottom of the TC and S at 2700, buyers retook control of the market, marked a HL and pushed even harder out of the hinge. Now prices are at the MP of the channel and the MP of the aug-sep TR.

 

If prices break 813, buyers might be motivated to take prices towards 867, if 813 keeps on holding then sellers will try to test 759.

 

GC (Ninja GC chart sucks, so I am using as a substitute Spot gold from IBFX)

 

 

After buyers managed to take prices back from the oversold area and above the S level at 553, the market is currently congested within the boundaries of the june 2012 TR, but still within the downtrend TC, the MP of that TR, the MP of the TC and even the closest SL. So the context is still bearish. But the fact that buyers have managed to hold prices above 553 is a reason of concern, because in any moment they could break the current hinge to the Upside trying to make a move towards the MP of the larger interval TR (Green rectangle).

 

An upmove could find R at the MP of the small june TR and later at the top of the TR, by that time we would possibly also be around the top of the TC, so will have to wait and see.

 

If SL is broken, and another HL is set, perhaps a buy could work, but the profit potential would be limited given the fact that we would still be within a TC.

Now, if sellers manage to push below 553, prices could fall to 530. A break below 30 would take us to less populated areas and therefore some trending opportunities.

Edited March 11, 2013 by Niko

[Niko 10]

Prices fond S at the bottom of the TR yesterday around 11:00 and buyers pushed it easily above the top and all the way into the 92.2-93.2 TR.

 

 

We are within an uptrending channel and above the MP, so far we are bullish given the fact that all SLs have been broken the demand line is intact and we are making HHs.

 

Buyers can keep pushing in order to take prices towards the top of the TC and the TR around 93.2, if they manage to break above 92.7 the downtrend line from mid february would be broken, but we have to stay alert for sellers trying to defend the downtrend within the hinge.

 

If buyers give up, and that can happen anywhere given the densely populated R zone a break below the DL would be required in order to motivate a short, that should be accompanied by a LH..

 

Levels to observe (9 removed):

 

• 3.70
  
• 3.20
  
• 3.50
  
• 2.30
  
• 1.70
  
• 1.30
  

 

 

Plans:

 

• Buy a RET around S
  
• Short a REV around R
  

Edited March 12, 2013 by Niko

[Niko 10]

 

We have broken above the Top of the TR after a fakeout to the downside. We are currently within a TC, above the MP and getting close to the top at the same time we are approaching R from the mid feb TR.

 

If we manage to enter the 00-18 TR a long would be the thing to do after a HL around S.

 

If we find R at 00 wait for a retest on a LH in order to define a short, but take into account that we will be possibly still in the TC so the downside potential is limited by the LOLR.

[Niko 10]

Trades for the day. Will post analysis later. In a hurry!

 

 

And the Log:

 

[Niko 10]

EOD:

 

CL

 

Prices skyrocketed today towards the top of the RC and the MP of the oct TR. If sellers manage to halt the advance around 93 then we might get a RET intraday and there we will know if we are going to go back to 91 for a test of S. If 93 is taken out, then will also be the SL and that would mean possible continuation of the up move towards the top of the channel at 95.

 

 

NQ

 

We are still within the chop, it looks like sellers are trying to push down but we are still within the TC (below the MP) and above the SL and the bottom of the TC, so short would not be an alternative for me so far. At least not until S at 759 is taken out. If that does not happen and prices find S at the bottom of the TC that could be an opportunity to reenter the trend.

 

 

GC

 

After coming back inside the TC, prices found S at a LH and finally exited the chop from previous days this morning. We are currently within the boundaries of a TR from Jun, so we will have to be careful not to get excited as we might end up in the chop . If prices manage to hold above the MP (592) then 630 would be the next target here.

 

Edited March 12, 2013 by Niko

[Niko 10]

Yesterday I did not have time to post the aftermarket analysis and that is something I have to work on.

 

As for TIF here it goes:

 

 

We are back inside the TC after yesterday´s rally sellers managed to hold buyers advance below the R level at 93.5 and pushed towards the MP of the TC and the S level around 92.6. At this level buyers started pushing but could not make a HH, sellers pushed down once again but this morning lost control of the market at the MP of the C once again, showing that the trend still is in place, even managed to break above the LSH and the hinge that formed during the last 2 days.

 

At the open we are near R at 93 where buyers stalled.

 

Plan:

 

If price rises above 93.18 buy, if sellers manage to hold R at this level, then sell.

 

If prices stay below 93, that would take us back inside the hinge so would not short unless DL is broken that would also coincide with the MP of the TC. Anyway must be extra careful as a short within the up-trending channel is a trade taken against the LOLR.

 

Remember that Crude Oil Inventories come at 10:30 so before that we could be in the chop.

Edited March 13, 2013 by Niko

[Niko 10]

 

After finding R around 98, sellers have managed to push prices towards the bottom of the TR overnigth, buyers defended the trend but were unable to make a HL, right now we are in the middle of a TR (not visible in the posted chart) that could break either way. If it breaks up it will validate the trend if it breaks down it will break the DL of the TC but S will be waiting at 86 so a short is only an option if prices get back inside the TR from the beginning of the month.

 

If prices hold and mark a HL then a buy would be the way to go.