Niko´s Log

[Niko 10]

Trades for the day:

 

 

Log

 

 

Some comments:

 

1. Avoid taking the long in the Chop wait for a BO. Would have been a good trade.

 

2. Shorted, but prices were not moving as fast as I would like them to, in the tick I could see the congestion clearly, a 10 tick TR and I sold right outside it. I guess as some other members have stated i have to start to take time into account and define a rule for the times at which the market does not move as i expect it soon enough

 

3. Took the long, prices started to move up slowly, but then they finally made a move to the upside. Found R at 40 where sellers pushed hard towards S at 18

 

4. Shorted the RET to R at 18. Market just stopped moving after my entry guess is the fact that price was at the top of the opening TR can be of importance for future reference.Prices finally broke the LSH and I was taken out

 

5. As I was in the chop I waited for a break of the LSH and a HL and also a break of the top of the TR. All of them happened, but then I was too far from the LSL (15 ticks), I guess this trade must have been passed on because of the risk involved (i try not to lose more than 10 ticks per trade)

 

6.Back in the middle of the chop.

 

7. This was definitely a mistake, because there was no setup to trade here just took the short, because I thought the TR was broken and that did not happen. This is unacceptable. :crap:

 

8. This was a reasonable entry within the TR as it was at the bottom near S, the thing I have to work on here is the exit as the Break of LSL is way to much I was still in the Chop. Or perhaps just avoid this trades and focus on BOs and RET after the BOs of these micro TRs.

 

9. This kind of behavior is characteristic of the chop. I get an opposite setup on top of the previous one.

 

10. Just the same as in 9.

 

11. The same as 9 and 10.

 

12. This was the BO trade and it had the LH and the Break of LSL so I took it, I am using the bottom of the TR as the DL here.

 

Well that was the day, kinda sucked! But that is the point of this exercise. Finding out what sucks and what works in RT.

 

So far I have found that the chop is a party pooper, but... I have not devised a way to stay away from it, thinking in possible solutions but still nothing concrete.

[Niko 10]

Db talked about the behavior of Oil outside of my trading hours 9:00 to 12:00. Guess today was not the exception.

 

[Niko 10]

An alternate view of today´s trading.

 

 

Buy the BOs

Sell the REVs

 

Sit on my hands until relevant levels are reached:

 

• MP
  
• Bottom of the TR
  
• Break of trend line.
  

[eminiman414 10]

Have you checked out Thalestrader's thread. I feel some similarities between the both of your methods.

[Niko 10]

Have you checked out Thalestrader's thread. I feel some similarities between the both of your methods.

 

No, but I will.

 

Thank you

[eminiman414 10]

His timeframe is higher, but follows a similar sequence of events. At least from what i've gathered it seems relatively similar.

[Niko 10]

CL

 

 

So far we are bouncing from R around 93, looks like the longer term downtrend is kicking in as buyers were unable to reach a HH yest. We are also at the bottom of the ascending TC and a break below PDL would confirm the break of the DL.

 

If sellers manage to take prices below 90.90 then all yest buyers will become potential sellers and their help could take us within the previous TR between (91.70-90.90)

 

If buyers defend their positions and make a HL then we would be in the chop, and the congestion area will widen between 90.90 and 93.50. That would also mean a new attempt to break the Longer term supply line and a push inside the TC.

 

GC

 

 

After failing to reach the top of the TC buyers lost control and sellers started to push with strength inside the previous TR, although some support was provided at the top, it was insignificant to stop sellers advance.

 

Now, the entry would have been around 86 but I was not there, now wait for a RET towards the top of the TR and catch a REV or wait for prices to hit the bottom and see if a BO is next or a REV to the upside.

[Niko 10]

No trades taken today using the automatic setup. Was into getting the flow of the market, before I end up with an algorithm :haha: again.

 

Anyway, here are the places where entries would have been activated using the setup, if exited on the break of last swing, the result would have been 12 ticks.

 

 

And what if.... I do what I plan on the TIF???

 

Edited March 14, 2013 by Niko

[Niko 10]

 

Prices managed to break above the TR that was containing them yesterday and are currently making HHs on a daily basis.

 

We are back in the TC and the trend seems ok, as we have not reached the tpo of the TR.

 

Next expected level of R is around 94 (Damn Db´s magic hat). We are currently in the price area of a TR from the beginning of Jan between 93 and 95.5, and within it there is another area of congestion between 94 and 95.1.

 

As for things to do, the LOLR is up so longs would be the thing to do, but the entry here was yesterday so if I want to do something I would have to wait for a pullback to Support.

 

No shorts so far.

 

No gold analysis today.

[Niko 10]

Today´s largest swing was to the downside, but as I had stated in my TIF plan the LOLR was pointing upwards, so I decided only to take the longs. As I really did not get any solid S until the top of the previous TR was reached around 18, the result of trying to catch a bottom away from a S was catastrophic, so I will have to define how to sharpen my bottom catcher skills. And that is more backtesting I guess.

 

 

As for the automatic setup...

 

 

 

Did better than me today :haha:

Edited March 15, 2013 by Niko

[Niko 10]

Week´s recount for the surfing setup:

 

 

Gotta keep on testing :missy:

 

I will define the TIF setup in order to be able to test it next week.

[Niko 10]

CL

 

 

We are breaking above the top of the TC, but near the MP of the last downswing, did not realize that in intraday today, I was wondering where R came from and voila!! here it is. Gotta pay more attention to context.

 

Next week we could experience selling, perhaps even motivated by the inability of buyers to break above the MP, that inability was seen today from the open. If prices start their trip to S at 91, they will eventully get back to the TC.

 

If prices break below the MP of oct a short would be the thing to do. Now, a long is risky at this levels as we are overbougth, so in order to enter in that direction a HL would be required.

 

GC

 

 

 

After breaking above R at 85, buyers have not been able to get a following and now they are stuck at the MP of the Jun-Jul TR. If buyers manage to reach new highs, one could expect their attempt to reach the top of the TC. if one is still long, the botom of the RET could be used as a stop, but not see any reason to initiate a position below the LSH around 600.

 

NQ

 

 

We are still within the TR, DL holding and still within the uptrending Channel. Nothing to do so far.

[Niko 10]

Besides waking up earlier I will also be paying more attention to NQ in intraday, the main purpose here is going to be to be able to ride a trend as long as possible during the day, following the plan defined in the TIF analysis. I will still be following oil, gold and nq eod.

 

So I will start with the EOD analysis.

 

Oil:

 

 

So far it looks like buyers are giving up as prices are returning from overbought territory and the MP of the last downswing held. We are still within a huge hinge so no large trends are expected to come out of this until we do not see a BO.

 

The LOLR is still down, if prices keep on falling some S could be expected around 91 and if the channel top is breached then 88 should be interesting.

 

 

Gold

 

 

After a RET buyers manage to push above the MP of the May-Jul TR and are currently holding prices above it after a pullback overnight, if they manage to break above the LSH at 620 then 630 is the next point of interest.

 

NQ:

 

 

We finally breached the bottom of the congestion we were trapped in during last week, we also broke the DL and are currently in oversold territories. Some S could be provided by the shorts at the top of the Jan TR, but if they are unable to hold sellers above 759 then we would be out of the channel and sellers would possibly look for S around 700-80.

 

So far looks like tupapa short was the way to go :cheers:

[Niko 10]

I will replace the GC TIF analysis for the NQ one, as I will be following it on intraday.

 

Oil:

 

 

After buyers were unable to hreak above the downtrend line from the begining of Feb and exiting the bottom of the uptrending channel prices found S around 92 at the bottom of the current TR. So for now we are within the TR and must trade accordingly.

 

• REVs: if 92 is tested and holds then a buy would be the thing to do.
  
• No trades around the MP so no pullback trading.
  
• If prices reach 93.5 and buyers stall, sell a REV at a test of R (I dont thing buyers will make it though.
  
• If sellers push below 92.15 short a RET after the BO.
  

 

NQ

 

 

After sellers failed to breach the top of Jan TR, buyers pushed hard making an almost V Rev and are currently at the MP of Feb TR, if prices hold above the MP then a test of the Top at 780 could be something to look for in order to find an opp to short a REV, but given the weakness shown during the weekend prices could found R before the top, so will have to be in the lookout. Perhaps 770 could be important but I am not sure (Anyone?).

 

If prices start falling again below or at the MP if the downswing it will be a sign of weakness and we will also have a LH to trace a SL, will have to wait and see.

 

If prices fall but fail to breach 750 buy a REV at the test of S would be the way to go.

[Niko 10]

 

Oil TIF:

 

• REVs: if 92 is tested and holds then a buy would be the thing to do.
  
• No trades around the MP so no pullback trading.
  
• If prices reach 93.5 and buyers stall, sell a REV at a test of R (I dont thing buyers will make it though.
  
• If sellers push below 92.15 short a RET after the BO.
  

 

 

This analysis is based on what was written, but it is all CSW.

 

 

 

NQ TIF

 

If prices start falling again below or at the MP if the downswing it will be a sign of weakness and we will also have a LH to trace a SL, will have to wait and see.

 

If prices fall but fail to breach 750 buy a REV at the test of S would be the way to go.

 

NQ CSW

 

[Niko 10]

NQ:

 

 

After yesterday´s strong reversal at the opening, prices are back in the small TR they were last week. It is interesting in HS to note that prices not only bounced at the MP of the last rally but also at the bottom of the TC and at the bottom of the Sep-Nov TR. This tells me that I have to take this sort of stuff into consideration when daytrading.:doh:

 

As for things to do, if one is not in already, and by in i mean long. I would wait for a break above the Sep Oct TR MP around 2813 in order to establish a long.

 

No shorts for now.

 

CL:

 

 

Just when I thought we were going back inside the TC, BAM! a reversal fueled a strong rally yest morning, no we are out of the TC and rising above the MP of the Sep-Oct TR. We are still below the MP of the last downswing, so we must me carefull as we could find R around 94. If that is surpassed then the way to go could be to take a long in a pullback to the bottom of the TC.

 

No shorts for now.

 

GC

 

 

Short term, we are still in the uptrending TC of the last REV that started some weeks ago, after the BO from the base and the subsequent RET, buyers have been trying to make new highs, but they lost momentum at the top of the TR. We are still below the MP of the last downswing, and this rally could go belly up in any moment. Perhaps we are experiencing a small pullback, in which case a new long at the bottom of the TC could be advisable if it holds at the test, if the TC holds then buyers could try to get to the top of the TR from May-Jun around 1630. Anyway, does not look as an easy ride as we are fighting against the longer term downtrend.

[Niko 10]

CL

 

 

Yesterday we finally broke above the SL and today the RET bounced on S at the Top of the TR where it was expected. Now we are nearing the PDH and back in the TC so the odds favor a long. Perhaps a break above PDH could invite a following to this up move, now it is importan to note that PDH is also the MP of the last downswing, and that means we are at an area of strong potential R, if taken out then we would get a nice upside potential towards the top of the TC.

 

It is also interesting to note that last time prices traveled through these lands, there was a strong sell off and not much congestion, this could happen again to the upside, lets wait an see.

 

• As for things to do, buy a RET after the break of PDH.
   
  
• Sell a BO failure of PDH.
  

 

Beware of the chop, after a strong trend day as yest one could expect such a thing to happen.

 

P.S. Today is rollover day, so the precise levels will change, although the overall analysis stays the same.

 

NQ

 

 

After yest strong rally we are back within the TR, buyers actually found R at the MP of the TR, and after sellers managed to push for a LH, buyers defended S at the bottom so we are essentially in a choppy predicament as of now, a long at the bottom of the TR would have been the thing to do, if prices make it there and buyers hold, then take a long but i do not think that is going to happen .

 

If buyers break above the MP I will do nothing, as I do not like the activity around the MPs, If prices reach R at the top short a REV of buy a RET after the BO.

[Niko 10]

NQ:

 

Today I learned several lessons:

 

1. Have to be more aware of MPs within a trend as I often ignore them and that has proven to be a costly habit.

 

2. Take into account REVs from TR MPs during backtesting.

 

3. Find a way to exit a trade that is not performing as expected once I am in, something like a timer (20 secs or something like that), so far I am waiting for price to reach my stop when I am sure that the trade is going to fail.

 

Some comments about today's action are in the chart:

 

 

CL:

 

Two things:

 

Wake up earlier and finish the day later :missy:

 

Edited March 19, 2013 by Niko

[Niko 10]

CL:

 

 

After yesterday´s selloff prices found S at the bottom of the TR and bounced off the DL. Now we are at yest MP as buyers are trying to push towards the top of the TR.

 

• If the MP provides R then a short at a REV could be the way to go.
  
• If prices rise above the MP wait for a REV at the top or a BO.
  
• If prices fall towards the bottom an I am in a short from the MP hold the position if there is not a > 50% pullback from the MP.
  
• If the bottom of the TR or PDL provide strong S then buy the test.
  

 

NQ

 

 

After finding S at the bottom of the TC and the top of a previous TR (see Db´s post), buyers pushed hard, and now are around the MP of the nearest TR pushing up towards the top around 810.

 

• If the uptrend holds and 8010 is taken out then a long after a RET is the way to go.
  
• If the top provides R then short a test.
  

[Niko 10]

Well, after a short unplanned vacation I am back.

 

NQ

 

 

It looks like last week was a continuation of the up trend that has been going on since December although we are stuck around the MP of Aug - Oct TR.

 

If the MP is taken then we will continue to be within the trend and buyers will probably push towards the top of the TR around 860.

 

If Sellers manage to provide R around the MP then they will still have a hard time breaking the trend and a break below the bottom of the TR at 760 would be required in order to change the direction of the market.

 

CL

 

 

Buyers have been pushing hard during the last few days taking prices above the TC and into overbought territory so we have to be watchful at REVs. Right now we are around the Feb TR MP and possibly heading towards that TR top.

 

The EOD bias remains bullish, but no new positions would be taken around these levels.

Edited April 1, 2013 by Niko

[Niko 10]

NQ

 

 

After sellers managed to take prices down yesterday we are still within the boundaries of the TR (Ninja´s historical data looks different from investing.com) and still no LL, so the uptrend still holds. Looks like the MP of the Aug-Oct TR is providing important R. If sellers manage to hold and a LH is achieved then a break of DL would be the trigger to take a short. If buyers manage to break the ascending SL from Jan it would also mark a HH and as we would still be under the MP of the TC a new long could be taken.

 

CL

 

 

After a strong down move yesterday, sellers found S at the bottom of the TR around 96. We are still overbought but the uptrend still holds and no LH is on the way so no short could be taken around these levels.

 

As for a long we are way past that, just wait and see.

[Niko 10]

CL

 

 

A strong recovery came after S was found around SH of march 26th, the HL above the MP of the last swing was a sign of strength, but the lack of FT above PDH is something to watch from now to the open. We could be at the beginning of a new uptrend leg if PDH is broken and the HL holds or we could be entering the chop longer term in which case we would deal with and inside day. After the break below the DL looks like the LOLR is still up, but given the fact that we are overbought, R can come around these levels easily starting with the MP of the TR at 97.6.

 

Things to do:

 

If PDH holds, short a LH in a smaller interval, if PDH is broken take the first RET.

 

NQ

 

 

Buyers stalled around the premarket high yest and a strong sell off came after the PMI data, although the W trader would have taken the long at the REV from R before the data was released (see Dbs post). After the strong down move buyers provided S as expected at the bottom of the TR and around the TL.

 

At the time of this post we are at the Top of the TR where buyers have appeared to be stalling after a strong recovery during the morning.

 

We will have to sit and wait for a REV around R at 807 or a continuation of the upmove above R in which case we will still have plenty of R from previous TRs and PDH.

 

Things to do:

 

Short a REV at R

Go long on a RET at the break of PDH.

[Niko 10]

CL

 

 

After a LH Yesterday prices are at the top of the TC and near S at 96. The LOLR is still up, but the trend can stall at any moment.

 

Longs: Too late

Shorts: Not yet

 

NQ

 

 

After redefining Aug-Sept TR I found that the top of that TR coincides with the R level we have been hitting in the last few weeks. And is precisely the level we are at today. The LOLR is still up as we are within the TC and below the MP.

 

Longs:Buy a breakout of PDH

Short: Not yet

[Niko 10]

CL

 

 

We are currently within a TR above the top of the previous weeks TC. So far sellers have been able to withhold buyers advance and the LH from yesterday´s afternoon is a new sign of weakness.

 

Plan:

 

Buy a REV at the bottom of the TR, sell a RET after the BO of the bottom of the TR.

Buy a REV at the MP of the TR.

Short a REV at the Top of the TR, buy a RET after the BO at the top of the TR.

 

NQ

 

 

After a failed attempt to break above PDH the market made a RET towards the MP of the last upswing. The fact that sellers could not get below the 50% mark and inside the TR area is a sign of strength in a market in which the LOLR still up.

 

Plan:

 

Buy a break of PDH

Buy a REV at PD MP

Buy a REV at PDL

 

Short a REV a PDH

Short a Break below PDL

[Niko 10]

CL

 

 

NQ