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Niko

Niko´s Log

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Trades for the day:

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35335&stc=1&d=1363192516

 

Log

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35336&stc=1&d=1363192516

 

Some comments:

 

1. Avoid taking the long in the Chop wait for a BO. Would have been a good trade.

 

2. Shorted, but prices were not moving as fast as I would like them to, in the tick I could see the congestion clearly, a 10 tick TR and I sold right outside it. I guess as some other members have stated i have to start to take time into account and define a rule for the times at which the market does not move as i expect it soon enough

 

3. Took the long, prices started to move up slowly, but then they finally made a move to the upside. Found R at 40 where sellers pushed hard towards S at 18

 

4. Shorted the RET to R at 18. Market just stopped moving after my entry guess is the fact that price was at the top of the opening TR can be of importance for future reference.Prices finally broke the LSH and I was taken out

 

5. As I was in the chop I waited for a break of the LSH and a HL and also a break of the top of the TR. All of them happened, but then I was too far from the LSL (15 ticks), I guess this trade must have been passed on because of the risk involved (i try not to lose more than 10 ticks per trade)

 

6.Back in the middle of the chop.

 

7. This was definitely a mistake, because there was no setup to trade here just took the short, because I thought the TR was broken and that did not happen. This is unacceptable. :crap:

 

8. This was a reasonable entry within the TR as it was at the bottom near S, the thing I have to work on here is the exit as the Break of LSL is way to much I was still in the Chop. Or perhaps just avoid this trades and focus on BOs and RET after the BOs of these micro TRs.

 

9. This kind of behavior is characteristic of the chop. I get an opposite setup on top of the previous one.

 

10. Just the same as in 9.

 

11. The same as 9 and 10.

 

12. This was the BO trade and it had the LH and the Break of LSL so I took it, I am using the bottom of the TR as the DL here.

 

Well that was the day, kinda sucked! :( But that is the point of this exercise. Finding out what sucks and what works in RT.

 

So far I have found that the chop is a party pooper, but... I have not devised a way to stay away from it, thinking in possible solutions but still nothing concrete.

5aa711ca39235_CL04-13(5Range)13_03_2013.thumb.jpg.9f1e3347bf28a4bc01947ace5bd320d2.jpg

5aa711ca3ca15_Log03-13-13.png.2851feb69edc0432423625ad13f15098.png

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An alternate view of today´s trading.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35338&stc=1&d=1363194550

 

Buy the BOs

Sell the REVs

 

Sit on my hands until relevant levels are reached:

 

  • MP
  • Bottom of the TR
  • Break of trend line.

5aa711ca4f19f_CL04-13(5Range)13_03_2013.thumb.jpg.420c8ffe0ec18f701b6a91303fbe19aa.jpg

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CL

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35352&stc=1&d=1363264673

 

So far we are bouncing from R around 93, looks like the longer term downtrend is kicking in as buyers were unable to reach a HH yest. We are also at the bottom of the ascending TC and a break below PDL would confirm the break of the DL.

 

If sellers manage to take prices below 90.90 then all yest buyers will become potential sellers and their help could take us within the previous TR between (91.70-90.90)

 

If buyers defend their positions and make a HL then we would be in the chop, and the congestion area will widen between 90.90 and 93.50. That would also mean a new attempt to break the Longer term supply line and a push inside the TC.

 

GC

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35352&stc=1&d=1363264673

 

After failing to reach the top of the TC buyers lost control and sellers started to push with strength inside the previous TR, although some support was provided at the top, it was insignificant to stop sellers advance.

 

Now, the entry would have been around 86 but I was not there, now wait for a RET towards the top of the TR and catch a REV or wait for prices to hit the bottom and see if a BO is next or a REV to the upside.

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No trades taken today using the automatic setup. Was into getting the flow of the market, before I end up with an algorithm :haha: again.

 

Anyway, here are the places where entries would have been activated using the setup, if exited on the break of last swing, the result would have been 12 ticks.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35356&stc=1&d=1363280457

 

And what if.... I do what I plan on the TIF???

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35358&stc=1&d=1363280849

5aa711cb25e3b_CL04-13(5Range)14_03_2013.thumb.jpg.aee08b736f5c71b5b2f8ab49d1327021.jpg

5aa711cb30a25_CL04-13(5Range)14_03_20132.thumb.jpg.7519f2b85a7d4e99afea0a7831399880.jpg

Edited by Niko

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attachment.php?attachmentid=35373&stc=1&d=1363351680

 

Prices managed to break above the TR that was containing them yesterday and are currently making HHs on a daily basis.

 

We are back in the TC and the trend seems ok, as we have not reached the tpo of the TR.

 

Next expected level of R is around 94 (Damn Db´s magic hat). We are currently in the price area of a TR from the beginning of Jan between 93 and 95.5, and within it there is another area of congestion between 94 and 95.1.

 

As for things to do, the LOLR is up so longs would be the thing to do, but the entry here was yesterday so if I want to do something I would have to wait for a pullback to Support.

 

No shorts so far.

 

No gold analysis today.

5aa711cb8ea62_CL04-13(60Min)15_03_2013.thumb.jpg.2d6efb489e5250e1fba4877bf53bea6c.jpg

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Today´s largest swing was to the downside, but as I had stated in my TIF plan the LOLR was pointing upwards, so I decided only to take the longs. As I really did not get any solid S until the top of the previous TR was reached around 18, the result of trying to catch a bottom away from a S was catastrophic, so I will have to define how to sharpen my bottom catcher skills. And that is more backtesting I guess.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35379&stc=1&d=1363379482

 

As for the automatic setup...

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35380&stc=1&d=1363379633

 

 

Did better than me today :haha:

5aa711cbabb5c_CL04-13(5Range)15_03_2013.thumb.jpg.41d635053a23e767d48f6d96ff3ffe2e.jpg

5aa711cbb404f_CL04-13(5Range)15_03_20132.thumb.jpg.6026c08aeeadce1e147eda1b7decf66c.jpg

Edited by Niko

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Week´s recount for the surfing setup:

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35381&stc=1&d=1363380235

 

Gotta keep on testing :missy:

 

I will define the TIF setup in order to be able to test it next week.

5aa711cbb67fb_Sinttulo.png.8ca32342a852202e91b37ad99a7e25e3.png

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CL

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35382&stc=1&d=1363382107

 

We are breaking above the top of the TC, but near the MP of the last downswing, did not realize that in intraday today, I was wondering where R came from and voila!! here it is. Gotta pay more attention to context.

 

Next week we could experience selling, perhaps even motivated by the inability of buyers to break above the MP, that inability was seen today from the open. If prices start their trip to S at 91, they will eventully get back to the TC.

 

If prices break below the MP of oct a short would be the thing to do. Now, a long is risky at this levels as we are overbougth, so in order to enter in that direction a HL would be required.

 

GC

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35384&stc=1&d=1363382107

 

 

After breaking above R at 85, buyers have not been able to get a following and now they are stuck at the MP of the Jun-Jul TR. If buyers manage to reach new highs, one could expect their attempt to reach the top of the TC. if one is still long, the botom of the RET could be used as a stop, but not see any reason to initiate a position below the LSH around 600.

 

NQ

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35383&stc=1&d=1363382107

 

We are still within the TR, DL holding and still within the uptrending Channel. Nothing to do so far.

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Besides waking up earlier I will also be paying more attention to NQ in intraday, the main purpose here is going to be to be able to ride a trend as long as possible during the day, following the plan defined in the TIF analysis. I will still be following oil, gold and nq eod.

 

So I will start with the EOD analysis.

 

Oil:

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35413&stc=1&d=1363607812

 

So far it looks like buyers are giving up as prices are returning from overbought territory and the MP of the last downswing held. We are still within a huge hinge so no large trends are expected to come out of this until we do not see a BO.

 

The LOLR is still down, if prices keep on falling some S could be expected around 91 and if the channel top is breached then 88 should be interesting.

 

 

Gold

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35412&stc=1&d=1363607742

 

After a RET buyers manage to push above the MP of the May-Jul TR and are currently holding prices above it after a pullback overnight, if they manage to break above the LSH at 620 then 630 is the next point of interest.

 

NQ:

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35414&stc=1&d=1363607812

 

We finally breached the bottom of the congestion we were trapped in during last week, we also broke the DL and are currently in oversold territories. Some S could be provided by the shorts at the top of the Jan TR, but if they are unable to hold sellers above 759 then we would be out of the channel and sellers would possibly look for S around 700-80.

 

So far looks like tupapa short was the way to go :cheers:

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I will replace the GC TIF analysis for the NQ one, as I will be following it on intraday.

 

Oil:

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35415&stc=1&d=1363610387

 

After buyers were unable to hreak above the downtrend line from the begining of Feb and exiting the bottom of the uptrending channel prices found S around 92 at the bottom of the current TR. So for now we are within the TR and must trade accordingly.

 

  • REVs: if 92 is tested and holds then a buy would be the thing to do.
  • No trades around the MP so no pullback trading.
  • If prices reach 93.5 and buyers stall, sell a REV at a test of R (I dont thing buyers will make it though.
  • If sellers push below 92.15 short a RET after the BO.

 

NQ

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35416&stc=1&d=1363610387

 

After sellers failed to breach the top of Jan TR, buyers pushed hard making an almost V Rev and are currently at the MP of Feb TR, if prices hold above the MP then a test of the Top at 780 could be something to look for in order to find an opp to short a REV, but given the weakness shown during the weekend prices could found R before the top, so will have to be in the lookout. Perhaps 770 could be important but I am not sure (Anyone?).

 

If prices start falling again below or at the MP if the downswing it will be a sign of weakness and we will also have a LH to trace a SL, will have to wait and see.

 

If prices fall but fail to breach 750 buy a REV at the test of S would be the way to go.

5aa711cd01847_CL04-13(60Min)18_03_2013.thumb.jpg.90554ecce873cf0d00b578cc8137acf3.jpg

5aa711cd0a1b4_NQ06-13(60Min)18_03_2013.thumb.jpg.a33d4f55befa03e6b58269571a5c950b.jpg

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Oil TIF:

 

  • REVs: if 92 is tested and holds then a buy would be the thing to do.
  • No trades around the MP so no pullback trading.
  • If prices reach 93.5 and buyers stall, sell a REV at a test of R (I dont thing buyers will make it though.
  • If sellers push below 92.15 short a RET after the BO.

 

 

This analysis is based on what was written, but it is all CSW.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35426&stc=1&d=1363621439

 

 

NQ TIF

 

If prices start falling again below or at the MP if the downswing it will be a sign of weakness and we will also have a LH to trace a SL, will have to wait and see.

 

If prices fall but fail to breach 750 buy a REV at the test of S would be the way to go.

 

NQ CSW

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35432&stc=1&d=1363621909

5aa711cd4908a_CL04-13(5Range)18_03_2013.thumb.jpg.3bb924596cd27e9d427f4bff4ceabd41.jpg

5aa711cd73410_NQ06-13(5Range)18_03_2013.thumb.jpg.0e6e24f285034e84f5f31dc4f95e3bcb.jpg

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NQ:

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35448&stc=1&d=1363691456

 

After yesterday´s strong reversal at the opening, prices are back in the small TR they were last week. It is interesting in HS to note that prices not only bounced at the MP of the last rally but also at the bottom of the TC and at the bottom of the Sep-Nov TR. This tells me that I have to take this sort of stuff into consideration when daytrading.:doh:

 

As for things to do, if one is not in already, and by in i mean long. I would wait for a break above the Sep Oct TR MP around 2813 in order to establish a long.

 

No shorts for now.

 

CL:

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35449&stc=1&d=1363692347

 

Just when I thought we were going back inside the TC, BAM! a reversal fueled a strong rally yest morning, no we are out of the TC and rising above the MP of the Sep-Oct TR. We are still below the MP of the last downswing, so we must me carefull as we could find R around 94. If that is surpassed then the way to go could be to take a long in a pullback to the bottom of the TC.

 

No shorts for now.

 

GC

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35450&stc=1&d=1363692347

 

Short term, we are still in the uptrending TC of the last REV that started some weeks ago, after the BO from the base and the subsequent RET, buyers have been trying to make new highs, but they lost momentum at the top of the TR. We are still below the MP of the last downswing, and this rally could go belly up in any moment. Perhaps we are experiencing a small pullback, in which case a new long at the bottom of the TC could be advisable if it holds at the test, if the TC holds then buyers could try to get to the top of the TR from May-Jun around 1630. Anyway, does not look as an easy ride as we are fighting against the longer term downtrend.

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CL

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35451&stc=1&d=1363693262

 

Yesterday we finally broke above the SL and today the RET bounced on S at the Top of the TR where it was expected. Now we are nearing the PDH and back in the TC so the odds favor a long. Perhaps a break above PDH could invite a following to this up move, now it is importan to note that PDH is also the MP of the last downswing, and that means we are at an area of strong potential R, if taken out then we would get a nice upside potential towards the top of the TC.

 

It is also interesting to note that last time prices traveled through these lands, there was a strong sell off and not much congestion, this could happen again to the upside, lets wait an see.

 

  • As for things to do, buy a RET after the break of PDH.
     
  • Sell a BO failure of PDH.

 

Beware of the chop, after a strong trend day as yest one could expect such a thing to happen.

 

P.S. Today is rollover day, so the precise levels will change, although the overall analysis stays the same.

 

NQ

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35452&stc=1&d=1363694581

 

After yest strong rally we are back within the TR, buyers actually found R at the MP of the TR, and after sellers managed to push for a LH, buyers defended S at the bottom so we are essentially in a choppy predicament as of now, a long at the bottom of the TR would have been the thing to do, if prices make it there and buyers hold, then take a long but i do not think that is going to happen :(.

 

If buyers break above the MP I will do nothing, as I do not like the activity around the MPs, If prices reach R at the top short a REV of buy a RET after the BO.

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NQ:

 

Today I learned several lessons:

 

1. Have to be more aware of MPs within a trend as I often ignore them and that has proven to be a costly habit.

 

2. Take into account REVs from TR MPs during backtesting.

 

3. Find a way to exit a trade that is not performing as expected once I am in, something like a timer (20 secs or something like that), so far I am waiting for price to reach my stop when I am sure that the trade is going to fail.

 

Some comments about today's action are in the chart:

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35459&stc=1&d=1363712970

 

CL:

 

Two things:

 

Wake up earlier and finish the day later :missy:

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35460&stc=1&d=1363713976

5aa711ce86fe8_NQ06-13(1Min)19_03_2013.thumb.jpg.dc14cf08dbba542642c807869f45220c.jpg

5aa711ce90ce1_CL05-13(5Range)19_03_2013.thumb.jpg.752dae5f86792d439dc7f57c076c49c0.jpg

Edited by Niko

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CL:

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35465&stc=1&d=1363784011

 

After yesterday´s selloff prices found S at the bottom of the TR and bounced off the DL. Now we are at yest MP as buyers are trying to push towards the top of the TR.

 

  • If the MP provides R then a short at a REV could be the way to go.
  • If prices rise above the MP wait for a REV at the top or a BO.
  • If prices fall towards the bottom an I am in a short from the MP hold the position if there is not a > 50% pullback from the MP.
  • If the bottom of the TR or PDL provide strong S then buy the test.

 

NQ

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35466&stc=1&d=1363784121

 

After finding S at the bottom of the TC and the top of a previous TR (see Db´s post), buyers pushed hard, and now are around the MP of the nearest TR pushing up towards the top around 810.

 

  • If the uptrend holds and 8010 is taken out then a long after a RET is the way to go.
  • If the top provides R then short a test.

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Well, after a short unplanned vacation I am back.

 

NQ

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35598&stc=1&d=1364818789

 

It looks like last week was a continuation of the up trend that has been going on since December although we are stuck around the MP of Aug - Oct TR.

 

If the MP is taken then we will continue to be within the trend and buyers will probably push towards the top of the TR around 860.

 

If Sellers manage to provide R around the MP then they will still have a hard time breaking the trend and a break below the bottom of the TR at 760 would be required in order to change the direction of the market.

 

CL

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35597&stc=1&d=1364818789

 

Buyers have been pushing hard during the last few days taking prices above the TC and into overbought territory so we have to be watchful at REVs. Right now we are around the Feb TR MP and possibly heading towards that TR top.

 

The EOD bias remains bullish, but no new positions would be taken around these levels.

5aa711d3082ed_CL05-13(Daily)08_02_2012-02_04_2013.thumb.jpg.f387194e977c275c94324efdee44a321.jpg

5aa711d311e1e_NQ06-13(Daily)22_11_2011-02_04_2013.thumb.jpg.433bc105973e6f07ec2eef02a9b8911f.jpg

Edited by Niko

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NQ

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35614&stc=1&d=1364900247

 

After sellers managed to take prices down yesterday we are still within the boundaries of the TR (Ninja´s historical data looks different from investing.com) and still no LL, so the uptrend still holds. Looks like the MP of the Aug-Oct TR is providing important R. If sellers manage to hold and a LH is achieved then a break of DL would be the trigger to take a short. If buyers manage to break the ascending SL from Jan it would also mark a HH and as we would still be under the MP of the TC a new long could be taken.

 

CL

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35615&stc=1&d=1364900247

 

After a strong down move yesterday, sellers found S at the bottom of the TR around 96. We are still overbought but the uptrend still holds and no LH is on the way so no short could be taken around these levels.

 

As for a long we are way past that, just wait and see.

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CL

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35616&stc=1&d=1364901518

 

A strong recovery came after S was found around SH of march 26th, the HL above the MP of the last swing was a sign of strength, but the lack of FT above PDH is something to watch from now to the open. We could be at the beginning of a new uptrend leg if PDH is broken and the HL holds or we could be entering the chop longer term in which case we would deal with and inside day. After the break below the DL looks like the LOLR is still up, but given the fact that we are overbought, R can come around these levels easily starting with the MP of the TR at 97.6.

 

Things to do:

 

If PDH holds, short a LH in a smaller interval, if PDH is broken take the first RET.

 

NQ

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35616&stc=1&d=1364901518

 

Buyers stalled around the premarket high yest and a strong sell off came after the PMI data, although the W trader would have taken the long at the REV from R before the data was released (see Dbs post). After the strong down move buyers provided S as expected at the bottom of the TR and around the TL.

 

At the time of this post we are at the Top of the TR where buyers have appeared to be stalling after a strong recovery during the morning.

 

We will have to sit and wait for a REV around R at 807 or a continuation of the upmove above R in which case we will still have plenty of R from previous TRs and PDH.

 

Things to do:

 

Short a REV at R

Go long on a RET at the break of PDH.

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CL

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35630&stc=1&d=1364986941

 

After a LH Yesterday prices are at the top of the TC and near S at 96. The LOLR is still up, but the trend can stall at any moment.

 

Longs: Too late

Shorts: Not yet

 

NQ

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35631&stc=1&d=1364986941

 

After redefining Aug-Sept TR I found that the top of that TR coincides with the R level we have been hitting in the last few weeks. And is precisely the level we are at today. The LOLR is still up as we are within the TC and below the MP.

 

Longs:Buy a breakout of PDH

Short: Not yet

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CL

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35633&stc=1&d=1364988796

 

We are currently within a TR above the top of the previous weeks TC. So far sellers have been able to withhold buyers advance and the LH from yesterday´s afternoon is a new sign of weakness.

 

Plan:

 

Buy a REV at the bottom of the TR, sell a RET after the BO of the bottom of the TR.

Buy a REV at the MP of the TR.

Short a REV at the Top of the TR, buy a RET after the BO at the top of the TR.

 

NQ

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35634&stc=1&d=1364988796

 

After a failed attempt to break above PDH the market made a RET towards the MP of the last upswing. The fact that sellers could not get below the 50% mark and inside the TR area is a sign of strength in a market in which the LOLR still up.

 

Plan:

 

Buy a break of PDH

Buy a REV at PD MP

Buy a REV at PDL

 

Short a REV a PDH

Short a Break below PDL

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Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.6%, though still far from recovering from Monday’s 13.2% crash—its worst day since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.9%.   In Europe, DAX and FTSE 100 are up more than 1% in opening trade. EU Commission President von der Leyen repeated yesterday that the EU had offered reciprocal zero tariffs on manufactured goods previously and continues to stand by that offer. Others are also trying again to talk to Trump to get some sort of agreement that limits the impact.   Much of the rally appeared to be driven by dip-buying, as well as hopes that the intensifying trade war could still be defused through negotiations.   China Strikes Back: ‘We Will Fight to the End’   Tensions reached a boiling point after Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports unless Beijing rolled back its retaliatory measures by April 8. ‘If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long-term trading abuses by tomorrow... the United States will impose additional tariffs on China of 50%,’ Trump declared on social media.   If implemented, the new tariffs would bring total US duties on Chinese goods to a staggering 124%, factoring in the existing 20%, the 34% recently announced, and the proposed 50%.   In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a stern warning, stating: ‘The US threat to escalate tariffs is a mistake on top of a mistake... If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.’ The ministry also called for equal and respectful dialogue, though signs of compromise on either side remain scarce.   Beijing acted quickly to contain a market fallout. State funds intervened to support equities, and the People’s Bank of China set the yuan fixing at its weakest level since September 2023 to boost export competitiveness. Additionally, five-year interest rate swaps in China fell to their lowest levels since 2020, indicating potential for further monetary easing.   Trump Talks Tough on EU Too   Trump’s hardline approach extended beyond China. Speaking at a press conference, he rejected the European Union’s offer to eliminate tariffs on cars and industrial goods, accusing the bloc of ‘being very bad to us.’ He insisted that Europe would need to source its energy from the US, claiming the US could ‘knock off $350 billion in one week.’   The EU, meanwhile, backed away from a proposed 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey, opting instead for 25% duties on selected US goods in response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs.     Volatile Wall Street Adds to the Drama   Wall Street experienced wild swings on Monday as investors processed the rapidly evolving trade conflict. The S&P 500 briefly fell 4.7% before rebounding 3.4%, nearly erasing its losses in what could have been its biggest one-day jump in years—if it had held. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank by as much as 1,700 points early in the day but later climbed nearly 900 points before closing 349 points lower, down 0.9%. The Nasdaq ended up 0.1%.   The brief rally was fueled by a false rumour that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs—rumours that the White House quickly labelled ‘fake news.’ The market's sharp reaction underscored how desperate investors are for any sign that tensions might ease.   Oil Markets in Focus: Goldman Sachs Revises Forecasts   Crude prices also reflected the uncertainty, with US crude briefly dipping below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021. As of early Tuesday, Brent crude was trading at $64.72, while WTI hovered around $61.26.   Goldman Sachs, in a note dated April 7, lowered its average price forecasts for Brent and WTI through 2025 and 2026, citing mounting recession risks and the potential for higher-than-expected supply from OPEC+.       Under a base-case scenario where the US avoids a recession and tariffs are reduced significantly before the April 9 implementation date, Goldman sees Brent at $62 per barrel and WTI at $58 by December 2025. These figures fall further to $55 and $51, respectively, by the end of 2026. This outlook also assumes moderate output increases from eight OPEC+ countries, with incremental boosts of 130,000–140,000 barrels per day in June and July.   However, should the US slip into a typical recession and OPEC production aligns with the bank’s baseline assumptions, Brent could retreat to $58 by the end of this year and to $50 by December 2026.   In a more bearish scenario involving a global GDP slowdown and no change to OPEC+ output levels, Brent prices might fall to $54 by year-end and $45 by late 2026. The most extreme projection—based on a simultaneous economic downturn and a full reversal of OPEC+ production cuts—would see Brent plunge to below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026.   Goldman noted that oil prices could outperform forecasts significantly if there was a dramatic shift in tariff policy and a surprise in global demand recovery.   Cautious Optimism, But Warnings Persist   With both Washington and Beijing showing no signs of backing down, markets are likely to remain volatile in the days ahead. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming trade meetings and policy decisions, hoping for clarity in what has become one of the most unpredictable trading environments in recent years.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. 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