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Duarte

U.S.Portfolio

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Up until now I have adopted a prudent and defensive investment strategy, but now I´ll search a more aggressive valorization strategy opting for an increased market exposure, in order to catch the benchmark index. At the same time, however, I will take into account the 6-month unfavorable seasonality period, which begins on May 1 and ends on October 31 of the same year, and I will keep my eyes wide open to the possibility of trend reversion in the coming months.

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The following daily chart gives a short-term perspective for Apple Inc: (NASD: AAPL)

 

AAPL rallied since the stock put in a bottom in April 4, 2013. Since then, the stock already climbed 18,32%.

At the moment, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the previous high, and despite the price is still lower than the previous high, 463,53, I think this is a positive sign. Another positive sign is that the exponential moving average 10 green has just crossed with the rise the exponential moving average 50 purple, something that did not happen for a long time.

 

pkbpV9Z.png

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The following table shows the Recently Auxiliary Calculations:

 

Kdja5km.png

 

The following is the market timer portfolio update:

(The chart is updated on a weekly basis.)

 

d7W0tjV.png

 

yvcmE55.png

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The portfolio still remains lower than the benchmark (S&P 500), and is still far from having developed its full potential, but it is now positive. I think more in portfolio result than in trade results. I will buy, sell and adjust the weight of each security in the portfolio on a dynamic basis and over time in the light of the varying market conditions, goals and perception.

That said, next week I will possibly make some changes.

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Monday last week, I had a computer problem. The hard disk stopped working and I took some time to recover the information. Now things are getting back to normal.

 

I made two modifications:

I have changed the calculation of the weighted average price to 3 decimal places. And I stopped provide an approximation of the money used for the trade and started to provide the real money used for the trade. (The money used for the trade is not used for calculating the trade gain or loss.)

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The following is the list of recently closed trades:

 

lJdAKlT.png

 

The following is the list of closed trades:

 

K4mHBrP.png

 

The following is the list of money from dividends:

 

eej6zIN.png

 

The following is the current portfolio:

 

uYBqprT.png

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    • Well said. This principle is highly analogous to trading. Any human can easily click buy or sell when they "feel" that price is about to go up or down. The problem with feeling, commonly referred to as "instinctive" trading, is that it cannot be quantified. And because it cannot be quantified, it cannot be empirically tested. Instinctive trading has the lowest barrier to entry and therefore returns the lowest reward. As this is true for most things in life, this comes as no surprise. Unfortunately, the lowest barrier to entry is attractive to new traders for obvious reasons. This actually applied to me decades ago.🤭   It's only human nature to seek the highest amount of reward in exchange for the lowest amount of work. In fact, I often say that there is massive gray area between efficiency and laziness. Fortunately, losing for a living inspired me to investigate the work of Wall Street quants who refer to us as "fishfood" or "cannonfodder." Although I knew that we as retail traders cannot exploit execution rebates or queues like quants do, I learned that we can engage in automated scalp, swing, and trend trading. The thermonuclear caveat here, is that I had no idea how to write code (or program) trading algorithms. So I gravitated toward interface-based algorithm builders that required no coding knowledge (see human nature, aforementioned). In retrospect, I should never have traded code written by builder software because it's buggy and inefficient. However, my paid subscription to the builder software allowed me to view the underlying source code of the generated trading algo--which was written in MQL language. Due to a lack of customization in the builder software, I inevitably found myself editing the code. This led me to coding research which, in turn, led me to abandoning the builder software and coding custom algo's from scratch. Fast forward to the present, I can now code several trading strategies per day across 2 different platforms. Considering how inefficient manual backtesting is, coding is a huge advantage. When a new trading concept hits me, I can write the algo, backtest it, and optimize it within an hour or so--across multiple exchanges and symbols, and cycle through hundreds of different settings for each input. And then I get pages upon pages of performance metrics with the best settings pre-highlighted. Having said all of this, I am by no means an advanced programmer. IMHO, advanced programmers write API gateways, construct their own custom trading platforms, use high end computers with field programmable gateway array chips, and set up shop in close proximity to the exchanges. In any event, a considerable amount of work is required just to get toward the top of the "fishfood"/"cannonfodder" pool. Another advantage of coding is that it forces me to write trade entry and exit conditions (triggers) in black & white, thereby causing me to think microscopically about my precise trade trigger conditions. For example, I have to decide whether the algo should track the slope, angle, and level of each bar price and indicator to be used. Typing a hard number like 50 degrees of angle into code is a lot different than merely looking at a chart myself and saying, that's close enough.  Code doesn't acknowledge "maybe" nor "feelings." Either the math (code) works (is profitable) or doesn't work (is a loser). It doesn't get angry, sad, nor overly optimistic. And it can trade virtually 24 hours per day, 5 days per week. If you learn to code, you'll eventually reach a point where coding an algo that trades as you intended provides its own sense of accomplishment. Soon after, making money in the market merely becomes a side effect of your new job--coding. This is how I compete, at least for now, in this wide world of trading. I highly recommend it.  
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