U.S.Portfolio

[Duarte 10]

Here is a portfolio update:

 

[Duarte 10]

Things did not go well this week.

I will adjust my strategy.

I try to choose a certain strategy or another depending on how market moves, and the result obtained.

 

The market is still too overbought.

At some point in the future the market will come down.

However, the question remains as to when.

At this moment, I have technical indicators to point in one direction, and others to point in another direction, which means I need to be cautious.

[Duarte 10]

3/27/2013

What is the most common investor mistake? Trading–getting in and getting out at all the wrong times, for all the wrong reasons. You’ve heard it before: Most investors are their own worst enemies. My dad taught me this investing axiom at an early age. In fact, Dalbar Inc. documented it recently in a report available online called “Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior, 2012.” Google it, and you’ll see evidence from a 20-year study.

 

Most mutual fund buyers, for example, badly lag the very funds they buy (and sell) because of bad timing. The average mutual fund holding period for equity or fixed income is only about three years. It’s too short. Moreover, in the last two decades, stupid switching into and out of funds has cost equity fund holders more than four percentage points in annualized returns and bondholders even more–nearly six percentage points.

 

The solution, of course, is to trade less.

VIEWPOINT of Ken Fisher

[Duarte 10]

Here is the current portfolio:

 

 

Click here for complete image:

http://i.imgur.com/1aVA6mc.png

 

A happy Easter to everyone!

[Duarte 10]

I discovered that there was a rounding problem in EXCEL sheet.

 

To calculate the Return I used the following formula: (Quantity*Close Price)-(Money), but to avoid the rounding problem I'm going to use the following formula: (Quantity*Close Price)-(Quantity*Buy Price).

 

The rounding problem has very little effect on portfolio but I have also decided to fix the previous trades.

[Duarte 10]

Here is a current portfolio update:

 

[Duarte 10]

I realized that I get stopped out to many times.

The reason this happened it was because I traded a lot.

I will trade less, if I trade less, I get stopped out less, and my broker will get less commission from me.

At this moment, my technical indicators are mixed, so I'll not risk a lot.

[Duarte 10]

Listed below is one closed trade:

 

[Duarte 10]

Here you can see the portfolio update:

 

 

I now wait for the next buy signal of my technical indicators.

[Duarte 10]

The U.S market remains very strong. Looking at the monthly chart of the S&P 500 Index we note that the S&P 500 is already above the key level of 1575. As I have written before, if it continues above of 1575 in the next two months, that would be very positive in the long term.

However, this period is still one and a half months away.

 

 

 

This week the CONSENSUS Bullish Sentiment Index * was displaying very bullish sentiment with 77%bulls. In rather stark contrast the AAII Investor Sentiment (American Association of Individual Investors) ** reflects very bearish sentiment, with 19,30% bulls and 54% bears, which is surprising since historically, when the market trend is up and new highs are being made, the number of bulls tends to increase rather than decrease.

 

 

These AAII Investor Sentiment numbers are typically seen at market bottoms, not during price advances. The traditional interpretation of sentiment readings is contrarian, meaning that AAII Investor Sentiment is giving a bullish signal, and also suggests that Investors are trying to guess a top. We can also consider that investor confidence is lower than it ought to be in the context of a rally, but this is not the traditional interpretation of sentiment readings.

 

In conclusion, the number of bears suggests that the market will continue to rise but my technical indicators for U.S. market still show mixed signals, so I will not put much money in the stock market. I, however, will follow the market developments next week closely and maybe I will buy one or two shares or ETFs.

 

 

(* Sentiment data is provided courtesy of the Consensus Inc. (Consensus - National Futures and Financial Investment Newspaper). The CONSENSUS Bullish Sentiment of Market Opinion shows the positions and attitudes of professional brokers and advisors. Polling is conducted on Consensus web site with a Thursday cutoff and Friday release. The survey is available on Saturday for free on the Barrons web site at Barron's Market Lab Table - Barrons.com).

 

(** Sentiment data is provided courtesy of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII: The American Association of Individual Investors). Polling is conducted on the AAII web site with a Wednesday cutoff and Thursday release).

[Duarte 10]

I will buy shares of Kilroy Realty: (NYSE: KRC).

 

 

[Duarte 10]

See annotated chart:

 

[Duarte 10]

The following is the current portfolio:

 

[Duarte 10]

The following is the market timer portfolio.

 

[Duarte 10]

The following is the market timer portfolio chart.

The chart is updated on a weekly basis.

 

[Duarte 10]

The following daily chart gives a short-term perspective for the S&P 500.

 

The rally that began off the November low has been persistent.

In the context of a Bull Market, the 50 day moving average often serves as a support and that is what happened last Friday.

If the index falls below the 50 day moving average, this will be interpreted as a negative signal.

 

[Duarte 10]

4 New Buys

 

[Duarte 10]

Annotated charts:

 

 

 

 

[Duarte 10]

The following is the portfolio:

 

[Duarte 10]

4 New Buys and 1 New stop loss order

 

 

Edited April 26, 2013 by Duarte

[Duarte 10]

Annotated charts:

 

 

 

 

[Vinayak 10]

US Initial Jobless Claims Fell 16K Last Week to 339K and the US economy expanded 2.5% in Q1 compared to 3% projected growth.

[Duarte 10]

Listed below is one closed trade:

 

[Duarte 10]

Current portfolio:

[Duarte 10]

CURE reached the stop loss order yesterday.