[es] Samadams' Hurst Cycles Analyses on ES

[samadams 10]

ES trades well using Hurst.

 

SP500 ES Futures March Hurst Cycles Weekly Trade Idea

All Aboard the 18 Month Trough Slide.

The SP500 is ready to move lower into its 18 month and possibly synchronous 54 month trough over the next 30 to 60 days. How did I arrive at this? From counting cycles and observing potential trough locations. Of course the principle of variation is always present so we could see that.

 

Recap of Last Week

The Recent Run Up was a Good Trade that I took as price went through the 10 Day FLD. I did a video about it and showed that with the strategy that I use, "C" category trades are perfectly acceptable to take on the 10 Day FLD. It was profitable. There were no more trades on ES with my system. This view differs from many systems because they probably over trade. There was no more profit to eke out of ES to the upside according to Hurst.

 

Last week's trade

"]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5GGMmlwpMc[/url]

 

This next week's trade

The Next and Only Trade Idea for ES I am Considering: I am buying puts on SPX as it crosses the 5 Day FLD next week.

 

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-eAlVeWfkSQI/UTJOv0qWNmI/AAAAAAAAAsc/yXXe5XrKPHs/s1600/ES-3.2.13-%232.gif

 

This is because:

-we are in the last 80 day cycle of the 40 week cycle

-we are descending into an 18 month trough come mid April we are there

-The peak in ES is expected to be Right Translated or a lower high due to cycle pressure down

-The 5 Day FLD is an action signal that will put me on the smallest wave that will take me to the target of the 18 month trough.

-The FLDs up to the 20 week are cascading and likely to be shot through to the downside based on recent projections.

 

I will be paying close attention and watching Tuesday for a very hard run up trend day, then a break of the 5 Day FLD to enter short.

 

This trade will last 3 to 4 days and I will take profits when the puts return 50%.

 

A Recent Question:

SimpleTrades, a member on tradeking forum asked me if I think ribbon analysis is a form of cyclic analysis, unfortunately, I dont think so. Hurst is the only method that offers forecasting to a precise degree. I think Hurst had it all in the cycles course, and professional Hurst Traders will agree with me there. That being said, I follow and promote a strategy that was created through the spirit of Hurst and nothing else: The FLD trading Strategy. I only follow Hurst or Hurst Traders that have taken his work further. If you're making an investment in your future, make it the best one possible. Start right immediately.

 

Cycles can be observed but to make actionable trading signals on them, you need a consistent strategy. Trading is not simply taking arbitrary trades. The professionals follow a system or strategy that is concrete and devoid of stress. This is the only way to trade IMO, after years of losses and stress. Hurst is not an indicator, it is a system that allows you to be extremely accurate with your trades, and be on the right side of the market a overwhelming amount of time.

Edited March 3, 2013 by samadams

[waveslider 10]

How about an update on your Hurst analysis? What have you learned?