Expectations from Majors

[M.A 10]

Previous week was one of big weeks for fundamental analysts. Bad GDP data from eurozone, G20 meeting and Tokyo's intervention to weaken JPY etc. This thread is about "what can we expect in coming week".

 

Previous week Usd/Jpy managed to end the week with minor gain. In G20 meeting, nations have agreed to avoid any possible currency war. So we may no longer see "intentional" currency weakening to boost growth because if this process of devaluation continues, it will create an environment of competition which will then lead to dangerous results. Coming week will reflect the thoughts of traders on these decisions made by G20. Technically usd/jpy support zone is around 91.95 - 92.15. Resitance zone is 93.75 to 94.00.

 

Like usd/jpy, eur/usd change in open and close price for the week has shows no significant change. But during-the-week movements were unexpected most of the times. In coming week eur/usd will, more likely, be seen in consolidation mode. Technically, support zone is 1.3248 - 1.3265. Resitance zone is 1.3442 - 1.3452.

 

This week, like last, GBP will be facing pressure. Last week, bad retail figures helped gbp/usd to hit 7-month low. There r some news this week too from BOE and we can see expect more downward moves. Technically gbp/usd support zone is around 1.5375 - 1.5390. Resistance Zone is around 1.5645 - 1.5680

[M.A 10]

Eur/Usd rallied due to positive effect of italian elections. Pair has already touched resistance zone of 1.3310. Next resistance zone is around 1.3425 to 1.3430.

 

Usd/Jpy touched 94.50 level in the start of asian session. This gaped move was mainly due to speculation about appointment of new governor of BOJ. usd/jpy couldnt maintian that level and we can see a drop to 93.97 within 2 hours and then to 93.67. Currently market is rangish but favoring bullish move. It may touch 94.70 level and then move to 95.00 in this week.

[M.A 10]

Today's usd/jpu. Usd/jpy started with small bullish move and it looked like it will break resistance zone 92.35 to 92.40 but it failed to do so and broke the support zone of 91.65. It bounced back from the next support zone of 1.30 and till now trading bullish.

Longterm perspective on yen.Traders made a lot of money by expected weakness of JPY against other major currencies. In current month, this pair has managed to maintain a base and now there arent easy trades anymore. I think Yen has already lost much and now it will be going up in coming weeks. I am currently on hold to see a major bounce.

 

Eur/usd has already touched seven week low yesterday. Today it started in upward direction but till now it has made no significant moves. It is still far away from resistance zone of 1.3270 to 1.3280. Technical indicators show more downward movements with a little favor to small bounce backs.

[M.A 10]

ECB king showed no intentions to tighten monetary policy in near future. Eur/usd remained very calm yesterday and showed a little upward movement in the start of today but moving rangish again. It came down by a few pips during news of german jobless claims which were better than previous month but less than expected.

Usd continues its yesterday's rally and steadily appreciating against yen. Resistance zone is seen at 92.65 to 92.70 which if broken will support it to move to next resistance level of 93.60.

Support zone is seen at 91.15 to 91.20. If pair moves downwards and breaks this support zone, pair will then aim for next support zone of 90.15 to 90.20.

[M.A 10]

Nothing unexpected about nominatons of BOJ new governor. Japan's prime minister nominated Kuroda as new governor which will most likely face no resistance from opposition party. So far chart shows bullish trend.

 

Eur/usd have shown significant lows this week and continued this sharp bearish trend today. There were different reasons including weak economic data, italy elections, CPI and and less than expected manufacturing PMI data. Another shock to this pair is Moody's comments on Eurzone sovereign debt markets that it will face more shocks.

[M.A 10]

JPY is expected to weaken in the coming week. Monetary policy statement by BOJ is one of major events in the coming week. Expectations about policy r further easing. Most probably USD/JPY's the current bullish pattern will reverse this week.

 

GBP/USD continues to weaken due to poor economic data. Current weeks look to be the same. Pressure is still there untill investors have something to believe.

 

Market sentiments about Eur/usd r strongly bearish. Main cause of these sentiments is worse economical situation of eurozone and unstable political situation in italy.

Edited March 3, 2013 by M.A

[M.A 10]

As expected and posted by me in previous post, eur/usd remained bearish today and heading for the next support zone of 1.2870 to 1.2880. ECB's meeting later this week will also have high impact on eur. Expectation is major interest rate cut announcement by ECB. Italy's political instability continues with a news about probability of a new technocrat government.

 

usd/jpy, today, moved sidways with minor bearish mood. Bullish sentiments r there which can drive pair to resistance zone of 94.70 to 94.75. Nothing new from BOJ. Kuroda says that his top priority would be to end deflation!!!!.

[M.A 10]

Eur/usd, this week has been moving within 93 pip range so far whereas change in past couple of days has been very insignificant. An important news for today is that a new low for 2013 is set today. Strong bearish sentiments r even more stronger now for both long and short term traders.

[M.A 10]

Eur/Usd is strongly bearish today and is heading for the support zone of 1.2965 to 1.2970. Whereas resistance zone can be seen at 1.3070 to 1.3080.

 

Usd/Jpy remains slightly bullish today but I am expecting bearish trend sooner. It may go down to support zone of 92.95 to 93.00 and a break will take it to 92.00.

[M.A 10]

Today Usd/Jpy started its way upwards especially after BOJ conference. It broke Feb high and later set a new high since august-2009. I am now on hold and looking for its way towards the support zone of 94.20 to 94.25. If broken, it will lead to 93.80.

 

Jpy weakened against usd but eur gained strength against usd. Eur/usd has already accelerated to 1.3107. This steady growth was even stronger during Draghi's press conference. ECB indicated a chance of upside inflation risks.

 

GBP/usd showed mixed movements today. Long term sentiments r bearish.

[M.A 10]

Strong jobs data strengthened usd against all rivals.

Jpy is weakening like rapidly against usd. I was on hold waiting for usd/jpy to come back but Usd/jpy is very near to resistance zone of 96.50 to 96.55. If it is broken, we can see it running towards 96.40. Short and medium term trends remain bullish.

 

Eur/usd's bullish trend reversed today. 132 pips decline = more than 1% decline so far. Major support zone lies at dec-2012 low of around 1.2900.

[M.A 10]

USD/jpy showed bullish strength in past couple of weeks. Trend for swing and shorter term traders has already change. It is heading for 100. Next support zone lies at 97.79 and next will be near 100. Is there any chance of coming back before touching 100? I dun think so.

 

Down trend was predicted for this week and it happened. But during the week, its bullish moves changed opinion of many and in the end strong US jobs data pulled the pair rapidly. Technically, in coming week, bearish trend will continue unless pair shows some good upward moves and break resistance zone of 1.3170 to 1.3175.

[M.A 10]

One of the most important news this week came about an hour ago. UK's industrial production data fell -1.2% against forecast of +0.1%. Even though UK's trade deficit is better than expected but Industrial production had more effect and we can see bearish impact on GBP.

 

Next big event, on March 13, would be industrial production of eurozone which is expected to decline a little. Next news from eur zone will be on 15 march. It will be about EU summit and Italy elections.

 

Important news for U.S will be following.

Then we have U.S retail sales data, on 13 march, which is expected to increase by 0.5%. Next is CSI, on 14 march. Forecast is 78.2 as compared to previous month 77.6. CPI, on 15th march, which is expected to be somewhere near 2.5%.

[M.A 10]

USD/JPY has showed bearish trend since yesterday's morning. But long term traders r strongly hopping for 100 because technically lonterm trend has not changed at all. Both daily and 3-day timeframes r showing strong bullish trend.

 

Eur/usd fell today after comments from ECB that there are inflationary pressures. Dollar gained more strength before italy bond auction.

 

usd remained stronger against many currencies today. gbp also fell significantly (37 pips so far) against usd.

[M.A 10]

Yesterday eur/usd bounced back from the support zone of 1.25 to 1.30. Short term trend has changed significantly but I do not plan on entering a trade. If you r on a trade and want to play safe, try to close it by the end of today. Gap trading will be risky and monday entry depends on whether pair breaks resistance or support zone.

[ntrader 10]

Euro looks very bearish against all majors after the developments in Cyprus, as euro debt crisis starting a new more "violent" phase

[M.A 10]

Weekly change for the recent week has been insignificant as compared to previous strongly bullish week. Even though weekly change is bearish but overall sentiments on trend r still bullish. Pair is expected to rise to next resistance zone of 97.80 to 97.85 which would support it to touch 3-figure. An important news is Kuroda as new governor of BOJ. His comments will have high impact.

 

eur/usd has shown small gain this week. Long term trend remains bearish. Next support zone can be seen at 1.2875-1.2880 which if broken would lead to nov 2012-low. Short trem trend supports bullish pattern and next resistance level is around 1.3134 and then 1.3150. Uncertainty about euro is unlikely to end in near term.

[ntrader 10]

We have to watch 1.2875 on eur/usd but i believe it will not be strong support, i believe 1.27 is the next target

[M.A 10]

Market opened in strong bearish mood for Eur/usd and but stablized after touching 3 month-low. Today's news from Cyprus has done significant damage to eur. Eur dropped more than 1% today (currently 1.16%) and touched support zone and then went back to 1.2976 but looks like it is heading for next support zone.

 

Market opened with large gap and pair fell to as low as 94.09 but after that market has taken no specific direction. There r no major events for today which can affect this pair. Hourly and 15-min charts are in range mode so traders r advised to stay on hold unless they see a clear break.

[M.A 10]

Another loosing day for eur/usd. Housing data of u.s 0.8% which was less than expected 2.8% figure. But it still supported usd against eur because this data was better than same period in past. Cyprus-fear continues to afect eur.

 

usd/jpy is still in rangish mode.

[ntrader 10]

Volatility wiil be very high for the euro the next days. Selling euro above 1.29 as long as there is no solution to Cyprus crisis.

[M.A 10]

Cyprus fears r now cooling down and eur gained some strength against usd. Now next main news is today's economic data release. Euro will mostly be relying on german economic data and if it is really stronger then cyprus will be considered as an isolated problem which is not reflected in other eurozone economies. Eurozone PMI data is expected to rise.

[M.A 10]

Dollar showed mixed movements today against its rivals. In past couple of hours, eur gained strength against usd and it is now trading at 1.2927 (28 pip increase from previous day close).

Long term trend of eur/usd is strongly bearish and atm eur is touching 4-month low level. ECB said that it will stop providing emergency funds to Cyprus from Monday. Declining trend is not only due to Cyprus situation but also due to weak services and manufacturing PMI.

 

Yen is gaining strength against usd as investors hope that Kuroda will take steps to revive economy. Japan's statistics showed that trade deficit is decreased and today's usd/jpy trend is reflecting it.

[M.A 10]

Eur/usd made successful attempt at the end of trading week to recover, a little. Investors r hopeful that Cyprus problem is a minor issue and it will not affect euro and/or global economy. But recovery of eur/usd is ONLY based on "hopes" and true action is yet to be seen.

Technically market is bullish in short term. As u can see in image, investors strongly agree with bullish eur. But dont forget, this is al based on just "hopes". Fundamentals will play an important role in determining the direction of this pair.

[M.A 10]

Upcoming week for usd/jpy is slightly favoring upward trend. Usd/jpy weekly close was a little higher than opening price. We might see gap, in favor of usd/jpy, on Monday. Usd/jpy is more likely to break last week's high.

By looking at rally on last day of the week, eur/usd will more likely to cross 1.3100 level in coming week and if it does, next resistance zone is around 1.3175. If eur/usd successfully breaks this resistance zone, eur/usd will be into longterm bullish mode.