Expectations from Majors

[M.A 10]

BOJ decided to keep aggressive monetary easing policy unchanged. So usd/jpy is up-ish once again but this bullish trend is unlikely to break any major resistance level. Bearish sentiments are high which is why strong fundamentals are unable to take Usd/jpy above monday's high so far.

Existing home sales data will be released in another 10 minutes. It is expected to be better than previous month. It may not affect usd/jpy for long time but it will highly affect eur/usd. Eur/usd has gone to above 1.2950. It is expected to fall from this point.

[M.A 10]

Eur/usd

 

Expectations = Strong Bearish

Result = Bullish

 

Tuesday was expected to be bearish for eur/usd, after bullish monday. Fundamentals were also in support of bear moves. Bad data from eurozone and better than expected data from u.s wasnt enough to pull eur/usd.

On wednesday it went to weekly highs, near 1.3000 and then fell to end the day with significant loss. I was expecting this strong bearish move to be the start of more downward moves.

On thursday we saw another unexpected bullish day. Eurozone fundementals were worse than expected and u.s data was better than expected.

On last day of the week, mixed data from eurozone and better than expected data from u.s (especially core durable goods) proved to be incapable of pulling euro.

 

I may be able to give reasons fundamentally and technically after this all has already happened. But I admit that these results werent expected before they happened.

 

 

USD/JPY

 

Expectations = Strong Bearish or maybe Range-bound

Result = Bearish

 

Expected it to be either bearish or rangish throughout the week. It was expected to be bearish due to strong sentiments and technical pressure. It moved as expected. I wasnt expecting u.s data to have any BIG impact on this pair.

[M.A 10]

eur's recent performance has been very surprising for investors. As I said in my previous post that eur/usd was expected to go down in previous week but it actually went up and ended in positive region.

Weakening of eur was mainly due to rate cut and concerns over eurozone recovery. Next week we have german employement and retail sales figure which could impact the most. Currently it is advised to stay on hold. Recent euro recovery doesnt necessarily mean that it will continue to strengthen next week unless eurozone produces better than expected data.

Start of the next week will be very quiet due to holidays in u.s and u.k.

[M.A 10]

As expected, it has been very quiet day for usd.

Eur/usd's has moved 35 pips since start of the trading this week. Total change at the moment is 1 pip. Expecting slightly better day tomorrow.

 

Usd/jpy continues its bearish trend. Technically, support zone is seen around 100.50.

[M.A 10]

It has been Usd day so far. USD gained strength against counterparts after strong u.s data.

 

Eur/usd has lost 76 pips so far. Currently eur/usd is trading at 1.2855 and it is very likely to touch support level. Support level lies at last weeks' low of 1.2821.

 

Usd is currently trading at 102.20 which is 123 pips higher than today's open price. It is expected to find resistance around 102.58.

[M.A 10]

Dollar remained weaker against most counterparts. Just about an hour ago it started gaining strength against jpy and is trading near, today's high, 101.44.

What to expect next today?

U.S data is to be released in next 2 hours. This data release will determine the trend for the rest of the day. Stay on hold and wait for the data release.

[M.A 10]

Eur/usd showed strong bullish trend on wednesday and thursday but ended the week with minor gains due to strong u.s data which pulled eur back below 1.3000. Eurozone data, mostly, was weaker than expected. Overall bullish trend wasnt expected in the start of the week.

For the next week, technically, support zone is around, 17-may low, 1.2800 and resistance zone is around 1-may high, 1.3240. Short term support level is seen at 1.2955 and then at 1.2938. Short term resistance levels are seen at 1.3009 and then at 1.3026.

 

Usd/jpy is at its lowest level since 10th-may. Support level is seen at psychological level of 100 and we may see some moves against fundamentals and technicals. Usd/jpy took long time to reach 100 and many times it moved against the market flow. Same can happen now. Pair is not expected to cross 100 anytime soon. But if it crosses, it will result in strong bearish move, very similar to the bullish move when it crossed 100.

[M.A 10]

For eur/usd we have following fundamentals which can impact significantly in the coming week.

 

On monday, tomorrow, manufacturing data for Italy and Spain will be released. Then ISM will release manufacturing activity data for U.S.

 

On tuesday U.S will release data on trade balance.

 

On wednesday eurozone will release retail sales data. From U.S, ADP nonfarm employment change figure will be released. Then we have Non-farm productivity, Unit labor costs and ISM Non-manufacturing index releases.

 

On thursday major events are Interest rate decision by eurozone and Initial Jobless claims data from U.S.

 

On friday, U.S will release data on Nonfarm Payrolls and then Unemployment rate.

[M.A 10]

Eurozone manufacturing data came better than expected and U.S data came worse than expected.

Eur/usd gained very little from eurozone data but after u.s manufacturing data, it gained 152 pips in less than 2 hours. Overall it has gained 89 pips today. After reaching today's high, it found resistance at 15-march high of 1.3107. Eur/usd is now consildating.

 

Usd/jpy showed reluctance when it had to go above 100 level in recent past. But it showed no reluctance today when coming back below 100 level. Bad U.S data played key role in today's strong bearish move. Yen is currently trading at 99.17, 125 pips lower than today's open.

Technically, it is expected to find support at 98.58.

[M.A 10]

Corrective moves continued today in the start of session. After better than expected unemplyement change data from spain, eur/usd went 50 pips up. U.S trade data was worse than previous month but better than expected. So it pulled eur/usd back to today's low of 1.3042.

In next half an hour, FOMC member speech is coming. It wil have significant impact on usd.

 

Usd/jpy has consildated around 100 today. It was because of two main reasons. One was corrective move in response to yesterday's quick drop and second was better than expected u.s trade balance data.

[M.A 10]

Eur/usd's response to u.s data was unexpected. ADP non-farm employment data came worse than expected and eur/usd moved 50 pips up within 5 minutes but it was unable to hold this bullish trend and in less than an hour, it was back from where it started its bullish move.

Not only ADP-non farm employment but non-farm productivity and unit labor costs data was also weaker than expected but nothing supported eur/usd to gain any significant higher level.

After crossing 1.3100, it looked like eur/usd will consolidate near 1.3150 but it came back below 1.3100.

 

Usd/jpy responded well to weak u.s data but with delay. It is now trading at, 99.17, 91 pip lower than today's open.

[M.A 10]

Better data from eurozone has taken eur/usd out of the range-bound movements. I am expecting another wave of big move starting in next half an hour. Interest rate data will be released in next half an hour. Then we have ECB press conference, continuing jobless and initial jobless claims, 45 minutes after interest rate decision. All of these are very important.

 

Usd/jpy has moved quietly today so far. Important US data is to be released in next 1 hour which will significantly impact this pair.

[M.A 10]

After a long quiet day, usd managed to gain strength against eur after non-farm payroll data came better than expected. Even though unemployment rate rose a little than expected but payroll data was dominant. After crossing 1.3300 yesterday, eur/usd has shown some range-bound movements for day traders and just couple of hours ago, bearish breakout occurred. It has found support around 1.3200.

 

Usd/jpy is moving down strongly. Better than expected us data pushed it upwards but overall sentiments remains bearish. It has just crossed support zone of 97.45 to 97.50 and we can expect consolidation around this zone.

[M.A 10]

Eur/usd started its session with expected bearish trend. It was expected to find resistance around 1.3160 but it remained well above it. It has moved within 65 pip range so far and overall movements have been rangebound. It is moving upwards now. Resistance is expected at 1.3285.

 

Usd/jpy took most from better NFP data. It has gained more than 130 pips and went as high as 99.29 from 97.71. It was expected to find resistance at 99.47.

[M.A 10]

Usd/jpy has fallen quickly below 96. Pair is holding above two key supports. One is support trend line and second is 15 april low of 95.82. A significant break through these supports will cause a strong bearish trend which could take it to 4-feb low of 92.57.

Technically resistance level is seen near 98.30 and support is seen near 94.92.

[M.A 10]

Dollar has weakened a lot against eur and jpy since the start of this month. Usd/jpy is around 96 from above 100, thanks to BoJ. Usd/jpy's analysis is already presented in previous thread.

 

Eur/usd is touching support trend line. It is well above 100 MA and slightly above 50 MA. Short term sentiments are strongly bearish but longterm trend is expected to be strongly bullish. Since 29-may, eur/usd has shown significant upward moves. In my opinion if it crosses support trend line today and then crosses 1.3247, it will go to 1.3200 and then 1.3173.

[M.A 10]

Yesterday, it looked like usd/jpy will consolidate around above 94.50 for the rest of the week. But today it is targeting 94.00 again. By looking at current situation, it is expected to touch 2-april low of 92.57 on monday. Small retracements are expected but before any major pullback, it will most probably touch 90.90 in next week.

 

Eur/usd is in range-bound mode. Breakout is likely to occur, by looking at current trend, in favor of bulls. Resistance lies near 1.3455 and support lies around 10-june low of 1.3177.

[M.A 10]

This month has been highly volatile as dollar fell aggressively against major counterparts.

 

Technically eur/usd is strongly bullish in short and long term. It is expected to reach resistance level of 1.3407 on monday. Support zone is around 1.3295.

 

Most of the currency traders are targeting usd/jpy which is expected to continue bearish trend. Minor support is seen at 92.57. Ultimate target is 25th feb low of 90.90 as I said in my previous post. We may see some bullish moves after reaching nearing 92.57.

[M.A 10]

What would affect eur/usd and usd/jpy?

This month has been highly volatile so far and coming week will be most volatile week in this month.

 

On monday we have empire state manufacturing data release from U.S. It may not have any big impact for longterm and technicals will continue to play key role on monday. Then we have trade data from Japan which is also expected to have little impact on usd/jpy.

 

Tuesday is expected to be highly volatile. First we have capacity utilization and inustrial production data from Japan. ZEW index from eurozone and germany will be released earlier after it. Then we have building permits, CPI and housing starts data from U.S at noon. These fundamentals will have very high impact so if you r not a "news-trader" then do not trade until mid-day as fundamentals will dominate the first trading session. Lastly we have trade data, near midnight, from Japan.

 

Wednesday will be another big day for U.S. Most of the investors are actually waiting for this day. First we have FOMC speech about interest rate decision and then Bernarke's press conference.

 

On thursday, initial jobless claims data, existing home sales data, manufacturing index, business conditions and fed employment data will be released from U.S.

 

On last day, nothing important from either eurozne or u.s but BoJ's governor Kuroda's speech will have significant impact on usd/jpy.

[M.A 10]

As expected, eur/usd moved quietly today as there were no important events. Hourly chart shows that eur/usd is continuously moving between support and resistance trend line. By looking at chart, it is clear that these range-bound movements may end very soon.

 

Usd/jpy continued corrective move in response to friday's quick fall. Overall trend is not changed and market sentiments remains bearish.

[M.A 10]

After Draghi's speech eur strengthened significantly against major rivals. Eur continued to strengthen after ZEW release from Germany. Eur/usd gained more than 70 pips during this period. After that correctives moves started till u.s data. Core CPI was most important release for today which remains unchanged and came as expected. After U.S data, eur weakened sharply as revised housing data was better.

 

Technically eur/usd is staying above support trend line and this trend is expected to continue till interest rate decision and then Bernarke's speech tomorrow.

 

Usd/jpy started today's session with bullish mood and it continued after u.s data. Major resistance level is 95.81 and usd/jpy has touched 95.77. Next major resistance lies at 97.02.

[M.A 10]

Today Dollar continued to strengthen after yesterday's interest rate decision and bernarke's speech. Even though the fed statement is very similar to the last time's statement but with addition of one statement that there are no downside risks now. Then bernarke said that tapering in asset purchases is possible this year.

 

Eur/usd is just 4 pips above support level of 1.3177. Pressure for corrective move is there retracement can be seen from this point. In 1 and half and hour jobless claims data will be released which play important part in either bounceback or break through major support level of 1.3177. Next support level lies at 1.2945.

 

I was expecting usd/jpy to touch at least 92.57 level this week but fundamentals played their role and pushed the pair up. It has gained more than 300 pips since yesterday. Resistance level lies at 98.46 and then at 99.28

[M.A 10]

Usd continues to strengthen against major counterparts after yesterday;s statement by fed and then by Bernarke.

 

Eur/usd has reached near expected bearish target of 1.3093. We might see some corrective moves and then consolidation above this level. Next major support is around 1.2945 and then at 1.2800.

 

After kuroda's speech and indication that Japan may continue policy easing measures, usd/jpy rose above 98.00. Usd/jpy is now moving above support trend line and just below resistance trend line. Current analysis (as shown in image) shows that retracement is expected but if today it closes above 98.13, we can expect it to go 99.28 on monday. After kuroda's comment I am also in favor of bullish trend in usd/jpy but just to avoid any risk, I will place my entry above 98.13 with tight SL with trailing SL and TP around 99.28.

[M.A 10]

Eur/usd continued to move within tight range favoring slightly bearish trend. Small retracement was expected from 1.3054 support. At this time short term trend is bullish and pair trading around 1.3125. It may go to 1.3150 before reversing back. Target for the week remains 1.2945 as written in previoust post.

[M.A 10]

As expected, eur/usd continues its bearish trend today. Even though U.S gdp data came worse than expected but eur was unable to show any significant trend changing strength against usd. Tomorrow we may see some corrective moves as eur/usd is touchingmoving around minor support of 1.3000.

 

usd/jpy is range bound so far. Day traders can find many opportunities to grab some pips. This range bound movement is expected to continue till the end of this week.