Expectations from Majors

[M.A 10]

As expected and written in my last post, U.S home sales data came worse than expected. Once again, bad day for those hoping level 100:crap:. It went to 99.89 just to tell investors that it could reach 100 but then who would follow in such an exciting way. It is becoming a psychological war and strategy game between usd/jpy and investors. Usd/jpy is winning so far:haha:

 

If we look at upcoming fundamentals, there very low chance of 100 level unless some unexpected better than expected news comes out of U.S, strong enough to take pair to 100 level. Very low probability !!!!

[M.A 10]

Another expected weaker data from U.S which should have pulled usd/jpy but it didnt. Usd/jpy went up.

This was a pure technical game and fundamentals were ruled out of this bullish move. Current move has made it very clear that usd/jpy will, most probably, cross 100 level this week.

 

Eur/usd fell sharply on worse than expected PMI data from germany. Technically this pair is following a bearish trend with small bounce backs at key support levels. Attached image shows those levels in blue colors. Red color represent key resistance levels which could begin a bullish move.

[M.A 10]

Usd/jpy has been very dodging since 8th april when sentiments about usd/jpy, to touch 100 level, starting to become very strong. BoJ's decision to ease monetary policy was considered strong enough to touch 100 level but this prediction failed and technical analysts won who were expecting a long dive before reaching 100.

 

Usd/jpy has already taken a long dive but it is still in no mood to touch 100 level. Instead it is moving near to 100 level and most of the times it has moved against fundamentals. See the image below and u will have an idea of behavior of usd/jpy's movement since 8th april.

[M.A 10]

Eur/usd is continuously facing resistance near 1.3100 level strong bearish move on 19th april. Once again, today, eur/usd failed to reach 1.3100 and came back strongly after u.s jobless claims figure came better than expected. Jobless claims fell by around 16k.

 

Same with the usd/jpy. Fear of "100" continues. It is becoming interesting now. If I display emoticons according to usd/jpy moves. It will be like :- :doh::crap::spam::spam::spam:

[M.A 10]

Usd/jpy has made another :crap::crap::crap:

Usd/jpy has made a dive to 98.23 level and hopes for 100 this week and this month almost died.

Two strong fundamentals coming but not strong enough to take it to 100 level.

[M.A 10]

Disappointing U.S estimated GDP has weakened it against rivals especially against jpy. Difference between highest and lowest point for today is 180 pips so far !!!. Difference between today's opening and current price is around 140 pips.

Technically pair is heading rowards 15th-april and 5th april low of around 95.80 level. Investors (including me) should concentrate more on technical side and less on fundamental side.

[M.A 10]

Dollar remained lower against rivals when trading started on monday. Strong fundamentals from u.s were very successful in offsetting those losses initially made by usd.

 

Technically eur/usd is now expected to go to 1.2956 after touching 1.3100 resistance level. Strong u.s data caused bullish trend to stop. At the same time there is also a minor possibility that pair continues its bullish trend to touch 1.3200 (16-april high). Following chart shows current trend and expected moves.

[M.A 10]

In my previous post, I talked about downward move with a minor possibility of touching 1.3200 level. Today fundamentals supported this "minor expectation". Eur/usd went to 1.3186 from 1.3076 within 2 hours (110 pips).

This move is mainly due to strengthening euro on interest rate cut expectations from ECB. Even though unemployment rate was a little lower than previous month but it was as expected. So it didnt have any bad impact on eur.

 

Eur also remained significantly higher against other rivals today.

[M.A 10]

ADP non-farm payroll data and manufacturing PMI were worse than expected which shows no sign of improvement in u.s economy. Eur continued its bullish strength against usd and touched 9-week high.

We can see bearish trend in eur/usd before fed release. Fed release is less expected to be any hawkish due to current weak numbers. I think fed will acknowledge that situation is "not very fine and not as expected and desired".

[M.A 10]

Draghi's comments once again proved to be very sensitive for eur. In this week, inflation figure came from eurozone, of 1.2%, were well below 2% target. Draghi said that ECB is carefully looking at market conditions and ECB could change interest rate, to negative, for commercial lenders. ECB cut the interest rate from 0.75% to 0.5%. Marginal lending facility is also lowered to 1%.

All these measures will help in recovery of eurozone economy, said Mario Draghi.

 

Today eur weakend significantly against its counterparts. Decline in eur/usd was more than 1%. Technically, pair is likely to find support at 24th-april low of 1.2956. It has already touched the key resistance zone but fundamentals pulled it from there. If eur/usd breaks 1.2956, next target would be 4th-april low of 1.2747.

[M.A 10]

Eur/usd swung both ways this week. It gained more than 100 pips, in a couple of hours, on 30th April and lost more than 150 pips, in a couple of hours, on 2nd May. Technicals have played minor role in these big moves. Short term traders who are keeping their eye over fundamentals will be gaining much more than short term technical traders.

 

Technically eur/usd was unable to break any major support or resistance level this week. Support level for next week lies at 4-april low of 1.2956 and then around 1.2750. Resistance, of 1.3200, was broken this week but any big timeframe candle (5hr+) was not closed above 1.3200. So resistance zone is still around 1.3200. Any significant break will cause strong bullish sentiments. Image in previous post is valid for this post too.

 

This week, Usd/jpy went near 97.00 level but ended week with significant gains. Better than expected non-farm payrolls caused the pair to cross 99.00 level from below 98.00.

[M.A 10]

Technically eur/usd's trend is unclear. We have support and resistance levels but there is an equal chance of touching either of these levels.

BUT if you r planning to get some nice pips, follow monday's fundamentals at 14:00gmt. Draghi's speech, most of the times, has high impact.

[M.A 10]

As expected, Draghi's speech defined eur/usd's direction and it is now touching minor resistance level of 1.3106. By looking at current situation, we may see further move towards 1.2999.

Another reason why I am strongly bearish on eur/usd is because trend line is broken (see image).

[M.A 10]

Eur/usd rose today after better than expected german factory data. I waited for significant break in support trend line but that never happened yesterday and now again, I am waiting for it because price is moving near support trend line. Eur/usd is still range bound

 

Usd/jpy reversed from minor resistance zone of 99.35 to 99.45. Uptrend sentiments remains strong.

[M.A 10]

Strong bullish sentiments in the start of week, for usd/jpy, have changed in favor of bearish sentiments. Usd/jpy has moved all day below resistance trend line (see attached image). We can see a break through support trend line but pair successfully regained its position after a couple of hours. At this time it is trading below 99.00 and bearish trend is expected unless it breaks resistance trend line.

 

Incase of eur/usd, range-bound action continues. Fundamentals pushed it above support trend line. Better than expected german data caused strong rally in this pair. Pair is near resistance zone now and bearish trend is expected tomorrow.

[M.A 10]

Better than expected initial jobless claim data from u.s strengthened usd against rivals.

Nothing new from eur/usd. Range-bound action continues. Fundamentals + Technicals both are not in support of any trend. Fundamental analysts can grab good pips on daily basis.

Technically eur/usd is holding above very strong support line (see attached image). Support trend line is touching at least 7 lows. Price is also touching 100MA. In the recent past, price has crossed 100MA but it wasnt very significant and price retraced.

 

Usd/jpy once again near minor resistance zone of 99.45 - 99.50. Tomorrow Bernarke, Fed chairman, will be speaking and may take this pair to next resistance zone of above 99.90 with minor chance of crossing 100.

[M.A 10]

This week, expectations were met. Usd/jpy's bullish trend was predicted by many but hope for crossing 100 was not much stronger after a dive below 99.00. Initial jobless claims data and then strong sentiments took it above 101.00. Look at the image, how it has been dodgy since the start of april. Almost same was the movement this week but strong sentiments supported it.

 

At last, eur/usd is out of short-term range-bound movements. Support Trend line was broken broken. It is now trading near major resistance level of 1.2956. Next major resistance lies at 4-april low of 1.2747.

[M.A 10]

Eur/usd's fall continue sharply since my previous post yesterday and the pair has reached the expected major resistance zone of 24-th april low (1.2956). It has even crossed this level by 20 pips but closed well above it. I am on hold and on monday I will be wait for any significant directional movement. Technically bearish trend looks more probable but to minimize risk, it is better to hold unless we see a clear downward movement.

 

Usd/jpy remained the hot topic for whole week and especially the last day. One month of collective hopes and strength took it to 100 and this time there was no hesitation at 99.87 or any resistance near 100. This has been the highest point since nov-2008. It is likely to continue bullish trend next week.

[M.A 10]

Market has not been very active today. Movements remain range-bound.

On monday, eur/usd showed reluctance to go on either side with around 50 pips difference in high and low of today. Lowest point for today remains 1.2941 which was hit after strong U.S retail sales data. Overall pattern, technically, remains bearish and usd is likely to go to 1.2747.

Same situation for usd/jpy. Even though bullish movement is more likely to happen but my opinion is to stay on hold and wait for significant breakout.

[M.A 10]

Worse than expected ZEW Index figure has weakened euro significantly. eur/usd fell from 1.3020 to 1.2958 (so far). Earlier today, euro gained strength against usd and rose to 1.3027. After that it continued sideways movement till ZEW release. Overall change for today, so far, is -22 pips. Technically, overall trend for eur/usd remains bearish.

 

Usd/jpy showed mixed movements today. No clear direction is seen this week.

[M.A 10]

Eur/usd followed technical indicator expectations. It has touched 1.2844 level so far. Pair is likely to continue to touch 1.2747. Fundamental factors supported this bearish move. Worse than expected GDP data came from euro zone. Eyes are now on U.S fundamentals.

If U.S data is weaker than expected then pair may consolidate but upward trend is unlikely.

 

Usd/jpy moved as expected. It is out range-bound movement and resumed its upward trend. On hourly chart, pair is touching support trend line (as seen in image). Market sentiments are still bullish so pair is likely to bounce from current level. Upcoming U.S fundamentals will also play an important part in defining direction.

[M.A 10]

Worse than expected data from U.S and better than expected data from eur did not have as high impact as I thought it to have. It moved eur/usd but for very short time and now pair is trading just 10 pip above today's open price. Upward move is limited mainly due to technical bearish pressure.

By looking at the current war between fundamentals and technicals, it is clear that pair will most probably reach 1.2747 before making any significant upward move.

 

There was very high sell pressure on usd/jpy and U.S data helped the pair to reverse. Technically, for short term traders, direction is not very clear so stay on hold.

[M.A 10]

This has been a great week for usd against all rivals. Yesterday Consumer confidence figure was much better than expected which took eur/usd to 1.2800 and usd/jpy to 103.00. Technically eur/usd was expected to fall but usd/jpy was also expected to fall due to corrective move sentiments.

[M.A 10]

Eur/usd fall is expected to continue on the first day of the week. It is expected to reach 1.2747 on monday. There is no important news from either eurozone or u.s on monday so there will be no fundamental factor involved in monday's fall or rise.

 

Usd/jpy is currently trading near resistance trend line (see attached image). Stay on hold and wait for a significant downward fall. When that happens, enter. Use trailing SL. I am expecting bearish trend to be very strong.

Edited May 19, 2013 by M.A
Image

[M.A 10]

Today Usd showed weakness against major counterparts.

Eur/usd is heading towards friday's high. It is expected to move bearish tomorrow, after touching resistance level of 1.2890 (as shown in image).

 

Expected bearish trend in usd/jpy has started today. It went to as low as 102.07. After that it has made some corrective moves. I am expecting it to drop further tomorrow to 16-th may low of 101.83.