Expectations from Majors

[ntrader 10]

No forex trading untill the Eurogroup reach a decision tonight, then it will be great if somebody can jumb in the train because eur/usd will make a huge move with a lot of pips

[M.A 10]

Eur/usd, after a little correction, is more likely to head for next support level of 1.2700. For today it is more likely to cross 1.2820 and for this week, if trend remains bearish, support level zone at 1.2640 to 1.2645. Resistance zone, for the week, lies at 1.3050. Cyprus has pushed eur/usd a lot and there is no sign to fully recover from it in current week.

 

After a strong dip, usd/jpy is now on its way to correction. Hourly chart is indicating a rangish situation. Support zone lies at, just below the today's low so far, 93.50. If it breaks, pair will head towards the next support zone of 92.80. Resistance zone lies at around 94.60.

[M.A 10]

Better than expected data of german retails sales was the main cause of strength in euro today. U.S data was a little weaker but not significant enough to stir in the market.

 

Eur/usd is more likely to continue downward trend because at this time we cannot see any major support from technical or fundamental point of view.

 

Longterm Usd/jpy remains strongly bearish whereas short term trend is slightly favoring bearish. Usd/jpy found good support near 93.90 and next support lies at 93.55 for today.

[M.A 10]

Just a quick news about Gold. back to back quarterly losses. It is second time since 2011.

 

Eur/usd's trend remained strongly upward but volume remained low due to bank holiday. Resistance lies at 1.3050

[M.A 10]

Eur/usd trend, as expected, remained bearish for the current week. Only small "corrective bounce backs" were seen and nothing significant. This continuous bearish pattern is due to continuous bad performance of eurozone. Economic data, this week, was less than expected. Government formation process in Italy is very slow and looks like it is stopped. Cyprus is also at risk of exclusion from eurozone. Next week we can expect another bearish week for eur/usd. Support zone for eur/usd is around 1.2730 to 1.2735. Next support is around 1.2675.

 

 

Weekly trend for usd/jpy remained slightly bearish but sentiments remained bullish. Investors were hopefull that BOJ will be successful in its eforts to weaken jpy. Japan is in no mood of buying foreign bond, Kuroda's statement. Pair will more likely to make more bullish moves next week and first resistance zone lies at around 95.05 to 95.10. Next resistance zone lies at around 96.80 to 96.85.

[M.A 10]

Usd/Jpy is more likely to make bullish moves in the next week but at the same time there r some factors which could make it fall. BOJ meeting on Wednesday and thrusday will play decisive role in defining usd/jpy's trend. Investors have high opes from new BOJ team. It is expected that Boj will increase QE in order to provide more liquidity to economy.

So most of us, thinking about usd/jpy to break resistance zones, might be wrong. Usd/Jpy can go to support levels to shock us.

 

Eur/usd. As said in my previous post, it is more likely to be bearish next week.

[ntrader 10]

Regarding euro, the banking crisis in Cyprus is just the latest indication that the eurozone is not out of the woods when it comes to its debt problems.

[M.A 10]

Eur/usd remained bearish when market opened. This downwards trend was mainly due to Cyprus fears. Now eur/usd trading is 31pips higher than opening price. This gain was due to weaker than expected U.S manufacturing data. Investors are focusing ECB meeting this week where Cyprus questions will more likely to dominate.

[M.A 10]

Eur/usd is on its way to support level of 1.2750. Yesterday pair gained strength due to bad u.s data and easter holidays in europe. Cyprus has decided to ease some Capital controls. It will raise daily transaction from eur 5000 to eur 25000

 

usd/jpy bounced back from 92.57. Technically short term trend is unclear and longterm trend remains bearish. BOJ is likely to take bold stance on monetary policy. Kuroda said that he will do whatever necessary in order to beat deflation.

Edited April 2, 2013 by M.A

[M.A 10]

Eur/Usd started today's session with bearish move but bad U.S data has made it another bullish day. Even though this small bullish reverse pattern has not changed over bearish trend but most fundamental day traders may have benefited from it. Bearish moves this week are mainly due to fundamental reasons. Technicals are not in support of bearish eur/usd.

 

BOJ meeting, tomorrow, will be the primary focus of investors. Investors have high expectations from Kuroda and his comments will have high impact.

 

Usd/jpy was steady int he start of today but usd weakened after bad fundamentals. Current dip might take usd/jpy to support zone of 92.55 to 92.60.

[M.A 10]

We were expecting monetary "easing" from BOJ but they decided surprise everyone. Announced monetary policy is much looser than expected. Kuroda earned unanimous support for his decisions. Asset purchases will not be reduced until 2% inflation target is achieved. Similarly banknote, restricting maximum levelof bond purchases was was dismissed.

 

BOJ's meeting has caused significant impact on jpy. Usd/jpy went to 95.67 from 92.84 within 4 hours.

[M.A 10]

This has been very interesting week for forex market.

Another weakening day for usd, especially against eur, but.............. of course not against jpy. BoJ decided to implement more aggressive easing today.

U.S jobs data report for the feb was very good but U.S jobs data report, for march, came weaker than expected. Eur/usd gained support from this fundamental news and broke 1.3000 level.

[M.A 10]

After BoJ's surprising decisions, usd/jpy moved up sharply this week and closed above 97.50, a new high since june 2009. I can safely assume that 100 will not be a big surprise in short term. If we carefully look at performance of this pair over last 2 days of this week, it has gained more than 5%. It is not a surprising gain if we look at past performance of this pair. Last time when BoJ intervened, in late 2011, we saw a similar move. Similarly currency pair's current 52-week change is around 26%. Even though 5% move in 2 days is big because of "2 days" but not big if we look at overall movement.

[M.A 10]

Eur/usd managed to break through the week's psychological level of 1.3000 but till now, we cannot see any "big" bullish move which could result in change of sentiments from bearish to bullish. Resistance zone of around 1.3050 is not touched yet but the pair is moving near to it. So the sentiments remain bearish.

 

Usd/Jpy. Expect anything upwards atm and usd/jpy will achieve it (be realistic though). Usd/jpy is trading above 99 and has a new 46-month high. Last time it traded above 99 was in May 2009. Investors are eyeing at 100. Technically next resistance zone is around 99.85.

[ntrader 10]

I am still bearish on Euro, i will buy only if it hits 1.3110

[M.A 10]

It looks like Usd/jpy bullish trend is shy to touch 100 level. Pair has spent a lot of time above 99 in previous 3 days but unable to break through resistance zone. This psychological level is taking time. Overall trend for past 3 days has been slightly bullish after strong bullish trend on first day of this week. I am still hopping for 100 level to be broken this week. Most of this hope will depend on upcoming fundamentals from Japan.

Major resistance zone for usd/jpy is still around 99.85

 

 

After positive and better than expected economic data from eurozone, eur/usd is rallying. It has crossed 1.3100 level and heading to first resistance zone of 1.3130.

[M.A 10]

Eur/usd went to 1.3138 which is near to top level of 8th-march as seen in image. We can see small reversals from this level. But overall trend will remain bullish. Reistance zone for today is around 1.3160 to 1.3165. Support zone is around 1.3070 to 1.3075.

 

Usd/jpy has touched important resistance level of 90.87 today but came back from there. I am expecting a corrective move towards 90.00 level or even further before touching 100.

[M.A 10]

Usd/jpy, once again, broke 99.90 resistance but reversed without touching 100. As expected, usd/jpy broke through 98.00 today and now it may be ready to start its journey to 100. Consolida`tion period is more likely to be over. We have some important news coming today. So fundamentals will play an important role today.

 

Edit:- Worse than expected U.S retail sales data will affect pair bullish moves and just minutes after news, we can see sudden bearish move. After this news, hopes for 100 level in current week r over.

Edited April 12, 2013 by M.A
News

[M.A 10]

What can we expect in the coming week from Eur/Usd? Is there any chance of something "big"?

Eur/usd has been in consildation and friday's U.S dissappointing data wasnt favorable enough for the pair to take it to any significant level. Eurozone's better industrial report was a plus point but weaker German wholesale prices data made the impact neutral. Eur/Usd was trapped, in this week, in a small range of around 1.3030 to 1.3140. It was a total disappointment for traders hoping for breakout.

 

Next week U.S CPI data, U.S Initial Jobless claims and German ZEW Economic Sentiment are in focus.

[M.A 10]

Jpy was the prime focus. BoJ's monetary policy program continued to weaken jpy against its counterparts.

 

Following r some important weekly events about jpy.

 

Usd/jpy failed to achieve 100 but made a new 4 year high. Eur/Jpy went to 131.12 which is highest point since january 2010. Gbp/jpy got a new 3.5 yer high.

[M.A 10]

Usd/jpy, once again, moved against the market direction. Usd gained strength against rivals but incase of usd/jpy, usd lost. Trend for today, remains strongly bearish. Usd/jpy almost touched lowest level since 7-april. U.S treasury warned Japan not to devaluate currency on purpose.

Fundamentals are not supporting this pair anymore. Monetary policy easing is an old story. Pair needs something fresh in terms of technical or fundamental.

 

Eur/usd remained bearish except when Eurozone trade balance data came better than expected which eased selling pressure.Pair touched 1.3052 level and then eurozone data pushed it towards 1.3100 level. Overall trend is bearish and another bearish move is expected. Pair has already touched key support level and a break through 1.3153 will open doors to new bearish move.

[M.A 10]

Dollar has made significant strength today aganst most rivals. Usd/Jpy crossed 98.40 level as japan continues to weaken jpy. But all after inventory and fomc speech, pair went touched today's lowest level. Just a few minutes back, Beige Book has pushed it to gain some quick pips.

 

Eur/usd has lost more than 1% today. Pair started in rangish mode but fundamentals played an important part in taking this pair to 1-week low.

[M.A 10]

Eur/usd is my favorite pair but it looks like, I am getting more and more involved in usd/jpy. Maybe at some level, I also want it to touch 100. I think most of the currency traders have similar wish.

Coming back from 99.94 to 95.83.... wasnt it a bad news for most traders who were expecting rocket after 99.87 resistance. ( I wrote 90.87 and 90.00 levels a few days back which was a typo).

 

Is this the correct time to hope for 100? or is it still a NO? Another important question is which factors will support it to take it to 100.

 

First two questions depend on the third one. As in the previous week, we didnt see any solid fundamental support (even though technicals were supporting 100) which pulled pair back to below 96.00. Monetary easing policy program has already started and a major part of this program is purchase foreign bonds. But releases from Japan's finance ministry shows that net value is still in favor of sales instead of purchase. Net bond sales r lower and shows a declining trend since jpy is weakeing. Net value in favor of purchases will strongly support this pair to cross 100.

Another important factor is U.S fundamentals. Last day of the previous week, bad U.S data is considered to be the only reason behind bearish usd/jpy. So investors will be looking at U.S data too.

[M.A 10]

This week has been "failure to touch key levels" week.

Usd/jpy was unable to touch key level of 100.

Eur/usd has been bearish all week but remained successful to hold above key level of 1.3000.

GBP is showing range bound action. It went up on monday and tuesday then came back rapidly on wednesday. It found support and went up again on thursday. It continued to gain strength on friday but came back before touching week-high. Main cause of strong bearish moves is worse than expected economic data from BOE.

 

So what do expect in the coming week?

 

usd/jpy- already told in previous post. It needs solid fundamental support. Reistance level is ......... Forget about it. Psychological level of 100 is more important. Wait for it to break and then hopefully a bullish trend will start which will cross 101.

 

eur/usd- At this time this pair is at 1.3050. Resistance zone is around 1.3100 and then at 1.3230. Support zone is around 1.2975 and then at 1.2915.

 

gbp/usd- GBP may continue to weaken in coming week but it will mainly depend on BOE. More policy easing will definitely weaken gbp and we will see expected decline.

[M.A 10]

A few important fundamentals and possible results in coming week.

 

1- Home sales data from U.S. It is expected to be slightly better than previous data. VERY IMPORTANT, if u r also usd/jpy follower. It will definitely have high impact on usd. If it is better than expected then usd will be bullish.

Existing home sales will be released on monday 3:00pm and new home sales data will be released on tuesday 3:00pm

Previous data for home sales was worse than expected. If u want usd/jpy to cross 100, pray for home sales to be better than expected .

 

2- Core durable goods order. Previous data was worse than expected. Expected is same but actual may be worse. Another bad sign for usd/jpy followers.

 

3- Press conference by BoJ. Lets see what they do.