A Quick Research Quiz - Please Answer

[davidsiegel 10]

Hi. I'm researching decisionmaking, and I'd like you to conduct a poll of your readers and let's see what the results are. Here is the question:

 

Dear Trading Lab rats,

 

I run a workshop for business decisionmakers on cognitive biases and statistical decisionmaking. I'm doing a bit of research here. Please answer yes or no to the following question.

 

I have a bag with 9 white marbles and 1 black marble. I have put $1400 on the table next to the bag. If you give me $100, I will let you draw one marble out of the bag. If it's white, i keep the entire $1500 and you lose $100. If it's black, you keep the entire $1500 and I lose $1400. This happens one time only.

 

Assuming you can afford to lose $100 but that this is real money and you value it, and that you can't do it a second time: do you take this bet?

 

Thank you,

 

David Siegel

[Larry1234 10]

Assuming that I can afford to lose $100 but and that I can't do it a second time then I would rather say that I should take this bet according to probability theory.

 

Expected Loss = $100

Expected Profit = $1400

 

Probability of getting the black marble = 1/10

Expected payout per chance = 1/10 * 1400

= 140

 

Net Gain (Loss) = 140 - 100

= $40

 

Hence, I should go for the bet.

 

I hope its clear.

 

 

Hi. I'm researching decisionmaking, and I'd like you to conduct a poll of your readers and let's see what the results are. Here is the question:

 

Dear Trading Lab rats,

 

I run a workshop for business decisionmakers on cognitive biases and statistical decisionmaking. I'm doing a bit of research here. Please answer yes or no to the following question.

 

I have a bag with 9 white marbles and 1 black marble. I have put $1400 on the table next to the bag. If you give me $100, I will let you draw one marble out of the bag. If it's white, i keep the entire $1500 and you lose $100. If it's black, you keep the entire $1500 and I lose $1400. This happens one time only.

 

Assuming you can afford to lose $100 but that this is real money and you value it, and that you can't do it a second time: do you take this bet?

 

Thank you,

 

David Siegel

[valletta15 10]

No.

 

The odds are terrible for ONE TIME.

 

If you gave me 12 chances, YES