Dons trading journal GBP/USD

[milliard 10]

K.I.S.S Don.

 

If a bunch of excitable Japanese housewives & School cleaners can mop up with their straightforward strategies, then there's hope for all retailers

 

Bloomberg.com: Currencies

[Don4 10]

Cooter, thanks for the info. I will look a little harder into it!

 

Milliard, thanks for the article. (I guess there is hope)

[walterw 10]

Hey walter, How have you been doing my friend? My girls are also 11 .But anyway, I have at one point started looking into futures as another option ,but my understanding is around $25,000 would be a minimum as far as account size. But that is just my understanding from reading a little on it here.

 

Very Fine Don ¡¡ it has been a great weekend... really good times indeed..

 

Don, as Cooter just mentioned you dont need 25k to get started on futures, maybe 3 to 5k can make it, it really depends on the broker... now, should you consider at least 3 months of paper trading before going live... this is a very jealous market you must have it right under your fingertips before going live..

 

cheers Walter.

[Don4 10]

Just wondering is there any free charting(live) for futures or is it all delayed?

[walterw 10]

Just wondering is there any free charting(live) for futures or is it all delayed?

 

free charting live nope... even delayed I dont know what choices there are.. I am actually using trademaven wich has Dom and charts where you can practice placing trades on simulator... it costs only $50 month... I think its the most cheap and functional alternative out there...

 

Ninja is also an alternative, data would be the issue... cheers Walter.

[Don4 10]

Ok,thanks walter!

[cowpip 10]

K.I.S.S Don.

 

Don't underestimate this wisdom from Milliard, Don! I think many people fail specifically because they won't keep things simple - or on the first sign that their strategy isn't working, they change to something else. I'm not implying that you're in this boat. I'm stating it more for those who are following your thread of progression. Those who do the best have a simple strategy and stick with it. That doesn't mean you can't tweak it. Adjusting to the market as it changes is a necessity. But simple things are far easier to adjust.

[Don4 10]

Thanks cowpip for the reinforcement, and for everyone who has posted here trying to keep me focused. Everything that im going through now, i new was going to happen as i mentioned in my first few posts of the journal. The drawdowns are sometimes hard to handle but I must keep pushing forward for the full 6 months. To see where i stand with my system and to know what tweaking needs to be done. So again thanks to all who have posted for keeping me focused on my goals and forcing me to stick to my plan.

[Don4 10]

There was no trades today!

[PYenner 10]

Don

 

Forgive me if I am way out of line here.

I was following Cable at the time some of your sells went bad.

The thought I had then was tweeking up your trigger price might have avoided the bad ones but i'm only guessing at an answer.

 

Of course it might cost you just as many good trades and it might reduce the optimum tp and screw up the whole thing. So the next thought was have two trading plans, one for a rising market as in past months and a second one with wider trigger price for the flat or uncertain market we have now.

 

As you say you are getting a lot right, the thing is to "mine" the recent failed trades for differences from normal trades. Losing trades are the best to examine for any improvements that might be made.

 

They are just stray thoughts, apologies if they seem shallow or off target.

[Don4 10]

Ok,my order was triggerd looking for a tp of 1.9893.

[Don4 10]

Don

 

Forgive me if I am way out of line here.

I was following Cable at the time some of your sells went bad.

The thought I had then was tweeking up your trigger price might have avoided the bad ones but i'm only guessing at an answer.

 

Of course it might cost you just as many good trades and it might reduce the optimum tp and screw up the whole thing. So the next thought was have two trading plans, one for a rising market as in past months and a second one with wider trigger price for the flat or uncertain market we have now.

 

As you say you are getting a lot right, the thing is to "mine" the recent failed trades for differences from normal trades. Losing trades are the best to examine for any improvements that might be made.

 

They are just stray thoughts, apologies if they seem shallow or off target.

 

Thanks Pyenner for the reply, What i found out in backtesting was my first initial plan is where im at now, I tried many different approaches but none seemed to help long term.(Widen stops,trailing stops,move stops to breakeven after 10,20,30,etc..pips) no mater what i did nothing seemed to help. But what ive been noticing is that about 85% of the time when my orders are triggered there is a retracement of some sort. So for now im working on a way to capitalize on that. I know never add to a losing position. But since i use such hard stops i never consider it a losing trade until stops are hit.

[Don4 10]

Still in the trade i posted earlier with a TP at 1.9893,Its been one of those days. Price has played around my TP for the last 7 hours comming within 3 pips a few times, these are the tuff ones that closing out would seem to be the best thing to do but by doing that i would be going against my rules. So ill just have to wait and see what happens.

[PYenner 10]

Yes, also noticed the frequent retracements but I have not been following cable long enough to know what is normal with it. This is the first week I have traded cable, and I'm also long, but I need more experience with it before I could be any help. I hope you find some clue there that turns out to be useful. Eliminating just a few of the losing trades would make a big difference. Yes, easier said than done but that is where the payoff should be.

[Don4 10]

Ok yesterdays tp hit, now im short looking for tp of 1.9830!

[PYenner 10]

If your prices are optimum then sma or weighted average might be tried as a secondary filter for distinquishing better trades from worse trades.

Don't trust statistical indicators, prefer straight prices, but if you turn over enough stones maybe something comes up. Just searching for ideas.

[Don4 10]

Ok stopped out pretty early on this one, Honestly pyenner for this system there are no indacators I really dont even need a chart to trade it.

[PYenner 10]

Thats probably why it works.

To clarify,

If price above sma then accept long trigger signals only.

If price below sma then accept short trigger signals only.

Maybe a second sort of trigger signal to test against your main trigger signal.

Dunno.

[torero 10]

Still in the trade i posted earlier with a TP at 1.9893,Its been one of those days. Price has played around my TP for the last 7 hours comming within 3 pips a few times, these are the tuff ones that closing out would seem to be the best thing to do but by doing that i would be going against my rules. So ill just have to wait and see what happens.

 

I think it's ok to manually exit if it's only a few pips away for swing trades and doing it only from time to time. If you can modify your rules to allow you only 1 exit and only if it's few ticks away, that would be sufficient. You're really well, keep it up!

[Don4 10]

I think it's ok to manually exit if it's only a few pips away for swing trades and doing it only from time to time. If you can modify your rules to allow you only 1 exit and only if it's few ticks away, that would be sufficient. You're really well, keep it up!

 

 

Hey torero nice to here from you again! Yea, i tell you this is one of the hardest parts for me.There are many times im in profit that ends up being a losing trade,I can deal with those without much emotions.But its the ones that are real close that take their effect on me. There are 2 ways that I look at it if I have taken those close trades that never happened my drawdowns would probably be kept in check (a little better). But then again this is very common occurance to approach my tp's pull back then trigger them. But yea i do understand what your saying and its something i need to look into.I just dont know how it will affect the longterm profitability.

[Don4 10]

Thats probably why it works.

To clarify,

If price above sma then accept long trigger signals only.

If price below sma then accept short trigger signals only.

Maybe a second sort of trigger signal to test against your main trigger signal.

Dunno.

 

I really dont think it would work, I believe it would only hurt the way my system uses probabilities. But i will look at it,thanks pyenner

[MidKnight 12]

Hi Don,

 

One possible idea, is that you have a unit of time that triggers a different way to handle your exits. Do you have any stats to do with trade length? Perhaps you find that the ones that end up coming close to profit target and then reversing for a full stop out are the ones that at their maximum in your favor are the longest in time. If that is the case, then one might consider adding a time switch that allows you to scale out, and possibly adjust stop loss levels. Or keep it where it is and take the full hit on the reduced position. I can't come up with too many ideas without seeing statistics.

 

Best regards,

MK

[Don4 10]

Hi Don,

 

One possible idea, is that you have a unit of time that triggers a different way to handle your exits. Do you have any stats to do with trade length? Perhaps you find that the ones that end up coming close to profit target and then reversing for a full stop out are the ones that at their maximum in your favor are the longest in time. If that is the case, then one might consider adding a time switch that allows you to scale out, and possibly adjust stop loss levels. Or keep it where it is and take the full hit on the reduced position. I can't come up with too many ideas without seeing statistics.

 

Best regards,

MK

 

 

Midnight thats a pretty interesting idea, But what information would be needed. The duration of how long each trade lasted (total) Or how long they was in profit. Exactly what type of statistics are needed. Thanks for your help MK.

[MidKnight 12]

G'day Don,

 

I'd maybe start by examining more about the scenario you previously mentioned is annoying. How close do they come to your target. How much time has elapsed on them. Maybe even add some context, like how are they in relation to the daily chart. Basically just hunting for common data. Won't be 100% of course, but might be enough to smooth out the curve a little. Just some ideas...All the best on your journey, things are generally going well for you.

 

Out of curiosity, have things become more difficult since we stopped trending so hard (on the daily chart)?

 

My best regards,

MK

[Don4 10]

G'day Don,

 

I'd maybe start by examining more about the scenario you previously mentioned is annoying. How close do they come to your target. How much time has elapsed on them. Maybe even add some context, like how are they in relation to the daily chart. Basically just hunting for common data. Won't be 100% of course, but might be enough to smooth out the curve a little. Just some ideas...All the best on your journey, things are generally going well for you.

 

Out of curiosity, have things become more difficult since we stopped trending so hard (on the daily chart)?

 

My best regards,

MK

 

 

Thanks mk Ill look into what you mentioned above. It may take some time but may be well worth my efforts. As far as being difficult (trending). Well i guess i am in a drawdown. But it never really matterd much if we were trending or ranging(as far as backtesting) I guess during trending conditions I would have a larger target but since everything is based on % it didnt really matter wether i was shooting for 100 pips or 20pips.