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ARTjoMS

Random Entry System

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It is natural to assume that random entry system wirh risk:reward ratio of 1:1 would be BE. (I am sure that someone has proved it)

 

And so I was wondering... should a random entry system with higher reward:risk ratious be +EV? (Since price tends to trend)

 

Assuming that some risk:rewards (in exact pips) perfrom better.. how could these results be used further to realistically give some edge?

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Why would you want to use a random entry system?

 

Also, don't forget about commissions, slippage, taxes, etc. You need to take these into account.

Edited by Perrin

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Why would you want to use a random entry system?

 

Also, don't forget about commissions, slippage, taxes, etc. You need to take these into account.

 

Where did I say i want to use random entry system? If you read carefully my question ( ''how could these results be used further to realistically give some edge?'') then you probably would not ask such retorick questions or mention kindergarden remindments of slippage.

 

Sorry for being harsh, but i have encountered issue like this countless times and it is really annoying that people don't reead what you have written... or they simply have no deduction skills.. or my english is so bad that they don't understand a word.

 

It is ok to stay away, but why waste our time?

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It is natural to assume that a random entry system with risk:reward ratio of 1:1 would be BE. (I am sure that someone has proved it)

 

Maybe, but I have yet to see the proof. For all the assertions about this I have yet to see one solid piece of evidence. I have yet to see a completely random test and not some test that claims to be random with out exposing all the parameters so that folks can duplicate the results. Just because someone says its true doesn't mean it is. Or a better interpretation would be that just because someone that is selling something says its true doesn't mean it is.

 

And so I was wondering... should a random entry system with higher reward:risk ratios be +BE? (Since price tends to trend)

 

Assuming that some risk:rewards (in exact pips) perform better.. how could these results be used further to realistically give some edge?

 

They can't and here is why. Arbitrary risk to reward is only 1 part of a much larger equation. It is important without question. However if you are randomly or intentionally buying at bad prices you will get stopped out. If you are buying at bad prices and you think the solution is to use a bigger stop out then you will fail. It is far better to have solid risk management in place then to try to figure out the reward. In reality you need to figure out your risk before you can even begin with figuring out how much you can profit. Also you can only manage your risk you can NEVER manage profit. How close is your entry to the bottom?

 

Also you have to consider the market you are trading. If you tried to use a larger stop out and larger profit target then what the market you are trading will allow then chances are you will get stopped. Assuming your reward is higher then your risk. Or you will simply have to exit at a loss.

 

I can give many examples of how the question is a fallacy in further posts.

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Also the edge has been and will always be knowing where shorts and longs are trapped. Using correlated markets and some sort of bid vs ask software is the most efficient way to do that. There are other ways with certain patterns that will accomplish it however they are much less intuitive. Markets move because of short, shorter, or shorter then you term traders exiting positions. Being able to recognize where short term traders are going to enter or are entering and where they will most likely exit is the supreme advantage a trader has. Knowing that info is the edge and is the only edge and the only edge that counts. This will only cease to be the edge when and if short term traders stop trading like short term traders.

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It is natural to assume that random entry system wirh risk:reward ratio of 1:1 would be BE. (I am sure that someone has proved it)

 

And so I was wondering... should a random entry system with higher reward:risk ratious be +EV? (Since price tends to trend)

 

Assuming that some risk:rewards (in exact pips) perfrom better.. how could these results be used further to realistically give some edge?

 

It can only be proved on paper and has been proved under concept of probability. Even flipping a coin will not produce 1:1 result in reality. In forex, u cannot assume a breakeven by entering randomly. Here is a detailed explanation of WHY.

Flipping a coin is the best example to understand it (assuming that it produces 1:1). There is no trend type factor in flipping a coin. There is no fundamental or technical analysis (there is said to be one type of technical analysis to judge it which is taken from Cricket) required to judge the result of coin flipped. These reasons make coin-flipping purely random.

Whereas market movements r based on real factors. Even if u ignore the spreads and other costs (coz they can be adjusted by adjusting TP and SL), result can never be 1:1.

 

I think best way is to make a simple program to trade randomly. Review results, adjust settings and re-test and then all this cycle again. If by adjusting results, u get close to what u r trying to acheive (which is not possible in my opinion), then u r doing right thing.

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Here is something I have really never been able to grasp about questions like this......

 

I always assume that ALL trades are 50-50 ........ The price can only go 1 of 2 ways

 

1) it either goes down and hits your stop

 

2) It goes up and hits your target.

 

Yes price can go sideways but I do not count that as it will eventually get to one of the above mentioned.......

 

Even if you have this "great system" that shows when a set up happens it will work 90% of the time .....it still always has a 50-50 shot once the trade is placed.

 

Just like the coin flip is always 50-50 , yes it can land on heads/tails 10 times in a row but when the flip actually happens it is still always 50-50

 

If someone could explain otherwise to me I would appreciate it.

 

Thanks

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Just like the coin flip is always 50-50 , yes it can land on heads/tails 10 times in a row but when the flip actually happens it is still always 50-50

 

If someone could explain otherwise to me I would appreciate it.

 

Thanks

 

Guys here are questioning things that are mathematically self evident. If on big sample size with R:R 1:1 one still doesn't get BE (EV=0) then he siply has wrong code.

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Guys here are questioning things that are mathematically self evident. If on big sample size with R:R 1:1 one still doesn't get BE (EV=0) then he siply has wrong code.

 

:confused::confused: what?

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My idea was that from results obtained one could draw some conclusions of how trending the market is on particular time (pip) frame.

 

Just maybe... it migh give some edge in deciding if it is worth to keep profits ride or close the trade.

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Here is something I have really never been able to grasp about questions like this......

 

I always assume that ALL trades are 50-50 ........ The price can only go 1 of 2 ways

 

1) it either goes down and hits your stop

 

2) It goes up and hits your target.

What you mean is The trades you take can only go 1 of 2 ways. Price can go up then down then up again before it hits your stop.

So 3) price goes close to your stop with in 1 tick then goes in the direction you thought.

4) it goes with in 1 tick of your target and then goes after your stop out.

If you choose to pull the trade at 1 tick within your target either way it effects the 50-50 thinking.

 

Yes price can go sideways but I do not count that as it will eventually get to one of the above mentioned.......

Eventually. If and only if you have stops and targets that are reasonable for that market. Again its how you trade price not price itself. What about my profit target on the spoo at 3000? Or my target on the 6E at 4.9? I still have my first target in apple 1200 just like the folks on TV said and my next target is at 3000. And my stop out for all 3 is 0.

Even if you have this "great system" that shows when a set up happens it will work 90% of the time .....it still always has a 50-50 shot once the trade is placed.

 

Just like the coin flip is always 50-50 , yes it can land on heads/tails 10 times in a row but when the flip actually happens it is still always 50-50

 

If someone could explain otherwise to me I would appreciate it.

 

Thanks

*This example is pertaining to futures, forex, and other types of markets such as these. I can't fully comment on baseball cards or comic books since I don't trade or collect either of those.*

I have seen this with gurus like the famous FT71. This is not true. Parts of it are true. How you trade makes the percentage. Your trades are 50-50. Not mine. There are fundamental facts about price and markets that make this thinking not true. When you have enough collected short term traders collected in 1 direction and their stops are triggered then 100% of the time price moves in that direction. Not 50% not 90% not 99% but 100%. How far and for how long? It depends on a ton of factors. But suffice it to say you can get the direction 100% of the time when stops are triggered. What is the direction a month from now? Don't know. My answer is what are the positions of retail traders a month from now? But you said you could predict the direction 100% of the time!!! No. Make no mistake you can predict the direction at the time the stops are hit and a little before. An hour before there is no way of knowing and there is no way to trade it an hour after. So your trades are 100% winners then? No. Because you can still be too slow to get on and miss it or you can still hold it for too long thus turning a winner into a loser. And also there is no way to know with certainty where it could end up and how long it will take to get there. It could go 2 ticks then come back to your entry and even stop out before it goes to your target. So trades can have 100% chance of winning in certain situations but anyone can ruin a perfectly good trade. Just because you can get the direction right doesn't mean that you know the direction 100% of the time. You can for sure know the direction after enough short term traders have been collected in 1 direction and their stops are hit.

 

50-50 is relative because there is actually more then 2 possibilities of what can happen in a trade. Some clarification could be maybe someone has small profit targets and takes profit right away. Or maybe some one has a target of 3000 in the S&P and a stop out of 700 and is still in since last May. Again maybe your trades are 50-50.

 

Your stops and targets and how you exercise them determines your percentage. If you don't move a stop or a target then yes its going to be 50-50. A 90% system may just mean they are using a large stop and a small profit for targets. These are the reasons for the percentage. Not the market. The applications of trades to the market make the percentage. I have had lots of trades where I was in a winning trade and it wasn't to my target and I pulled it. It never went to my target and would of turned into a loser. In this situation it defies the 50-50 ideas. I kept a winner from turning into a loser and with out adding or averaging. How do you quantify that? Yes if I traded with a 50-50 mindset and wasn't dynamic and flexible in the market then yes it would of been a loser. However it wasn't and the money went into my account.

 

Ok so you could say that every trade is a winner or a loser. And maybe that was the point all along. However what about a scratch trade? Winner or loser? What about a trade that has some winners and a loser? Do you account for a stop moved to your entry after you take some off or do you keep it at its original place? Are those winners or losers?

 

In closing you can increase your odd of winning or losing by how you exit the trade. When you flip a coin you have to wait for the coin to settle and accept the results. In trading its not that way. You can actually cut the trade when it is at any point of winning and its counted as winning. The equivalent to this with a coin is being able to see what the side of the coin is while its spinning and push it over with your finger.

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Guys here are questioning things that are mathematically self evident. If on big sample size with R:R 1:1 one still doesn't get BE (EV=0) then he siply has wrong code.

 

Hi ARTjoMS,

 

Ignoring costs such as spread, slippage, commissions etc, then this is correct, yes.

 

If you run lots of tests of this using market data, however, the results won't be distributed in the same way as they would for a coin-toss as quickly. In other words, you'll need a larger sample size to start seeing the bell curve, and you'll see larger than expected 'runs' in the data than you would expect with a coin-toss. I can't tell you why.

 

For this reason, I have a theory (which I have never gotten around to testing because it is not likely to be practically trade-able) that with a position-sizing algo that shuts off to drawdown more readily than it opens up to run-up of the equity curve, such a random entry system that produces profitable runs could be long term profitable.

 

Unfortunately the other possibility from your opening post isn't viable: as you decrease the risk/reward ratio the frequency with which you are stopped out will increase to keep things at break-even over larger sample sizes. Conversely, if you increase the risk/reward ratio the opposite will happen over the long run - you'll be stopped out less frequently (higher win rate), but your losses will be correspondingly larger, leading to breakeven with a large sample size.

 

Note that in both these instances, although the end results will be similar to the the 1:1 ratio results, the equity curve would be far less smooth. Theoretically, this increases risk of ruin and lends itself less to successful position sizing, which tends to thrive on consistency of returns.

 

I hope that answers your question.

 

BlueHorseshoe

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My idea was that from results obtained one could draw some conclusions of how trending the market is on particular time (pip) frame.

 

Just maybe... it might give some edge in deciding if it is worth to [let] profits ride or close the trade.

 

How about this. What causes trending? Time? Price? The moon and stars? Any idea? If the market is trending up what should you do? Buy it? Look for places to sell it? Any idea?

 

What causes trending to stop? Time? Price? Your stop out?

 

Is a market trending on a 5 minute time frame? Is a market trending only on a 30 minute?

 

So it went up 100 pips in 10 minutes. Do you buy it? Do you look to sell it? Is it going to go up another 100 pips? Any ideas?

 

Do you have something that will allow you to get on the trend in the first place? Start with this first. Where you get in is important in that it gives you a better chance to win. But getting in is not the only thing. Forex is the worst market for any entry.

 

If you don't have anything to get you into the trend what are you using to fade it? Can you fade it or do you need it to be trending to make money?

 

The only way to know if its worth it to keep it on or take it off is to bet more. You bet more. Once you put more on you can take them off and let others ride. Its simple if you have more on. So the answer to the edge you are looking for is BET MORE. Put more contracts on.

 

What do you do once you have done that? Cut your winners quick and cut your losers even quicker. +25, +50, +75, +100 for 4 contracts. 8 would be 2x+25, 2x+50, 2X+75, 2x+100. But what if it goes 600 pips? My response is, does it normally go 600 pips or did it do that this time? What about the times it goes 100 pips and turns around and comes back? But I use a 300 pip stop out and I cant take +25. Well then change your stop to -50 or -25 instead.

 

Taking big swinging d!#* trades is sexy. That is the way retail traders with small accounts trade and think. You get good and stay in this game by taking smaller bites with more on. Not taking 600 pips with 1 or 2 contracts.

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In other words, you'll need a larger sample size to start seeing the bell curve, and you'll see larger than expected 'runs' in the data than you would expect with a coin-toss. I can't tell you why.

 

This is interesting, but very hard to believe. In a random entry system you enter short with 50% chance and enter long with other 50% chance, so you can imagine trades as a series of determined outcomes and your result depends entirely of whether system has picked buy or sell, but .. since it is effectively 50-50 I don't see how there can be longer runs than in coin flipping situation.

 

Unfortunately the other possibility from your opening post isn't viable: as you decrease the risk/reward ratio the frequency with which you are stopped out will increase to keep things at break-even over larger sample sizes. Conversely, if you increase the risk/reward ratio the opposite will happen over the long run - you'll be stopped out less frequently (higher win rate), but your losses will be correspondingly larger, leading to breakeven with a large sample size.

 

Are you saying that a random entry system with various rick:reward ratious will still be BE in a long run? Now I don't know how close these numbers are in long run... but that shouldn't be true. You can imagine that as a combination of two 1:1 trades. You win 1st one and then risk 2:2.. so 1:3 in total.

 

If both of them were 50-50 trades then 1:3 trade would be BE, but since 2nd trade contains information that market has moved in one direction it affects probability of outcome. It should still be close to 50-50, but not exactly 50-50.

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What you mean is The trades you take can only go 1 of 2 ways. Price can go up then down then up again before it hits your stop.

So 3) price goes close to your stop with in 1 tick then goes in the direction you thought.

4) it goes with in 1 tick of your target and then goes after your stop out.

If you choose to pull the trade at 1 tick within your target either way it effects the 50-50 thinking.

 

 

Eventually. If and only if you have stops and targets that are reasonable for that market. Again its how you trade price not price itself. What about my profit target on the spoo at 3000? Or my target on the 6E at 4.9? I still have my first target in apple 1200 just like the folks on TV said and my next target is at 3000. And my stop out for all 3 is 0.

 

*This example is pertaining to futures, forex, and other types of markets such as these. I can't fully comment on baseball cards or comic books since I don't trade or collect either of those.*

I have seen this with gurus like the famous FT71. This is not true. Parts of it are true. How you trade makes the percentage. Your trades are 50-50. Not mine. There are fundamental facts about price and markets that make this thinking not true. When you have enough collected short term traders collected in 1 direction and their stops are triggered then 100% of the time price moves in that direction. Not 50% not 90% not 99% but 100%. How far and for how long? It depends on a ton of factors. But suffice it to say you can get the direction 100% of the time when stops are triggered. What is the direction a month from now? Don't know. My answer is what are the positions of retail traders a month from now? But you said you could predict the direction 100% of the time!!! No. Make no mistake you can predict the direction at the time the stops are hit and a little before. An hour before there is no way of knowing and there is no way to trade it an hour after. So your trades are 100% winners then? No. Because you can still be too slow to get on and miss it or you can still hold it for too long thus turning a winner into a loser. And also there is no way to know with certainty where it could end up and how long it will take to get there. It could go 2 ticks then come back to your entry and even stop out before it goes to your target. So trades can have 100% chance of winning in certain situations but anyone can ruin a perfectly good trade. Just because you can get the direction right doesn't mean that you know the direction 100% of the time. You can for sure know the direction after enough short term traders have been collected in 1 direction and their stops are hit.

 

50-50 is relative because there is actually more then 2 possibilities of what can happen in a trade. Some clarification could be maybe someone has small profit targets and takes profit right away. Or maybe some one has a target of 3000 in the S&P and a stop out of 700 and is still in since last May. Again maybe your trades are 50-50.

 

Your stops and targets and how you exercise them determines your percentage. If you don't move a stop or a target then yes its going to be 50-50. A 90% system may just mean they are using a large stop and a small profit for targets. These are the reasons for the percentage. Not the market. The applications of trades to the market make the percentage. I have had lots of trades where I was in a winning trade and it wasn't to my target and I pulled it. It never went to my target and would of turned into a loser. In this situation it defies the 50-50 ideas. I kept a winner from turning into a loser and with out adding or averaging. How do you quantify that? Yes if I traded with a 50-50 mindset and wasn't dynamic and flexible in the market then yes it would of been a loser. However it wasn't and the money went into my account.

 

Ok so you could say that every trade is a winner or a loser. And maybe that was the point all along. However what about a scratch trade? Winner or loser? What about a trade that has some winners and a loser? Do you account for a stop moved to your entry after you take some off or do you keep it at its original place? Are those winners or losers?

 

In closing you can increase your odd of winning or losing by how you exit the trade. When you flip a coin you have to wait for the coin to settle and accept the results. In trading its not that way. You can actually cut the trade when it is at any point of winning and its counted as winning. The equivalent to this with a coin is being able to see what the side of the coin is while its spinning and push it over with your finger.

 

I see what you are saying here but , I still think in 50 -50 . When I put a trade on I know it can only go up or down eventually .....scratch trades I suppose would count but only if you move your stop up to BE +costs.

 

I know we try and create strategies so that will win more often than we lose but when we trade its all 50-50 to me......perhaps there is no right answer I suppose it doe snto really matter anyway .......you either win over time or you don't.

 

Take the lottery for example ....lets say the odds are 1,000,000:1 . Even with those high odds if I actually buy 1 ticket I still have 50% chance of winning....I either win or I don't.

I either get killed driving my car to work or I don't....I either die in a plane crash or I don't......

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This is interesting, but very hard to believe.

 

Hi ARTjoMS,

 

As far as I'm concerned, this is the right attitude. You're getting purely anecdotal evidence from some random person on a forum who claims to have done some tests which might be riddled with errors, mis-interpreted, or just a plain fabrication.

 

The proper answer to your question is that you need to test this for yourself.

 

As for why I think that runs occur, it's because the markets are not random in the way that a coin flip is - as you state in your original post "price tends to trend". And I think that ultimately the outcome will still be as random because I think that such trends represent 'jumps' in a stochastic process.

 

You can imagine that as a combination of two 1:1 trades.

 

I've imagined all sorts of things in the past, and nearly all of them were wrong. So I stopped imagining and went to the data. In answer to this and any other question you may have, I would urge you to do the same . . .

 

Hope that helps,

 

BlueHorseshoe

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Even with those high odds if I actually buy 1 ticket I still have 50% chance of winning....I either win or I don't.

 

This sounds great - what lottery do you play?

 

You get one ticket this week, and I'll spring for the other; we'll have a 100% chance of winning between us! :)

 

I think you're confusing the odds of a particular outcome with the probability that there will be an outcome divided by the number of possible binary outcomes. They're two very different things. Probability is a bugger!

 

BlueHorseshoe

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As for why I think that runs occur, it's because the markets are not random in the way that a coin flip is - as you state in your original post "price tends to trend". And I think that ultimately the outcome will still be as random because I think that such trends represent 'jumps' in a stochastic process.

 

Sorry, but did you read what I said? I said that it has nothing to with markets, outcomes could be whatever they are but since you are picking sell with 50% chance and buy with other 50% you are effectively getting BE.

 

Imagine that coin toin toss has 100% chance to get heads and 0% to get tails (I believe this is what you mean by markets are not random). But you randomly pick heads or tails with 50% chance. In result you get 50% chance to win and 50% chance to lose in each coin flip. And this is purely random just like classic coin flip. I hope i shed some light on this.

 

This type of stohastic process (binary+discrete) is called a "Bernoulli process" you can google that for more information and it has nothing to do with jump process.

 

As far as I'm concerned, this is the right attitude. You're getting purely anecdotal evidence from some random person on a forum who claims to have done some tests which might be riddled with errors, mis-interpreted, or just a plain fabrication.

I don't see anyone claiming to have done tests here. But in a sense you are right. It was a bad idea to open this thread.

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Sorry, but did you read what I said?

 

My goodness, you are persistent and obnoxious, aren't you?

 

In result you get 50% chance to win and 50% chance to lose in each coin flip. And this is purely random just like classic coin flip. I hope i shed some light on this.

 

I see exactly what you mean. But when testing, this wasn't the assumption that I made; I assumed that there was 50% chance of each outcome exactly as with a coin-toss (and consequently did some lazy programming and consistently entered one side of the bet rather than trying to build a randomizing function). So, my results were either:

 

  1. derived from a flawed understanding of probability
  2. made an incorrect interpretation of the results
  3. aren't relevant to your particular premise

Incidentally, going on my argument, the market is not like a coin that is weighted 100% one side, but a coin on which the weighting shifts from one side to the other with random periodicity. This is NOT a Bernoulli process (wikipedia just told me so!).

 

Nevertheless, that still doesn't impact on the scenario you describe.

 

This type of stohastic process (binary+discrete) is called a "Bernoulli process" you can google that for more information and it has nothing to do with jump process.

 

If you're going to start quoting Bernoulli processes at me (with which I'm not familiar, by the way, so thanks for that) then you're evidently a pretty intelligent person (though a little rude). So you should go figure out the answer rather than asking someone with a poorer understanding than yourself.

 

I don't see anyone claiming to have done tests here. But in a sense you are right. It was a bad idea to open this thread.

 

Maybe I wasn't clear - I have done tests.

 

The thread might have been a bad idea for you, but I have learnt something, so I hope that makes it feel a little worthwhile?

 

BlueHorseshoe

Edited by BlueHorseshoe

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My goodness, you are persistent and obnoxious, aren't you?

 

I am aware of that.

So you should go figure out the answer rather than asking someone with a poorer understanding than yourself.

 

Yes, but that was not my question... this part (that i called as assumption) was "mathematically self evident" to me.

 

Sometimes it is hard to explain yourposition without sounding at least argumentative.

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It is natural to assume that random entry system wirh risk:reward ratio of 1:1 would be BE. (I am sure that someone has proved it)

 

 

So you are just assuming...that someone has proved it!?

 

And under this assumption (that you're not really sure about, and you can't seem to prove), you're going to start acting like the forum math genius.

 

:rofl:

 

Crack on Einstein! I'm loving it!

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Hi guys

 

Let's try to keep everything as civil as possible.

 

While debating an idea is fine, we will not tolerate rudeness, insulting posts, personal attacks, or purposeless inflammatory posts.

 

Thank you.

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    • Date: 11th July 2025.   Demand For Gold Rises As Trump Announces Tariffs!   Gold prices rose significantly throughout the week as investors took advantage of the 2.50% lower entry level. Investors also return to the safe-haven asset as the US trade policy continues to escalate. As a result, investors are taking a more dovish tone. The ‘risk-off’ appetite is also something which can be seen within the stock market. The NASDAQ on Thursday took a 0.90% dive within only 30 minutes.   Trade Tensions Escalate President Trump has been teasing with new tariffs throughout the week. However, the tariffs were confirmed on Thursday. A 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1st, along with 50% tariffs on copper and goods from Brazil. Some experts are advising that Brazil has been specifically targeted due to its association with the BRICS.   However, the President has not directly associated the tariffs with BRICS yet. According to President Trump, Brazil is targeting US technology companies and carrying out a ‘witch hunt’against former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, a close ally who is currently facing prosecution for allegedly attempting to overturn the 2022 Brazilian election.   Although Brazil is one of the largest and fastest-growing economies in the Americas, it is not the main concern for investors. Investors are more concerned about Tariffs on Canada. The White House said it will impose a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, effective August 1st, raised from the earlier 25% rate. This covers most goods, with exceptions under USMCA and exemptions for Canadian companies producing within the US.   It is also vital for investors to note that Canada is among the US;’s top 3 trading partners. The increase was justified by Trump citing issues like the trade deficit, Canada’s handling of fentanyl trafficking, and perceived unfair trade practices.   The President is also threatening new measures against the EU. These moves caused US and European stock futures to fall nearly 1%, while the Dollar rose and commodity prices saw small gains. However, the main benefactor was Silver and Gold, which are the two best-performing metals of the day.   How Will The Fed Impact Gold? The FOMC indicated that the number of members warming up to the idea of interest rate cuts is increasing. If the Fed takes a dovish tone, the price of Gold may further rise. In the meantime, the President pushing for a 3% rate cut sparked talk of a more dovish Fed nominee next year and raised worries about future inflation.   Meanwhile, jobless claims dropped for the fourth straight week, coming in better than expected and supporting the view that the labour market remains strong after last week’s solid payroll report. Markets still expect two rate cuts this year, but rate futures show most investors see no change at the next Fed meeting. Gold is expected to finish the week mostly flat.       Gold 15-Minute Chart     If the price of Gold increases above $3,337.50, buy signals are likely to materialise again. However, the price is currently retracing, meaning traders are likely to wait for regained momentum before entering further buy trades. According to HSBC, they expect an average price of $3,215 in 2025 (up from $3,015) and $3,125 in 2026, with projections showing a volatile range between $3,100 and $3,600   Key Takeaway Points: Gold Rises on Safe-Haven Demand. Gold gained as investors reacted to rising trade tensions and market volatility. Canada Tariffs Spark Concern. A 35% tariff on Canadian imports drew attention due to Canada’s key trade role. Fed Dovish Shift Supports Gold. Growing expectations of rate cuts and Trump’s push for a 3% cut boosted the gold outlook. Gold Eyes Breakout Above $3,337.5. Price is consolidating; a move above $3,337.50 could trigger new buy signals. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Back in the early 2000s, Netflix mailed DVDs to subscribers.   It wasn’t sexy—but it was smart. No late fees. No driving to Blockbuster.   People subscribed because they were lazy. Investors bought the stock because they realized everyone else is lazy too.   Those who saw the future in that red envelope? They could’ve caught a 10,000%+ move.   Another story…   Back in the mid-2000s, Amazon launched Prime.   It wasn’t flashy—but it was fast.   Free two-day shipping. No minimums. No hassle.   People subscribed because they were impatient. Investors bought the stock because they realized everyone hates waiting.   Those who saw the future in that speedy little yellow button? They could’ve caught another 10,000%+ move.   Finally…   Back in 2011, Bitcoin was trading under $10.   It wasn’t regulated—but it worked.   No bank. No middleman. Just wallet to wallet.   People used it to send money. Investors bought it because they saw the potential.   Those who saw something glimmering in that strange orange coin? They could’ve caught a 100,000%+ move.   The people who made those calls weren’t fortune tellers. They just noticed something simple before others did.   A better way. A quiet shift. A small edge. An asymmetric bet.   The red envelope fixed late fees. The yellow button fixed waiting. The orange coin gave billions a choice.   Of course, these types of gains are rare. And they happen only once in a blue moon. That’s exactly why it’s important to notice when the conditions start to look familiar.   Not after the move. Not once it's on CNBC. But in the quiet build-up— before the surface breaks.   Enter the Blue Button Please read more here: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/netflix-amazon-bitcoin-blue  Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
    • What These Attacks Look Like There are several ways you could get hacked. And the threats compound by the day.   Here’s a quick rundown:   Phishing: Fake emails from your “bank.” Click the link, give your password—game over.   Ransomware: Malware that locks your files and demands crypto. Pay up, or it’s gone.   DDoS: Overwhelm a website with traffic until it crashes. Like 10,000 bots blocking the door. Often used by nations.   Man-in-the-Middle: Hackers intercept your messages on public WiFi and read or change them.   Social Engineering: Hackers pose as IT or drop infected USB drives labeled “Payroll.”   You don’t need to be “important” to be a target.   You just need to be online.   What You Can Do (Without Buying a Bunker) You don’t have to be tech-savvy.   You just need to stop being low-hanging fruit.   Here’s how:   Use a YubiKey (physical passkey device) or Authenticator app – Ditch text message 2FA. SIM swaps are real. Hackers often have people on the inside at telecom companies.   Use a password manager (with Yubikey) – One unique password per account. Stop using your dog’s name.   Update your devices – Those annoying updates patch real security holes. Use them.   Back up your files – If ransomware hits, you don’t want your important documents held hostage.   Avoid public WiFi for sensitive stuff – Or use a VPN.   Think before you click – Emails that feel “urgent” are often fake. Go to the websites manually for confirmation.   Consider Starlink in case the internet goes down – I think it’s time for me to make the leap. Don’t Panic. Prepare. (Then Invest.)   I spent an hour in that basement bar reading about cyberattacks—and watching real-world systems fall apart like dominos.   The internet going down used to be an inconvenience. Now, it’s a warning.   Cyberwar isn’t coming. It’s here.   And the next time your internet goes out, it might not just be your router.   Don’t panic. Prepare.   And maybe keep a backup plan in your back pocket. Like a local basement bar with good bourbon—and working WiFi.   As usual, we’re on the lookout for more opportunities in cybersecurity. Stay tuned.   Author: Chris Campbell (AltucherConfidential) Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/   
    • DUMBSHELL:  re the automation of corruption ---  200,000 "Science Papers" in academic journal database PubMed may have been AI-generated with errors, hallucinations and false sourcing 
    • Does any crypto exchanges get banned in your country? How's about other as Bybit, Kraken, MEXC, OKX?
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