Would You Share?

[Roger Felton 10]

So I wanted to pose a question to the forum and get some feedback.

 

Now to start off we all no there is no such thing as the "Holy Grail" in trading unless you posses a Delorean and your flux capacitor is fluxing.

 

Nothing is 100% , but let us suppose for a second that you discovered a trading method that proved to be 90% accurate over the past say 2-3 years. You have back tested , forward tested , traded it on a live account and have done quite well for yourself. The method does not require HUGE risk taking.....a simple S/L strategy of no more than 10 ticks. It does require manual action , not a trading robot. ( I am sure one could be created but for the purposes of this question there is not one)

 

If you possessed such a strategy , would you share it with others? Now the catch is if you decide to share it with even 1 person , it will start to die ver quickly and no longer . Seeing as how people say if everyone finds out about a winning system and starts to use it , it will no longer work.

 

Would you share it with anyone seeing as how it will eventually cease to work?

Or would you keep it to yourself ?

 

I'm amazed at the really savvy responses from most of the trader posts here. Let me start off by saying I am an education and system vendor. I state this upfront because, to some here, that makes me a bad guy...even though they don't know me, never met me, never talked to a student or spent so much as 60 seconds in my Trading Room. From experience, these "critics" will flood this thread in an effort to slander me as much as they can so, for the rest, be forewarned. But, any honest system vendor (not an oxymoron) can have a lot to contribute on this excellent topic so here's my two cents.

 

I've been sharing information and teaching people how to trade free of charge for almost two decades. It's only when a trader wants to form a close daily learning relationship for the rest of their life that I have to draw the line on what I can do for free. Please understand that I do not need any more lifetime students, but yes, I would gladly share my techniques and strategies for free because I do it every single day.

 

Realistically, you cannot kill a trading system, even a great one, by teaching it. Perhaps a highly specialized system that trades in a very thin market might be an exception if you could convince enough people to lose their mind.

 

The Turtle System, for instance, happened to be the right system in the right vehicle at the right time. It didn't die from overexposure, it died because the market dynamics changed...just as they always have and always will. When a new trading system comes out, the world doesn't rush to trade it. Those that do will never all trade the same trades in the same market at the same time. Probably what has affected trading more than anything are the HFT's but, for me, the effects are mostly positive, not negative.

 

No trading system left "unattended" will last indefinitely. Traders must learn how to stay light on their feet and adapt or they will get clobbered. If you can get a couple years out of a trading system with no tweaks, that's pretty darn good.

 

Why are some successful traders so secretive about their trading strategies and systems? Well, for some it's just a form of greed. I get asked all the time, "Roger, you are a terrific trader. I've watched you every single day for 6 months (eg.)...why do you teach? Why don't you just trade?" The answer lies in the same reason multi-millionaires and multi-billionaires give so much of their wealth away to others who desperately need it. Then there are the Joe Biden's...they will never get it and forever wonder why the others do it.

 

But also consider that there is a big difference in giving away knowledge and personal time to help a trader in need and someone giving away their code. Whenever I discover something extremely useful that greatly adds to my trading accuracy, I have it coded into my system.

 

My philosophy is that, computers do a lot better job of measuring, figuring, filtering, data-crunching, anticipating and keeping everything in order and at instant fingertip access than I can...so let it have at it...while I take care of the fun stuff. It's like the alphabet. The letters are free. Words are free. I'll take the time to teach anyone to read and write. But, if I sit down for 3 years and write a best selling novel, I doubt if I'd give that away. So consider that when a trader seems "secretive".

 

There's a lot more I could say on this topic, for sure, but this is getting long. So, would I freely share a terrific, winning system that wins a high percentage of trades with a squeeky tight stop? Sure. But most traders don't want to "learn" anything. That's too much like work. For some goofy reason, 98% of the traders I help don't come from trader forums.

 

Ya'll tear 'em up in the markets tomorrow!

 

"No trading system is ever any better than the trader behind it pushing the buttons"

Edited January 29, 2013 by Roger Felton

[Ingot54 13]

So I wanted to pose a question to the forum and get some feedback.

 

... let us suppose for a second that you discovered a trading method

that proved to be 90% accurate over the past say 2-3 years.

 

If you possessed such a strategy , would you share it with others?

 

Would you share it with anyone seeing as how it will eventually cease to work?

Or would you keep it to yourself ?

I have actually built an excellent trading strategy, and I do think it is

close to the perfect approach.

 

Would I share it?

 

Not in full, and certainly not on a public forum like this. (Reasons below)

 

But I certainly would (100% assuredly) share the principles of what I do.

 

Reasons:

 

1) I worked for too long to share something that my sweat, tears and

losses has brought to fruition - and tweaked into something that I "own"

for myself. That is not selfish ... read on ...

 

2) If shared, how many people do you think would actually follow it as

taught ... and for how long? Not many - most would still tweak it more,

and most would be discouraged within the first week, or the first few

losses. I would be dismayed if I shared something I regard as "precious"

only to see it disdainfully discarded, and discredited.

 

3) I used to do a blog, which I have taken down now (some of that

material is still here in the blogs section I think). I shared a lot of stuff

there. One day I came across some free software that allowed me

to see if anyone was plagiarising any of my work. They were. I found

large chunks of my blog copy/pasted in both China and Norway.

 

Neither forum gave me any credit for the work.

 

Same with my MMA charts I created in 2004 (Google "Ingots rainbow 3D charts").

 

They have been copied and mutated so that they hardly resemble

the original. I even got some angry emails accusing me of stealing

someone else's invented charts. I was able to show where I first posted

my charts on a dedicated charting forum, in 2004, but the accuser

didn't even have the grace to apologise. I still have the template for

creating them, plus other goodies I will not share any more.

 

By the way - even though I won't share it, I would not imply that anyone

or even myself can/could make "big dollars" from them.

They are only tools - a small part of the machine shop that creates the

overall strategy.

 

I would certainly share the principles of how a great trading strategy is

built, imho only, so the trading world will really lose nothing from my

secrecy. After all, about 70% of what I know, was given freely to me

from this and many other forums over the past 9 years. The other 30%

I worked my butt off to learn. (If you see a loose butt kicking around - it is mine!)

 

My actual approach will always be kept close to my chest. But I will

freely share the principles that should enable a trader (who is finally

ready to listen) to make some pips.

 

I am certain there are other traders who have broken through who feel

the same, and yet others who simply wouldn't care how many people

know about it.

 

Not many people would use the Holy Grail, even if they had it in their

possession, in my view!

[geithner 10]

That is a tough question. I have been working for 3 years on an autotrade system for the YM. You turn the computer on enable the strategy and it does everything, entries/stops, it moves the stops when needed. It is producing about 2000.00 in profits every 90 days just trading one contract. You do the math- 10 contracts= 20k in trading profits. Will I sell it- not at this time. Yes- other traders could trade it and the market is liquid enough to handle the orders but if you reach a certain level and I do not know what the level is 50-100-200 traders, the system could develop some slippage. Do I want to be bothered being asked a bunch of questions as to how it works and prove it to me etc. No I don't. I am also concerned about large commercial traders trading against me to the point the singals do not work as well. If they know were you are placing your stops- they will run them. They have tons more momey than the retailer trader and can drive the market the other way temporarily just to run stops. I see it done all the time.

 

I laugh about sytems which claim they can trade multiple markets- Just not true. My system was developed to trade just one market and I know everything that I can learn which affects the YM. My system is not for sale- Too much blood and sweat to develop it.

[Gekko78 10]

I have actually built an excellent trading strategy, and I do think it is

close to the perfect approach.

 

Would I share it?

 

Not in full, and certainly not on a public forum like this. (Reasons below)

 

But I certainly would (100% assuredly) share the principles of what I do.

 

Reasons:

 

1) I worked for too long to share something that my sweat, tears and

losses has brought to fruition - and tweaked into something that I "own"

for myself. That is not selfish ... read on ...

 

2) If shared, how many people do you think would actually follow it as

taught ... and for how long? Not many - most would still tweak it more,

and most would be discouraged within the first week, or the first few

losses. I would be dismayed if I shared something I regard as "precious"

only to see it disdainfully discarded, and discredited.

 

3) I used to do a blog, which I have taken down now (some of that

material is still here in the blogs section I think). I shared a lot of stuff

there. One day I came across some free software that allowed me

to see if anyone was plagiarising any of my work. They were. I found

large chunks of my blog copy/pasted in both China and Norway.

 

Neither forum gave me any credit for the work.

 

Same with my MMA charts I created in 2004 (Google "Ingots rainbow 3D charts").

 

They have been copied and mutated so that they hardly resemble

the original. I even got some angry emails accusing me of stealing

someone else's invented charts. I was able to show where I first posted

my charts on a dedicated charting forum, in 2004, but the accuser

didn't even have the grace to apologise. I still have the template for

creating them, plus other goodies I will not share any more.

 

By the way - even though I won't share it, I would not imply that anyone

or even myself can/could make "big dollars" from them.

They are only tools - a small part of the machine shop that creates the

overall strategy.

 

I would certainly share the principles of how a great trading strategy is

built, imho only, so the trading world will really lose nothing from my

secrecy. After all, about 70% of what I know, was given freely to me

from this and many other forums over the past 9 years. The other 30%

I worked my butt off to learn. (If you see a loose butt kicking around - it is mine!)

 

My actual approach will always be kept close to my chest. But I will

freely share the principles that should enable a trader (who is finally

ready to listen) to make some pips.

 

I am certain there are other traders who have broken through who feel

the same, and yet others who simply wouldn't care how many people

know about it.

 

Not many people would use the Holy Grail, even if they had it in their

possession, in my view!

 

I like this answer . This is somewhat of my initial response when I was first asked this question. It took my 7 years of losses, blown accounts, stress, hundreds of hours of chart time ( just ask my wife ) method after method testing to finally get to where I am with a system I created on my own.......to just give it away when asked , to me is an insult.

 

Would I assist people and perhaps point them in the right direction as far as how to get started ? Perhaps as long as it did not interfere with my own trading and my ability to earn income from that.

 

Yes I said "EARNED" no one makes money unless they work for the mint. You earn it , whether its punching a clock and lifting boxes all day or trading or whatever.

 

So I would make someone else earn their own money unless they wanted me to trade for them which I would then charge a fee for since I also earned money for them as well.

[Roger Felton 10]

I have actually built an excellent trading strategy, and I do think it is

close to the perfect approach.

 

Would I share it?

 

Not in full, and certainly not on a public forum like this. (Reasons below)

 

But I certainly would (100% assuredly) share the principles of what I do.

 

Great post. Another in a long line of examples of how much grief you have to take from the ignorant when you try to enlighten. In trading, you gotta learn from the exerience and mistakes of others because you aren't going to (financially) live long enough to make them all yourself.

 

From your post, I sense a tinge of frustration. Sometimes you just want to throw up your hands and just go trade. But some traders will actually get it. You will save their bacon and change their life. The friendships you form from your generous spirit will last a lifetime. Hang in there ... take pride in your accomplishments and that which you are able to share.

[Tams 20]

Lots of people share their trading methods.

I know of 5 profitable systems/methods disclosed in this very forum. Free for the taking. But you have to take time to read the posts. It is not a push button thing, and it is definitely not something you can learn in 5 posts or less.

Edited January 30, 2013 by Tams

[Tams 20]

I used to post a lot of my Easylanguage codes. Some are educational -- to demonstrate how you can do certain analysis. Some are actual tools that I use everyday.

 

One day someone sent me a PM, with a link, pointing to a commercial site. Inside was one of my indicators, except they REMOVED the header, which contained my forum username. It wasn't even my real name, and I wasn't asking for money, but they don't even want to give that little credit to me. LOL.

[Mysticforex 13]

Lots of people share their trading methods.

I know of 5 profitable systems/methods disclosed in this very forum. Free for the taking. But you have to take time to read the posts. It is not a push button thing, and it is definitely not something you can learn in 5 posts or less.

 

Another problem I have found is you can lead a horse to water but you can't MAKE them drink.

[Ingot54 13]

Another problem I have found is you can lead a horse to water but you can't MAKE them drink.

Now there is a classic example of what we have been discussing Mystic Forex.

 

I recall that you shared one of your great strategies with us on a thread (myself included) and yet you could probably not find too many of the hundreds of viewers of that thread, who is trading it with you today.

 

I have an idea why, and it is nothing to do with the success or otherwise of that strategy.

 

The "horse" has to recognise that the "water" is an opportunity ... right here ... right now ...

 

If he doesn't take a drink, it may be a long time before the next opportunity appears.

[zdo 20]

The "horse" has to recognise that the "water" is an opportunity ... right here ... right now ...

 

If he doesn't take a drink...

 

Ingot, I understand what you're getting at but...

Actually not taking ‘a drink’ is more often a success than a failure.

...and btw, generic horse and generic water is really not a good example to use when you’re really talking about unique individual humans finding a self compatible trading edge. Horses have better smell than dogs do. Humans don't nearly have the equivalent 'olefactory' acuity for their 'testing' of edges so

while it is an accomplishment to recognize an opportunity when it is proffered,

it is a much greater accomplishment to discern if it is the right ‘edge’ / opportunity to commit to.

The orientation of ‘trading any opportune edge as long as it makes me money’ comprises a significant percentage of the loosers that fall by the wayside…

[BULLSANDBEARS 10]

TRYING TO SHARE HERE AND GETTING A BIG "X" ON MY THUMBNAILS, MABE ITS MY EYEBALLS, HERES AN ATTATCHMENT PIC OF A PROJECT IM WORKIN ON . TESTING 1, 2

 

 

 

ROGER THAT

[BULLSANDBEARS 10]

Good stuff, i can post a pic here, yet cant post a pic on my journal, appears as "x" ,

[Gekko78 10]

TRYING TO SHARE HERE AND GETTING A BIG "X" ON MY THUMBNAILS, MABE ITS MY EYEBALLS, HERES AN ATTATCHMENT PIC OF A PROJECT IM WORKIN ON . TESTING 1, 2

 

 

 

ROGER THAT

 

Looks like the heart test I had done last week!

[Ingot54 13]

... generic horse and generic water is really not a good example to

use when you’re really talking about unique individual humans finding

a self compatible trading edge. Horses have better smell than dogs do.

And thus originated the term: "Horse Trading!" :rofl:

 

ZDO - I think you are taking the metaphysical too far atm imho.

 

Your use of metaphors is superior only to mine :rofl:

 

Humans don't nearly have the equivalent 'olefactory'

acuity for their 'testing' of edges so while it is an accomplishment to

recognize an opportunity when it is proffered, it is a much greater

accomplishment to discern if it is the right ‘edge’ / opportunity to commit to.

I believe anyone with the powers of discernment that you allude to, would not

really be looking to piggy-back on someone else's strategy to begin with.

 

But according to folklore, 95% of traders fail. Therefore 95% of traders will be

looking for something they can use that might relieve them of the responsibility

of learning something about trading.

 

Just look at the threads over at the "factory" ... the most common question

asked in any thread is ... "Can someone turn this into an EA?"

 

Even when the "horses" are standing chest-high in the "water" ... they still

ask for iced-coffee! Some traders will never "get it" - and that's why the

scammers and the urgers on their fancy websites with their contrived figures

are so easily able to lure the wannabe's into their webs.

 

My point: - Even when the grail is set before them on a purple velvet mat,

some traders will not understand or even recognise the treasure they have

in front of them.

 

They simply don't know that they don't know.

Edited January 31, 2013 by Ingot54

[amory hill 10]

A few assumptions: if any of these strike you as odd or unreasonable, please don't read on.

 

1. the Perfect System does not exist.

2. some Traders are more Successful than others - why, because they are doing Something right.

3. some Traders are successful Sometimes, but they lack the necessary Concentration & Dedication to create lasting results..

4. regardless scams & rip-offs, a Computer CAN do it better

 

Is anyone still with me? No objection to (4)? then let us keep going.

 

In the 1970's Bobby Fischer who was then world chess champion, declared that there is no way a computer can ever beat a grandmaster. Chess requires not just skill & calculation, but also an element of surprise, sacrifice & imagination! Not long ago, the latest Fritz super-computer held the reigning champion Anand to a draw over 3 games .. that means it actually beat him once.*

 

An element of surprise, sacrifice & imagination! Does this not apply equally to the markets? If you ask me, winning at Forex or other branches of trading is a lot easier than winnning at chess. Even with limited skill & training, you will make the occasional profit. Not so at chess, which takes years of study & practice.

 

So how come a computer can learn to beat the world champion, but cannot produce consistent results on the markets? Easy: it's all a matter of training, in other words programming. The winning chess computer would have been programmed by grand-masters - result they (the grandmasters) have no hope of beating the world champion, but the computer has learnt enough from them to be able to do it.

 

Conclusion: all that's required to create the necessary computer program in our line of endeavor, is for several clever people to stick their heads together & along with an expert programmer or two, feed all their clever ideas into it. Remember, there is no limit to what a computer can absorb & calculate.

 

Let me give a simple example: let us say I 've got something on my charts that produces coloured arrows for up or down. And let us say I do quite well with that, but it's only one of a dozen things I need to actually get a reliable alert. How do I feed that into a computer? Just simply feed the whole system into it, it will be able to use it instantly.

 

But I've got a dozen such criteria, do I feed them all into the computer? Of course, it can handle a hundred programs in seconds. You can't, the computer can!

 

Back to the well-intentioned traders who are going to stick their heads together. Myself, I'd be more than happy to co-operate with such a gang of 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 .. trust me, between us, we'd create the super-champ of all times!

[Roger Felton 10]

Ingot, I understand what you're getting at but...

Actually not taking ‘a drink’ is more often a success than a failure.

...and btw, generic horse and generic water is really not a good example to use when you’re really talking about unique individual humans finding a self compatible trading edge. Horses have better smell than dogs do. Humans don't nearly have the equivalent 'olefactory' acuity for their 'testing' of edges so

while it is an accomplishment to recognize an opportunity when it is proffered,

it is a much greater accomplishment to discern if it is the right ‘edge’ / opportunity to commit to.

The orientation of ‘trading any opportune edge as long as it makes me money’ comprises a significant percentage of the loosers that fall by the wayside…

 

Yeah, perhaps it would have been better to say, "You can take a horticulture, but you can't make her like it".

 

Seriously, one trader's opportunity is another's Waterloo. The truth is that most traders don't stick with any system or method long enough to find out if it works (for them) or not. Most, for a variety of reasons, don't follow the rules worth a flip from the get-go and then curse the system because it failed. To trade any system and have any meaningful stats you have to trade it like a robot. No guessing, no impulsiveness, no mistakes and only make adjustments when you are absolutely positive that the change is an improvement.

 

I visited the link and viewed Ingot's beautiful Rainbow charts. Fascinating...and also evident that it would take me years of blood, sweat and tears to make that work for me...if at all. But that's nothing new, it takes years of hard work for any trader to learn or develop any system to the point of actually achieving long-term goals with it.

 

The system works for him...and it would probably work for many others but to try to tackle it with no instruction and regular training would almost certainly end in disappointment.

 

Traders switch systems like my wife switches shoes. To make it in this difficult game, traders must find that which works. There are numerous systems and methods that have the potential for long term profitability, some more than others. The system/method must fit the traders personality...style, complexity and risk well within their ability and comfort zone. Then roll up your sleeves and buckle down for a long difficult struggle, usually several years. If you want to boost your odds and cut down on the learning curve, find a really good coach...just like anyone else seeking a professional proficiency level in a difficult career choice would do.

Edited January 31, 2013 by Roger Felton

[Bluebay 10]

Listen all you you Traders out there. I have been trading full time now for the past 4 years via four different brokers. The second broker was and is the best and I am sticking to them. I made money but not a fortune. Everyone else that I have spoken to or that I know have lost money except my good friend who made a quarter bar some time ago but since then has been losing small amounts and has almost stopped trading as he is searching for the reasons why his method does not work anymore. The markets morphe all the time and what worked for me 2 years ago just does not work today.

 

I will not share my success and trading methods with anyone. Each person must search for their own secret method that works for them.

 

However, to help you in your quest look at what helped me. Find the times that are best to trade, don't trade with money that you cannot afford to lose and don't over complicate matters with lots of indicators. One and five minute time frames are a waste of time. Avoid trading around important news eg non farm payrolls.

 

And most important of all don't take chances, be patient, very very patient.

 

And now for some words of wisdom. Perhaps the markets are manipulated, perhaps not. What I do know is that ther are some very clever people out there on the other side, if you are not making money trading then they are just cleverer than you, fact.

 

I suppose I am going to get blasted now.

[Mysticforex 13]

Listen all you you Traders out there. I have been trading full time now for the past 4 years via four different brokers. The second broker was and is the best and I am sticking to them. I made money but not a fortune. Everyone else that I have spoken to or that I know have lost money except my good friend who made a quarter bar some time ago but since then has been losing small amounts and has almost stopped trading as he is searching for the reasons why his method does not work anymore. The markets morphe all the time and what worked for me 2 years ago just does not work today.

 

I will not share my success and trading methods with anyone. Each person must search for their own secret method that works for them.

 

However, to help you in your quest look at what helped me. Find the times that are best to trade, don't trade with money that you cannot afford to lose and don't over complicate matters with lots of indicators. One and five minute time frames are a waste of time. Avoid trading around important news eg non farm payrolls.

 

And most important of all don't take chances, be patient, very very patient.

 

And now for some words of wisdom. Perhaps the markets are manipulated, perhaps not. What I do know is that ther are some very clever people out there on the other side, if you are not making money trading then they are just cleverer than you, fact.

 

I suppose I am going to get blasted now.

 

Blasted? not at all. good post with some valid points. As you say, everyone is different. Some want a little more "hand holding, some none at all.

[Ingot54 13]

I have been trading full time now for the past 4 years via four different brokers.

 

I will not share my success and trading methods with anyone.

Each person must search for their own secret method that works for them.

 

* Find the times that are best to trade

* don't trade with money that you cannot afford to lose

* don't over complicate matters with lots of indicators.

* One and five minute time frames are a waste of time.

* Avoid trading around important news eg non farm payrolls.

* And most important of all don't take chances, be patient, very very patient.

 

Perhaps the markets are manipulated, perhaps not.

 

What I do know is that there are some very clever people out there on the other

side, if you are not making money trading then they are just cleverer than you, fact.

 

Agree with Mystic, BlueBay - excellent insights, and thanks for sharing those views.

It all resonates with me and my own trading experience.

 

(Hope you didn't mind my abridgement of your great post)

 

btw - I would definitely sell my strategy ... if I could price it right ... $47 ... $97 ... $197 ...

:rofl:

 

It would take me three minutes to explain it, and another three minutes to get the client

set up. After that I would rest secure in the knowledge that he would not trade it past

his first loss.

 

Anyone who has to purchase a strategy is not trying and not reading decent forums

enough. But a trader who has a useful strategy that is making money for them, has

already done his homework.

[Gekko78 10]

A few assumptions: if any of these strike you as odd or unreasonable, please don't read on.

 

1. the Perfect System does not exist.

2. some Traders are more Successful than others - why, because they are doing Something right.

3. some Traders are successful Sometimes, but they lack the necessary Concentration & Dedication to create lasting results..

4. regardless scams & rip-offs, a Computer CAN do it better

 

Is anyone still with me? No objection to (4)? then let us keep going.

 

In the 1970's Bobby Fischer who was then world chess champion, declared that there is no way a computer can ever beat a grandmaster. Chess requires not just skill & calculation, but also an element of surprise, sacrifice & imagination! Not long ago, the latest Fritz super-computer held the reigning champion Anand to a draw over 3 games .. that means it actually beat him once.*

 

An element of surprise, sacrifice & imagination! Does this not apply equally to the markets? If you ask me, winning at Forex or other branches of trading is a lot easier than winnning at chess. Even with limited skill & training, you will make the occasional profit. Not so at chess, which takes years of study & practice.

 

So how come a computer can learn to beat the world champion, but cannot produce consistent results on the markets? Easy: it's all a matter of training, in other words programming. The winning chess computer would have been programmed by grand-masters - result they (the grandmasters) have no hope of beating the world champion, but the computer has learnt enough from them to be able to do it.

 

Conclusion: all that's required to create the necessary computer program in our line of endeavor, is for several clever people to stick their heads together & along with an expert programmer or two, feed all their clever ideas into it. Remember, there is no limit to what a computer can absorb & calculate.

 

Let me give a simple example: let us say I 've got something on my charts that produces coloured arrows for up or down. And let us say I do quite well with that, but it's only one of a dozen things I need to actually get a reliable alert. How do I feed that into a computer? Just simply feed the whole system into it, it will be able to use it instantly.

 

But I've got a dozen such criteria, do I feed them all into the computer? Of course, it can handle a hundred programs in seconds. You can't, the computer can!

 

Back to the well-intentioned traders who are going to stick their heads together. Myself, I'd be more than happy to co-operate with such a gang of 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 .. trust me, between us, we'd create the super-champ of all times!

 

The perfect system does not exists you are correct I do not believe anyone ever stated that it did. In my very first pot I stated this and was simply trying to see if you had one that worked really well would you share it.

 

Sure computers work great until they don't . Remember LTM? They thought they had fond the holy grail over there. It worked for a long time until it didn't. How about Knight capital. Computer program went nuts and that was it. The problem with programs and the people who program them is that they cannot account for everything. In LTM's case it was a black swan event that was impossible to predict. A human trader would have seen that event and just stopped or took advantage from the other side. With knight the program just kept going . They knew what was wrong but just could not stop it. Again a human would have just stopped or been stopped . There are to many variables in the market for a computer to do it correct all the time forever. Is it working for many now? Sure it is but they might all be one black swan away from crashing. There are ways to beat the algos , you just have to know how they work and be able to spot when they are trading . It is difficult but it can be done .

[SIUYA 11]

The perfect system does not exists you are correct I do not believe anyone ever stated tIn LTM's case it was a black swan event that was impossible to predict.

 

Correction....they used excessive amounts of leverage, and so it was certainly predictable - if you could look inside their 'black box' or prime brokerage accounts and see how much leverage and exposure they really had on. They were dealing in marginal trades and using leverage to extract extra returns - this has always caused people to blow up.

(Corzine as an anger management example)

If you think you have a perfect hedge, then you think you have the holy grail and it does not exist.

 

As an aside - anyone ever stop to think that most fund managers do share their systems at a price. (fees) You can participate along side them without the work, share in their system for outperforming the markets! Their marketing material and due diligence documents reveal their systems openly.......All they are doing is the operational work for you.

[Ingot54 13]

A human trader would have seen that event and just stopped ...

 

With knight the program just kept going . They knew what was wrong but just could not stop it.

 

Again a human would have just stopped or been stopped.

Gekko - there is one thing far more powerful than all the computer power in the world ...

more irresistible than 100 speeding locomotives ... more deadly than the most-skilled of 1,000 snipers ...

and more authoritative than all the presidents in the world.

 

It is ...

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

 

... a wife!

 

With three terse, curt words, she could have saved LTCM and Knight Capital ...

 

Stop.

Trading.

NOW!

 

Worked for me.

[Tams 20]

Nah that would be a nightmare.Let's substitute trading system for building a new car.

 

Naturally,i would only be interested in a sports car.But:

 

Ingot would object based on the fact that the exhaust is too loud and the damage to the ozone layer would "do my head in"

 

DBphoenix would prefer to use traditional materials and no gimmicks and would want to rip out the carbon fibre dash and voice activated ashtray.

 

Zdo would want to question the assumption that a car must have 4 wheels and every component on it would go through the same process until we ran out of time and budget.

 

SIUYA would see the pro's and cons of every single argument we ever had and so would be forever changing whatever it was we did the day before to try and find a compromise before telling us to go screw ourselves.

 

Tams would want bullet proof windows and MightMouse would insist that in a civil society we shouldn't need 'em

 

MMS would keep cutting the budget after every argument.

 

Patuca only likes bikes so he wouldn't even be on the team...

 

Can't see it working somehow.

 

 

and mitsubishi would like a free car every 3 years with free petro and free oil change for the rest of his life.

[Tams 20]

Gekko - there is one thing far more powerful than all the computer power in the world ...

more irresistible than 100 speeding locomotives ... more deadly than the most-skilled of 1,000 snipers ...

and more authoritative than all the presidents in the world.

 

It is ...

.

.

 

... a wife!

 

With three terse, curt words, she could have saved LTCM and Knight Capital ...

 

Stop.

Trading.

NOW!

 

 

Worked for me.

 

Crikey !

[4EverMaAT 10]

.......

 

As an aside - anyone ever stop to think that most fund managers do share their systems at a price. (fees) You can participate along side them without the work, share in their system for outperforming the markets! Their marketing material and due diligence documents reveal their systems openly.......All they are doing is the operational work for you.

 

Many people do not consider this aspect. Trading for a living is much more about managing risk, not trying to re-invent the wheel. And nowadays, with things like zulutrade and Rapa Capital, you can get a clearer idea of how to create a 'winning' system. It's not complicated; but it requires that you take structured risks until you are consistent.