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Gekko78

Would You Share?

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............As an aside - anyone ever stop to think that most fund managers do share their systems at a price. (fees) You can participate along side them without the work, share in their system for outperforming the markets! Their marketing material and due diligence documents reveal their systems openly.......All they are doing is the operational work for you.

 

Thank you Gekko, Siuya & everyone else who commented on my "offer to share"

.

I never suggested that the computer would take care of the Trading side of it. If we were going to work out something between us & fed it into a computer, we would then use it to tell us what & when to trade. Yes, there are such systems around - heaps of them, by the amount of mail I'm getting & each one claiming infallibility - all I am suggesting is that we can, between us, input what seems to work for us & program it in.

 

Look back if you would, on some of your trades where you failed miserably (if that has never happened to you, then there is no need to read on). When you studied the trade, did you not ask yourself: WHY DID I NOT SEE THAT? OF COURSE IT WASN'T GOING TO WORK! Not enough Trend, or Momentum, or Dynamics etc.

 

The intelligently programmed computer would have seen it (whatever it is). The human eye & brain can see it too, but not within the time that it takes to absorb all the info, process it & place the order on an active market.

 

That last bit is the easy one: placing the order. All I need the computer for, is to tell me what & when. As I said in my original post: Conclusion: all that's required to create the necessary computer program in our line of endeavor, is for several clever people to stick their heads together & along with an expert programmer or two, feed all their clever ideas into it. Remember, there is no limit to what a computer can absorb & calculate.

 

Or what the heck: work alongside your fund manager! I knew all along there must be an easier way.

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Fund managers outperform the markets?

 

hence my exclamation mark in the original - wondering if that would be picked up :)

 

In all fairness most fund managers think they can outperform and will show you how they do and how they beet their peers. I have plenty of friends who are fund managers who keep reminding me - and then i ask the crucial question - 'so if i invested with you how much money do i have now' - the answer is often less than i started with - BUT i had out performance!

 

As for zulu trade and rapa capital - they just seem to be an amalgamation of various small traders from what i can tell - I dont know enough to comment - interesting models - I wonder where they really make their money? spreads, commissions somewhere else?

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hence my exclamation mark in the original - wondering if that would be picked up :)

 

In all fairness most fund managers think they can outperform and will show you how they do and how they beet their peers. I have plenty of friends who are fund managers who keep reminding me - and then i ask the crucial question - 'so if i invested with you how much money do i have now' - the answer is often less than i started with - BUT i had out performance!

 

As for zulu trade and rapa capital - they just seem to be an amalgamation of various small traders from what i can tell - I dont know enough to comment - interesting models - I wonder where they really make their money? spreads, commissions somewhere else?

 

Sounds like an example of optimism bias:

This is a well-established bias in which someone’s subjective confidence in their judgments is reliably greater than their objective accuracy. Indeed, we live in an overconfident, Lake Wobegon world (“where all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average”). We are only correct about 80% of the time when we are “99% sure.” Fully 94% of college professors believe they have above-average teaching skills (anyone who has gone to college will no doubt disagree with that). Since 80% of drivers say that their driving skills are above average, I guess none of them drive on the freeway when I do. While 70% of high school students claim to have above-average leadership skills, only 2% say they are below average, no doubt taught by above average math teachers. In a truly terrifying survey result, 92% students said they were of good character and 79% said that their character was better than most people even though 27% of those same students admitted stealing from a store within the prior year and 60% said they had cheated on an exam.

Or perhaps cognitive dissonance.

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hence my exclamation mark in the original - wondering if that would be picked up :)

 

In all fairness most fund managers think they can outperform and will show you how they do and how they beet their peers. I have plenty of friends who are fund managers who keep reminding me - and then i ask the crucial question - 'so if i invested with you how much money do i have now' - the answer is often less than i started with - BUT i had out performance!

 

As for zulu trade and rapa capital - they just seem to be an amalgamation of various small traders from what i can tell - I dont know enough to comment - interesting models - I wonder where they really make their money? spreads, commissions somewhere else?

 

zulutrade makes their money off of commissions per trade. They hook up to the broker's trading servers via api and copy trades directly from the signal provider's account to the zulutrade / follower's account. The follower either has to get a new account from the broker via their Introducing Broker partnership, or if you do not want to sign up for a new account, you have to sign an agreement to add an additional commission in order to accept the trades via zulutrade. You are ranked based on your performance while you are connected to zulutrade, and they are pretty good about showing you actual performance, to prevent people from trying to earn commissions only based on making a lot of senseless trades.

 

MyFxBook is going to introduce a copy trades solution, but they will only pay for winning trades, not all trades to prevent the commission hunters.

 

Rapa is more of a traditional fund broker who links up fund managers/traders with those with capital. They split a 2% management / 20% performance fee with the trader. You have to have live performance, and then you only get paid when you increase the account beyond the original balance and there may be other "hurdle" performance restrictions, to prevent traders from having a large drawdown, then increasing the balance, then getting paid on the increase-after-drawdown.

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Lots of people share their trading methods.

I know of 5 profitable systems/methods disclosed in this very forum. Free for the taking. But you have to take time to read the posts. It is not a push button thing, and it is definitely not something you can learn in 5 posts or less.

Give me a hint maybe a couple links to the threads please. Thank you.

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seems to me we are deviating from the original purpose of this thread. Would you share?

 

what's to share? does any one of us possess the perfect system? myself, offering to cooperate in the creation of it, preferably via a sophisticated computer program.

 

for starters, that's what we need to share! by pooling our knowledge & experience.

 

Myself, using a point system .. based on dynamics, MA's, various indicators as well as trends & bends. on charts that is, not news or fundamentals. OK to trade if I achieve 9 points out of 12. it works quite well for me, but it is slow & primitive.

 

compared to what can be done, in order to achieve the perfect signals. the computer can be programmed to keep an eye on any number of items (myself specializing in Forex at the moment) and to analyze fifty or more clues & to give the go-ahead, all this within a couple of seconds.

 

always provided it's been fed the right methods. back to my comparison with a super chess computer: the grandmasters who program it, teach it a few standard openings, all the moves & all the rules & regulations - we are looking at a few hundred of them, maybe more.

 

whereupon it looks seven or eight moves ahead within seconds & beats its own mentors easily! that's the skill we've got to apply to the market.

Edited by amory

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seems to me we are deviating from the original purpose of this thread. Would you share?

 

what's to share? does any one of us possess the perfect system? myself, offering to cooperate in the creation of it, preferably via a sophisticated computer program.

What is a perfect system?

 

 

for starters, that's what we need to share! by pooling our knowledge & experience.

Ok

Myself, using a point system .. based on dynamics, MA's, various indicators as well as trends & bends. on charts that is, not news or fundamentals. OK to trade if I achieve 9 points out of 12. it works quite well for me, but it is slow & primitive.

My experience is all that stuff you just mentioned doesn't work. It is probably the most inefficient way to trade or even look at markets. I am not saying it is not logical. However I bet everything you are using is lagging. You will always be at least 2 steps behind. Because of this you will have more risk per trade. You will have larger draw downs. And you want to have a computer trade for you?

 

 

compared to what can be done, in order to achieve the perfect signals. the computer can be programmed to keep an eye on any number of items (myself specializing in Forex at the moment) and to analyze fifty or more clues & to give the go-ahead, all this within a couple of seconds.

/facepalm.... Everything you mentioned so far is retail type of thinking. All we need to do is throw in a few popular catch phrases and we have ourselves a common trading room. My guess is that you are trolling. But if you are not...

 

The problem with computers is that markets are dominated by people. Its mostly people that trade markets. I know its not popular what I am saying. However computers don't act like people. They don't think like people. And most importantly they don't trade like people. So far as I know man has not found a way to teach a computer to feel. Computers work well when you get to the point where you are missing more good trades then you take bad trades. And when you get to that point then you are still better hiring someone to take the trades you are missing. The reason is that computers don't trade like humans.

 

Analyzing 50 or more clues in your situation wont help you. Just from what you presented so far it looks like you don't know what to look for. Looking at 50 random things might help. Might not. Seems like shooting in the dark. Here are some ideas.

 

Can you do what you do in Forex in the Future market? Do you need the large stop out? Are you using correlated markets? Are you looking at the bid/ask? Can you really say you have an advantage over others in the markets you attempt to trade?

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What is a perfect system?

 

Ok

 

My experience is all that stuff you just mentioned doesn't work. It is probably the most inefficient way to trade or even look at markets. I am not saying it is not logical. However I bet everything you are using is lagging. You will always be at least 2 steps behind. Because of this you will have more risk per trade. You will have larger draw downs. And you want to have a computer trade for you?

 

/facepalm.... Everything you mentioned so far is retail type of thinking. All we need to do is throw in a few popular catch phrases and we have ourselves a common trading room. My guess is that you are trolling. But if you are not...

 

The problem with computers is that markets are dominated by people. Its mostly people that trade markets. I know its not popular what I am saying. However computers don't act like people. They don't think like people. And most importantly they don't trade like people. So far as I know man has not found a way to teach a computer to feel. Computers work well when you get to the point where you are missing more good trades then you take bad trades. And when you get to that point then you are still better hiring someone to take the trades you are missing. The reason is that computers don't trade like humans.

 

Analyzing 50 or more clues in your situation wont help you. Just from what you presented so far it looks like you don't know what to look for. Looking at 50 random things might help. Might not. Seems like shooting in the dark. Here are some ideas.

 

Can you do what you do in Forex in the Future market? Do you need the large stop out? Are you using correlated markets? Are you looking at the bid/ask? Can you really say you have an advantage over others in the markets you attempt to trade?

 

Hi there Colonel! I like your aggressive attitude .. a military background, no doubt. I reckon there is nothing like a direct confrontation to clear the air.

 

What would you rather do? confront an enemy force that by far outnumbers you .. but you can see them, fight them! or drive your humvee thru a minefield or maybe into a roadside bomb trap, hoping for the best? Your answer will reveal a lot about how you handle the market.

 

The suggestion that I am trolling .. I find that insulting. I am merely offering a practical suggestion .. if some of you guys find it of value, go ahead & use it & leave me out, it makes no difference to me.

 

Do I have an advantage over others in the markets I attempt to trade .. reply negative. But I keep trying to learn from every mistake & to improve on the methodology as best I can.

 

Note: I never said that the computer should do the trading (for myself alone or for a group with collective input) .. only the resulting system would be SHARED (that's the operative word, is it not?)

 

but it would still be up to the individual participant to make up his/ her mind whether to act on it.

 

Finally, back to my comparison with chess computers: Bobby Fischer who was a chess genius, said similar to what you are saying .. ("... man has not found a way to teach a computer to feel.") He worded it somewhat differently: that a computer has no imagination, that chess is to a great extent a game requiring intuition .. well, he's been proved wrong! I wonder have they as yet been able to teach a computer to learn from its mistakes???

 

Anyway, I am glad we are at least discussing it .. like the middle east peace talks, it may lead nowhere, but it should be done!

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Discussing it? I thought we were trying to talk you out of it.

Middle East "peace talks".....oh, is that what they are? How does that go then? Israel..they get to keep their nukes (the ones they dont officially admit they have) and if they fire them on Iran that will save the US invading.Now the rest of you guys stop bitching about some other country we planted on your land a few decades ago,and stop begrudging the extra land they're helping themselves to as and when they feel like it contary to international laws.And we're not really moved by the sight of dead palestinians,even children,only Israeli children killed whenever Hezbollah fires a few rockets 'cos we decided Hezbollah are the bad guys.Shame all you countries are sitting on so much oil,otherwise i guess we could happily let you all kill each other.And now,...back to those peace talks.

Ok,back to your "practical suggestion".You underestimate the unintended consequences of getting a computor (lets call him Hal 9000) to work with half a dozen conflicting ideas.Have you seen your computor freeze sometimes when you ask it to do several things at once?...so you know it's a very real phenomena.

If you are going to compete with HFT (which you are patently not,since you mention lagging old indicators) then taking things to their logical conclusion ie trading even faster than micro seconds,you'll actually be buying and selling at exactly the same moment.This will result in Hal 9000 reacting in one of 2 ways.Either he will freeze or he will refuse to comply with your wishes and will,instead attempt to protect you from yourself.

"Hal,sell short 5 contracts"

"I'm afraid i can't do that Dave"

"HAL,5 CONTRACTS SHORT!"

(silence)

"Ok Hal, i'll do it manually"

"You're going to find that a little difficult without the express permission of you partners Dave"

"HAL...5 contract short"

"I'm sorry Dave,but this conversation can no longer serve any useful purpose"

 

This thread will now self destruct in...T minus 2 days

 

Thanks Mitsubishi! that is most instructive & entertaining. But I feel that both your political views & your gift for clever dialogue are misplaced in the context of this thread.

 

Where you tell us that a computer will freeze if given a multitude of tasks .. good thing the people who send out probes to explore the planet Mars & beyond never knew that.

 

Because compared to that effort, teaching a computer to do what we are trying to do .. beat the market .. should be child's play. I will concede one point: the program has to be reasonably intelligent. In other words, the team .. uh-oh here he goes trolling again, would have to more or less agree on the basic principles they're going to teach poor old HAL. No use overtaxing his simplistic brain.

 

P.S. the Japanese when they invaded Manchuria & Nanking back in 1937, they didn't worry too much about international law. That's not their car you're driving, is it?

Edited by amory

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So in keeping with the original question I posted here I decided to do an experiment.

 

A friend of mine has been bugging me for about a year to "help" him trade his futures account. ( basically tell him how I make money)

 

After countless "No , it is something you need to learn on your own" stuff........I decided to give it to him.

 

2 weeks ago showed him EXACTLY how I trade the futures market. I left nothing out....nothing.

 

 

So he called me yesterday saying that I either lied to him or just made up what I told him because he lost almost all of his money doing what I told him.

 

 

I am guessing that his emotions got to him since I am usually in and out in less than 5 minutes if even that ....maybe even 1 minute. Plus he came from the FX market , as I did when I first started futures , but he did not take the time to learn.

 

I gave him what he asked for .....

 

One thing that I always said to him and continue to say is " You cannot quantum leap to success"

 

So perhaps a profitable strategy can be shared with others as I expect about 50% of them will screw it up anyway and move on to the next "grail"

 

P.S.--- NO I will NOT share it with you either!!

Have a nice day :)

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So in keeping with the original question I posted here I decided to do an experiment.

 

A friend of mine has been bugging me for about a year to "help" him trade his futures account. ( basically tell him how I make money)

 

After countless "No , it is something you need to learn on your own" stuff........I decided to give it to him.

 

2 weeks ago showed him EXACTLY how I trade the futures market. I left nothing out....nothing.

 

 

So he called me yesterday saying that I either lied to him or just made up what I told him because he lost almost all of his money doing what I told him.

 

 

I am guessing that his emotions got to him since I am usually in and out in less than 5 minutes if even that ....maybe even 1 minute. Plus he came from the FX market , as I did when I first started futures , but he did not take the time to learn.

 

I gave him what he asked for .....

 

One thing that I always said to him and continue to say is " You cannot quantum leap to success"

 

So perhaps a profitable strategy can be shared with others as I expect about 50% of them will screw it up anyway and move on to the next "grail"

 

P.S.--- NO I will NOT share it with you either!!

Have a nice day :)

Brilliant example of what happens when someone comes to the markets more keen to make money than they are to learn the method.

 

That would have been me at the beginning too ... and I paid some dues ... oh Yeah!

 

And still pay some!

 

Good judgement

Comes from Experience

Experience comes from

Bad judgement

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So in keeping with the original question I posted here I decided to do an experiment.

 

A friend of mine has been bugging me for about a year to "help" him trade his futures account. ( basically tell him how I make money)

 

After countless "No , it is something you need to learn on your own" stuff........I decided to give it to him.

 

2 weeks ago showed him EXACTLY how I trade the futures market. I left nothing out....nothing.

 

 

So he called me yesterday saying that I either lied to him or just made up what I told him because he lost almost all of his money doing what I told him.

 

 

I am guessing that his emotions got to him since I am usually in and out in less than 5 minutes if even that ....maybe even 1 minute. Plus he came from the FX market , as I did when I first started futures , but he did not take the time to learn.

 

I gave him what he asked for .....

 

One thing that I always said to him and continue to say is " You cannot quantum leap to success"

 

So perhaps a profitable strategy can be shared with others as I expect about 50% of them will screw it up anyway and move on to the next "grail"

 

P.S.--- NO I will NOT share it with you either!!

Have a nice day :)

 

I felt compelled to comment on this as I meant to make a similar comment earlier on in the thread. One of the things that made the original turtle trader experiment so interesting was that not all of the turtles were successful, even though:

 

- the group selected to be turtles went through a fairly rigorous selection process.

- they all had direct access to the master trader's strategy, in a clearly laid out form.

- they were supervised at different levels of advancement in the program; all had the ability to ask questions, seek direct guidance whenever they had problems.

- it wasn't even their money that was being traded [so financially they had nothing to 'lose']

- not sure, but I think they even got some minimum compensation for their efforts.

 

But Curtis summed it up nicely:

 

......"In fact, I knew that most of those who spent thousands to learn

these heretofore secret [turtle] rules would end up disappointed, for three reasons:

• The rules wouldn’t be clear, since the people selling them didn’t know how to

trade.

• Even if they were clearly presented, the buyers probably wouldn’t be able to

follow the rules.

• Most of the Turtles are now trading even better rules....... "

 

In addition to the link above, i decided to just attach the rules here for easy reference.

 

I take a different stance on sharing "the secret" with others, so I don't know what to say about the folks trying to keep up this mystique about trading successfully. Seems to just be adding or rehashing the superstitions to managing risk, and those wanting safety and security are drawn to these mysterious methods. I commend Curtis for bringing not just the strategy, but the overall mindset of a successful strategy to light; this is how you counter the falsehoods.

 

Kind of like the internet marketing thing. If you help your clients get to, or closer to, their goal, wouldn't they just naturally pay you to do this?

turtlerules.pdf

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So I wanted to pose a question to the forum and get some feedback.

 

Now to start off we all no there is no such thing as the "Holy Grail" in trading unless you posses a Delorean and your flux capacitor is fluxing.

 

Nothing is 100% , but let us suppose for a second that you discovered a trading method that proved to be 90% accurate over the past say 2-3 years. You have back tested , forward tested , traded it on a live account and have done quite well for yourself. The method does not require HUGE risk taking.....a simple S/L strategy of no more than 10 ticks. It does require manual action , not a trading robot. ( I am sure one could be created but for the purposes of this question there is not one)

 

If you possessed such a strategy , would you share it with others? Now the catch is if you decide to share it with even 1 person , it will start to die ver quickly and no longer . Seeing as how people say if everyone finds out about a winning system and starts to use it , it will no longer work.

 

Would you share it with anyone seeing as how it will eventually cease to work?

Or would you keep it to yourself ?

 

Now many I have asked would say "well I would make money until I had what I needed then share it" If that is your answer then How much is enough? Would you pick and arbitrary number and once you hit ...stop? Most people have a number but once they reach it the number increases and so on and so on.

 

The 2 reasons why the "get what I need then stop" may not work:

 

1) humans are greedy by nature , when we have what we want , we tend to want more.Not all but most.

2) the number you you need now will more than likely change over time..( remember when you were a teenager and $35,000 a year was awesome and you would be independently wealthy if you made that much)

 

No I wouldnt share but ask them to trade under my instructions and pay me if profitable.

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Well ... I've had a change of heart ... I'm sharing ... and I'm sharing my strategy publicly.

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/forex-trading-laboratory/15784-how-trade-foreign-exchange-market-forex.html'>http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/forex-trading-laboratory/15784-how-trade-foreign-exchange-market-forex.html

 

Let's see who can do what now. :missy:

 

Let's put a few theories to the test, and see how willing and able people are, to follow a method that is working quite well.

 

Let's see my strategy fail now because 400,000 people will now be using it, and it will no longer work profitably. :rofl:

 

Let's see the brokers changing things so the strategy doesn't work any more.

 

What I am thinking is that we may see people UNABLE to help themselves - they may want to tweak, change, add, subtract, detract from and add to the approach, until it no longer resembles the original.

 

The theories are now under the microscope.

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/forex-trading-laboratory/15784-how-trade-foreign-exchange-market-forex.html

5aa711c2a0026_ShowmetheMonnai.jpg.eec653d671740683c28352d36de617a4.jpg

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Regarding the turtles, I watched a youtube video on one of them giving a lecture. No offence meant to the guy but while he was giving the lecture and talking to the audience (who were all there to learn how to trade from one of the 'legendary turtles'), he didn't strike me as all that bright. Certainly nothing special.

 

It got me thinking that perhaps the reason for his making money using the strategy, was that he has more of a 'follower' type personality (if there is such a thing). He was able to take the information given to him from his superiors and do it, and keep doing it, and didn't question authority even when things went wrong (like in the Milgram experiment). Maybe that's why 'average' people are supposed to do ok at trading – they keep doing something that works.

 

Although... if they're average, how would they go about figuring out what works in the first place? You have to be a bit different, otherwise you'll be the same as everyone else – which would mean you're in the majority. Which is the right place to be at some times, and is disastrous at other times.

 

Also, if they're average, what happens when the markets change, how do they figure out that the markets are different and that it may be time to adapt their strategy? Maybe that's why he's now giving lectures. Who knows.

 

I think you need intelligence to figure out what works for you, you need to be able to admit when you're wrong (be humble), while being able to carry on in the face of adversity, having confidence in yourself (or system) that if things go wrong you can always change or adapt. Perhaps you need to be a follower, but a follower of yourself.

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Regarding the turtles, I watched a youtube video on one of them giving a lecture. No offence meant to the guy but while he was giving the lecture and talking to the audience (who were all there to learn how to trade from one of the 'legendary turtles'), he didn't strike me as all that bright. Certainly nothing special.

 

It got me thinking that perhaps the reason for his making money using the strategy, was that he has more of a 'follower' type personality (if there is such a thing). He was able to take the information given to him from his superiors and do it, and keep doing it, and didn't question authority even when things went wrong (like in the Milgram experiment). Maybe that's why 'average' people are supposed to do ok at trading – they keep doing something that works.

 

 

You are right Perrin - maybe the key is in finding out and admitting you are average...nothing wrong with that.

 

There are a couple of different folks who gave lectures who were traders re the Turtles....there is a lot of arguments over why, who, how what worked. Not worth it to go there, but i would say that one of the best things i read about it was an admittance by Curtis Faith (I think) in that he realised that at the time when it started he was successful in the program because his job was not to do anything but follow his instructions - his job was to be a robot.

After that once you have learnt a system, understood it, and made it successful - whats wrong with tailoring it to suit your needs or personality or strengths.

 

Robert Greene wrote a recent book about mastery - as a brief summary - do your time, learn your craft, and then show your mastery.

Everyone wants a quick fix, easy answers , everyone wants to be master of their craft in a day. Does not happen (except for through the outliers in large numbers)

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Regarding the turtles, I watched a youtube video on one of them giving a lecture. No offence meant to the guy but while he was giving the lecture and talking to the audience (who were all there to learn how to trade from one of the 'legendary turtles'), he didn't strike me as all that bright. Certainly nothing special.

 

It got me thinking that perhaps the reason for his making money using the strategy, was that he has more of a 'follower' type personality (if there is such a thing). He was able to take the information given to him from his superiors and do it, and keep doing it, and didn't question authority even when things went wrong (like in the Milgram experiment). Maybe that's why 'average' people are supposed to do ok at trading – they keep doing something that works.

 

Although... if they're average, how would they go about figuring out what works in the first place? You have to be a bit different, otherwise you'll be the same as everyone else – which would mean you're in the majority. Which is the right place to be at some times, and is disastrous at other times.

 

Also, if they're average, what happens when the markets change, how do they figure out that the markets are different and that it may be time to adapt their strategy? Maybe that's why he's now giving lectures. Who knows.

 

I think you need intelligence to figure out what works for you, you need to be able to admit when you're wrong (be humble), while being able to carry on in the face of adversity, having confidence in yourself (or system) that if things go wrong you can always change or adapt. Perhaps you need to be a follower, but a follower of yourself.

 

Perhaps he was intelligent enough to faithfully follow the TT system but not smart enough to figure out what to do when it bombed.

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    • NFLX Netflix stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 838.12 and 880.5 at https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • NFLX Netflix stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 838.12 and 880.5 at https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • Hello citizens of the U.S. The hundred year trade war has leaked over into a trading war. Your equity holdings are under attack by huge sovereign funds shorting relentlessly... running basically the opposite of  PPT operations.  As an American you are blessed to be totally responsible for your own assets - the govt won’t and can’t take care of you, your lame ass whuss ‘retail’ fund managers go catatonic  and can't / won’t help you, etc etc.... If you’re going to hold your positions, it’s on you to hedge your holdings.   Don’t blame Trump, don’t blame the system, don’t even blame the ‘enemies’ - ie don’t blame period.  Just occupy the freedom and responsibility you have and act.  The only mistake ‘Trump’ made so far was not to warn you more explicitly and remind you of your options to hedge weeks ago.   FWIW when Trump got elected... I also failed to explicitly remind you... just sayin’
    • Date: 7th April 2025.   Asian Markets Plunge as US-China Trade War Escalates; Wall Street Futures Signal Further Turmoil.   Global financial markets extended last week’s massive sell-off as tensions between the US and its major trading partners deepened, rattling investors and prompting sharp declines across equities, commodities, and currencies. The fallout from President Trump’s sweeping new tariff measures continued to spread, raising fears of a full-blown trade war and economic recession.   Asian stock markets plunged on Monday, extending a global market rout fueled by rising tensions between the US and China. The latest wave of aggressive tariffs and retaliatory measures has unnerved investors worldwide, triggering sharp sell-offs across the Asia-Pacific region.   Asian equities led the global rout on Monday, with dramatic losses seen across the region. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index tumbled more than 8% shortly after the open, while the broader Topix fell over 6.5%, recovering only slightly from steeper losses. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite sank 6.7%, and the blue-chip CSI300 dropped 7.5% as markets reopened following a public holiday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index opened more than 9% lower, reflecting deep concerns about escalating trade tensions.           South Korea’s Kospi dropped 4.8%, triggering a circuit breaker designed to curb panic selling. Taiwan’s Taiex index collapsed by nearly 10%, with major tech exporters like TSMC and Foxconn hitting circuit breaker limits after each fell close to 10%. Meanwhile, Australia’s ASX 200 shed as much as 6.3%, and New Zealand’s NZX 50 lost over 3.5%.   Despite the escalation, Beijing has adopted a measured tone. Chinese officials urged investors not to panic and assured markets that the country has the tools to mitigate economic shocks. At the same time, they left the door open for renewed trade talks, though no specific timeline has been set.   US Stock Futures Plunge Ahead of Monday Open   US stock futures pointed to another brutal day on Wall Street. Futures tied to the S&P 500 dropped over 3%, Nasdaq futures sank 4%, and Dow Jones futures lost 2.5%—equivalent to nearly 1,000 points. The Nasdaq Composite officially entered a bear market on Friday, down more than 20% from its recent highs, while the S&P 500 is nearing bear territory. The Dow closed last week in correction. Oil prices followed suit, with WTI crude dropping over 4% to $59.49 per barrel—its lowest since April 2021.   Wall Street closed last week in disarray, erasing more than $5 trillion in value amid fears of an all-out trade war. The Nasdaq Composite officially entered a bear market on Friday, sinking more than 20% from its recent peak. The S&P 500 is approaching bear territory, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has slipped firmly into correction territory.   German Banks Hit Hard Amid Escalating Trade Tensions   German banking stocks were among the worst hit in Europe. Shares of Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank plunged between 9.5% and 10.3% during early Frankfurt trading, compounding Friday’s steep losses. Fears over a global trade war and looming recession are severely impacting the financial sector, particularly export-driven economies like Germany.   Eurozone Growth at Risk   Eurozone officials are bracing for economic fallout, with Greek central bank governor Yannis Stournaras warning that Trump’s tariff policy could reduce eurozone GDP by up to 1%. The EU is preparing retaliatory tariffs on $28 billion worth of American goods—ranging from steel and aluminium to consumer products like dental floss and luxury jewellery.   Starting Wednesday, the US is expected to impose 25% tariffs on key EU exports, with Brussels ready to respond with its own 20% levies on nearly all remaining American imports.   UK Faces £22 Billion Economic Blow   In the UK, fresh research from KPMG revealed that the British economy could shrink by £21.6 billion by 2027 due to US-imposed tariffs. The analysis points to a 0.8% dip in economic output over the next two years, undermining Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ growth agenda. The report also warned of additional fiscal pressure that may lead to future tax increases and public spending cuts.   Wall Street Braces for Recession   Goldman Sachs revised its US recession probability to 45% within the next year, citing tighter financial conditions and rising policy uncertainty. This marks a sharp jump from the 35% risk estimated just last month—and more than double January’s 20% projection. J.P. Morgan issued a bleaker outlook, now forecasting a 60% chance of recession both in the US and globally.   Global Leaders Respond as Trade Tensions Deepen   The dramatic market sell-off was triggered by China’s sweeping retaliation to a new round of US tariffs, which included a 34% levy on all American imports. Beijing’s state-run People’s Daily released a defiant statement, asserting that China has the tools and resilience to withstand economic pressure from Washington. ‘We’ve built up experience after years of trade conflict and are prepared with a full arsenal of countermeasures,’ it stated.   Around the world, policymakers are responding to the growing threat of a trade-led economic slowdown. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced plans to appeal directly to Washington and push for tariff relief, following the US administration’s decision to impose a blanket 24% tariff on Japanese imports. He aims to visit the US soon to present Japan’s case as a fair trade partner.   In Taiwan, President Lai Ching-te said his administration would work closely with Washington to remove trade barriers and increase purchases of American goods in an effort to reduce the bilateral trade deficit. The island's defence ministry has also submitted a new list of US military procurements to highlight its strategic partnership.   Economists and strategists are warning of deeper economic consequences. Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard, said the scale and speed of these tariffs could result in far more severe damage than previously anticipated. ‘This isn’t just a bilateral conflict anymore — more countries are likely to respond in the coming weeks,’ he noted.   Analysts at Barclays cautioned that smaller Asian economies, such as Singapore and South Korea, may face challenges in negotiating with Washington and are already adjusting their economic growth forecasts downward in response to the unfolding trade crisis.           Oil Prices Sink on Demand Concerns   Crude oil continued its sharp slide on Monday, driven by recession fears and weakened global demand. Brent fell 3.9% to $63.04 a barrel, while WTI plunged over 4% to $59.49—both benchmarks marking weekly losses exceeding 10%. Analysts say inflationary pressures and slowing economic activity may drag demand down, even though energy imports were excluded from the latest round of tariffs.   Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights noted, ‘The market is struggling to find a bottom. Until there’s a clear signal from Trump that calms recession fears, crude prices will remain under pressure.’   OPEC+ Adds Further Pressure with Output Hike   Bearish sentiment intensified after OPEC+ announced it would boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, far surpassing the expected 135,000 bpd. The alliance called on overproducing nations to submit compensation plans by April 15. Analysts fear this surprise move could undo years of supply discipline and weigh further on already fragile oil markets.   Global political risks also flared over the weekend. Iran rejected US proposals for direct nuclear negotiations and warned of potential military action. Meanwhile, Russia claimed fresh territorial gains in Ukraine’s Sumy region and ramped up attacks on surrounding areas—further darkening the outlook for markets.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • AMZN Amazon stock watch, good buying (+313%) toi hold onto the 173.32 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?AMZN
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