Would You Share?

[amory 10]

............As an aside - anyone ever stop to think that most fund managers do share their systems at a price. (fees) You can participate along side them without the work, share in their system for outperforming the markets! Their marketing material and due diligence documents reveal their systems openly.......All they are doing is the operational work for you.

 

Thank you Gekko, Siuya & everyone else who commented on my "offer to share"

.

I never suggested that the computer would take care of the Trading side of it. If we were going to work out something between us & fed it into a computer, we would then use it to tell us what & when to trade. Yes, there are such systems around - heaps of them, by the amount of mail I'm getting & each one claiming infallibility - all I am suggesting is that we can, between us, input what seems to work for us & program it in.

 

Look back if you would, on some of your trades where you failed miserably (if that has never happened to you, then there is no need to read on). When you studied the trade, did you not ask yourself: WHY DID I NOT SEE THAT? OF COURSE IT WASN'T GOING TO WORK! Not enough Trend, or Momentum, or Dynamics etc.

 

The intelligently programmed computer would have seen it (whatever it is). The human eye & brain can see it too, but not within the time that it takes to absorb all the info, process it & place the order on an active market.

 

That last bit is the easy one: placing the order. All I need the computer for, is to tell me what & when. As I said in my original post: Conclusion: all that's required to create the necessary computer program in our line of endeavor, is for several clever people to stick their heads together & along with an expert programmer or two, feed all their clever ideas into it. Remember, there is no limit to what a computer can absorb & calculate.

 

Or what the heck: work alongside your fund manager! I knew all along there must be an easier way.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Fund managers outperform the markets?

[SIUYA 11]

Fund managers outperform the markets?

 

hence my exclamation mark in the original - wondering if that would be picked up

 

In all fairness most fund managers think they can outperform and will show you how they do and how they beet their peers. I have plenty of friends who are fund managers who keep reminding me - and then i ask the crucial question - 'so if i invested with you how much money do i have now' - the answer is often less than i started with - BUT i had out performance!

 

As for zulu trade and rapa capital - they just seem to be an amalgamation of various small traders from what i can tell - I dont know enough to comment - interesting models - I wonder where they really make their money? spreads, commissions somewhere else?

[DbPhoenix 42]

hence my exclamation mark in the original - wondering if that would be picked up

 

In all fairness most fund managers think they can outperform and will show you how they do and how they beet their peers. I have plenty of friends who are fund managers who keep reminding me - and then i ask the crucial question - 'so if i invested with you how much money do i have now' - the answer is often less than i started with - BUT i had out performance!

 

As for zulu trade and rapa capital - they just seem to be an amalgamation of various small traders from what i can tell - I dont know enough to comment - interesting models - I wonder where they really make their money? spreads, commissions somewhere else?

 

Sounds like an example of optimism bias:

This is a well-established bias in which someone’s subjective confidence in their judgments is reliably greater than their objective accuracy. Indeed, we live in an overconfident, Lake Wobegon world (“where all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average”). We are only correct about 80% of the time when we are “99% sure.” Fully 94% of college professors believe they have above-average teaching skills (anyone who has gone to college will no doubt disagree with that). Since 80% of drivers say that their driving skills are above average, I guess none of them drive on the freeway when I do. While 70% of high school students claim to have above-average leadership skills, only 2% say they are below average, no doubt taught by above average math teachers. In a truly terrifying survey result, 92% students said they were of good character and 79% said that their character was better than most people even though 27% of those same students admitted stealing from a store within the prior year and 60% said they had cheated on an exam.

Or perhaps cognitive dissonance.

[4EverMaAT 10]

hence my exclamation mark in the original - wondering if that would be picked up

 

In all fairness most fund managers think they can outperform and will show you how they do and how they beet their peers. I have plenty of friends who are fund managers who keep reminding me - and then i ask the crucial question - 'so if i invested with you how much money do i have now' - the answer is often less than i started with - BUT i had out performance!

 

As for zulu trade and rapa capital - they just seem to be an amalgamation of various small traders from what i can tell - I dont know enough to comment - interesting models - I wonder where they really make their money? spreads, commissions somewhere else?

 

zulutrade makes their money off of commissions per trade. They hook up to the broker's trading servers via api and copy trades directly from the signal provider's account to the zulutrade / follower's account. The follower either has to get a new account from the broker via their Introducing Broker partnership, or if you do not want to sign up for a new account, you have to sign an agreement to add an additional commission in order to accept the trades via zulutrade. You are ranked based on your performance while you are connected to zulutrade, and they are pretty good about showing you actual performance, to prevent people from trying to earn commissions only based on making a lot of senseless trades.

 

MyFxBook is going to introduce a copy trades solution, but they will only pay for winning trades, not all trades to prevent the commission hunters.

 

Rapa is more of a traditional fund broker who links up fund managers/traders with those with capital. They split a 2% management / 20% performance fee with the trader. You have to have live performance, and then you only get paid when you increase the account beyond the original balance and there may be other "hurdle" performance restrictions, to prevent traders from having a large drawdown, then increasing the balance, then getting paid on the increase-after-drawdown.

[AndrewJackson 10]

Lots of people share their trading methods.

I know of 5 profitable systems/methods disclosed in this very forum. Free for the taking. But you have to take time to read the posts. It is not a push button thing, and it is definitely not something you can learn in 5 posts or less.

Give me a hint maybe a couple links to the threads please. Thank you.

[amory 10]

seems to me we are deviating from the original purpose of this thread. Would you share?

 

what's to share? does any one of us possess the perfect system? myself, offering to cooperate in the creation of it, preferably via a sophisticated computer program.

 

for starters, that's what we need to share! by pooling our knowledge & experience.

 

Myself, using a point system .. based on dynamics, MA's, various indicators as well as trends & bends. on charts that is, not news or fundamentals. OK to trade if I achieve 9 points out of 12. it works quite well for me, but it is slow & primitive.

 

compared to what can be done, in order to achieve the perfect signals. the computer can be programmed to keep an eye on any number of items (myself specializing in Forex at the moment) and to analyze fifty or more clues & to give the go-ahead, all this within a couple of seconds.

 

always provided it's been fed the right methods. back to my comparison with a super chess computer: the grandmasters who program it, teach it a few standard openings, all the moves & all the rules & regulations - we are looking at a few hundred of them, maybe more.

 

whereupon it looks seven or eight moves ahead within seconds & beats its own mentors easily! that's the skill we've got to apply to the market.

Edited February 15, 2013 by amory

[Colonel B 10]

seems to me we are deviating from the original purpose of this thread. Would you share?

 

what's to share? does any one of us possess the perfect system? myself, offering to cooperate in the creation of it, preferably via a sophisticated computer program.

What is a perfect system?

 

 

for starters, that's what we need to share! by pooling our knowledge & experience.

Ok

Myself, using a point system .. based on dynamics, MA's, various indicators as well as trends & bends. on charts that is, not news or fundamentals. OK to trade if I achieve 9 points out of 12. it works quite well for me, but it is slow & primitive.

My experience is all that stuff you just mentioned doesn't work. It is probably the most inefficient way to trade or even look at markets. I am not saying it is not logical. However I bet everything you are using is lagging. You will always be at least 2 steps behind. Because of this you will have more risk per trade. You will have larger draw downs. And you want to have a computer trade for you?

 

 

compared to what can be done, in order to achieve the perfect signals. the computer can be programmed to keep an eye on any number of items (myself specializing in Forex at the moment) and to analyze fifty or more clues & to give the go-ahead, all this within a couple of seconds.

/facepalm.... Everything you mentioned so far is retail type of thinking. All we need to do is throw in a few popular catch phrases and we have ourselves a common trading room. My guess is that you are trolling. But if you are not...

 

The problem with computers is that markets are dominated by people. Its mostly people that trade markets. I know its not popular what I am saying. However computers don't act like people. They don't think like people. And most importantly they don't trade like people. So far as I know man has not found a way to teach a computer to feel. Computers work well when you get to the point where you are missing more good trades then you take bad trades. And when you get to that point then you are still better hiring someone to take the trades you are missing. The reason is that computers don't trade like humans.

 

Analyzing 50 or more clues in your situation wont help you. Just from what you presented so far it looks like you don't know what to look for. Looking at 50 random things might help. Might not. Seems like shooting in the dark. Here are some ideas.

 

Can you do what you do in Forex in the Future market? Do you need the large stop out? Are you using correlated markets? Are you looking at the bid/ask? Can you really say you have an advantage over others in the markets you attempt to trade?

[amory 10]

What is a perfect system?

 

Ok

 

My experience is all that stuff you just mentioned doesn't work. It is probably the most inefficient way to trade or even look at markets. I am not saying it is not logical. However I bet everything you are using is lagging. You will always be at least 2 steps behind. Because of this you will have more risk per trade. You will have larger draw downs. And you want to have a computer trade for you?

 

/facepalm.... Everything you mentioned so far is retail type of thinking. All we need to do is throw in a few popular catch phrases and we have ourselves a common trading room. My guess is that you are trolling. But if you are not...

 

The problem with computers is that markets are dominated by people. Its mostly people that trade markets. I know its not popular what I am saying. However computers don't act like people. They don't think like people. And most importantly they don't trade like people. So far as I know man has not found a way to teach a computer to feel. Computers work well when you get to the point where you are missing more good trades then you take bad trades. And when you get to that point then you are still better hiring someone to take the trades you are missing. The reason is that computers don't trade like humans.

 

Analyzing 50 or more clues in your situation wont help you. Just from what you presented so far it looks like you don't know what to look for. Looking at 50 random things might help. Might not. Seems like shooting in the dark. Here are some ideas.

 

Can you do what you do in Forex in the Future market? Do you need the large stop out? Are you using correlated markets? Are you looking at the bid/ask? Can you really say you have an advantage over others in the markets you attempt to trade?

 

Hi there Colonel! I like your aggressive attitude .. a military background, no doubt. I reckon there is nothing like a direct confrontation to clear the air.

 

What would you rather do? confront an enemy force that by far outnumbers you .. but you can see them, fight them! or drive your humvee thru a minefield or maybe into a roadside bomb trap, hoping for the best? Your answer will reveal a lot about how you handle the market.

 

The suggestion that I am trolling .. I find that insulting. I am merely offering a practical suggestion .. if some of you guys find it of value, go ahead & use it & leave me out, it makes no difference to me.

 

Do I have an advantage over others in the markets I attempt to trade .. reply negative. But I keep trying to learn from every mistake & to improve on the methodology as best I can.

 

Note: I never said that the computer should do the trading (for myself alone or for a group with collective input) .. only the resulting system would be SHARED (that's the operative word, is it not?)

 

but it would still be up to the individual participant to make up his/ her mind whether to act on it.

 

Finally, back to my comparison with chess computers: Bobby Fischer who was a chess genius, said similar to what you are saying .. ("... man has not found a way to teach a computer to feel.") He worded it somewhat differently: that a computer has no imagination, that chess is to a great extent a game requiring intuition .. well, he's been proved wrong! I wonder have they as yet been able to teach a computer to learn from its mistakes???

 

Anyway, I am glad we are at least discussing it .. like the middle east peace talks, it may lead nowhere, but it should be done!

[amory 10]

Discussing it? I thought we were trying to talk you out of it.

Middle East "peace talks".....oh, is that what they are? How does that go then? Israel..they get to keep their nukes (the ones they dont officially admit they have) and if they fire them on Iran that will save the US invading.Now the rest of you guys stop bitching about some other country we planted on your land a few decades ago,and stop begrudging the extra land they're helping themselves to as and when they feel like it contary to international laws.And we're not really moved by the sight of dead palestinians,even children,only Israeli children killed whenever Hezbollah fires a few rockets 'cos we decided Hezbollah are the bad guys.Shame all you countries are sitting on so much oil,otherwise i guess we could happily let you all kill each other.And now,...back to those peace talks.

Ok,back to your "practical suggestion".You underestimate the unintended consequences of getting a computor (lets call him Hal 9000) to work with half a dozen conflicting ideas.Have you seen your computor freeze sometimes when you ask it to do several things at once?...so you know it's a very real phenomena.

If you are going to compete with HFT (which you are patently not,since you mention lagging old indicators) then taking things to their logical conclusion ie trading even faster than micro seconds,you'll actually be buying and selling at exactly the same moment.This will result in Hal 9000 reacting in one of 2 ways.Either he will freeze or he will refuse to comply with your wishes and will,instead attempt to protect you from yourself.

"Hal,sell short 5 contracts"

"I'm afraid i can't do that Dave"

"HAL,5 CONTRACTS SHORT!"

(silence)

"Ok Hal, i'll do it manually"

"You're going to find that a little difficult without the express permission of you partners Dave"

"HAL...5 contract short"

"I'm sorry Dave,but this conversation can no longer serve any useful purpose"

 

This thread will now self destruct in...T minus 2 days

 

Thanks Mitsubishi! that is most instructive & entertaining. But I feel that both your political views & your gift for clever dialogue are misplaced in the context of this thread.

 

Where you tell us that a computer will freeze if given a multitude of tasks .. good thing the people who send out probes to explore the planet Mars & beyond never knew that.

 

Because compared to that effort, teaching a computer to do what we are trying to do .. beat the market .. should be child's play. I will concede one point: the program has to be reasonably intelligent. In other words, the team .. uh-oh here he goes trolling again, would have to more or less agree on the basic principles they're going to teach poor old HAL. No use overtaxing his simplistic brain.

 

P.S. the Japanese when they invaded Manchuria & Nanking back in 1937, they didn't worry too much about international law. That's not their car you're driving, is it?

Edited February 16, 2013 by amory

[Gekko78 10]

So in keeping with the original question I posted here I decided to do an experiment.

 

A friend of mine has been bugging me for about a year to "help" him trade his futures account. ( basically tell him how I make money)

 

After countless "No , it is something you need to learn on your own" stuff........I decided to give it to him.

 

2 weeks ago showed him EXACTLY how I trade the futures market. I left nothing out....nothing.

 

 

So he called me yesterday saying that I either lied to him or just made up what I told him because he lost almost all of his money doing what I told him.

 

 

I am guessing that his emotions got to him since I am usually in and out in less than 5 minutes if even that ....maybe even 1 minute. Plus he came from the FX market , as I did when I first started futures , but he did not take the time to learn.

 

I gave him what he asked for .....

 

One thing that I always said to him and continue to say is " You cannot quantum leap to success"

 

So perhaps a profitable strategy can be shared with others as I expect about 50% of them will screw it up anyway and move on to the next "grail"

 

P.S.--- NO I will NOT share it with you either!!

Have a nice day

[Ingot54 13]

So in keeping with the original question I posted here I decided to do an experiment.

 

A friend of mine has been bugging me for about a year to "help" him trade his futures account. ( basically tell him how I make money)

 

After countless "No , it is something you need to learn on your own" stuff........I decided to give it to him.

 

2 weeks ago showed him EXACTLY how I trade the futures market. I left nothing out....nothing.

 

 

So he called me yesterday saying that I either lied to him or just made up what I told him because he lost almost all of his money doing what I told him.

 

 

I am guessing that his emotions got to him since I am usually in and out in less than 5 minutes if even that ....maybe even 1 minute. Plus he came from the FX market , as I did when I first started futures , but he did not take the time to learn.

 

I gave him what he asked for .....

 

One thing that I always said to him and continue to say is " You cannot quantum leap to success"

 

So perhaps a profitable strategy can be shared with others as I expect about 50% of them will screw it up anyway and move on to the next "grail"

 

P.S.--- NO I will NOT share it with you either!!

Have a nice day

Brilliant example of what happens when someone comes to the markets more keen to make money than they are to learn the method.

 

That would have been me at the beginning too ... and I paid some dues ... oh Yeah!

 

And still pay some!

 

Good judgement

Comes from Experience

Experience comes from

Bad judgement

[4EverMaAT 10]

So in keeping with the original question I posted here I decided to do an experiment.

 

A friend of mine has been bugging me for about a year to "help" him trade his futures account. ( basically tell him how I make money)

 

After countless "No , it is something you need to learn on your own" stuff........I decided to give it to him.

 

2 weeks ago showed him EXACTLY how I trade the futures market. I left nothing out....nothing.

 

 

So he called me yesterday saying that I either lied to him or just made up what I told him because he lost almost all of his money doing what I told him.

 

 

I am guessing that his emotions got to him since I am usually in and out in less than 5 minutes if even that ....maybe even 1 minute. Plus he came from the FX market , as I did when I first started futures , but he did not take the time to learn.

 

I gave him what he asked for .....

 

One thing that I always said to him and continue to say is " You cannot quantum leap to success"

 

So perhaps a profitable strategy can be shared with others as I expect about 50% of them will screw it up anyway and move on to the next "grail"

 

P.S.--- NO I will NOT share it with you either!!

Have a nice day

 

I felt compelled to comment on this as I meant to make a similar comment earlier on in the thread. One of the things that made the original turtle trader experiment so interesting was that not all of the turtles were successful, even though:

 

- the group selected to be turtles went through a fairly rigorous selection process.

- they all had direct access to the master trader's strategy, in a clearly laid out form.

- they were supervised at different levels of advancement in the program; all had the ability to ask questions, seek direct guidance whenever they had problems.

- it wasn't even their money that was being traded [so financially they had nothing to 'lose']

- not sure, but I think they even got some minimum compensation for their efforts.

 

But Curtis summed it up nicely:

 

......"In fact, I knew that most of those who spent thousands to learn

these heretofore secret [turtle] rules would end up disappointed, for three reasons:

• The rules wouldn’t be clear, since the people selling them didn’t know how to

trade.

• Even if they were clearly presented, the buyers probably wouldn’t be able to

follow the rules.

• Most of the Turtles are now trading even better rules....... "

 

In addition to the link above, i decided to just attach the rules here for easy reference.

 

I take a different stance on sharing "the secret" with others, so I don't know what to say about the folks trying to keep up this mystique about trading successfully. Seems to just be adding or rehashing the superstitions to managing risk, and those wanting safety and security are drawn to these mysterious methods. I commend Curtis for bringing not just the strategy, but the overall mindset of a successful strategy to light; this is how you counter the falsehoods.

 

Kind of like the internet marketing thing. If you help your clients get to, or closer to, their goal, wouldn't they just naturally pay you to do this?

turtlerules.pdf

[beamerUSA 10]

So I wanted to pose a question to the forum and get some feedback.

 

Now to start off we all no there is no such thing as the "Holy Grail" in trading unless you posses a Delorean and your flux capacitor is fluxing.

 

Nothing is 100% , but let us suppose for a second that you discovered a trading method that proved to be 90% accurate over the past say 2-3 years. You have back tested , forward tested , traded it on a live account and have done quite well for yourself. The method does not require HUGE risk taking.....a simple S/L strategy of no more than 10 ticks. It does require manual action , not a trading robot. ( I am sure one could be created but for the purposes of this question there is not one)

 

If you possessed such a strategy , would you share it with others? Now the catch is if you decide to share it with even 1 person , it will start to die ver quickly and no longer . Seeing as how people say if everyone finds out about a winning system and starts to use it , it will no longer work.

 

Would you share it with anyone seeing as how it will eventually cease to work?

Or would you keep it to yourself ?

 

Now many I have asked would say "well I would make money until I had what I needed then share it" If that is your answer then How much is enough? Would you pick and arbitrary number and once you hit ...stop? Most people have a number but once they reach it the number increases and so on and so on.

 

The 2 reasons why the "get what I need then stop" may not work:

 

1) humans are greedy by nature , when we have what we want , we tend to want more.Not all but most.

2) the number you you need now will more than likely change over time..( remember when you were a teenager and $35,000 a year was awesome and you would be independently wealthy if you made that much)

 

No I wouldnt share but ask them to trade under my instructions and pay me if profitable.

[Ingot54 13]

Well ... I've had a change of heart ... I'm sharing ... and I'm sharing my strategy publicly.

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/forex-trading-laboratory/15784-how-trade-foreign-exchange-market-forex.html'>http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/forex-trading-laboratory/15784-how-trade-foreign-exchange-market-forex.html

 

Let's see who can do what now. :missy:

 

Let's put a few theories to the test, and see how willing and able people are, to follow a method that is working quite well.

 

Let's see my strategy fail now because 400,000 people will now be using it, and it will no longer work profitably. :rofl:

 

Let's see the brokers changing things so the strategy doesn't work any more.

 

What I am thinking is that we may see people UNABLE to help themselves - they may want to tweak, change, add, subtract, detract from and add to the approach, until it no longer resembles the original.

 

The theories are now under the microscope.

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/forex-trading-laboratory/15784-how-trade-foreign-exchange-market-forex.html

[Perrin 10]

Regarding the turtles, I watched a youtube video on one of them giving a lecture. No offence meant to the guy but while he was giving the lecture and talking to the audience (who were all there to learn how to trade from one of the 'legendary turtles'), he didn't strike me as all that bright. Certainly nothing special.

 

It got me thinking that perhaps the reason for his making money using the strategy, was that he has more of a 'follower' type personality (if there is such a thing). He was able to take the information given to him from his superiors and do it, and keep doing it, and didn't question authority even when things went wrong (like in the Milgram experiment). Maybe that's why 'average' people are supposed to do ok at trading – they keep doing something that works.

 

Although... if they're average, how would they go about figuring out what works in the first place? You have to be a bit different, otherwise you'll be the same as everyone else – which would mean you're in the majority. Which is the right place to be at some times, and is disastrous at other times.

 

Also, if they're average, what happens when the markets change, how do they figure out that the markets are different and that it may be time to adapt their strategy? Maybe that's why he's now giving lectures. Who knows.

 

I think you need intelligence to figure out what works for you, you need to be able to admit when you're wrong (be humble), while being able to carry on in the face of adversity, having confidence in yourself (or system) that if things go wrong you can always change or adapt. Perhaps you need to be a follower, but a follower of yourself.

[SIUYA 11]

Regarding the turtles, I watched a youtube video on one of them giving a lecture. No offence meant to the guy but while he was giving the lecture and talking to the audience (who were all there to learn how to trade from one of the 'legendary turtles'), he didn't strike me as all that bright. Certainly nothing special.

 

It got me thinking that perhaps the reason for his making money using the strategy, was that he has more of a 'follower' type personality (if there is such a thing). He was able to take the information given to him from his superiors and do it, and keep doing it, and didn't question authority even when things went wrong (like in the Milgram experiment). Maybe that's why 'average' people are supposed to do ok at trading – they keep doing something that works.

 

 

You are right Perrin - maybe the key is in finding out and admitting you are average...nothing wrong with that.

 

There are a couple of different folks who gave lectures who were traders re the Turtles....there is a lot of arguments over why, who, how what worked. Not worth it to go there, but i would say that one of the best things i read about it was an admittance by Curtis Faith (I think) in that he realised that at the time when it started he was successful in the program because his job was not to do anything but follow his instructions - his job was to be a robot.

After that once you have learnt a system, understood it, and made it successful - whats wrong with tailoring it to suit your needs or personality or strengths.

 

Robert Greene wrote a recent book about mastery - as a brief summary - do your time, learn your craft, and then show your mastery.

Everyone wants a quick fix, easy answers , everyone wants to be master of their craft in a day. Does not happen (except for through the outliers in large numbers)

[Roger Felton 10]

Regarding the turtles, I watched a youtube video on one of them giving a lecture. No offence meant to the guy but while he was giving the lecture and talking to the audience (who were all there to learn how to trade from one of the 'legendary turtles'), he didn't strike me as all that bright. Certainly nothing special.

 

It got me thinking that perhaps the reason for his making money using the strategy, was that he has more of a 'follower' type personality (if there is such a thing). He was able to take the information given to him from his superiors and do it, and keep doing it, and didn't question authority even when things went wrong (like in the Milgram experiment). Maybe that's why 'average' people are supposed to do ok at trading – they keep doing something that works.

 

Although... if they're average, how would they go about figuring out what works in the first place? You have to be a bit different, otherwise you'll be the same as everyone else – which would mean you're in the majority. Which is the right place to be at some times, and is disastrous at other times.

 

Also, if they're average, what happens when the markets change, how do they figure out that the markets are different and that it may be time to adapt their strategy? Maybe that's why he's now giving lectures. Who knows.

 

I think you need intelligence to figure out what works for you, you need to be able to admit when you're wrong (be humble), while being able to carry on in the face of adversity, having confidence in yourself (or system) that if things go wrong you can always change or adapt. Perhaps you need to be a follower, but a follower of yourself.

 

Perhaps he was intelligent enough to faithfully follow the TT system but not smart enough to figure out what to do when it bombed.

[gavind 11]

I think a failover plan would've helped a lot here.