Day Trading the E-mini Futures with Predictor

[Predictor 11]

Buy programs triggering... somewhat late in the day

[Predictor 11]

Tragic school shooting.. full details unknown. Did anyone see if the drop in SP came as news of that broke?

[Predictor 11]

Market looks very capable of testing highs now.. strong order flow and good drive off the lows.

[Predictor 11]

What's interesting is that at 17.50 we had very strong order flow and an order book imbalance... market is reacting to the imbalances above and below the market today.

 

High volume at a single price level often represents a replenished offer and limit resistance... Many large speculators sit outside the market and exhaust the OF using limit orders..

....

 

As we made the peak we had 78% buying or nearly all buying.. Given we haven't driven higher, I'm assuming a portion of that was stop runs.

 

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I'm using 1k volume bars if anyone wants to see what I'm seeing... The ability to track the OF using volume bars and the OF monitor in my software is very powerful when the book imbalances are side-by-side.

Edited December 14, 2012 by Predictor

[Predictor 11]

Anticipating a drive away from this volume... seeing a second surge into this 18 level. Very high % buying

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What's interesting is that every time we come into an OB imbalance higher frequency traders blast in market orders to capture a few ticks.. Typically as we retest the imbalance it will be more likely to give way...

[Predictor 11]

If school shooting turns out to be terrorism... could change things. Will watch my risk here

[Predictor 11]

I've exited my long. Market is det.

[joshdance 10]

If school shooting turns out to be terrorism... could change things. Will watch my risk here

 

As always, anything is possible, but the market does not really care that much about a school shooting in rural Connecticut. A shooting in Manhattan outside the NYSE, maybe. Terrorist activities do not typically occur in places like this. Information like this only clouds judgement and diverts attention from what the market is doing. It is a terrible event, but it should not even enter your mind as far as markets go.

[Predictor 11]

Market has turned considerably more negative from earlier today. A retest or even break of lows is possible.

[Predictor 11]

New order flow drive/buying programs went off in probably in response to fiscal cliff chatter.. However, if this buying isn't able to push to new highs then that would be a negative. A turn here in the order flow to the down side could easily trigger stops below 14.25

[Predictor 11]

We could be driving down to the 1409ish region.. if we do then I'll be a buyer.

[Predictor 11]

Some selling in this area.. if you remember this was my target area from Friday. Market looks weaker then I anticipated. A retest of lows may be in store.. like usually if I trade I'll be focused on long side

[Predictor 11]

A large sell imbalance has developed here. I'm inclined to try a short. The risk is that if the market doesn't go lower then these shorts will be forced to cover...

[Predictor 11]

The pattern that sets up in trend markets is for selling into lows to be absorbed by larger limit order traders and then for the market to move higher. Its important to understand the context to understand how the orderflow will work because it changes.

 

Typically these drives only come from pockets/lows which savvy traders know to avoid. One of the changes is that with these robots imo is that these sorts of drives can come from other areas..

[Predictor 11]

We've had a fairly strong buying drive out of the most recent short imbalance. This may indicate the market is shifting to a momentum nature. The way to trade these short imbalances is always tricky because again the institutions just need to absorb the market orders and hit the other side to trigger the stops. Sellers have responded at the most recent highs.

 

As such, one can try to use a rather tight stop or attempt instead of entering in the higher imbalances of short trade to enter in the lower volume areas where the buying is weaker.

[Predictor 11]

We have a strong direction OF drive out of the 16 region. This is not surprising, guess where? Where the majority of traders got short...

 

This is starting to look more like a stop run.

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We had over 55% dominant buying.. the most recent days I've seen this has indicated stop runs.

[Predictor 11]

BN and OB reported in meeting... feel an agreement would likely be positive for market but only temporarily once the extent of overall stimulus reduction is understood.

[Predictor 11]

Strongly correlated negative OF developing at these highs... indicates market is likely to retest recent lows/return to range

[Predictor 11]

Not a good day for me.. planned to focus on long side but got on short side. Generally take a break when I start to lose..

 

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Meeting is over. Event might lead to change in market

Edited December 17, 2012 by Predictor

[Predictor 11]

A retest of 18-19 could be in play.. if the market rallied due to the meeting/hopes and no hopes fulfilled.

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Limit orders just exhausted buying pressure...

[steve46 12]

I find the gentleman's coments cryptic, uncommunicative, and generally useless, probably because he doesn't really understand what he is talking about...

 

For folks who want to get a handle on this...lets start with sentiment and seasonal elements

 

First, at this time of year, professionals are getting ready to go on vacation. Generally speaking in the US , we have had a good year as compared with Europe. Professionals get paid based on the profits they make for their clients....and whatever they can make on their own accounts....for those of us in the business, the emphasis at this time of year is on risk management (keeping whatever profits we have accrued so far), and trying to drive the market up if possible....news events can always intervene but that is the agenda from a professsional point of view...Be aware that the way this works is counter intuitive..this means that on the open you can often see markets correct down first (at this time of year) to shake the amateurs out, then proceed north..the move down from 6:40 to 7:20 is characteristic of this kind of action..(its called "shaking the tree")...the green arrow shows the conclusion of that shakeout process, and then up they go (resuming the primary seasonal trend)...

 

I suggest new traders start with a standard daily chart, then check the 30 to 10 min time frames because those are the predominate time frames for professional decision making. In terms of entries. I like to wait for price to demonstrate trend, then pullback to a reference point before I act....When price is consolidating, the simplest way to proceed is to identify support and resistance and act only at those extremes....your trading plan should limit entries and have a loss limit that is realistic....for the new trader with a small account, three consecutive losses should signal that you are done for the day...

 

The game is simple..my charts show the previous day's range. I get up early to see how the overnight market acted...as mentioned before, if it is possible I try to get on board early and hold into the open of the regular session....for me that means finding an entry sometime after 3:30 am PST...I do this because it is a low risk way to trade and if I am lucky enough to get the trend right and my entry finds some breathing room, often I will find myself with a nice payday before the markets even open....this it seems to me is perfect for the trader with a small account who wants to limit risk or who cannot trade during regular hours because they have a job or other responsibilities...it also tends to keep you out of the chop during high volatility times.

 

Today;s chart shows a light and dark blue rectangle. this shows the previous range....at this time of year, I want to see a test of the lower boundary of that range....then as price comes back up through I want to get on board as early as possible and hold....today you can see what the result would be....ultimately success in this business is about observing what works, find a way to organize your efforts and having the discipline to execute and manage risk consistently...

 

Good luck folks.

 

Steve

[Predictor 11]

Steve, I shown your comment.. I only read the first few lines then hid it again.

 

What's cryptic about "limit order just exhausted buying pressure" or that "meeting is over" or what is cryptic about the idea that if we had a pop before meeting based on an announcement and no expectations were met that the market could return to area where it pop from?

 

What's so cryptic about that? Anyone watching the actual market can see that usually my calls are spot on.. if they can read tape then they can see it too.

 

Btw since I posted that the OF has turned extremely negative and the market has ticked down..

 

Some instruments have made new lows even. Steve don't answer because I won't read what you write anyway..

 

I guess your "boys are still holding up the market": that's nice Steve.. I don't have buddies who who can move the entire market like clockwork like you've claimed to have. I have to read it in real time and make real trades.

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[Predictor 11]

Higher probability HOD - high of day- is in now... based on my read.

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Buy program just exhausted...

Edited December 17, 2012 by Predictor

[joshdance 10]

Anyone watching the actual market can see that usually my calls are spot on.. if they can read tape then they can see it too.

 

Btw since I posted that the OF has turned extremely negative and the market has ticked down..

 

You have a very selective memory if you say that usually your calls are spot on. I don't really care about calls, but I scratch my head when you write some of the things you do, like "if you'll recall this was my target area from Friday," as if that means something, or "it has ticked down since I posted that," conveniently omitting how you were short 6 handles and 2 hours early. Honestly, it does not matter, and I really do not care if you were to make brilliant calls or terrible ones; what baffles me is how you claim to have such great accuracy, when in fact you are frequently getting suckered in and are on the wrong side (particularly during slow midday times you do this). Hey, we all lose, we all get suckered, we all make mistakes--but you do this and then you sell software and claim how accurate you are, and perhaps you are, but going by your posts, you are not nearly as accurate as you would like to claim or think.

 

From my own periods of winning, and losing, it is my belief that trading well is not really so much about being right, but about taking proper risk with favorable odds. It is clear to me from your posts that you are really focused on being right. After all, you are the "predictor," but trading is not really predicting--at least, this is my belief system. I am posting this because you sell software, and I feel anyone who might purchase should know that it is not at all universally accepted that "anyone watching the actual market" sees you are spot on, lest they think you are selling something that will have such a high degree of accuracy as you claim. I don't care about right calls, or wrong calls, but I do care about statements made that reference others (including myself), which are not accurate.

[Predictor 11]

Josh.. Okay, first you're fundamentally not even understanding what I'm doing here. First I'm not making calls for others to follow me here. I'm providing my real-time read which others can take or leave. I primarily expect others are traders here and have own game plan. This is not a "follow the leader" type thing. I did that for 2 years and had 2 of the top tracked/independently verified futures systems. They are no longer offered. I closed at or near equity highs.

 

My point is that if you're watching the market you can see what the market does from the point of my call/analysis. You can only do this if you're watching in real-time because I edit my posts. No, its true that most traders can't see everything I see without advanced software -- like the kind I've developed. You wouldn't have been able to see the limit orders exhausting the market orders and the short balance building. Obviously steve didn't or he wouldn't have been talking his ridiculousness at just the wrong time. Yes the market dumped to 18 as I called it today.

 

It also put in the HOD as I called it. Josh, right now I'm on a losing streak but keep in mind the last time I was here I had 10 winning days. Not a single losing day and people though I was making up calls and even losing. I did extremely well the first half of this year.

 

The lesson is simple.. don't worry about how I'm doing. If you find my analysis/sharing/calls useful then drop in and say thanks... Again, I'm sharing but not making trade recommendations. I'm not trying to prove myself. I already did and there are better ways to do that.. I never look at forums/calls etc for proof because the quantification isn't precise enough.

 

Also, for the record I was short but i never called that. In fact, I actually said I was going to only take long trades today. I also wrote that a short imbalance had developed but explain that if they weren't able to drive market lower that they'd be forced to cover. I wrote that the first DRIVE to new highs looked like a stop run.That drive did fail... just as an FYI

 

Again I'm sharing real-time analysis. I'm not trying to prove anything. I'm also not trying to compete with any other traders here.

Edited December 17, 2012 by Predictor