Day Trading the E-mini Futures with Predictor

[DionysusToast 10]

DionysusToast: You've shown yourself to be full of dishonesty here. "Amazing took so long to be honest? I've about about had enough of you. You shown a video I made on a certain date and implied that we implemented the feature after you because of that video. I just happened to take a look and see I had a video uploaded the exact same day with the feature you claimed didn't exist at that time. This shot down your theory pretty fast.. instead of apologize you try to twist what was said.

 

I didn't say a word about when we first introduced this feature. I just noted I had never seen it before in another program. Obviously, it was in place months before I made a video on it.

 

lol....

 

Best you are going to get away with here is claiming this is all a coincidence. That your colors on a specific feature of your product just coincidentally happen to be the same color as the same feature on my earlier product.

 

As you mentioned on another thread, you didn't even start developing this till 12 months ago and anyone looking at your screencast account can see you've nothing there earier than September this year (MarketPredictor's library) - so why not be a gentleman about it, admit the colors are the same but give yourself the 'out' that it's all a coincidence.

 

It's much better than trying to convince people I saw your stuff and time-travelled back to April to put it into my product...

 

LESSON 2 - coming soon.

[DionysusToast 10]

Dionysus: I have a better idea. What about you stop bombarding me with false accusations and troll questions? What about you stop spamming this thread with your own insecurities about your software.. and apparently trading abilities too.

 

As a fellow tape reader, I hoped you'd bring something to the table here but you're close to getting placed on ignore. I will lead by example: next post.

 

Actually, it's a fair question.

 

I know a few guys that can't trade and want to get into the mentoring game. As you are in the same position, I was hoping you could help them with the rates.

 

I've already taught them not to say "buy programs initiating" every 5 minutes.

[Predictor 11]

Dio wrote...

"as you are in the same position". So now you are claiming I can't trade? You really shown yourself to be a troll.. whether you wanted to be or not.

[Predictor 11]

My lesson 3001

 

There are infinite narratives to explain any given phenomena. And there is generally no way to prove one narrative over another. As a trader, I have a theory free/agnostic approach. This means I'm not a true believer about any single narrative.

 

Just because there are an infinite number of narratives and way to explain the market, I don't feel that all narratives are created equally. I gravitate to the narratives that are more powerful for me as a trader.. more useful.

 

When I say sell programs or buy programs going off.. it doesn't mean I truly believe that sell or buy programs are going off.. its just a way for me to structure the market. I could take other narratives/approaches but found that one powerful for me.

 

When I see that short traders have mostly sold from a certain level and inventory clearing at that level.. I can structure that to make sense by saying short traders closing positions/clearing inventory. Likewise, when I see long inventory liquidating at market highs then I can use structure that to say.. okay these short term long traders are selling at highs.

 

I think there is a misunderstanding about what I actually believe or that my belief in a narrative is responsible for my trading abilities. I try to provide narratives that are most powerful/useful working for me. I can change narratives if desired, as well. Now what I will say that from my understanding only a small percentage of program activity isactually arb programs because arb is very efficient game.

 

When I look at selling/buying, I'm looking at what are probably algorithms that are run by institutions to acquire and divest large amounts of inventory... These algorithms can become synchronized as market participants re-value the market and that can lead to price drives.

----

 

Anyway, I've shared a lot here but I'm getting tired of the constant harassment. So, I will be sharing less. As I noted, this was a way for me to be my best but I'm not achieving that responding to trolls, other vendors, etc. I was hoping others would take my lead and contribute primarily in real-time. I haven't seen that.. but all number of vendors/gurus/trolls/etc have came on to talk a big talk but none provided real-time analysis except for me.

Edited December 21, 2012 by Predictor

[Predictor 11]

Bias today is cautiously to long side... I'd look for a buy in the 18ish region though.

 

Market looks set to drive higher.. however extreme herding has increased the risk for a trader like me. So I may not even trade.

[Predictor 11]

Look at how they took out the book last night... very low volume.. spike move all the day down to below 1391..

 

You see institutions pulled bids... moves the market

[Predictor 11]

Some of the changes in the current environment are faster moves, more herding, and less response to technical levels. I believe this is due to 2 reasons: news driven trading and HFT.

---

And yes most large funds buy using computer programs. These can take the form of vwap, % max volume of total, and randomized time buys.

[Predictor 11]

I believe they're selling here... inventory levels dropping.

---

Yes, traders use both market and limit orders but each order type has unique benefits. The only order that is guaranteed execution is market order.

---

Majority of mkt shorts are short from 22.25.. move below that and we could get drive to lower.. looks more possible. New inventory has acquired here.. majority of mkt longs are long are long from 23.25

---

We see long inventory building even as the market probes lower... this may be bullish... it may also just be a sign of a larger limit order seller "walking" down the market. This is the recent behavior and a bit new to me.

---

Drive lower looks higher probability.. my game plan is to lie in wait at 18ish for a possible reversal... may work.. may not

Edited December 21, 2012 by Predictor

[Predictor 11]

Big boys walking down the market with limit orders.. caution on long side warranted. Book is really thin... book is thin because liquidity providers been losing money to better informed/news driven traders... and holiday.

[Predictor 11]

Rebid 23.25... market was able to drive higher

--

Rebid 24ish..... book is thin.. not going to chase

[johnw 10]

Big boys walking down the market with limit orders.. caution on long side warranted. Book is really thin... book is thin because liquidity providers been losing money to better informed/news driven traders... and holiday.

 

gm Pred,

 

There has been 4 buys and 2 sells this morning so far plus 1 sell near the open if you are ballsy enough for this kind of play.

Entries and exits are fades so there is always someone on the other side.

 

As for a running commentary... I am not clever/motivated enough to provide one.

[Predictor 11]

john.. this is not really my best environment.. market is saying just get long at a new high but I know as sure as I do then it'll reverse on me. I had a chance 24.50 to get long..

---

Buy programs exhausted at 27.50. Notice we have extreme buying as a limit order seller exhausts all inventory.. then market trends lower on increasing selling

---

Very aggressive longs could attempt to buy in front of 26 HV node of book... I'm waiting for 24ish

[Tams 20]

john.. this is not really my best environment.. market is saying just get long at a new high but I know as sure as I do then it'll reverse on me. I had a chance 24.50 to get long..

---

Buy programs exhausted at 27.50. Notice we have extreme buying as a limit order seller exhausts all inventory.. then market trends lower on increasing selling

---

Very aggressive longs could attempt to buy in front of 26 HV node of book... I'm waiting for 24ish

 

I thought you have a software to guide you on your entry. You commentaries suggest to me that you are doing your own thing without the software. Do you not trust your software?

Edited December 21, 2012 by Tams

[johnw 10]

john.. this is not really my best environment.. market is saying just get long at a new high but I know as sure as I do then it'll reverse on me. I had a chance 24.50 to get long..

---

Buy programs exhausted at 27.50. Notice we have extreme buying as a limit order seller exhausts all inventory.. then market trends lower on increasing selling

---

Very aggressive longs could attempt to buy in front of 26 HV node of book... I'm waiting for 24ish

 

 

Pred,

 

none of that means anything to me ... the spread has been rising unsteadily all morning which means to me that the buys should outnumber the sell opportunities ... and that is what has happened.

All I care about is managing risk ... I do not care what the market is doing.

[Predictor 11]

Got it.. long off the 24.25...

[Predictor 11]

Those paying attention.. you can see how the HFT bots front run the imbalance at 26... very nice action for them.

---

 

I'd like to see a drive higher here. Buyers need to reclaim 28 to demonstrate they are really in control..

---

Limit order buy now walking up the market.. nice LQ providers trying to scratch trades

[Predictor 11]

Market has became more negative since neg. consumer sentiment.. bias is still to long side

---

If market can hold below 22.25 then that would indicate a drive to new lows possible

Edited December 21, 2012 by Predictor

[Predictor 11]

Is the market open all day today? No early close?

-----

Got leverage? Got Corzined?

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-20/if-you-bought-greek-bonds-in-january-you-earned-79-euro-credit.html

--

Recent shorts from 21 and 22.25... buyers need to hold abov 21 and drive above 22.25

 

last post for me...

Edited December 21, 2012 by Predictor

[Predictor 11]

Buying surge looks to be failing.... crowd got short at 55.50... just where the low was... crowd covered at 57.... buy program trigger just above 55.50... I was a bit slow today..

 

Actually the buying had started earlier but isn't synchronized... this leads me to believe the market could still be a range bound market which is why I missed the read.

 

It looks like some funds are buying but selectively..

Edited January 3, 2013 by Predictor

[Predictor 11]

Generally it pays to be careful of selling in the pocket -- although depends on overall market environment. This is where the large limit order traders often sit and will reverse the order flow..

[Predictor 11]

Bias is short... look for restest of lows

[Predictor 11]

Very large volume printing in this 56.76-57.25... large limit supply.. fair amount of negative order flow.. it is conducive for shorts if we hold below this level

[Predictor 11]

Open was 56.50... also where largest long imbalance is..

[Predictor 11]

Large selling developing as we trade below open... buy/sell programs often trigger at such points..

---

weighing a higher probability of range extension below overnight lows...

[Predictor 11]

Herd short from 55.25.. just where the market reversed from.bias is down but also keeping in mind we could be entering a new momentum driven regime.. if I see unusual activity then will slow my trading down until learn this new environment.. if we can trade below 55.25 then some additional range extension would be anticipated..

 

likely last update for today.. (busy)