Day Trading the E-mini Futures with Predictor

[Predictor 11]

I have steve on perma ignore as well... He's a real joker -- claims to have a system which is just his discretionary approach to trading. He even claims he has "his boys" holding up the market. Likes to pretend he is smart and make fun of others.. Not impressed.

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What we seen at the 34 level was short term traders shooting in a lot of orders but unable to clear...

 

At current levels, I'm seeing much more aggressive selling... about 10k new contracts open short or liquidated

[Predictor 11]

Today has been very difficult for me... Exceeded my profit target but the narrow range meant I wasn't able to keep it.

 

I was holding into the fed news. That didn't work at all... However, entering on the range extensions worked well especially when tracking the inventory...

 

Steve, I haven't crowed about anything. What I'm doing is sharing analysis/insight to help myself as a trader.. trying to create a positive environment here... sharing in real-time and in advance..

 

You're welcome to join us.

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A new net -5k balance has developed at current highs... so we're still seeing selling at these levels. However no range extension.. will be shutting down soon.. Too tired to continue.

[Predictor 11]

The 35 level looks to be in play.. question is could we retest even 34... uncertain

[Colonel B 10]

johnw... My sense is that these are correlation traders. The order book dynamics will cause a certain set of dynamics. For example, if many weak hand traders go short/long at the same time then often the market will instant reverse, hit stops, then drop. The reason is somewhat contrary but they created greater demand then was available below them to cover.

 

HFT algorithms might for example try to buy in front of this imbalance (demand area) and resell it for a few ticks. Sophisticated traders use algorithms that can detect such characteristics as well and are reluctant (or their bots are reluctant) to execute into the "pocket" or the hands of the short term traders.

 

However, at times its almost as if the market is forced too move there. The reason is that eventually due to other markets getting out of whack there is a risk free opportunity to take the orders. At that time, the order book imbalances become irrelevant.

 

This is just the way I interpret it. Another interpretation was that the market was going to go there anyway but that it takes some time for the majority to recognize this. During such interval of uncertainty, the market pauses.

 

I don't claim to actually know what happens. I just use descriptions that help me to trade better.

 

SOOOOOOOO TRUE!!!!!!! I can post HUNDREDS of charts showing this phenomenon. I saw some one try to post some over night bar chart to refute this. LOL Its short term players moving the market not the big players. Or big players indirectly move markets. The sign for me every time I take a trade no matter what level or line or magic box I use is to see if there is a jam up of other players. So if I am wanting to get long I wait to see a ton of sellers come in at a price and then go long. This is why I mostly trade the bonds.

[Predictor 11]

Some buying coming in at this 34 level... watching the buying-selling summaries on a 1k volume bar provides unique view into order flow.. seeing some correlated buying here...

[Predictor 11]

Profit target met.. DFD... felt like the traders were actually just placing trades in front of mine today.I know its FIFO though.

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My review..

 

1. My order flow monitor is very powerful for reading the tape/orderflow.

2. Watching color intensities for buying/selling doesn't actually prove that useful for me. It looks cool but not that useful. I'm more concerned with the HV areas, summaries, and my real-time tape read using the OF monitor.

3. Tracking the difference volume using the OrderFlow Bars is extremely useful. I find that setting it to 1k volume bars works really well for reading the OF. The summary information is where the action is at though. It is like each 1k block is an order.. works very well

4. The accumulator/inventory tracking is very powerful.. again by being able to track the net orders.Before I was clearing it/resetting it to see where there was buying/selling coming in at level...

5. In general, best to be out of markets before reports but the volatility provides for tremendous opportunity that can't be ignored. My levels tend to work pretty good with reports... watching the inventory accumulated/tracked proved useful in determining direction

[Predictor 11]

Any touch off the 30.50-31.25 is IMHO a good zone to buy... if we break lower.. all bets are off... fairly correlated selling into the 31.25 limit bids

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Drive now originating off the 31.25... could take us back to 35

[steve46 12]

Today has been very difficult for me... Exceeded my profit target but the narrow range meant I wasn't able to keep it.

 

I was holding into the fed news. That didn't work at all... However, entering on the range extensions worked well especially when tracking the inventory...

 

Steve, I haven't crowed about anything. What I'm doing is sharing analysis/insight to help myself as a trader.. trying to create a positive environment here... sharing in real-time and in advance..

 

You're welcome to join us.

---

 

A new net -5k balance has developed at current highs... so we're still seeing selling at these levels. However no range extension.. will be shutting down soon.. Too tired to continue.

 

 

Us?.....give me a break.....there's no "us" champ.....and what your "doing" is trying to sell software..

 

Now I realize you come from a part of the country where anyone with three teeth is considered an intellectual but really you need to give it a rest...

 

Us.....thats a good one...:haha:

[Predictor 11]

Steve, I've met a few people, very few, in my life who were really smart jerks (polite word). Such a person elicits a strange degree of contempt while commanding an expert authority... Guess what? You're not one of them. Sorry bud! You're just the regular ole jerk. Nothing special. You want to compare my software, which anyone can see the value of, to your trying to sell that you have "your guys" holding up the market? You've been giving the hard sell since I've been here that you're "the expert"... I'm not buying it. Suggest you go back to your thread/den...

 

I won't be reading any more of your messages which are on ignore by default. I don't like to be nasty but you've been trolling ever since I've been here.

[Predictor 11]

I thought I'd answer the question that some people seem to be asking which is why share/post here? For me, I view trading performance, at least for me day trading, as the process of a highly developed state of feedback and flow. As a trader, I'm constantly taking a "pulse" of the market using order flow and other methods. I'm, also, constantly taking an introspective "pulse" of my own mind. Futures trading at high leverage is a very risky game to play. I need to maintain my sense of awareness at all times and keep my thinking process clear.

 

I believe that posting/sharing my thoughts can help me to stay in the flow state and help me to take better trades. I monitor how this effects activity effects my performance, as well. If it gets in the way then I can make adaptations. I found that it can get in the way when I get more concerned about posting timely updates over taking timely trades. As such, trading always comes first and posts here will always be lagged.

 

I do not post here explicitly so that others can follow my trades. I do not typically read or consider other trader's analysis because I have my own game plan. The past 2 days at the HOD traders were encouraging me to follow the trend and get long. If I lose money then it will be on MY CALLS. However, that doesn't mean that others can't do that.. Some may get value in that.

 

I see the thread helping in 2 ways as such as: 1. Traders posting own analysis and trades for own benefit.. It is best if trades post simple factual data such as "Market made new high" for best analysis. However, some of us are not willing to share everything. I share a lot but I'm not sharing everything. It takes years to get where I'm at. Sorry, not giving it away. and 2. Traders can read others analysis if they wish.

 

I see that some people are frustrated that I'm not posting in a way that allows them to tag along. I hope this clears that's not my purpose. The purpose as I see it... is so that traders can post their own thoughts to keep their own heads clear and share analysis when they desire. My 2 cents.

Edited December 13, 2012 by Predictor

[steve46 12]

I thought I'd answer the question that some people seem to be asking which is why share/post here? For me, I view trading performance, at least for me day trading, as the process of a highly developed state of feedback and flow. As a trader, I'm constantly taking a "pulse" of the market using order flow and other methods. I'm, also, constantly taking an introspective "pulse" of my own mind. Futures trading at high leverage is a very risky game to play. I need to maintain my sense of awareness at all times and keep my thinking process clear.

 

I believe that posting/sharing my thoughts can help me to stay in the flow state and help me to take better trades. I monitor how this effects activity effects my performance, as well. If it gets in the way then I can make adaptations. I found that it can get in the way when I get more concerned about posting timely updates over taking timely trades. As such, trading always comes first and posts here will always be lagged.

 

I do not post here explicitly so that others can follow my trades. I do not typically read or consider other trader's analysis because I have my own game plan. The past 2 days at the HOD traders were encouraging me to follow the trend and get long. If I lose money then it will be on MY CALLS. However, that doesn't mean that others can't do that.. Some may get value in that.

 

I see the thread helping in 2 ways as such as: 1. Traders posting own analysis and trades for own benefit.. It is best if trades post simple factual data such as "Market made new high" for best analysis. However, some of us are not willing to share everything. I share a lot but I'm not sharing everything. It takes years to get where I'm at. Sorry, not giving it away. and 2. Traders can read others analysis if they wish.

 

I see that some people are frustrated that I'm not posting in a way that allows them to tag along. I hope this clears that's not my purpose. The purpose as I see it... is so that traders can post their own thoughts to keep their own heads clear and share analysis when they desire. My 2 cents.

 

Have to agree with the Colonel on this one. Other than sales pitch, I have yet to read anything that resembles "analysis"....mostly "CYA".....could be this, could be that....

 

Looking forward to more of the same....

Edited December 14, 2012 by steve46

[Tams 20]

LOL... it would be fun to dig up the story on this guy... he used to post under another name. He made all kinds of claims about his prediction ability, yet he has a small account and can't afford to trade a micro contract. Now he wants to sell his holy grail software. There is nothing new under the sun... History (comedy) repeats itself.

[steve46 12]

LOL... it would be fun to dig up the story on this guy... he used to post under another name. He made all kinds of claims about his prediction ability, yet he has a small account and can't afford to trade a micro contract. Now he wants to sell his holy grail software. There is nothing new under the sun... History (comedy) repeats itself.

 

 

Agree....I think human nature being what it is....most folks don't have the time or the inclination to dig into the subject matter.....and simply ignore the sales pitch..

[Predictor 11]

I've found it is rather easy to identify traders who are serious and likely to be winners vs those likely to be "born losers". It really comes down to a choice. The losers want put a lot of effort into other areas. For example, they take a great effort in appearing smart, knowledgeable, or trying to push an agenda. Trading for them is secondary to wanting to appear smart or make witty comments. They know that nobody cares about what they have to say unless they're trying to put others down. So, that's the only way they can get the attention they crave. The problem for them is that there are lots of smarter people who are really knowledgeable.

 

Some people can't seem to stand that there are people actually out there making valuable products. They can't understand why a trader, of all people, who produce a trading program to better his trading. You might think such people would live in a primitive fashion without electricity or running water or other "evil inventions" but yet they find their way onto the internet.

 

I've learned it is best not to try to help these types because they are "born losers". They don't value the work and effort it takes to win. Really, they do what they enjoy.. trolling around in chat rooms or pontificating about how smart they are or trying to get free stuff or push an agenda. If anyone considering my products stupid enough to listen to the trolls that attack me then I don't want them as a customer. That'd just be a headache.

 

Lesson: Don't be a born loser. Don't reply to born losers. Don't read what born losers write. Why? Because if you read that then its saying that you're not serious about your trading, either. Are you more concerned with writing complete,proper sentences versus your traiding? That's a warning sign because winning trading is about TOTAL FOCUS and INTENTION. Do you try to correct people who are factually wrong and make derogatory statements about you? That's a warning sign. What would it say about my focus if I replied to every "wrong" idiot on the internet or tried to correct them?

 

I've both tams and the other guy on ignore. Please don't copy/paste what they write (to me) or else I will place you on ignore too.

[Tams 20]

Success requires no explanation,

Failure permits no alibi.

 

If you predicted an entry price, and the market came to that price, but did not fill you.

Are you a success? or are you a failure?

[steve46 12]

Success requires no explanation,

Failure permits no alibi.

 

If you predicted an entry price, and the market came to that price, but did not fill you.

Are you a success? or are you a failure?

 

Well I was trained to react, rather than predict, but whatever comes I can deal with it.

 

and since I am here trading the overnight market I guess will share some small "secrets" for those who might be paying attention...

 

Trading the Flash PMI (tonight was the German version), I was trained to pre-position off the London Open....it turns out that the PMI is released early to a small group of subscribers (about 2-3 minutes early)...and further there is a lot of (lets call it "speculation") among certain groups that leads to what we call an early "tell"....usually characterized by a wide range bar right off the open....that bar or candle provides a clue as to the bias....

 

We have two (2) entries off that open, one depends on the size of the opening bar or candle and the other happens at 12:15am....you simply read the Time & Sales and watch the first 10 seconds of that bar or candle....entry is in the direction of that first impulse move...holding until 1 minute prior to the release....

 

Tonight was an excellent example of what we call a "layup"....good for 5-6 NQ points......with very low risk...if you knew what you were doing....

 

Really too bad whats his name is ignoring us, normally we would have the pleasure of his erudite comments about HFT and "correllation"...oh and of course "flow"............

 

 

Wishing you a Merry Christmas Tams....

 

Edit

 

Here you go Prediktor....I see your name at the bottom of the screen....."ignoring" my posts.

Edited December 14, 2012 by steve46

[Predictor 11]

I've started to see correlated positive orderflow occuring at higher highs... looks like a retest of highs in play

[Predictor 11]

Sellers have established inventory from 15 to 17. If we can hold above this short inventory then they'll be forced to close and we can assume larger institutional traders are taking the inventory. If we trade lower then they'll be in the profit and will have no reason to clear higher.

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One of nice things about my new inventory tracking is that I can actually see where market traders are long and short from. In range markets.. both sides will be in the hole.

[Predictor 11]

Theres a large imbalance in book at 18 holding up the market. Anticipate buying to take it shortly... again seeing correlated order flow running 30%+ over recent few prices.

[Predictor 11]

My sense is that majority of sellers are short from 15.25 and longs from around 18. We've reverted to the median.. anticipate a run higher. Trading below the 15.25 would be negative.

[Predictor 11]

I plan to roll after today... still plenty of liquidity.

[Predictor 11]

Sellers starting to test the 15.25. This is not the activity I want to see. We need to see buyers come in and now drive away or else this would be a negative.. So far they aren't able to drive price and so the market bounces higher but need to see strong buying come in now

[johnw 10]

Sellers starting to test the 15.25. This is not the activity I want to see. We need to see buyers come in and now drive away or else this would be a negative.. So far they aren't able to drive price and so the market bounces higher but need to see strong buying come in now

 

Hi Pred,

 

Just as a matter of interest, why have you not rolled yet.

H13 is carrying almost 50% more vol, so where do you see the advantage in staying with Z12

[Tams 20]

Sellers starting to test the 15.25. This is not the activity I want to see. We need to see buyers come in and now drive away or else this would be a negative.. So far they aren't able to drive price and so the market bounces higher but need to see strong buying come in now

 

who cares what you want to see ???

the market does what it wants anyway. I thought you could predict.

Edited December 14, 2012 by Tams

[Predictor 11]

Buyers responding very aggressively to the new... that's a positive. A push back back above 18 would be bullish for a run to ON highs