Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

MadMarketScientist

Day Trading the E-mini Futures with Predictor

Recommended Posts

I have steve on perma ignore as well... He's a real joker -- claims to have a system which is just his discretionary approach to trading. He even claims he has "his boys" holding up the market. Likes to pretend he is smart and make fun of others.. Not impressed.

---

 

What we seen at the 34 level was short term traders shooting in a lot of orders but unable to clear...

 

At current levels, I'm seeing much more aggressive selling... about 10k new contracts open short or liquidated

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today has been very difficult for me... Exceeded my profit target but the narrow range meant I wasn't able to keep it.

 

I was holding into the fed news. That didn't work at all... However, entering on the range extensions worked well especially when tracking the inventory...

 

Steve, I haven't crowed about anything. What I'm doing is sharing analysis/insight to help myself as a trader.. trying to create a positive environment here... sharing in real-time and in advance..

 

You're welcome to join us.

---

 

A new net -5k balance has developed at current highs... so we're still seeing selling at these levels. However no range extension.. will be shutting down soon.. Too tired to continue.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
johnw... My sense is that these are correlation traders. The order book dynamics will cause a certain set of dynamics. For example, if many weak hand traders go short/long at the same time then often the market will instant reverse, hit stops, then drop. The reason is somewhat contrary but they created greater demand then was available below them to cover.

 

HFT algorithms might for example try to buy in front of this imbalance (demand area) and resell it for a few ticks. Sophisticated traders use algorithms that can detect such characteristics as well and are reluctant (or their bots are reluctant) to execute into the "pocket" or the hands of the short term traders.

 

However, at times its almost as if the market is forced too move there. The reason is that eventually due to other markets getting out of whack there is a risk free opportunity to take the orders. At that time, the order book imbalances become irrelevant.

 

This is just the way I interpret it. Another interpretation was that the market was going to go there anyway but that it takes some time for the majority to recognize this. During such interval of uncertainty, the market pauses.

 

I don't claim to actually know what happens. I just use descriptions that help me to trade better.

 

SOOOOOOOO TRUE!!!!!!! I can post HUNDREDS of charts showing this phenomenon. I saw some one try to post some over night bar chart to refute this. LOL Its short term players moving the market not the big players. Or big players indirectly move markets. The sign for me every time I take a trade no matter what level or line or magic box I use is to see if there is a jam up of other players. So if I am wanting to get long I wait to see a ton of sellers come in at a price and then go long. This is why I mostly trade the bonds.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Profit target met.. DFD... felt like the traders were actually just placing trades in front of mine today.I know its FIFO though.

----

My review..

 

1. My order flow monitor is very powerful for reading the tape/orderflow.

2. Watching color intensities for buying/selling doesn't actually prove that useful for me. It looks cool but not that useful. I'm more concerned with the HV areas, summaries, and my real-time tape read using the OF monitor.

3. Tracking the difference volume using the OrderFlow Bars is extremely useful. I find that setting it to 1k volume bars works really well for reading the OF. The summary information is where the action is at though. It is like each 1k block is an order.. works very well

4. The accumulator/inventory tracking is very powerful.. again by being able to track the net orders.Before I was clearing it/resetting it to see where there was buying/selling coming in at level...

5. In general, best to be out of markets before reports but the volatility provides for tremendous opportunity that can't be ignored. My levels tend to work pretty good with reports... watching the inventory accumulated/tracked proved useful in determining direction

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Any touch off the 30.50-31.25 is IMHO a good zone to buy... if we break lower.. all bets are off... fairly correlated selling into the 31.25 limit bids

----

Drive now originating off the 31.25... could take us back to 35

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Today has been very difficult for me... Exceeded my profit target but the narrow range meant I wasn't able to keep it.

 

I was holding into the fed news. That didn't work at all... However, entering on the range extensions worked well especially when tracking the inventory...

 

Steve, I haven't crowed about anything. What I'm doing is sharing analysis/insight to help myself as a trader.. trying to create a positive environment here... sharing in real-time and in advance..

 

You're welcome to join us.

---

 

A new net -5k balance has developed at current highs... so we're still seeing selling at these levels. However no range extension.. will be shutting down soon.. Too tired to continue.

 

 

Us?.....give me a break.....there's no "us" champ.....and what your "doing" is trying to sell software..

 

Now I realize you come from a part of the country where anyone with three teeth is considered an intellectual but really you need to give it a rest...

 

Us.....thats a good one...:haha:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Steve, I've met a few people, very few, in my life who were really smart jerks (polite word). Such a person elicits a strange degree of contempt while commanding an expert authority... Guess what? You're not one of them. Sorry bud! You're just the regular ole jerk. Nothing special. You want to compare my software, which anyone can see the value of, to your trying to sell that you have "your guys" holding up the market? You've been giving the hard sell since I've been here that you're "the expert"... I'm not buying it. Suggest you go back to your thread/den...

 

I won't be reading any more of your messages which are on ignore by default. I don't like to be nasty but you've been trolling ever since I've been here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I thought I'd answer the question that some people seem to be asking which is why share/post here? For me, I view trading performance, at least for me day trading, as the process of a highly developed state of feedback and flow. As a trader, I'm constantly taking a "pulse" of the market using order flow and other methods. I'm, also, constantly taking an introspective "pulse" of my own mind. Futures trading at high leverage is a very risky game to play. I need to maintain my sense of awareness at all times and keep my thinking process clear.

 

I believe that posting/sharing my thoughts can help me to stay in the flow state and help me to take better trades. I monitor how this effects activity effects my performance, as well. If it gets in the way then I can make adaptations. I found that it can get in the way when I get more concerned about posting timely updates over taking timely trades. As such, trading always comes first and posts here will always be lagged.

 

I do not post here explicitly so that others can follow my trades. I do not typically read or consider other trader's analysis because I have my own game plan. The past 2 days at the HOD traders were encouraging me to follow the trend and get long. If I lose money then it will be on MY CALLS. However, that doesn't mean that others can't do that.. Some may get value in that.

 

I see the thread helping in 2 ways as such as: 1. Traders posting own analysis and trades for own benefit.. It is best if trades post simple factual data such as "Market made new high" for best analysis. However, some of us are not willing to share everything. I share a lot but I'm not sharing everything. It takes years to get where I'm at. Sorry, not giving it away. and 2. Traders can read others analysis if they wish.

 

I see that some people are frustrated that I'm not posting in a way that allows them to tag along. I hope this clears that's not my purpose. The purpose as I see it... is so that traders can post their own thoughts to keep their own heads clear and share analysis when they desire. My 2 cents.

Edited by Predictor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I thought I'd answer the question that some people seem to be asking which is why share/post here? For me, I view trading performance, at least for me day trading, as the process of a highly developed state of feedback and flow. As a trader, I'm constantly taking a "pulse" of the market using order flow and other methods. I'm, also, constantly taking an introspective "pulse" of my own mind. Futures trading at high leverage is a very risky game to play. I need to maintain my sense of awareness at all times and keep my thinking process clear.

 

I believe that posting/sharing my thoughts can help me to stay in the flow state and help me to take better trades. I monitor how this effects activity effects my performance, as well. If it gets in the way then I can make adaptations. I found that it can get in the way when I get more concerned about posting timely updates over taking timely trades. As such, trading always comes first and posts here will always be lagged.

 

I do not post here explicitly so that others can follow my trades. I do not typically read or consider other trader's analysis because I have my own game plan. The past 2 days at the HOD traders were encouraging me to follow the trend and get long. If I lose money then it will be on MY CALLS. However, that doesn't mean that others can't do that.. Some may get value in that.

 

I see the thread helping in 2 ways as such as: 1. Traders posting own analysis and trades for own benefit.. It is best if trades post simple factual data such as "Market made new high" for best analysis. However, some of us are not willing to share everything. I share a lot but I'm not sharing everything. It takes years to get where I'm at. Sorry, not giving it away. and 2. Traders can read others analysis if they wish.

 

I see that some people are frustrated that I'm not posting in a way that allows them to tag along. I hope this clears that's not my purpose. The purpose as I see it... is so that traders can post their own thoughts to keep their own heads clear and share analysis when they desire. My 2 cents.

 

Have to agree with the Colonel on this one. Other than sales pitch, I have yet to read anything that resembles "analysis"....mostly "CYA".....could be this, could be that....

 

Looking forward to more of the same....

Edited by steve46

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

LOL... it would be fun to dig up the story on this guy... he used to post under another name. He made all kinds of claims about his prediction ability, yet he has a small account and can't afford to trade a micro contract. Now he wants to sell his holy grail software. There is nothing new under the sun... History (comedy) repeats itself.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
LOL... it would be fun to dig up the story on this guy... he used to post under another name. He made all kinds of claims about his prediction ability, yet he has a small account and can't afford to trade a micro contract. Now he wants to sell his holy grail software. There is nothing new under the sun... History (comedy) repeats itself.

 

 

Agree....I think human nature being what it is....most folks don't have the time or the inclination to dig into the subject matter.....and simply ignore the sales pitch..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've found it is rather easy to identify traders who are serious and likely to be winners vs those likely to be "born losers". It really comes down to a choice. The losers want put a lot of effort into other areas. For example, they take a great effort in appearing smart, knowledgeable, or trying to push an agenda. Trading for them is secondary to wanting to appear smart or make witty comments. They know that nobody cares about what they have to say unless they're trying to put others down. So, that's the only way they can get the attention they crave. The problem for them is that there are lots of smarter people who are really knowledgeable.

 

Some people can't seem to stand that there are people actually out there making valuable products. They can't understand why a trader, of all people, who produce a trading program to better his trading. You might think such people would live in a primitive fashion without electricity or running water or other "evil inventions" but yet they find their way onto the internet.

 

I've learned it is best not to try to help these types because they are "born losers". They don't value the work and effort it takes to win. Really, they do what they enjoy.. trolling around in chat rooms or pontificating about how smart they are or trying to get free stuff or push an agenda. If anyone considering my products stupid enough to listen to the trolls that attack me then I don't want them as a customer. That'd just be a headache.

 

Lesson: Don't be a born loser. Don't reply to born losers. Don't read what born losers write. Why? Because if you read that then its saying that you're not serious about your trading, either. Are you more concerned with writing complete,proper sentences versus your traiding? That's a warning sign because winning trading is about TOTAL FOCUS and INTENTION. Do you try to correct people who are factually wrong and make derogatory statements about you? That's a warning sign. What would it say about my focus if I replied to every "wrong" idiot on the internet or tried to correct them?

 

I've both tams and the other guy on ignore. Please don't copy/paste what they write (to me) or else I will place you on ignore too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Success requires no explanation,

Failure permits no alibi.

 

If you predicted an entry price, and the market came to that price, but did not fill you.

Are you a success? or are you a failure?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Success requires no explanation,

Failure permits no alibi.

 

If you predicted an entry price, and the market came to that price, but did not fill you.

Are you a success? or are you a failure?

 

Well I was trained to react, rather than predict, but whatever comes I can deal with it.

 

and since I am here trading the overnight market I guess will share some small "secrets" for those who might be paying attention...

 

Trading the Flash PMI (tonight was the German version), I was trained to pre-position off the London Open....it turns out that the PMI is released early to a small group of subscribers (about 2-3 minutes early)...and further there is a lot of (lets call it "speculation") among certain groups that leads to what we call an early "tell"....usually characterized by a wide range bar right off the open....that bar or candle provides a clue as to the bias....

 

We have two (2) entries off that open, one depends on the size of the opening bar or candle and the other happens at 12:15am....you simply read the Time & Sales and watch the first 10 seconds of that bar or candle....entry is in the direction of that first impulse move...holding until 1 minute prior to the release....

 

Tonight was an excellent example of what we call a "layup"....good for 5-6 NQ points......with very low risk...if you knew what you were doing....

 

Really too bad whats his name is ignoring us, normally we would have the pleasure of his erudite comments about HFT and "correllation"...oh and of course "flow"............

 

 

Wishing you a Merry Christmas Tams....

 

Edit

 

Here you go Prediktor....I see your name at the bottom of the screen....."ignoring" my posts.

5aa7118e4c90c_PMIScreen.thumb.PNG.e4b115614def0a5dba85f02b0dace8fc.PNG

gotcha.thumb.PNG.5e61f9be49c12bd85a6c63afc446e6d5.PNG

Edited by steve46

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sellers have established inventory from 15 to 17. If we can hold above this short inventory then they'll be forced to close and we can assume larger institutional traders are taking the inventory. If we trade lower then they'll be in the profit and will have no reason to clear higher.

---

One of nice things about my new inventory tracking is that I can actually see where market traders are long and short from. In range markets.. both sides will be in the hole.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sellers starting to test the 15.25. This is not the activity I want to see. We need to see buyers come in and now drive away or else this would be a negative.. So far they aren't able to drive price and so the market bounces higher but need to see strong buying come in now

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Sellers starting to test the 15.25. This is not the activity I want to see. We need to see buyers come in and now drive away or else this would be a negative.. So far they aren't able to drive price and so the market bounces higher but need to see strong buying come in now

 

Hi Pred,

 

Just as a matter of interest, why have you not rolled yet.

H13 is carrying almost 50% more vol, so where do you see the advantage in staying with Z12

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Sellers starting to test the 15.25. This is not the activity I want to see. We need to see buyers come in and now drive away or else this would be a negative.. So far they aren't able to drive price and so the market bounces higher but need to see strong buying come in now

 

who cares what you want to see ???

the market does what it wants anyway. I thought you could predict.

Edited by Tams

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • DELL Dell Technologies stock, good day moving higher off the 90.99 double support area, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?DELL
    • MCK Mckesson stock, nice trend and continuation breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?MCK
    • lmfx just officially launched their own LMGX token, Im planning to grab a couple of hundred and maybe have the option to stake them. 
    • Date: 2nd April 2025.   Market on Edge: Tariff Announcement and Volatility Ahead!   The US economic and employment data continues to deteriorate with the job vacancies figures dropping to a 5-month low. In addition to this, the IMS Manufacturing PMI also fell below expectations. However, both the US Dollar and Gold declined simultaneously following the release of the two figures, an uncommon occurrence in the market. Traders expect a key factor to be today’s ‘liberation day’ where the US will impose tariffs on imports. USDJPY - Traders Await Tariff Confirmation! Traders looking to determine how the USDJPY will look today will find it difficult to determine until the US confirms its tariff plan. Today is the day when Trump previously stated he would finalize and announce his tariff plan. The administration has not yet released the policy, but investors expect it to be the most expansionary in a century. President Trump is due to speak at 20:00 GMT. On HFM's Calendar the speech is stated as "US Liberation Day Tariff Announcement". Currently, analysts are expecting Trump’s Tariff Plan to impose tariffs on the EU, chips and pharmaceuticals later today as well as reciprocal tariffs. Economists have a good idea of how these tariffs may take effect, but reciprocal tariffs are still unspecified. In addition to this, 25% tariffs on the car industry will start tomorrow. The tariffs on the foreign cars industry are a factor which will particularly impact Japan. Although, traders should note that this is what is expected and is not yet finalised. Last week, President Trump stated that he would implement retaliatory tariffs but allow exemptions for certain US trade partners. Treasury Secretary Mr Bessent and National Economic Council Director Mr Hassett suggested that the restrictions would primarily target 15 countries responsible for the bulk of the US trade deficit. However, yesterday, Trump contradicted these statements, asserting that additional duties would be imposed on any country that has implemented similar measures against US products. The day’s volatility will depend on which route the US administration takes. The harshness of the policy will influence both the Japanese Yen as well as the US Dollar.   USDJPY 5-Minute Chart   US Economic and Employment Data The JOLT Job Vacancies figure fell below expectations and is lower than the previous month’s figure. The JOLT Job Vacancies read 7.57 million whereas the average of the past 6 months is 7.78 million. The ISM Manufacturing Index also fell below the key level of 50.00 and was 5 points lower than what analysts were expecting. The data is negative for the US Dollar, particularly as the latest release applies more pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. However, this is unlikely to happen if the trade policy ignites higher and stickier inflation. In the Bank of Japan’s Governor's latest speech, Mr Ueda said that the tariffs are likely to trigger higher inflation. USDJPY Technical Analysis Currently, the Japanese Yen Index is the worst performing of the day while the US Dollar Index is more or less unchanged. However, this is something traders will continue to monitor as the EU session starts. In the 2-hour timeframe, the USDJPY is trading at the neutral level below the 75-bar EMA and 100-bar SMA. The RSI and MACD is also at the neutral level meaning traders should be open to price movements in either direction. On the smaller timeframes, such as the 5-minute timeframe, there is a slight bias towards a bullish outcome. However, this is only likely if the latest bearish swing does not drop below the 200-Bar SMA.     The key resistant level can be seen at 150.262 and the support level at 149.115. Breakout levels are at 149.988 and 149.674. Key Takeaway Points: Job vacancies hit a five-month low, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI missed expectations, adding pressure on the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions. Traders await confirmation on Trump’s tariff policy, which is expected to impact the EU, chips, pharmaceuticals, and foreign car industries. The severity of the tariffs will influence both the JPY and the USD, with traders waiting for final policy details. The Japanese Yen Index is the worst index of the day while the US Dollar Index is unchanged. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • HLF Herbalife stock, watch for a bull flag breakout above 9.02 at https://stockconsultant.com/?HLF
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.