Day Trading the E-mini Futures with Predictor

[MadMarketScientist 11]

By request, we are moving Predictor's running commentary into its own thread.

 

MMS

[Predictor 11]

I'm finished for today but this 1404-1406 region is a region where a reversal is more likely to develop...

[Predictor 11]

Large imbalance in book at 6.50-7.00 retracement likely.

[Predictor 11]

GDP revision seems to be driving factor here..

[Predictor 11]

Bias is short at current levels... risk is higher. Last update for today.

[Predictor 11]

Not sure if I will trade today.. a bit tired from working on my software overnight. Some of my models suggest a low of around 1411 with high of 1420+ possible. I believe this is over optimistic. I'm thinking we trade down to around 1404-1405.

 

I'm short biased but even so may focus on a long reversals off the 11 and 04 instead of getting short early.

Edited November 30, 2012 by Predictor

[Predictor 11]

Currently short.. feel 12 is acting as an attractor but will likely see lower.

 

Bias is now long.. tested 12, held. last update..

Edited November 30, 2012 by Predictor

[rtg 10]

Currently short.. feel 12 is acting as an attractor but will likely see lower.

 

Bias is now long.. tested 12, held. last update..

 

Good morning. Based on prior highs, R1 and a bit of instinct, i took a short @ 1418. I am targeting 1410, taking half off and adding a 10 tick T/S. good luck today.

[Predictor 11]

Market looks set to move higher.. if 12.50 taken retest of 16.25 is very possible

[Predictor 11]

Took a medium loss. If you look at my calls they were spot on today but I executed the game plan poorly.

 

I was able to spot most of the turning points spot on with the orderbook imbalances. Nearly every major pivot low today were OB imbalances. Huge imbalance at the 10 -- shorts trying to get filled. What made it difficult for me was there was a heavy sell side imbalance at the 14, as well. I waited forever for the 16 but not long enough.

 

Today had a good game plan, pegged the day structure, knew the lows, and my software pointed out the pivot swings but series of small errors coupled with tight range made it difficult to pull off.

[Predictor 11]

Retest of 1404-1405 looks like a possibility... Been super busy readying my software for release but the last several days would have been great trading for my style.

 

If I take any trades today then that's the best setup I feel, although weighing possibility of a break lower..

 

Order flow is heavy to the sell side indicating lack of interest in the new highs... however I feel shorts are still higher risk and will try to keep to long side.

[Predictor 11]

Some buying coming in off the 5.75 anticipate this buying to fail.. looks like high frequency algorithmic activity

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Seller pushed just below to 5.25 but buying momentum is now building... price now at 7ish

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Buy side book thinning? May indicate drive lower imminent

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As long as buyers hold 5.75ish then they should be assumed in control.. was anticipating one more flush out but seems slow to come..

Edited December 4, 2012 by Predictor

[Predictor 11]

In highly mean reverting market/tight range.. all the buying will be at the highs and selling at the lows as liquidity providers take other side and exhaust both sides.. seeing that sort of activity now...

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Market long... feeling the waters.. wrong move

 

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Added to long.. very selectively when under water.

Edited December 4, 2012 by Predictor

[Predictor 11]

Buy programs going off now... taking out OB imbalances... likely to drive to retest 7ish

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For those who believe the book in futures is spoofed (not talking stocks).. There were about 4,000 orders listed off the 5 and then about 4,000 transacted.. So if there pulled orders there weren't many.

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Nice strong OF drive here... will be looking to see what happens around 6.75-7ish... a drive to 8 is possible.. will be reducing size.

Edited December 4, 2012 by Predictor

[Predictor 11]

Lot of supply coming in form of iceberg around 7ish.. trade is more two-sided.

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This supply led to OF drive.. down from 7... may offer out/exit there... test of 8 still seems a possible play

[Predictor 11]

Market looks set to retest 7-8

[Predictor 11]

Algorithms very clearly running stops today.... they run the stops at the lows and then the highs.

[Predictor 11]

Lot of reports today..

 

Economic Calendar - Bloomberg

 

ADP report was negative.... break below 1404 could produce a large sell off

 

Keeping an open mind now but was planning to go long but now seeing these reports entertaining the short side

[Predictor 11]

Currently short... will cover at 1404 but anticipate break lower..

[Predictor 11]

Buy side OF was somewhat aggressive when I came in this morning.. frothy...

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I added (and have reduced) my short exposure... when the OF turns two-sided then often its a sign of topping/bottoming... the direction will follow.. we had some nice OF imbalances up in the upper 9's too

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Paying close attention to 5.50s... may go flat before next report. 5.50 is buy side mode

[Predictor 11]

Have reversed to long....

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Flat again.... short time before report

 

Keeping an open mind still..

[rtg 10]

Have reversed to long....

 

why not just stay flat until ISM comes out and buy/sell on retrace? could change daily sentiment quite easily

[Predictor 11]

Market looks set to test higher... 4ish held

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Added to long...

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Strong buying here... boehner speaking

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That was short lived... another interpretation is mrkt is building value lower...

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Added long but will attempt to clear off this position... bias is shifting to short side

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Some buy programs going off here...

Edited December 5, 2012 by Predictor

[Predictor 11]

Wondering if 4.50 will be good for much longer... not much room for long trades off 4.50

[Predictor 11]

Reversed to short as 4.50 failed.... so far profitable.. had exceeded my profit target today early but didn't take all of them... will attempt to offer around 4.50..

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Long target just above the 1ish