Puzzles for Traders

[Patuca 13]

thh 3/8

hth 3/8

htt 3/8

tht 3/8

 

your sequence is htt. all the others have an equal probability on three tosses of being hit. now on being the sequence before yours not sure but i think it would be around 20% if there is one coin tossed 12 times. the problem is that the more coins tossed (participants in the contest) and the (amount of tosses) made, both affect the probabilities. i could be off on this but i think that the amount coins tossed and the amount of tosses somehow enters into the solution. it would seem that they would have to enter into the problem???

 

in general

 

1. Greater sample sizes produce more accurate probabilities

2. If the possible outcomes in which an element is present is increased, the probability of that element also increases.

 

i'm just not sure how to apply 1 and 2 above into this problem. i never was too good at math anyway. too busy looking at the girls in school. too busy drawing pictures and shooting spit balls and other unimportant things while in class.

Edited January 20, 2013 by Patuca

[snowbird 10]

It's a turntable bridge!!!!!

[Mysticforex 13]

It's a turntable bridge!!!!!

 

Here on the East Coast of the US, we would call that a "Swing" bridge.

As opposed to a "Draw " bridge or "Lift" bridge.

 

The Amtrak bridge that crosses The Mystic River is a Swing bridge. Vessels transiting the area should always take the Starboard channel, unless otherwise indicated by navigational aids.

 

Bridge tenders monitor VHF channel 13. call them and ask if you have any questions.

 

My current ticket is 100 Ton Master - Near Coastal.

[Patuca 13]

It's a turntable bridge!!!!!

nope. it is a regular size Fixed bridge.

[PrymeTyme 10]

nope. it is a regular size Fixed bridge.

 

if the bridge is a sort of `obstacle` , u go arround ´it´ while crossing ´it´

 

:evil tongue:

[SIUYA 11]

You are a prisoner sentenced to death. The Emperor offers you a chance to live by playing a simple game. He gives you 50 black marbles, 50 white marbles and 2 empty bowls. He then says, 'Divide these 100 marbles into these 2 bowls. You can divide them any way you like as long as you use all the marbles. Then I will blindfold you and mix the bowls around. You then can choose one bowl and remove ONE marble. If the marble is WHITE you will live, but if the marble is BLACK... you will die.'

 

How do you divide the marbles up so that you have the greatest probability of choosing a WHITE marble?

[SIUYA 11]

Do this quickly....

 

Count The number of F's in the paragraph below

 

FINISHED FILES ARE THE

RESULT OF YEARS OF SCIENTIFIC

STUDY COMBINED WITH THE

EXPERIENCE OF YEARS

[BlueHorseshoe 10]

You are a prisoner sentenced to death. The Emperor offers you a chance to live by playing a simple game. He gives you 50 black marbles, 50 white marbles and 2 empty bowls. He then says, 'Divide these 100 marbles into these 2 bowls. You can divide them any way you like as long as you use all the marbles. Then I will blindfold you and mix the bowls around. You then can choose one bowl and remove ONE marble. If the marble is WHITE you will live, but if the marble is BLACK... you will die.'

 

How do you divide the marbles up so that you have the greatest probability of choosing a WHITE marble?

 

I haven't thought about this too carefully but . . .

 

You have absolutely no control over the second part of the process (which bowl), so the best probability would be 50/50, in which case the best division would be to put all the white marbles into one bowl and all the black marbles into another?

 

BlueHorseshoe

[MightyMouse 12]

You are a prisoner sentenced to death. The Emperor offers you a chance to live by playing a simple game. He gives you 50 black marbles, 50 white marbles and 2 empty bowls. He then says, 'Divide these 100 marbles into these 2 bowls. You can divide them any way you like as long as you use all the marbles. Then I will blindfold you and mix the bowls around. You then can choose one bowl and remove ONE marble. If the marble is WHITE you will live, but if the marble is BLACK... you will die.'

 

How do you divide the marbles up so that you have the greatest probability of choosing a WHITE marble?

 

He should put 25 w and 25 black into each bowl.

 

No matter which bowl he gets he has a 50% chance of living.

[addchild 10]

You are a prisoner sentenced to death. The Emperor offers you a chance to live by playing a simple game. He gives you 50 black marbles, 50 white marbles and 2 empty bowls. He then says, 'Divide these 100 marbles into these 2 bowls. You can divide them any way you like as long as you use all the marbles. Then I will blindfold you and mix the bowls around. You then can choose one bowl and remove ONE marble. If the marble is WHITE you will live, but if the marble is BLACK... you will die.'

 

How do you divide the marbles up so that you have the greatest probability of choosing a WHITE marble?

 

Bowl 1: 50 black marbles and 40 white marbles

 

Bowl 2: 10 white marbles

 

 

Choose the bowl that contains the least amount of marbles, (weighs the least), as that bowl has only white marbles.

[SIUYA 11]

Bowl 1: 50 black marbles and 40 white marbles

 

Bowl 2: 10 white marbles

 

 

Choose the bowl that contains the least amount of marbles, (weighs the least), as that bowl has only white marbles.

 

you cant choose the bowl by weight etc;

you need to divide the marbles, then while blindfolded choose the bowl, eg; left or right.

but a good guess and along the exact right lines.

 

Ans: 1 white one in a bowl, 99 in the other bowl.

 

Result: chance of choosing a white is 100% from one bowl or 49 from 99 from the second bowl.

ie; 1+49/99 from 2 choices. Or close to 75% chance.

[talond 10]

I thought we were going to get the answer to the bridge question over the weekend. The suspense is killing me.

[MightyMouse 12]

I thought we were going to get the answer to the bridge question over the weekend. The suspense is killing me.

 

He was riding his moto with a handgun in each fist and unfortunately missed the bridge and ended up in the Patuca river.

[Patuca 13]

He was riding his moto with a handgun in each fist and unfortunately missed the bridge and ended up in the Patuca river.

The Patuca River is a very tough jungle environment. no Holiday Inns. no real stores. no malls. forget hospitals or clinics. want electricity? bring your own.electricity. running water plenty- the river. Mostly foot paths and donkey trails . jaguars and dangerous snakes.

 

You will sleeping most likely on river banks, in thatch roof houses when invited, under makeshift thatch huts, or in tents. it is a very hot humid environment. get ready for jungle rot.

 

ready for a trip MM? we will get you another jackass down there so you won't have to ride one from your gunless abode.

 

Ready? seize the day with passion and enthusiasm :rofl: :haha:

 

PS you don't have to read about adventure. you can become the adventure!

Edited January 22, 2013 by Patuca

[Patuca 13]

I thought we were going to get the answer to the bridge question over the weekend. The suspense is killing me.

people won't give up the magical word --- "uncle"

[MightyMouse 12]

:cool:The Patuca River is a very tough jungle environment. no Holiday Inns. no real stores. no malls. forget hospitals or clinics. want electricity? bring your own.electricity. running water plenty- the river. Mostly foot paths and donkey trails . jaguars and dangerous snakes.

 

You will sleeping most likely on river banks, in thatch roof houses when invited, under makeshift thatch huts, or in tents. it is a very hot humid environment. get ready for jungle rot.

 

ready for a trip MM? we will get you another jackass down there so you won't have to ride one from your gunless abode.

 

Ready? seize the day with passion and enthusiasm :rofl: :haha:

 

PS you don't have to read about adventure. you can become the adventure!

 

Sounds intriguing and dangerous.

[Gekko78 10]

Yes seriously I am dying to know the answer to this....

 

UNCLE ,UNCLE!!

[liahwy 10]

people won't give up the magical word --- "uncle"

 

Uncle Uncle Uncle Uncle Uncle Uncle Uncle Uncle Uncle Uncle

 

There I said it for everybody....can we have the answer now?

[NeoTrader 10]

He walked up one side of the bridge, crossed over and walked back down the other side.

[Patuca 13]

He walked up one side of the bridge, crossed over and walked back down the other side.

how could he do this at exactly the same time? same day. same bridge. please explain. Edited January 23, 2013 by Patuca

[Patuca 13]

Uncle Uncle Uncle Uncle Uncle Uncle Uncle Uncle Uncle Uncle

 

There I said it for everybody....can we have the answer now?

thanks you for your kind and humble attitude. also the other person (gekko) that publically said uncle. you guys know when to take your stop losses. the other "smart" people on this thread must be too arrogant to accept their stop losses??? well except captain bob ..he did, however he did keep taking positions again after geeting stopped out. i suppose he saw "reversals" coming? ...i need a few more public "uncles" (four more "uncles" so i have 7 clear "uncles") to render up the "profit". either they will admit defeat...bite the bullet.. or feign "no interest".... puzzles can do alot for traders. teach us to accept losses.

 

we can never learn to trade until we are willing to bite the bullet WAY BEFORE we blow our account. of course with MM it is "bite the golf club" (see thread on arm/disarm for more info).

 

i am waiting..i have time...

 

PS remember it is actually very simple. so simple you will be really pissed when the profit target is reached and you were stopped out. maybe the others aren't really arrogant but just have "bigger" stops and are swing puzzling instead day puzzling?? i may get banned for life???:rofl: :rofl:

Edited January 23, 2013 by Patuca

[talond 10]

There were two bridges. He crossed one while at the same time going around the other. If that's not it then Bob ! or Uncle!

 

Well.. Bobs your uncle heheh

 

oh by the way. Stop loss? What's a stop loss?

[Patuca 13]

remember the only way to "see" the profit target is to get stopped out and admit it publically or guess the riddle at which point you will immediatley become inducted into the puzzler hall of fame for traders. i don't see that happening ...but who knows... records are made to be broken and puzzles are made to be solved.

 

the answer is actually quite rudimentary and elementary.

 

you know i actually started getting a real education when i got done with colleging? what about you guys? :haha:

[talond 10]

ok one more guess. He is Catholic. While going around the bridge he made the sign of the cross, thus crossing it at the same time as going around it.

 

ok, uncle after that one! LOL

[Gekko78 10]

thanks you for your kind and humble attitude. also the other person (gekko) that publically said uncle. you guys know when to take your stop losses. the other "smart" people on this thread must be too arrogant to accept their stop losses??? well except captain bob ..he did, however he did keep taking positions again after geeting stopped out. i suppose he saw "reversals" coming? ...i need a few more public "uncles" (four more "uncles" so i have 7 clear "uncles") to render up the "profit". either they will admit defeat...bite the bullet.. or feign "no interest".... puzzles can do alot for traders. teach us to accept losses.

 

we can never learn to trade until we are willing to bite the bullet WAY BEFORE we blow our account. of course with MM it is "bite the golf club" (see thread on arm/disarm for more info).

 

i am waiting..i have time...

 

PS remember it is actually very simple. so simple you will be really pissed when the profit target is reached and you were stopped out. maybe the others aren't really arrogant but just have "bigger" stops and are swing puzzling instead day puzzling?? i may get banned for life???:rofl: :rofl:

 

I understand you theory here , as far as taking SL, and that you want people to admit when the situation goes against them. If we had real money on this riddle many would have given in a long time ago ....since we are in DEMO mode here the guesses will keep on coming. Most people do not like to admit defeat so the will BHP ( Buy , Hold , Pray) until they are proven right even if it means the lose 90% of the funds.

 

We are playing an emotional game here where there is nothing of real value to be lost.

Perhaps those of us that already accepted that we were wrong could get told the answer in a PM so we can move on to the next trade??

 

Gekko