Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Duarte

Why S&P 500 will be much higher in 5 years?

Recommended Posts

US equities are climbing rapidly. The S&P has added 15 points so far and the Dow has soared 125 points already.

There has a huge amount of positive US macro data recently starting with the Consumer Spending for March rising 0.2%. Additionally, incomes rose 0.2%. Then Pending Home Sales for rose 1.5% for March since February.

 

This week has been even better with jobless claims decline being responsible for the US indices soaring. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/15950-bloomberg-updates-7.html#post179349

I fully agree that the S&P will be higher in 5 years, but it will take some extensive analysis to substantiate that claim. One thing I can be sure of is that the S&P will be at a higher level on June 1, 2013.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am going to look to the period between 1967 and 1984, as well as, for the period between 2000 and 2013.

As I have written before now, my guess about what is happening is that the S&P 500 since 2000 is following the path between 1968 and 1984.

At this time the key is to understand if the breakout above the long-term resistance line was or not decisive.

When the breakout is decisive, the resistance level then becomes a support level, but I don´t know yet whether or not this will happen. My big question is this: Will red support line hold?

 

lyRHojC.png

 

BSu4Flp.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  Duarte said:
I'll try to explain why the S&P 500 will be much higher in 5 years.

(It's a guess, not a certainty.)

 

Chart 1 - S & P500 index monthly candlestick chart between March 1964 and January 2013.

 

My guess about what is happening is that the S & P 500 since 2000 is following the path between 1968 and 1983.

This suggests that the S&P 500 may rise in the long term.

 

 

Chart 2 - The following chart shows the Price ROC indicator between March 1964 and January 2013.

 

The triple bottom pattern that the indicator did in 1994 was repeated between 2011 and 2012.

After the triple bottom pattern in 1994, the S&P 500 rose during 5 years.

This also suggests that the S&P 500 may rise in the long term.

 

I would rather say Quantitative Easing (QE) can be one of the factor which will help S&P 500 index to touch a new higher, may be couple of years down the line. (Fundamental point of view on the market).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The long term market timer portfolios went down its first month since the start.

Following 7 consecutive months of rises, the S&P 500 fell in June.

 

 

Note:

On 10 Jun 10 there was a 2 –for- 1 Stock Split for the ProShares UltraPro S&P500 (UPRO).

 

 

The following are the long-term market timer portfolios:

 

5BsLFa2.png

e7rwGT0.png

4XOEdPd.png

 

b54agwr.png

LDSwMgO.png

KseJICa.png

 

TR09DAI.png

2p3w8P2.png

lcRMK2e.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

S&P will always be higher in any 5 years gap just as the inflation rate is higher in any 5 years gap and value of the currency is weaker in any 5 years period.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The portfolios reached yesterday a new annual maximum monthly.

Specifically, the long term market timer high risk portfolio reached 53,59% yesterday, a new annual maximum monthly.

It has remarkable how quickly the market goes up. The S&P 500 has fallen just one month since the beginning of the year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I will put stop loss orders in all open positions.

An increased number of technical indicators that I use for short term trading are changing to sell signal and I have more doubts than usual about the future direction of the market in short term.

 

Ooq7VKx.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  peterevanson said:
Hey,

Nice market analysis you did. Hope so everything will go smoothly.:)

 

Thank you.

 

 

 

Today I close these portfolios and I start another US long term stock market timer portfolio in the forum.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The goal was to share long term trading ideas in the forum and make a good result in the portfolio. I think that the goal has been reached. This result was mostly achieved by the analysis of S&P 500 made in January 2013.

I hope that the result in next portfolio will go the same away.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  Duarte said:
The goal was to share long term trading ideas in the forum and make a good result in the portfolio. I think that the goal has been reached. This result was mostly achieved by the analysis of S&P 500 made in January 2013.

I hope that the result in next portfolio will go the same away.

 

looking forward to see it....will you make a new thread or continue here?

 

 

regards,

 

TW

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  tradingwizzard said:
looking forward to see it....will you make a new thread or continue here?

 

 

regards,

 

TW

 

Thank you.

I will create a new thread with the name “US Long term market timer portfolio.”

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • NFLX Netflix stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 838.12 and 880.5 at https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • Date: 8th April 2025.   Markets Rebound Cautiously as US-China Tariff Tensions Deepen     Global markets staged a tentative recovery on Tuesday following a wave of volatility sparked by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. The Asia-Pacific region showed signs of stability after a chaotic start to the week—though some pockets remained under pressure. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 4.4%, dragged lower by losses in tech heavyweight TSMC. The world’s largest chipmaker fell another 4% on Tuesday and has now slumped 13.5% since April 2, when US President Donald Trump first unveiled what he called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.   However, broader sentiment across the region turned more positive, with several markets rebounding sharply after Monday’s dramatic sell-offs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged over 6% in early trading, rebounding from an 18-month low. South Korea’s Kospi rose marginally, and Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.9%, driven by strength in mining stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.6%, though still far from recovering from Monday’s 13.2% crash—its worst day since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.9%.   In Europe, DAX and FTSE 100 are up more than 1% in opening trade. EU Commission President von der Leyen repeated yesterday that the EU had offered reciprocal zero tariffs on manufactured goods previously and continues to stand by that offer. Others are also trying again to talk to Trump to get some sort of agreement that limits the impact.   Much of the rally appeared to be driven by dip-buying, as well as hopes that the intensifying trade war could still be defused through negotiations.   China Strikes Back: ‘We Will Fight to the End’   Tensions reached a boiling point after Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports unless Beijing rolled back its retaliatory measures by April 8. ‘If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long-term trading abuses by tomorrow... the United States will impose additional tariffs on China of 50%,’ Trump declared on social media.   If implemented, the new tariffs would bring total US duties on Chinese goods to a staggering 124%, factoring in the existing 20%, the 34% recently announced, and the proposed 50%.   In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a stern warning, stating: ‘The US threat to escalate tariffs is a mistake on top of a mistake... If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.’ The ministry also called for equal and respectful dialogue, though signs of compromise on either side remain scarce.   Beijing acted quickly to contain a market fallout. State funds intervened to support equities, and the People’s Bank of China set the yuan fixing at its weakest level since September 2023 to boost export competitiveness. Additionally, five-year interest rate swaps in China fell to their lowest levels since 2020, indicating potential for further monetary easing.   Trump Talks Tough on EU Too   Trump’s hardline approach extended beyond China. Speaking at a press conference, he rejected the European Union’s offer to eliminate tariffs on cars and industrial goods, accusing the bloc of ‘being very bad to us.’ He insisted that Europe would need to source its energy from the US, claiming the US could ‘knock off $350 billion in one week.’   The EU, meanwhile, backed away from a proposed 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey, opting instead for 25% duties on selected US goods in response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs.     Volatile Wall Street Adds to the Drama   Wall Street experienced wild swings on Monday as investors processed the rapidly evolving trade conflict. The S&P 500 briefly fell 4.7% before rebounding 3.4%, nearly erasing its losses in what could have been its biggest one-day jump in years—if it had held. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank by as much as 1,700 points early in the day but later climbed nearly 900 points before closing 349 points lower, down 0.9%. The Nasdaq ended up 0.1%.   The brief rally was fueled by a false rumour that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs—rumours that the White House quickly labelled ‘fake news.’ The market's sharp reaction underscored how desperate investors are for any sign that tensions might ease.   Oil Markets in Focus: Goldman Sachs Revises Forecasts   Crude prices also reflected the uncertainty, with US crude briefly dipping below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021. As of early Tuesday, Brent crude was trading at $64.72, while WTI hovered around $61.26.   Goldman Sachs, in a note dated April 7, lowered its average price forecasts for Brent and WTI through 2025 and 2026, citing mounting recession risks and the potential for higher-than-expected supply from OPEC+.       Under a base-case scenario where the US avoids a recession and tariffs are reduced significantly before the April 9 implementation date, Goldman sees Brent at $62 per barrel and WTI at $58 by December 2025. These figures fall further to $55 and $51, respectively, by the end of 2026. This outlook also assumes moderate output increases from eight OPEC+ countries, with incremental boosts of 130,000–140,000 barrels per day in June and July.   However, should the US slip into a typical recession and OPEC production aligns with the bank’s baseline assumptions, Brent could retreat to $58 by the end of this year and to $50 by December 2026.   In a more bearish scenario involving a global GDP slowdown and no change to OPEC+ output levels, Brent prices might fall to $54 by year-end and $45 by late 2026. The most extreme projection—based on a simultaneous economic downturn and a full reversal of OPEC+ production cuts—would see Brent plunge to below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026.   Goldman noted that oil prices could outperform forecasts significantly if there was a dramatic shift in tariff policy and a surprise in global demand recovery.   Cautious Optimism, But Warnings Persist   With both Washington and Beijing showing no signs of backing down, markets are likely to remain volatile in the days ahead. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming trade meetings and policy decisions, hoping for clarity in what has become one of the most unpredictable trading environments in recent years.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • CVNA Carvana stock watch, rebound to 166.56 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?CVNA
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.