EURUSD Discussions

[Ammeo 10]

With the clock ticking, Republicans seek a solution to raising debt limit, but not a fight - The Washington Post

[Mysticforex 13]

Last week the market hurt the euro shorts Part of this may have been the poor NFP in the US. The market momentum then took the EURUSD to the cusp of the 1.37 handle before relaxing. Today, news that the ECB is considering a negative interest on deposits at the central bank took the market lower, and the pair down under 1.36.

 

Tomorrow is US Retail Sales, which even if they remain the same might be considered good with the harsh Winter we have been experiencing. And on Friday is European GDP. Europe has shrugged off the recession, but their economy remains the global laggard.

[Ammeo 10]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis February 17, 2014 Forecast » Fx Empire Network

[$5DAW 10]

For the third week in a row the large specs have flipped their position, this time back to a short euro position. It sure looks like the big specs have been getting chopped up in this market. Open interest was up 24K to 343K which is a big market. The tootal spec short in the euro is now 39K. Spreading, usually option trade is up to 12.8% of the market.

 

 

I have to ask, Where are you getting this information? Open Interest 343K ??? Must be "Cash/Spot" data,,,, but from whom?

[Mysticforex 13]

I have to ask, Where are you getting this information? Open Interest 343K ??? Must be "Cash/Spot" data,,,, but from whom?

 

A friend. Ralph Shell. Met him about 6 years ago. His Son in Law , and partner have over 41K Forex IB accts.

You can sign up for his blog here: CASH BACK FOREX REBATES | WE BEAT ANY COMPETITOR RATES!

It's free.

 

Short Bio: His graduate studies were in economics and history at Duke University. Shell has ten years experience trading cash commodities in domestic and export markets. He is also a former commodity analyst with Merrill Lynch in Chicago. Shell was a member of and floor trader at the Chicago Board of Trade for 18 years. Shell is now located in Palm Beach County Florida.

[tradingwizzard 10]

A friend. Ralph Shell. Met him about 6 years ago. His Son in Law , and partner have over 41K Forex IB accts.

You can sign up for his blog here: CASH BACK FOREX REBATES | WE BEAT ANY COMPETITOR RATES!

It's free.

 

Short Bio: His graduate studies were in economics and history at Duke University. Shell has ten years experience trading cash commodities in domestic and export markets. He is also a former commodity analyst with Merrill Lynch in Chicago. Shell was a member of and floor trader at the Chicago Board of Trade for 18 years. Shell is now located in Palm Beach County Florida.

 

I'm speechless....

 

TW

[Mysticforex 13]

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Oanda Open Orders.

[Ammeo 10]

So we have something near 1.378x (weekly close)...and 1.383x very high volume area non retraced. It's not going there 100% of the time, but that's the area i'll closely monitor for big shorts.

 

Then i don't know, maybe near 1.41xx/1.42xx daily for some shorts if it breaks 1.40....

[Mysticforex 13]

So we have something near 1.378x (weekly close)...and 1.383x very high volume area non retraced. It's not going there 100% of the time, but that's the area i'll closely monitor for big shorts.

 

Then i don't know, maybe near 1.41xx/1.42xx daily for some shorts if it breaks 1.40....

 

 

Agree... but I think 14000 will be a tough nut to crack. Big round number.

[tradingwizzard 10]

So we have something near 1.378x (weekly close)...and 1.383x very high volume area non retraced. It's not going there 100% of the time, but that's the area i'll closely monitor for big shorts.

 

Then i don't know, maybe near 1.41xx/1.42xx daily for some shorts if it breaks 1.40....

 

I would rather say we're in for a correction now towards 1.3650/20 area before a pop higher

 

TW

[Ammeo 10]

Agree... but I think 14000 will be a tough nut to crack. Big round number.

 

Yes 14000 is was just my thought if it goes that high. Personally dont thing it'll be there that easily.

[Ammeo 10]

The EURUSD is jumping very sharply from the 1.3640 support zone. The pair is likely to find resistance at around the 1.3720/30 zone. If the pair fails around the mentioned level, then we witness a down move again in the pair towards the 1.3660 level again. We should wait for some time now, and observe price action very carefully.

[Mysticforex 13]

While Putin is preparing to have some fun roughing up the hapless Ukrainians, the ruble has been sinking. The Ukraine instability is one reason, but there might also be a ruble run as money is fleeing from emerging markets. How long will this last and how long before Gasprom raises the gas price for all of Europe?

 

It is unfortunate that Western Europe has a bully for one of their near neighbors. Since they are so reliant on the Russians for their energy needs, the European economy is vulnerable should the Ukrainian crises accelerate. While the euro may be gaining on the ruble today, however, it would not take much adversity to end the tepid European recovery.

[Mysticforex 13]

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[Ammeo 10]

Some links to EURUSD Forecasts for the first week of March..

 

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis March 3, 2014 Forecast » Fx Empire Network

 

EUR/USD Forecast | Forex Crunch

 

EUR/USD March 2014 Forecast

[Mysticforex 13]

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[Ammeo 10]

3760 is apparently the number to hit in order to form a top. The break above 3895 brought 4250 into play so 3760 needs to go or tech-wise is set up for 4250.

 

This, from the weekly charts.

 

Reiterating my stance, not touching EU until it reaches 4200 or so, going to use my equity on more UJ and NZD longs. Re-analysis after my miscall on short EU @3825 and even 3881

[tradingwizzard 10]

3760 is apparently the number to hit in order to form a top. The break above 3895 brought 4250 into play so 3760 needs to go or tech-wise is set up for 4250.

 

This, from the weekly charts.

 

Reiterating my stance, not touching EU until it reaches 4200 or so, going to use my equity on more UJ and NZD longs. Re-analysis after my miscall on short EU @3825 and even 3881

 

I like eurusd to the upside but not right now.....a move into the 1.37 area seems to be mandatory before anything.....usdjpy is pretty bearish at these levels in my opinion

 

TW

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

I like eurusd to the upside but not right now.....a move into the 1.37 area seems to be mandatory before anything.....usdjpy is pretty bearish at these levels in my opinion

 

TW

 

Hi,

 

You just hit the nail on the head. We are also looking at a pullback into the 1.3824/1.3792 area before another push higher again.

 

For USDJPY, a corrective pullback into the 102.82/3 levels is the likely scenario.

[Ammeo 10]

Forex Analysis: EUR/USD Reaches New Long-Term High before Retreat

EUR/USD (daily chart) reached a new 2+ year high of 1.3914 in early trading on Friday before retreating after the dollar-strengthening US Non-Farm Payrolls report. This high slightly surpasses the previous long-term high of 1.3892 that was established at the end of 2013.

 

The upside breakout comes after a substantial rally on Thursday, and tentatively confirms a continuation of the generally bullish trend that has been in place since the July low near 1.2750. Within this uptrend, the past month has seen a rebound and steady rise from a pullback that hit a February low of 1.3475, near the key 38% Fibonacci retracement of the bullish trend.

 

Despite the slight pullback after the U.S. employment report, the general bias currently remains bullish for the EUR/USD. With follow-through on the breakout and continued momentum above 1.3900, the bullish trend would have its next major upside targets around the 1.4000 psychological level and then the 1.4250 resistance level. Key downside support on another pullback continues to reside around the 1.3700 level.

Edited March 9, 2014 by tradingwizzard

[Ammeo 10]

EUR/USD Forecast March 10-14

EUR/USD had a superb week, riding on the inaction of the ECB to reach levels last seen in 2011. Is it the beginning of a long rally? Industrial production data, Eurogroup and ECOFIN Meetings and inflation data are the highlights of this week. Here is an outlook on the major events and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

 

After the ECB made no changes in rates, Draghi gave the euro a big boost. as he refrained from taking action to ease pressure on short-term borrowing rates caused by European banks paying back LTRO loans. Some analysts expected Draghi would end sterilization of its SMP program. The lack of news was excellent news for the euro. In the US, Non-Farm Payrolls surprised to the upside, and this stopped the rally, but EUR/USD remains on high ground.

 

 

French Industrial Production: Monday, 7:45. France’s industrial production declined 0.3% in December, following a sharp rise of 1.2% in the previous month. Economists expected a smaller drop of 0.1%. Output declined in transport equipment as well as energy products, however motor vehicles went up. French manufacturing showed signs of improvement, but remained in contraction as well as in the service sector. Francoise Hollande’s reform agenda may give the necessary boost to start recovery in the French economy. Industrial production is expected to increase by 0.6%.

Italian Industrial Production: Monday, 9:00. Italian industrial production plunged 0.9% in December, following a 0.3% rise in November. Likewise, Italian Service and Retail sectors remained in contraction, despite some improvement in the manufacturing sector. Italian industrial production is predicted to gain 0.4%.

Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 9:30. Investor sentiment in the euro zone increased to 13.3 in February, reaching the highest level since April 2011, following 11.9 in January. Analysts expected a decline to 10.7 in February. Investors were more confident regarding the Eurozone’s economic outlook. Investor confidence is expected to rise to 14.3.

Eurogroup meetings: Monday. The Eurogroup, an informal body includes Member States using the euro currency. It meets normally the day before the Ecofin meeting in Brussels and deals with issues relating to the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU).

German Trade Balance: Tuesday, 7:00. Germany’s seasonal adjusted trade surplus, narrowed less than expected in December to €18.5 billion from a revised €18.9 billion in November. The release was above the €17.3 billion projected by analysts. Both the trade and the current account surplus were above expectations. Meanwhile, German exports in December declined 0.9% from November, but increased 4.6% on a yearly base. German exported mainly to other EU countries, followed by exports to countries outside the single market. Surplus is expected to rise to €19.3 billion.

Edited March 9, 2014 by tradingwizzard

[tradingwizzard 10]

EUR/USD Forecast March 10-14

EUR/USD had a superb week, riding on the inaction of the ECB to reach levels last seen in 2011. Is it the beginning of a long rally? Industrial production data, Eurogroup and ECOFIN Meetings and inflation data are the highlights of this week. Here is an outlook on the major events and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

 

After the ECB made no changes in rates, Draghi gave the euro a big boost. as he refrained from taking action to ease pressure on short-term borrowing rates caused by European banks paying back LTRO loans. Some analysts expected Draghi would end sterilization of its SMP program. The lack of news was excellent news for the euro. In the US, Non-Farm Payrolls surprised to the upside, and this stopped the rally, but EUR/USD remains on high ground.

 

 

French Industrial Production: Monday, 7:45. France’s industrial production declined 0.3% in December, following a sharp rise of 1.2% in the previous month. Economists expected a smaller drop of 0.1%. Output declined in transport equipment as well as energy products, however motor vehicles went up. French manufacturing showed signs of improvement, but remained in contraction as well as in the service sector. Francoise Hollande’s reform agenda may give the necessary boost to start recovery in the French economy. Industrial production is expected to increase by 0.6%.

Italian Industrial Production: Monday, 9:00. Italian industrial production plunged 0.9% in December, following a 0.3% rise in November. Likewise, Italian Service and Retail sectors remained in contraction, despite some improvement in the manufacturing sector. Italian industrial production is predicted to gain 0.4%.

Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 9:30. Investor sentiment in the euro zone increased to 13.3 in February, reaching the highest level since April 2011, following 11.9 in January. Analysts expected a decline to 10.7 in February. Investors were more confident regarding the Eurozone’s economic outlook. Investor confidence is expected to rise to 14.3.

Eurogroup meetings: Monday. The Eurogroup, an informal body includes Member States using the euro currency. It meets normally the day before the Ecofin meeting in Brussels and deals with issues relating to the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU).

German Trade Balance: Tuesday, 7:00. Germany’s seasonal adjusted trade surplus, narrowed less than expected in December to €18.5 billion from a revised €18.9 billion in November. The release was above the €17.3 billion projected by analysts. Both the trade and the current account surplus were above expectations. Meanwhile, German exports in December declined 0.9% from November, but increased 4.6% on a yearly base. German exported mainly to other EU countries, followed by exports to countries outside the single market. Surplus is expected to rise to €19.3 billion.

 

 

1.3750 is my target....just like that

 

TW

[Mysticforex 13]

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[Mysticforex 13]

EUR/USD - Euro Reverses Direction on Ukraine Fears, Draghi Comments - http://t.co/ZJ3cAE6wVq

[Ammeo 10]

EUR/USD gains as ECB official downplays deflation threats

The euro hit two-and-a-half year highs against the dollar on Wednesday after a key European Central Bank official downplayed deflationary threats.

 

In U.S. trading, EUR/USD was trading at 1.3909, up 0.35%, up from a session low of 1.3843 and off a high of 1.3909.

 

The pair was likely to find support at 1.3834, Tuesday's low, and resistance at 1.4169, the high from Oct. 31, 2011.

 

The euro firmed after ECB executive board member Benoit Coeure said the monetary authority saw no indications of deflation in the euro area, though the risk of softer prices remains a possibility.

 

"We don't see deflation in the euro zone. We see it as a possible risk, and we have to be ready to act against the risk if it materializes," he said, and his comments firmed the euro by allaying expectations the ECB remains poised to cut rates or roll out fresh stimulus measures.

 

He added that the central bank has a number of policy measures at its disposal to address the issue.

 

The euro strengthened broadly after the ECB left interest rates at a record low 0.25% at its policy meeting last week and implemented no new policy measures to shore up growth despite forecasting low inflation for years to come.

 

Earlier Wednesday, data revealed that the euro zone industrial production contracted 0.2% in January from a month earlier, dragged down by a 2.5% drop in energy output.

 

Analysts were expecting a 0.5% gain.

EUR/USD gains as ECB official downplays deflation threats By Investing.com