"... Can Japan...?"

[zdo 20]

I have been bearish on JPY since 1989… inexplicably …

If I remember it correctly( and I don’t ), the bias ‘formed’ in contrariness … I do remember skimming a publication titled The Japan That Can Say No… I don’t think such docs ‘caused’ my bias though

 

...I have ‘blogged’ some about it long ago on TL http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/traders-log/7706-v-dow-spread-5.html#post104057

And before…

 

… don’t worry – it’s just a (painful) bias:rofl:…

thankfully, in trades, I have been able to override that stupid bias many times in the past

and … across time, PM and other fx positions(like a long string of many short EUR’s, etc) have far more than offset the series of stopouts and breakevens and, (the thankfully, low quantity of ) serious losing short JPYtrades .

... avg price this long USDJPY trade is sub 80… been building the position since mid 2011...

 

… fast forward to the present (:haha: via the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrow_of_time )

The open profits are great - but something ain’t right...something ain’t quite right beyond subjectively not deriving much 'pleasure' from the trade even when the 'bias' is paying off...

 

Some thoughts from others

 

unlimited printing = Abe’s plan. Ben has a serious head start.

 

“So far the entire sell-off in the yen is based on nothing but perceptions – the idea that this time, they really mean it!”

 

“The quadrillionYen question remains – when does the bond market break it’s zero bound shackles?”

 

“sympathies are with the Japanese pensioners and their middle class destined to penury as a consequence of neo-keynesianism and money printing run amock.”

Wtf is penury? Does it mean they won’t be able to afford adult diapers, etc?

 

Are junky/small EU members the new ‘carry trade’?

 

Etc.

 

:missy:

thanks for

Your thoughts?

[zdo 20]

re:

... inexplicably...

charles hugh smith-The Dangerous Blindspots of Clueless Keynesians

[SIUYA 11]

thoughts............

in summary

- free markets are prone to bubbles because they are made up from humans fear and greed,

- Keynsians are prone to exacerbating slower bigger bubbles because they too are human.

 

Both appear to have excessive leverage as their answer to (be it that there is money printing, excessive borrowing or whatever).

 

1. Debt and financialization ..............too much leverage in various forms.....

2. Crony capitalism and the elimination of accountability .....due to dodgy accounting to hide the leverage, real risks and the fact that other peoples money is used.

3. Diminishing returns ....answer.....use more leverage.

4. Centralization ...... even capitalists try to hide here either through government regulation, protection or collectives. (think banks, pharmaceticals.)

5. Technological, financial and demographic changes in our economy....in order to access more of other peoples money and extra access to leverage.

 

To survive the coming armagedon when money becomes worthless.......borrow money.....and invest in real assets.

 

 

and Zdo just in case you have not come across this... PEOPLE For Mathematically Perfected Economy™ [PFMPE™] | HOME — SOLUTION, PURPORTED MONETARY REFORM, OR INHERENT FAILURE BY INTEREST?

[zdo 20]

SUIYA,

Thanks for the post and link.

I take full responsibility for sliding my own topic off topic to KeynesiaLand.

 

Getting back on topic. My real questioning is about JPY (and jpn)

Are my ???s ultimately about rates? … along with my own traditional JPY ‘go nowhere fast’ trades, I’ve also made a bunch of ‘went nowhere fast’ trades "chasing rates" in the last few years… each time there was a tinge of this time it will be different somewhere in my brains… last week, wired money to almost quadruple my treasury futures trading account in prep. for …

 

Thoughts? Thx. zdo

 

Related reading

KeynesianLand:

charles hugh smith-Spoiled Teenager Syndrome

 

JPY/jpn:

Japan's Central Bank Is Pressed to Boost Money Supply - Businessweek

Stocks to soar as world money catches fire, Calvinst Europe left behind - Telegraph

[SIUYA 11]

i dont have many thoughts on Japan.....i kinda gave up on it years ago. Once I had a good equity long on it thinking of a turnaround....once--- it never came, out after a few years with little over break even......stop looking at it after that.

There has also been so many manipulations over there it has a non starter.

 

re the treasuries....yes.....i am looking at a change with the mindset that when they do they can go for longer than people think...remeber when rates actually were double digits!. Until then....edge in slowly.

The current mindset is still one way....luckily we dont have monthly performance numbers to worry about

[zdo 20]

i dont have many thoughts on Japan.....i kinda gave up on it years ago. Once I had a good equity long on it thinking of a turnaround....once--- it never came, out after a few years with little over break even......stop looking at it after that.

There has also been so many manipulations over there it has a non starter.

 

 

SIUYA, I can certainly relate to those sentiments and outcomes.

Maybe I do too many thoughts about Japan.

 

Do you all think this "dont have many thoughts on Japan" (for such 'reasons' like "it never came", "non starter", etc.) is pretty common?

...that Japan was 'canned' long ago?

etc?

 

fwiw

Planning to hold EURJPY and USDJPY longs bias until ~ 3/29/13

... but, these trades need some grounding in 'reality'

...maybe jpn ministry of finance will meltdown a trillion yen coin or something

[zdo 20]

Still "planning" to hold but bitchn' and itchn' to get out

 

... more trillion dollar coin jokes

Japan May Or May Not Mint Quadrillion Yen Coins, But It Will Monetize European Debt | Zero Hedge

 

... and through golden eyes...

“If Just 1%Of Japanese Pension Assets Shift Into Gold, The Gold Market Would Explode†| Zero Hedge

 

thoughts ?

[SIUYA 11]

random disconnected and nonsensical thoughts----

 

if its all on paper then they are just finger crossing that inflation helps, and it does not need to be much, but stagflation (ie; Japan) will be a bitch for the rest of the world.

 

Off the planet maybe - One thing the world has going for it is that in 30-40 years, most of us will be dead, the populations will have declined, healthcare, and aged pensions will be right down - there will be very few young people to worry about having large armies - rely on technology - these all might save a lot.

 

Maybe a good answer is massive deleveraging and austerity - basically pull all the government support, repay any debt, curb spending, debt transfers, allow plenty of people and businesses to go bankrupt and put the value back into the holders of the cash (this would suit the government as well as they will write most off elsewhere and still be able to print it)

Companies might still run, there will be lots of pain and suffering, but it might shake things up enough....

unlikely - but possible if the evil coroprate empires are currently saving cash for this scenario and have already planned in their moon mountain bases this scenario.

 

Problem is for the gold is that unless you have physical gold in the currency that you live in and plan to stay in - its all paper anyways. If i had USD gold paper and the USD collapses, the world goes to shit.....then i would imagine my 'gold investment' would be worth shit also.

 

There are always diamonds - those that a small enough to bribe your way out of a country and those that are large enough to have real collecting value.

[zdo 20]

random disconnected and nonsensical thoughts----

 

.

 

SIUYA,

 

Read your post. Thanks.

Read it again. Thanks.

Read it again. I may never recover.

 

Have a great weekend all.

 

zdo

[zdo 20]

Fwiw, I will be getting short USDJPY during this week and next (not heavily, but nonetheless, short… and btw, still holding EURJPY (and related) longs ... for now )

 

… it would be nice if I just knew why :rofl:

:haha:Forum dedicated to fundamental outlook, intermarket analysis, and macro & micro analysis.

[zdo 20]

How does the saying go: it is better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a clueless Keynesian muppet than to open it and remove all doubt? Sure enough, if there was any confusion as to the level of economic comprehension (or lack thereof) of Japan's chosen savior du jour, one who is hell bent on destroying its currency and sending energy costs into the stratosphere (but don't worry - as Rajoy would say, inflation is plunging, except for the things that are soaring) the following two snippets should clear up the situation once and for all.

 

From Nikkei:

 

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Tuesday in parliament that worries of the central bank's inflation target triggering hyperinflation are unfortunate and unfounded

 

"It's unfortunate that there are people who tout the mostly unfounded fears of hyperinflation," Mr. Abe said in a lower house plenary session. .

 

 

Well as long as it is mostly, all is well.

 

So what is the plan, and one uses the term very loosely? Again from the Nikkei:

 

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe urged Japan's business leaders Tuesday to raise wages for employees, saying the move could help stimulate domestic demand and beat more than decade-long deflation.

 

Yes: this is Japan's head central-planner, who just confirmed that the USSR's authoritarian approach to everything was right all along. Until the moment it all turned out to be very, very wrong of course.

 

Abe Says Fears Of Hyperinflation Are "Mostly" Unfounded As He Urges Companies To Hike Wages | Zero Hedge

[zdo 20]

As planned in Post #7, #8, etc. etc.... , I will get short a medium sized load EURJPY by somewhere around 4/12 – right up in the face of

• This is your QE on Bernanke: $85 billion per month or $1 trillion per year.

• This is your QE on Japanese monetary drugs: $200 billion per month or $2.4 trillion per year.

…plus lexus vs mbz ‘pricings’ … and infiniti vs bmw ‘pricings’ notwithstanding … and whatevertf that has to do with it…

It could get ugly … may have to ‘stop out’ and wait for Oct 31 ish

:missy:

[zdo 20]

… and in - short EJ … pretty much as planned

… with some lag though…held longs longer than I thought I would (when I made the plan way back when), so, subjectively, the position reversal seems more abrupt than usual…

…plus, keeping some powder dry for better limit entries. True spike not likely off this week’s action, etc…

 

I’m planning a larger short on the EJ around late Oct so this trade may end up as a short bias, in and out affair until then… ie I’ll give the position a few weeks to wiggle, but after that it needs to perform or I lighten it considerably...

 

...fwiw noobs… in the long run it’s better to wait for the ‘trend’ (wotevrtfdatis) to really change… instead of combining ‘guessing’ and ‘fighting the trend’ and ‘timing’ and ___ all at once.

I do about 3 or 4 of these ‘defiant’ against the trend position trades a year

…and, year by year – win or lose – these trades have progressively become exercises more in ego observation, than exercises in ego stroking (and flagulation )…

[zdo 20]

... modified scaling / adding more short EurJpy

 

... modified scaling / adding more short UsdJpy (6JU3)

 

(

fwiw

lightening loads on other long Eur trades (EurChf, etc. )

exiting large part of long TryJpy as we speak...

 

Still long PM’s, with stops and position reestablishing limits resting below.

 

Will roll out of longs and start shorting US indexes before cob May 14… just for snicks.

 

Also have moved up resting stops under YM to leg back into the SI/YM spread campaign…

 

... ambivalent about shorting AUD more...

 

...

)

[Vinayak 10]

Effects of Abenomics

 

The Japanese Yen is now 101.54 to the US dollar and many are wondering how long this trend is going to last. I am here to tell you that we are not heading for 110. The main reason why the Yen will not decline further is diplomacy.

 

The Japanese Economics Minister Akira Amari has stated that the government's goal is not to manipulate the currency, but just as a means to counter deflation. This is apt at a time when Japan's big trading partners are not too pleased about the Yen sliding.

 

Moreover, aggressive monetary policy by the Bank of Japan could strengthen the JPY and there is also the chance for the Fed to start printing more money if the US economy weakens. This would mean that the dollar would fall further deteriorating the USD/JPY currency pair.

 

A third reason for Japan to not allow the JPY to slide further is to control the escalating import costs. Japan's relies a lot on fossil fuels that are imported. Rising energy costs can curtail consumer spending and this will put a big strain on the Japanese economy. A softening Yen will then be considered a negative thing.

 

A lot of market analysts foresee the Yen staying at 100 or just below for 2013 and there is a good reason that this could hold true.

[SunTrader 10]

. I am here to tell you that we are not heading for 110

....

This would mean that the dollar would fall further deteriorating the USD/JPY currency pair.

....

Diplomacy, really? :rofl:

 

And you mean start to fall once again - not further. It hasn't fallen against the yen in more than a year.

 

Like just about every other yen currency in the world.

 

Manipulating is what they used to do. Now they are just out right destroying their currency.

[Vinayak 10]

It does seem that more easing could be expected in Japan. Abenomics has held sway for quite some time.

 

I am watching this situation closely.

[SunTrader 10]

No doubt Abe will insist on more easing.

 

But like the little Dutch boy with his finger in the dike it is only a matter of time ...........