Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

zdo

"... Can Japan...?"

Recommended Posts

I have been bearish on JPY since 1989… inexplicably …

If I remember it correctly( and I don’t :roll eyes:), the bias ‘formed’ in contrariness … I do remember skimming a publication titled The Japan That Can Say No… I don’t think such docs ‘caused’ my bias though

 

...I have ‘blogged’ some about it long ago on TL http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/traders-log/7706-v-dow-spread-5.html#post104057

And before…

 

… don’t worry – it’s just a (painful) bias:rofl:…

thankfully, in trades, I have been able to override that stupid bias many times in the past

and … across time, PM and other fx positions(like a long string of many short EUR’s, etc) have far more than offset the series of stopouts and breakevens and, (the thankfully, low quantity of ) serious losing short JPYtrades .

... avg price this long USDJPY trade is sub 80… been building the position since mid 2011...

 

… fast forward to the present (:haha: via the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrow_of_time )

The open profits are great - but something ain’t right...something ain’t quite right beyond subjectively not deriving much 'pleasure' from the trade even when the 'bias' is paying off...

 

Some thoughts from others

 

unlimited printing = Abe’s plan. Ben has a serious head start.

 

“So far the entire sell-off in the yen is based on nothing but perceptions – the idea that this time, they really mean it!”

 

“The quadrillionYen question remains – when does the bond market break it’s zero bound shackles?”

 

“sympathies are with the Japanese pensioners and their middle class destined to penury as a consequence of neo-keynesianism and money printing run amock.”

Wtf is penury? Does it mean they won’t be able to afford adult diapers, etc?

 

Are junky/small EU members the new ‘carry trade’?

 

Etc.

 

:missy:

thanks for

Your thoughts?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

thoughts............

in summary

- free markets are prone to bubbles because they are made up from humans fear and greed,

- Keynsians are prone to exacerbating slower bigger bubbles because they too are human.

 

Both appear to have excessive leverage as their answer to (be it that there is money printing, excessive borrowing or whatever).

 

1. Debt and financialization ..............too much leverage in various forms.....

2. Crony capitalism and the elimination of accountability .....due to dodgy accounting to hide the leverage, real risks and the fact that other peoples money is used.

3. Diminishing returns ....answer.....use more leverage.

4. Centralization ...... even capitalists try to hide here either through government regulation, protection or collectives. (think banks, pharmaceticals.)

5. Technological, financial and demographic changes in our economy....in order to access more of other peoples money and extra access to leverage.

 

To survive the coming armagedon when money becomes worthless.......borrow money.....and invest in real assets. ;)

 

 

and Zdo just in case you have not come across this... PEOPLE For Mathematically Perfected Economy™ [PFMPE™] | HOME — SOLUTION, PURPORTED MONETARY REFORM, OR INHERENT FAILURE BY INTEREST?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SUIYA,

Thanks for the post and link.

I take full responsibility for sliding my own topic off topic to KeynesiaLand.

 

Getting back on topic. My real questioning is about JPY (and jpn)

Are my ???s ultimately about rates? … along with my own traditional JPY ‘go nowhere fast’ trades, I’ve also made a bunch of ‘went nowhere fast’ trades "chasing rates" in the last few years… each time there was a tinge of this time it will be different somewhere in my brains… last week, wired money to almost quadruple my treasury futures trading account in prep. for …

 

Thoughts? Thx. zdo

 

Related reading

KeynesianLand:

charles hugh smith-Spoiled Teenager Syndrome

 

JPY/jpn:

Japan's Central Bank Is Pressed to Boost Money Supply - Businessweek

Stocks to soar as world money catches fire, Calvinst Europe left behind - Telegraph

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i dont have many thoughts on Japan.....i kinda gave up on it years ago. Once I had a good equity long on it thinking of a turnaround....once--- it never came, out after a few years with little over break even......stop looking at it after that.

There has also been so many manipulations over there it has a non starter.

 

re the treasuries....yes.....i am looking at a change with the mindset that when they do they can go for longer than people think...remeber when rates actually were double digits!. Until then....edge in slowly.

The current mindset is still one way....luckily we dont have monthly performance numbers to worry about :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
i dont have many thoughts on Japan.....i kinda gave up on it years ago. Once I had a good equity long on it thinking of a turnaround....once--- it never came, out after a few years with little over break even......stop looking at it after that.

There has also been so many manipulations over there it has a non starter.

 

 

SIUYA, I can certainly relate to those sentiments and outcomes.

Maybe I do too many thoughts about Japan.

 

Do you all think this "dont have many thoughts on Japan" (for such 'reasons' like "it never came", "non starter", etc.) is pretty common?

...that Japan was 'canned' long ago?

etc?

 

fwiw

Planning to hold EURJPY and USDJPY longs bias until ~ 3/29/13

:roll eyes: ... but, these trades need some grounding in 'reality' :)

...maybe jpn ministry of finance will meltdown a trillion yen coin or something ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

random disconnected and nonsensical thoughts----

 

if its all on paper then they are just finger crossing that inflation helps, and it does not need to be much, but stagflation (ie; Japan) will be a bitch for the rest of the world.

 

Off the planet maybe - One thing the world has going for it is that in 30-40 years, most of us will be dead, the populations will have declined, healthcare, and aged pensions will be right down - there will be very few young people to worry about having large armies - rely on technology - these all might save a lot.

 

Maybe a good answer is massive deleveraging and austerity - basically pull all the government support, repay any debt, curb spending, debt transfers, allow plenty of people and businesses to go bankrupt and put the value back into the holders of the cash (this would suit the government as well as they will write most off elsewhere and still be able to print it)

Companies might still run, there will be lots of pain and suffering, but it might shake things up enough....

unlikely - but possible if the evil coroprate empires are currently saving cash for this scenario and have already planned in their moon mountain bases this scenario.

 

Problem is for the gold is that unless you have physical gold in the currency that you live in and plan to stay in - its all paper anyways. If i had USD gold paper and the USD collapses, the world goes to shit.....then i would imagine my 'gold investment' would be worth shit also.

 

There are always diamonds - those that a small enough to bribe your way out of a country and those that are large enough to have real collecting value.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
random disconnected and nonsensical thoughts----

 

.

 

SIUYA,

 

Read your post. Thanks.

Read it again. Thanks.

Read it again. I may never recover. ;)

 

Have a great weekend all.

 

zdo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fwiw, I will be getting short USDJPY during this week and next (not heavily, but nonetheless, short… and btw, still holding EURJPY (and related) longs ... for now )

 

… it would be nice if I just knew why :rofl:

:haha:Forum dedicated to fundamental outlook, intermarket analysis, and macro & micro analysis.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
How does the saying go: it is better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a clueless Keynesian muppet than to open it and remove all doubt? Sure enough, if there was any confusion as to the level of economic comprehension (or lack thereof) of Japan's chosen savior du jour, one who is hell bent on destroying its currency and sending energy costs into the stratosphere (but don't worry - as Rajoy would say, inflation is plunging, except for the things that are soaring) the following two snippets should clear up the situation once and for all.

 

From Nikkei:

 

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Tuesday in parliament that worries of the central bank's inflation target triggering hyperinflation are unfortunate and unfounded

 

"It's unfortunate that there are people who tout the mostly unfounded fears of hyperinflation," Mr. Abe said in a lower house plenary session. .

 

 

Well as long as it is mostly, all is well.

 

So what is the plan, and one uses the term very loosely? Again from the Nikkei:

 

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe urged Japan's business leaders Tuesday to raise wages for employees, saying the move could help stimulate domestic demand and beat more than decade-long deflation.

 

Yes: this is Japan's head central-planner, who just confirmed that the USSR's authoritarian approach to everything was right all along. Until the moment it all turned out to be very, very wrong of course.

 

Abe Says Fears Of Hyperinflation Are "Mostly" Unfounded As He Urges Companies To Hike Wages | Zero Hedge

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As planned in Post #7, #8, etc. etc.... , I will get short a medium sized load EURJPY by somewhere around 4/12 – right up in the face of

• This is your QE on Bernanke: $85 billion per month or $1 trillion per year.

• This is your QE on Japanese monetary drugs: $200 billion per month or $2.4 trillion per year.

…plus lexus vs mbz ‘pricings’ … and infiniti vs bmw ‘pricings’ notwithstanding … and whatevertf that has to do with it…

It could get ugly … may have to ‘stop out’ and wait for Oct 31 ish

:missy:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

… and in - short EJ … pretty much as planned

… with some lag though…held longs longer than I thought I would (when I made the plan way back when), so, subjectively, the position reversal seems more abrupt than usual…

…plus, keeping some powder dry for better limit entries. True spike not likely off this week’s action, etc…

 

I’m planning a larger short on the EJ around late Oct so this trade may end up as a short bias, in and out affair until then… ie I’ll give the position a few weeks to wiggle, but after that it needs to perform or I lighten it considerably...

 

...fwiw noobs… in the long run it’s better to wait for the ‘trend’ (wotevrtfdatis) to really change… instead of combining ‘guessing’ and ‘fighting the trend’ and ‘timing’ and ___ all at once.

I do about 3 or 4 of these ‘defiant’ against the trend position trades a year

…and, year by year – win or lose – these trades have progressively become exercises more in ego observation, than exercises in ego stroking (and flagulation :))…

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

... modified scaling / adding more short EurJpy

 

... modified scaling / adding more short UsdJpy (6JU3)

 

(

fwiw

lightening loads on other long Eur trades (EurChf, etc. )

exiting large part of long TryJpy as we speak...

 

Still long PM’s, with stops and position reestablishing limits resting below.

 

Will roll out of longs and start shorting US indexes before cob May 14… just for snicks.

 

Also have moved up resting stops under YM to leg back into the SI/YM spread campaign…

 

... ambivalent about shorting AUD more...

 

...

)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Effects of Abenomics

 

The Japanese Yen is now 101.54 to the US dollar and many are wondering how long this trend is going to last. I am here to tell you that we are not heading for 110. The main reason why the Yen will not decline further is diplomacy.

 

The Japanese Economics Minister Akira Amari has stated that the government's goal is not to manipulate the currency, but just as a means to counter deflation. This is apt at a time when Japan's big trading partners are not too pleased about the Yen sliding.

 

Moreover, aggressive monetary policy by the Bank of Japan could strengthen the JPY and there is also the chance for the Fed to start printing more money if the US economy weakens. This would mean that the dollar would fall further deteriorating the USD/JPY currency pair.

 

A third reason for Japan to not allow the JPY to slide further is to control the escalating import costs. Japan's relies a lot on fossil fuels that are imported. Rising energy costs can curtail consumer spending and this will put a big strain on the Japanese economy. A softening Yen will then be considered a negative thing.

 

A lot of market analysts foresee the Yen staying at 100 or just below for 2013 and there is a good reason that this could hold true.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
. I am here to tell you that we are not heading for 110

....

This would mean that the dollar would fall further deteriorating the USD/JPY currency pair.

....

Diplomacy, really? :rofl:

 

And you mean start to fall once again - not further. It hasn't fallen against the yen in more than a year.

 

Like just about every other yen currency in the world.

 

Manipulating is what they used to do. Now they are just out right destroying their currency.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 11th July 2025.   Demand For Gold Rises As Trump Announces Tariffs!   Gold prices rose significantly throughout the week as investors took advantage of the 2.50% lower entry level. Investors also return to the safe-haven asset as the US trade policy continues to escalate. As a result, investors are taking a more dovish tone. The ‘risk-off’ appetite is also something which can be seen within the stock market. The NASDAQ on Thursday took a 0.90% dive within only 30 minutes.   Trade Tensions Escalate President Trump has been teasing with new tariffs throughout the week. However, the tariffs were confirmed on Thursday. A 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1st, along with 50% tariffs on copper and goods from Brazil. Some experts are advising that Brazil has been specifically targeted due to its association with the BRICS.   However, the President has not directly associated the tariffs with BRICS yet. According to President Trump, Brazil is targeting US technology companies and carrying out a ‘witch hunt’against former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, a close ally who is currently facing prosecution for allegedly attempting to overturn the 2022 Brazilian election.   Although Brazil is one of the largest and fastest-growing economies in the Americas, it is not the main concern for investors. Investors are more concerned about Tariffs on Canada. The White House said it will impose a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, effective August 1st, raised from the earlier 25% rate. This covers most goods, with exceptions under USMCA and exemptions for Canadian companies producing within the US.   It is also vital for investors to note that Canada is among the US;’s top 3 trading partners. The increase was justified by Trump citing issues like the trade deficit, Canada’s handling of fentanyl trafficking, and perceived unfair trade practices.   The President is also threatening new measures against the EU. These moves caused US and European stock futures to fall nearly 1%, while the Dollar rose and commodity prices saw small gains. However, the main benefactor was Silver and Gold, which are the two best-performing metals of the day.   How Will The Fed Impact Gold? The FOMC indicated that the number of members warming up to the idea of interest rate cuts is increasing. If the Fed takes a dovish tone, the price of Gold may further rise. In the meantime, the President pushing for a 3% rate cut sparked talk of a more dovish Fed nominee next year and raised worries about future inflation.   Meanwhile, jobless claims dropped for the fourth straight week, coming in better than expected and supporting the view that the labour market remains strong after last week’s solid payroll report. Markets still expect two rate cuts this year, but rate futures show most investors see no change at the next Fed meeting. Gold is expected to finish the week mostly flat.       Gold 15-Minute Chart     If the price of Gold increases above $3,337.50, buy signals are likely to materialise again. However, the price is currently retracing, meaning traders are likely to wait for regained momentum before entering further buy trades. According to HSBC, they expect an average price of $3,215 in 2025 (up from $3,015) and $3,125 in 2026, with projections showing a volatile range between $3,100 and $3,600   Key Takeaway Points: Gold Rises on Safe-Haven Demand. Gold gained as investors reacted to rising trade tensions and market volatility. Canada Tariffs Spark Concern. A 35% tariff on Canadian imports drew attention due to Canada’s key trade role. Fed Dovish Shift Supports Gold. Growing expectations of rate cuts and Trump’s push for a 3% cut boosted the gold outlook. Gold Eyes Breakout Above $3,337.5. Price is consolidating; a move above $3,337.50 could trigger new buy signals. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Back in the early 2000s, Netflix mailed DVDs to subscribers.   It wasn’t sexy—but it was smart. No late fees. No driving to Blockbuster.   People subscribed because they were lazy. Investors bought the stock because they realized everyone else is lazy too.   Those who saw the future in that red envelope? They could’ve caught a 10,000%+ move.   Another story…   Back in the mid-2000s, Amazon launched Prime.   It wasn’t flashy—but it was fast.   Free two-day shipping. No minimums. No hassle.   People subscribed because they were impatient. Investors bought the stock because they realized everyone hates waiting.   Those who saw the future in that speedy little yellow button? They could’ve caught another 10,000%+ move.   Finally…   Back in 2011, Bitcoin was trading under $10.   It wasn’t regulated—but it worked.   No bank. No middleman. Just wallet to wallet.   People used it to send money. Investors bought it because they saw the potential.   Those who saw something glimmering in that strange orange coin? They could’ve caught a 100,000%+ move.   The people who made those calls weren’t fortune tellers. They just noticed something simple before others did.   A better way. A quiet shift. A small edge. An asymmetric bet.   The red envelope fixed late fees. The yellow button fixed waiting. The orange coin gave billions a choice.   Of course, these types of gains are rare. And they happen only once in a blue moon. That’s exactly why it’s important to notice when the conditions start to look familiar.   Not after the move. Not once it's on CNBC. But in the quiet build-up— before the surface breaks.   Enter the Blue Button Please read more here: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/netflix-amazon-bitcoin-blue  Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
    • What These Attacks Look Like There are several ways you could get hacked. And the threats compound by the day.   Here’s a quick rundown:   Phishing: Fake emails from your “bank.” Click the link, give your password—game over.   Ransomware: Malware that locks your files and demands crypto. Pay up, or it’s gone.   DDoS: Overwhelm a website with traffic until it crashes. Like 10,000 bots blocking the door. Often used by nations.   Man-in-the-Middle: Hackers intercept your messages on public WiFi and read or change them.   Social Engineering: Hackers pose as IT or drop infected USB drives labeled “Payroll.”   You don’t need to be “important” to be a target.   You just need to be online.   What You Can Do (Without Buying a Bunker) You don’t have to be tech-savvy.   You just need to stop being low-hanging fruit.   Here’s how:   Use a YubiKey (physical passkey device) or Authenticator app – Ditch text message 2FA. SIM swaps are real. Hackers often have people on the inside at telecom companies.   Use a password manager (with Yubikey) – One unique password per account. Stop using your dog’s name.   Update your devices – Those annoying updates patch real security holes. Use them.   Back up your files – If ransomware hits, you don’t want your important documents held hostage.   Avoid public WiFi for sensitive stuff – Or use a VPN.   Think before you click – Emails that feel “urgent” are often fake. Go to the websites manually for confirmation.   Consider Starlink in case the internet goes down – I think it’s time for me to make the leap. Don’t Panic. Prepare. (Then Invest.)   I spent an hour in that basement bar reading about cyberattacks—and watching real-world systems fall apart like dominos.   The internet going down used to be an inconvenience. Now, it’s a warning.   Cyberwar isn’t coming. It’s here.   And the next time your internet goes out, it might not just be your router.   Don’t panic. Prepare.   And maybe keep a backup plan in your back pocket. Like a local basement bar with good bourbon—and working WiFi.   As usual, we’re on the lookout for more opportunities in cybersecurity. Stay tuned.   Author: Chris Campbell (AltucherConfidential) Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/   
    • DUMBSHELL:  re the automation of corruption ---  200,000 "Science Papers" in academic journal database PubMed may have been AI-generated with errors, hallucinations and false sourcing 
    • Does any crypto exchanges get banned in your country? How's about other as Bybit, Kraken, MEXC, OKX?
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.