Technical Outlook, Strategies & Commentaries On The Major Currencies

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

GBPUSD: Pushes Higher, Risk Points To The 1.6516 Level.

 

GBPUSD: With a second day of recovery higher underway, there is risk of price extension with eyes on the 1.6516 level, its Jan 10 2014 high. A decisive break and hold above this level will pave the way for a run at the 1.6603 level, its Jan 02’2014 high. Further out, a breach of the 1.6603 level will open the door for additional strength towards the 1.6650 level. Further out, a turn above here will trigger its medium term uptrend resumption towards the 1.6700 level followed by the 1.6750 level and possibly higher towards the 1.6800 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the other hand, on any pullback, support stands at the 1.6400 level where a break will turn focus to the 1.6350 level and subsequently the 1.6300 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.6259 level. On the whole, GBP continues to retain its medium term upside bias.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

GBPUSD: Takes Out The 1.6516 Level, Risk Builds On The 1.6603 Level

 

GBPUSD: With GBP remaining bullish in the medium term and breaking above the 1.6516 level, its Jan 10 2014 high, the risk is for it to recapture the 1.6603 level, its Jan 02’2014 high. Further out, a breach of this level will open the door for additional strength towards the 1.6650 level with a turn above here triggering its medium term uptrend resumption towards the 1.6700 level followed by the 1.6750 level and possibly higher towards the 1.6800 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the other hand, on any pullback, support stands at the 1.6516 level and then the 1.6400 level where a break will turn focus to the 1.6350 level and subsequently the 1.6300 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.6259 level. On the whole, GBP continues to retain its medium term upside bias.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

USDCAD: On Bullish Offensive, Aims At The 1.1200 Level.

 

 

USDCAD: The pair is now seen following through higher on the back of its Wednesday rally during Thursday trading session. This development has created scope for more strength towards the 1.1200 level where a breach if seen will trigger further gain towards the 1.1250 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.1300 level where a violation will aim at the 1.1350 level and then the 1.1400 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further upside. On the other hand, support comes at the 1.0900 level, its psycho level o any pullback followed by the 1.0842 level where a violation will set the stage for a run at the 1.0736 level, representing its Dec 20 2013 high. Additionally, downside objective resides at the 1.0651 level, its Jan 06’2014 low. All in all, USDCAD continues to face further upside threats in the long term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

AUDUSD: Clears the 0.8755 level, Extends Bearishness.

 

 

AUDUSD: With the pair breaking the 0.8755 level, its Jan 20 2014 low to sell off further on Friday, more decline is expected in the days ahead. Support is seen at the 0.8650 level, its psycho level followed by the 0.8600 level. Further down, support comes in at the 0.8550 level and then the 0.8500 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further downside. On the upside, resistance resides at the 0.8755 level followed by the 0.8887 level, its Jan 22’2014 high. A break of here if seen will aim at the 0.8915 level, its Jan 16’2014 high. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9000 level, its big psycho level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside in the medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

USDCHF: With the pair declining sharply to reverse its previous week gains the past week, it now looks to extend that weakness in the new week. While holding below the 0.8986 level, the above view remains valid. This development has paved the way for a run at the 0.8900 level, its psycho level. Further down, support comes in at the 0.8859 level, its Dec 30 2013 low with a cut through here turning focus to the 00.8800 level. A turn below here will set the stage for a push lower towards the 0.8750 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further downside. Conversely, to annul its present weakness and resume its short term uptrend now on hold, the pair must break and hold above the 0.9156 level, its Jan 21 2014 high, a tough call at its current price levels. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9200 level, its psycho where a violation will aim at the 0.9249 level, its Nov 07’2013 high and then the 0.9300 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside on further bear threats.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

EURUSD: Reverses Losses, Set To Extend Gains

 

EURUSD: With EUR reversing its previous week losses to return above its broken trendline, further recovery gains are likely in the new week. If this happens, the pair could force further strength towards the 1.3818 level, its Dec 30 2013 high where a violation will expose the 1.3750 level, its psycho level where a break will target the 1.3898 level, its Dec 2013 high. Above here will trigger its medium uptrend resumption towards the 1.3950 level and then the 1.4000 level, its psycho level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. Conversely, on any pullback, support comes in at the 1.3620 level, its rising trendline support. Further down, support stands at the 1.3550 level and then the 1.3500 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the upside on further bull threats.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

AUDUSD: Bearish Medium Term Despite Recovery Attempts.

 

AUDUSD: Despite its attempts at recovering higher, it continues to hold on to its broader medium term downside bias. With that said, we expect its current recovery attempts to fade at the 0.8755 level or maximum at the 0.8822 level if it does continue. Support lies at the 0.8659 level followed by the 0.8600 level where a breach will aim at the 0.8550 level. Further down, support is located at the 0.8500 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. On the upside, resistance resides at the 0.8755 level initially with a cut through there targeting the 0.8822/47 levels where a reversal of roles is likely to occur. But if this fails, expect more recovery to occur towards the 0.8915 level, its Jan 16’2014 high and next the 0.9000 level, its big psycho level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside in the medium term.

 

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

EURUSD: Hesitates Above Its Key Support

 

EURUSD: Although EUR may be struggling above its rising trendline, its broader upside bias remains intact in the medium term. However, it will have to retake the 1.3739 level, its Jan 24 2014 high to trigger further upside pressure towards the 1.3818 level, its Dec 30 2013 high. A turn above the 1.3818 level will set the stage for a move higher towards the 1.3897 level, its Dec 27 2013 high. Further out, the 1.3950 level comes in as the next upside. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the other hand, any pullback will meet support standing at the 1.3628 level, its Jan 28’2014 low. That level is expected to provide support when tested. However, if this level is violated, further decline could follow towards the 1.3550 level and the 1.3489 level where a violation will aim at the 1.3400 level, its psycho level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the upside medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

EURJPY: Bearish, Faces Further Downside Pressure.

 

EURJPY- The cross remains weak and vulnerable as long as it holds below the 142.41 level. With a follow through lower on the back of its Wednesday losses seen, further weakness is expected in the days ahead towards the 138.48 level, its .50 Fib Ret (its 131.21-145.68 rally). Further down, support comes in at the 138.00 level, its psycho level where a violation will aim at the 137.50 level. A cut through that level will open the door for a run at the 137.00 level and then the 136.76 level, its .618 Fib Ret. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the other hand, resistance resides at the 141.27 level, its Jan 29 2014 low followed by the 142.41 level, its Jan 23 2014 low. A violation if seen will target the 142.90 level, its Jan 16’2014 high and then the 143.50 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the downside on correction.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

USDCHF: Risk Builds Up On The 0.9156 Level.

 

USDCHF: With the pair reversing most of its previous week losses to close higher the past week, immediate risk remains to the upside. Resistance resides at the 0.9156 level, its Jan 21 2014 high. Further out, the 0.9200 level, its psycho level comes in as the next upside objective where a violation will aim at the 0.9249 level, its Nov 07’2013 high. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, the risk to this analysis will be a return to the 0.8902 level, its Jan 24 2014 low. A cut through here will turn focus to the 0.8850 level and subsequently lower towards the 0.8800 level, its psycho level. This downside view is consistent with its broader medium term downtrend triggered from the 0.9838 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside medium term though seen recovering.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

EURUSD: Risk Points To The Downside, Set To Test The 1.3400 Level

 

 

EURUSD: With EUR reversing its previous week gains and returning below its rising trendline, further decline is envisaged in the days ahead. Support comes in at the 1.3400 level, representing its psycho level where a breach will aim at its weekly 200 ema at the 1.3346 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.3300 level where a break will aim at the 1.3250 level and possibly lower towards the 1.3200 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the other hand, resistance resides at the 1.3550 level but EUR will have to break and hold above the 1.3716 level to annul its bear threats and trigger its upside offensive now on hold. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.3800 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside on further bear threats.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

USDJPY: Bearish, Extends Weakness

 

USDJPY: The pair remains vulnerable to the downside following its last week losses. A follow through lower is snow underway suggesting further decline with eyes on the 101.50 level a possibility. A cut through here will call for a run at the 101.00 level where a breach will turn attention to the 100.00 level, its big psycho level. We expect a bounce higher off this level if tested. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the other hand, resistance resides at the 102.85 level where a violation will turn focus to the 104.50 level and then the 104.00 level. If a violation of here occurs, expect more recovery to follow towards the 104.91 level where a breach will aim at the 105.43 level. On the whole, USDJPY remains exposed to the downside in the short term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

CRUDE OIL: Halts Weakness, Looks To Retake The 98.58 Level.

 

CRUDE OIL: With Crude Oil halting its two-day weakness and recovering higher on Tuesday, the risk is for a retake of the 98.58 level, its Jan 30 2014 high to occur. Further out, resistance comes in the 99.38 level, representing its Dec 31 2013 high. A turn above here will set the stage for more recovery towards the 100.00 level with a breach of there turning focus to the 100.74.00 level, its Dec 27 2013 high. On the downside, support comes in at the 96.26 level, its Feb 03 2014 low with a break targeting the 95.67 level. A cut through here will turn attention to the 95.00 level with a breach of here shifting focus to the 94.00 level, its psycho level. All in all, Crude Oil remains biased to the upside in the medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

GOLD: Turns Off Ahead Of The 1,279.08 Level. Faces Consolidation Risk

 

GOLD: With attempts of resuming its short term uptrend failing on Wednesday for a marginal higher close, consolidation above its broken falling trendline may continue. If however GOLD retakes the 1,279.08 level, its Jan 27 2014 high to create scope for more upside the 1,300.00 level, its big psycho level will be targeted. A clearance of here if seen will turn focus to the 1,350.00 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1,400.00 level, its psycho level. Conversely, the risk to this analysis will be a return to the downside towards the 1,231.48 level. Further down, support resides at the 1,218.35 level, representing its Jan 08’2014 low. This level must hold to prevent the commodity from returning to the 1,182.33 level, its Dec 31’2013 low. However, if that level is violated it will turn attention to the 1,150.00 level followed by the 1,100.00 level. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the downside medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

GBPUSD: Consolidates, Holds Above The 1.6259 Level.

 

GBPUSD: With GBP still maintaining above its horizontal at the 1.6259 level, upside risk is envisaged. This leaves the pair threatening further upside leaving the 1.6398 level as the next upside. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.6440 level, its Feb 03 2014 high where a breach will aim at the 1.6500 level. On the other hand, the risk to this analysis will be a return below the 1.6259 level. Support lies at the 1.6217 level, its Dec 17 2013 low. A cut through here will aim at the 1.6150 level. Further down, a breach will shift attention to the 1.6100 level and subsequently the 1.6050 level. On the whole, GBP continues to face bear threats though recovering.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

USDCAD: Weakens, Sells Off Below Key Support

 

USDCAD: With a strong sell off pushing the pair below the 1.1031/36 levels, its Jan 27/Feb 05 2014 lows, further weakness is envisaged. Support comes in at the 1.0904 level, its Jan 17 2014 low with a cur through here extending weakness towards the 1.0850 level and then the 1.0800 level, its psycho level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the other hand, resistance resides at the 1.1031/36 levels, its Jan 27/Feb 05 2014 lows. A reversal of roles as resistance is likely to turn the pair back down at this area but if violated, further gains could occur towards the 1.1137 level. A violation will aim at the 1.1223 level, its Jan 31 2014 high and possibly higher towards the 1.1300 level where bears may come and turn it lower. All in all, USDCAD continues to face further downside threats

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

USDCHF: Closes The Week Lower, Eyes Further Weakness.

 

USDCHF: With USDCHF closing the week lower and reversing most of its past week gains, the risk as we enter the new week is for more decline to occur. As long as USDCHF trades and holds below the 0.9156/0.9079 levels this view remains valid. Support lies at the 0.8902 level, its Jan 24 2014 low where a violation will push the pair further lower towards the 0.8850 level. A cut through here will pave the way for a run at the 0.8800 level, its psycho level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, to resume its short term uptrend now on hold, it will have to overcome its resistance residing at the 0.9050/81 levels followed by the 0.9100 level and then the 0.9156 level, its Jan 21 2014 high. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9200 level, its psycho. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

EURUSD: Recovery Risk Targets The 1.3739 Level.

 

EURUSD: EUR took back most of its previous week gains to close higher the past week. This development now leaves the pair aiming at the 1.3739 level where a breach will target further upside towards the 1.3800 level, its psycho level.This view is consistent with its long term uptrend which is on hold due to corrective price action. Conversely to annul its past week gains it will have to return to the 1.3476 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.3400 level, representing its psycho level where a breach will aim at its weekly 200 ema at the 1.3346 level. Additionally, support stands at the 1.3300 level where a break will target the 1.3250 level and possibly lower towards the 1.3200 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside below its broken trendline.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

AUDUSD: Holds Above Key Supports Despite Price Consolidation

 

AUDUSD: With corrective recovery extending for a second week in a row the past week, further gain is anticipated. Though presently seen hesitating, its immediate bias remains higher as long as it holds above the 0.8853/87 levels. This leaves its current price action corrective with an eventual trend resumption envisaged. Resistance resides at the 0.9085 level, its Jan 13 2014 high. A cut through here will set the stage for more upside towards the 0.9150 level and subsequently the 0.9200 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support resides at the 0.8887 level where a violation if seen will aim at the 0.8750 level and possibly lower towards the 0.8700 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside on corrective recovery.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

USDCAD: Bearish, Risk Points Lower On Further Weakness.

 

USDCAD: Our outlook on USDCAD remains lower with eyes on further weakness following its continued bearishness. Support lies at the 1.0967 level, its Feb 2014 low where a break will aim at the 1.0900 level, its psycho level. Below here will turn attention to the 1.0850 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, the pair will have retake the 1.1089 level to reverse its present downside pressure and bring further gains towards the 1.1121 level, its Feb 06 2014 high. A violation will aim at the 1.1223 level, its Jan 31 2014 high with a turn above here if seen setting off additional strength towards the 1.1300 level. All in all, USDCAD continues to face further downside threats

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

GOLD: Rallies, Set To Strengthen Further.

 

EURUSD: EUR looks to extend its bullish offensive with eyes on the 1.3739 level. A cut through here will aim at further upside towards the 1.3800 level, its psycho level. Further out, resistance is seen at the 1.3850 level and then the 1.3900 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Conversely to annul its past week gains it will have to return to the 1.3561 level where a break will turn focus to the 1.3476 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.3400 level, representing its psycho level where a breach will aim at its weekly 200 ema at the 1.3346 level. Additionally, support stands at the 1.3300 level and then the 1.3250 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the upside on further recovery.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

USDCAD: Vulnerable, Retains Bearish Tone

 

USDCAD: With the pair maintaining its downside pressure, further decline is likely. This leaves the pair targeting further downside towards the 1.0900 level, its psycho level where a violation will aim at the 1.0842 level, its previous week low. A follow-through lower if seen will open the door for a run at the 1.0736 level, its Dec 20 2013 high. A reversal of roles as support is likely to occur here and turn the pair higher from this level. However, if this fails to happen expect more weakness towards the 1.0650 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, resistance comes in at the 1.1000 level where a violation will set the stage for a run at the 1.1089 level. A breach will pave the way for a push towards the 1.1172 level, its big psycho level. It may face bear threats at this level but if broken, further upside could occur towards the 1.1200 level. All in all, USDCAD continues to face further bearishness on correction.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

EURUSD: Having continued to maintain its bullish out, it now looks to recapture the 1.3739 level followed by the 1.3800 level, its psycho level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.3893 level, its Dec 27 2013 high. This view is consistent with its long term uptrend. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support comes in at the 1.3673 level where a break will turn attention to the 1.3600 level and then the 1.3561 level, its Feb 12 2014 level followed by the 1.3476 level. Further down, support stands at the 1.3400 level, representing its psycho level where a breach will aim at its weekly 200 ema at the 1.3346 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the upside below its broken trendline.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

AUDUSD: Faces Consolidation Threats.

 

AUDUSD: With the pair’s failure to recapture the 0.9085 level triggering price consolidation, more downside pressure could be building up. Support lies at the 0.8926 level and then the 0.8900 level. However, in case it fails to follow through lower, expect AUDUSD to retake the 0.9080/5 levels. A cut through here will resume its short term uptrend towards the 0.9150 level where a break will pave the way for a run at the 0.9200 level and subsequently the 0.9250 level. Conversely, below the 0.8926/00 levels will mean further downside could be seen towards the 0.8887 level and followed by the 0.8800 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside on corrective recovery.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

GBPJPY: Vulnerable But Retains Its Broader Long Term Uptrend Bias

 

GBPJPY – The cross remains biased to the upside in the medium and long terms but now faces corrective downside. In order for it to resume its uptrend, it will have to break above the 171.15/87 levels. A breach could force further upside towards the 172.50 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 173.64 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Conversely, support comes in at the 169.11 level where a break will aim at the 168.00 level and then the 167.19 level. Further down, support resides at the 166.14 level, its Feb 07 2014 low with a break targeting further downside towards the 166.00 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the upside in the long term.