Technical Outlook, Strategies & Commentaries On The Major Currencies

[lukepearson 10]

Bullish on EUR/USD

More upside potential might be seen ahead in EUR/USD. Volatility is going to be two-sided before the FOMC. The markets remain too hawkish on the FOMC and any disappointment might see the cross pushing above 1.10 resistance for a move towards 1.12.

Why is the euro going up? The key reason for the euro’s climb remains the fundamental scenario in the eurozone. Today’s German IFO and money supply data remain positive for the eurozone economy and subsequently the inflation expectations which are guiding the single currency higher.

See more at: BoE might beat Fed for the hike, Gold short squeeze ahead, EUR/USD to 1.12? - Tip TV

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

GBPJPY: Triggers Recovery, Eyes More Upside.

 

GBPJPY: Outlook for the cross remains higher having triggered a strong recovery on Tuesday. We look for more strength to occur towards the 194.00 level. On the upside, resistance lies at the 195.00 level followed by the 196.00 level where a break will aim at the 197.00 level. A cut through here will aim at the 198.00 level. Further out, the 197.00 level comes in as the next resistance. Its daily RSI has turned higher supporting this view. On the downside, support comes in at the 192.00 level where a violation will aim at the 191.00 level. A break below here will target the 190.00 level followed by the 189.00 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the upside on correction

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

CRUDE OIL: Triggers Correction, Eyes More Strengthen

 

CRUDE OIL: With the commodity closing higher on further correction on Wednesday, it faces further upside pressure. On the downside, support lies at the 48.00 level where a break will expose the 47.00 level. A break will aim at the 46.00 level and then the 45.00 level. Below here will open the door for a run at the 44.00 level. On the upside, resistance resides at the 50.00 level where a break will expose the 51.00 level followed by the 52.00 level. A cut through here will aim at the 53.00 level. All in all, Crude Oil remains biased to the downside medium term.

 

[lukepearson 10]

Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, joined Tip Tv and shared her observations on EUR/USD, USD and on the rate hike scenario in UK.

EUR/USD: Resilient – but why?

Foley believes that EUR/USD has stood supported despite Greece related headlines, only due to fall in risk appetite. The stock market scenario in China, the expected Fed rate hike plan and political issues globally have kept the risk appetite levels lower. EUR should be behaving like a decent funding currency, but all these political issues not giving much to the euro carry trade.

Foley further comments that, even the emerging market currencies are up versus the EUR, which goes against the carry trade idea, and is supporting EUR/USD.

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

EURUSD: Sees Price Extension, Eyes The 1.0800 Level

 

EURUSD: With EUR extending its price weakness during Thursday trading session, threats of further downside pressure is envisaged. Support lies at the 1.0850 level where a violation will aim at the 1.0800 level. A break of here will aim at the 1.0750 level with a turn below that level targeting the 1.0700 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, resistance is seen at 1.0950 level with a cut through here opening the door for more downside towards the 1.1000 level. Further up, resistance lies at the 1.1050 level where a break will expose the 1.1100 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside in the medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

GBPJPY: Sets Up To Correct Lower

 

GBPJPY: The cross remains vulnerable to the downside after failing at higher level prices on Thursday. On the downside, support comes in at the 193.00 level where a violation will aim at the 192.00 level. A break below here will target the 191.00 level followed by the 190.00 level. On the upside, resistance lies at the 194.00 level followed by the 195.00 level where a break will aim at the 196.00 level. A cut through here will aim at the 197.00 level. Further out, the 198.00 level comes in as the next resistance. All in all, the cross remains biased to the downside short term.

 

[lukepearson 10]

Steven Woodcock, Senior FX Analyst for Plutus FX, joined Tip TV to elaborate on the currency outlook during the thin holiday months. Bearish on GBP/USD The GBPUSD has remained a range trade this week, according to Woodcock, who believes that the range will continue into next week, with possible downside for the sterling in the future. He noted that EURGBP had been a prime driver, and that we might see a relief rally, with a possible move to the 71/71.50 area, which would pressure the GBPUSD. GBP/CHF: Downside expected Woodcock commented that the GBPCHF will come down in the future, as the EURCHF begins to just turn over, but there is not much in the charts at the moment concerning the CHF. USD/CAD: Outlook depends on Canada GDP, but susceptible to the downside The USDCAD is onward and upward according to Woodcock, with the CAD being aided by the bank of Canada. He believes it has hit a tough point at 130.50, but with good Canadian numbers today there is a chance the USDCAD could break through. Alternatively, poor numbers or oil could cause a pull back. EUR/USD: Look at the crosses Woodcock finishes by adding the EURUSD has traded heavy recently, but argues that it does need a clear out. He believes a danger move could be to the upside, and decides that a cause for a spike in the EURUSD could be the EURGBP. Woodcock advises to watch the weaker side of the crosses to ascertain outlook for the euro dollar. - See more at: Forex outlook: EUR/GBP still guiding GBP/USD, Keep eyes on weak crosses - Tip TV

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

USDCHF: Sees Price Hesitation

 

USDCHF: Broader outlook for USDCHF may be higher but it faces the risk of a move lower following its price hesitation the past week. Resistance resides at the 0.9700 level with a breach targeting the 0.9750 level. A breather may occur here and turn the pair lower but if taken out, expect a push higher towards the 0.9800 level. On the downside, support comes in at the 0.9600 level. A turn below here will open the door for more weakness to occur towards the 0.9550 level and then the 0.9500 level. A cut through here will open the door for additional weakness towards the 0.9450 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside on further strength.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

EURUSD: Loses Upside Momentum, Faces Downside Risk

 

EURUSD: Having EUR reversed its entire past week gains to close flat, it now faces risk of a move lower in the new week. Support lies at the 1.0900 level where a violation will aim at the 1.0850 level. A break of here will aim at the 1.0600 level with a turn below that level targeting the 1.0550 level. Resistance is seen at 1.1050 level with a cut through here opening the door for more downside towards the 1.1100 level. Further up, resistance lies at the 1.1150 level where a break will expose the 1.1200 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

GOLD: Corrective Risk Developing

 

GOLD: With a marginal lower close seen the past following its price rejection, a move higher could be developing. Support comes in at the 1,080.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,069.00 level. A cut through here will open the door for move lower towards the 1,040.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure towards the 1,000.00 level. On the upside, resistance resides at the 1,210.08 level where a break will aim at the 1,225.000 followed by the 1,250.00 level. A violation of here will turn attention to the 1,270.00 level followed by the 1,180.00 level.. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the downside medium term but faces corrective recovery threats.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

GBPUSD: Risk Points Lower On Correction

 

GBPUSD: GBP continues to look vulnerable to the downside on correction with more decline envisaged. On the downside, support lies at the 1.5550 level where a break if seen will aim at the 1.5500 level. A break of here will turn attention to the 1.5450 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.5400 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower leaving risk to the downside. Conversely, resistance lies at the 1.5650 level with a break aiming at the 1.5700 level. A violation will aim at the 1.5750 level and possibly higher towards the 1.5800 level. On the whole, GBP continues to retain its downside bias but with caution.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

CRUDE OIL: Extends Weakness, Eyes Further Downside Pressure

 

CRUDE OIL: With outlook for the commodity continuing to point lower, further weakness remains on the cards. This development leaves Crude Oil targeting support located at the 45.00 level where a break will expose the 44.00 level. A break below here will aim at the 43.00 level and then the 42.00 level. Below here will open the door for a run at the 41.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. Conversely, on the upside, resistance resides at the 46.00 level where a break will expose the 47.00 level followed by the 48.00 level. A cut through here will aim at the 49.00 level. All in all, Crude Oil remains biased to the downside medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

USDJPY - Vulnerable Below The 124.47/57 Zone

 

USDJPY - With the pair continuing to maintain below its key resistance at 124.57 level, a move lower should occur. Support resides at the 123.50 level with a turn below here aiming at the 123.00 level. A break will target the 122.50 level. Further out, support comes in at the 122.00 level where a violation will aim at the 121.50 level. Conversely, resistance comes in at the 124.47/57 levels where a break will target the 125.00 level. Below here if seen will aim at the 125.50 level followed by the 126.00 level. On the whole, USDJPY remains exposed to the downside on corrective weakness.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

GBPUSD: Reverses Gain, Eyes Further Upside Pressure

 

GBPUSD: With GBP reversing its two-day weakness on Wednesday following a strong rally, risk of further move higher is likely. On the downside, support lies at the 1.5550 level where a break if seen will aim at the 1.5500 level. A break of here will turn attention to the 1.5450 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.5400 level. Conversely, on the upside, resistance resides at the 1.5700 level with a break aiming at the 1.5750 level. A violation will aim at the 1.5800 level and possibly higher towards the 1.5850 level. Its daily RSI is has turned suggesting further strength. On the whole, GBP looks to retain its recovery bias.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

GBPJPY: Turns Lower On Price Failure

 

GBPJPY: The cross turned lower on Thursday taking back most of its Wednesday gains. This development leaves the cross targeting further downside pressure. On the downside, support comes in at the 193.00 level where a violation will aim at the 192.00 level. A break below here will target the 191.00 level followed by the 190.00 level. On the upside, resistance lies at the 195.00 level followed by the 196.00 level where a break will aim at the 197.00 level. A cut through here will aim at the 198.00 level. Further out, the 198.50 level comes in as the next resistance. All in all, the cross remains biased to the upside.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

CRUDE OIL: Though maintaining its broader weakness, Crude Oil may see a recovery higher on correction in the days ahead. Resistance is located at the 46.00 level where a break will expose the 47.00 level. A break below here will aim at the 48.00 level and then the 49.00 level. Above here will open the door for a run at the 50.00 level. Conversely, on the downside, support resides at the 44.00 level where a break will expose the 43.00 level followed by the 42.00 level. A cut through here will aim at the 41.00 level. All in all, Crude Oil remains biased to the downside medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

USDCHF: With USDCHF extending its bullishness the past week, it now faces further upside pressure. However, with its daily hart spotting rejection candles, correction weakness could be seen in the new week. Resistance resides at the 0.9900 level with a breach targeting the 0.9950 level. A breather may occur here and turn the pair lower but if taken out, expect a push higher towards the 1.0000 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support comes in at the 0.9750 level. A turn below here will open the door for more weakness to occur towards the 0.9700 level and then the 0.9650 level. A cut through here will open the door for additional weakness towards the 0.9600 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

EURUSD: Risk Builds Up On With Eyes On 1.1128 Zone

 

EURUSD: Having EUR taken back most of its previous week losses to close flat the past week, we could see more recovery occurring in the new week. This development leaves risk higher in the new week though with caution. Support lies at the 1.0900 level where a violation will aim at the 1.0850 level. A break of here will aim at the 1.0600 level with a turn below that level targeting the 1.0550 level. Resistance is seen at 1.1050 level with a cut through here opening the door for more downside towards the 1.1100 level. Further up, resistance lies at the 1.1150 level where a break will expose the 1.1200 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside medium term but faces a recovery higher.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

GOLD: Bounces Off Lower Prices, Trades Above Key Support

 

GOLD: Our outlook remains higher as long as GOLD holds above its key supports at the 1,077/1,069 zone, it faces further recovery threats. Support comes in at the 1,080.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,069.00 level. A cut through here will open the door for move lower towards the 1,040.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure towards the 1,000.00 level. On the upside, resistance resides at the 1,210.08 level where a break will aim at the 1,225.000 followed by the 1,250.00 level. A violation of here will turn attention to the 1,270.00 level followed by the 1,180.00 level.. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the downside medium term but faces corrective recovery threats.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

GBPUSD: Sets To Recover Higher On Rejection Candle Formation

 

GBPUSD: GBP looks to recover higher following its rejection candle print on Friday. This development leaves the immediate risk higher with its lower level charts (see 4 hourly chart) turning higher. On the downside, support lies at the 1.5450 level where a break if seen will aim at the 1.5400 level. A break of here will turn attention to the 1.5350 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.5300 level. Conversely, resistance lies at the 1.5550 level with a break aiming at the 1.5600 level. A violation of that level will open the door for more strength towards the 1.5650 level. Further out, the 1.5700 level comes in as the next upside target. On the whole, GBP faces the risk of a recovery higher on correction.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

CRUDE OIL: Puts In Temporary Bottom, Targets 46.20 Area

 

CRUDE OIL: With Crude Oil putting in a temporary bottom on Monday, it faces a move higher on correction. Resistance is located at the 45.50 level where a break will expose the 46.20 level. A break below here will aim at the 47.00 level and then the 48.00 level. Above here if seen will open the door for a run at the 49.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing higher supporting this view. Conversely, on the downside, support resides at the 44.00 level where a break will expose the 43.00 level followed by the 42.00 level. A cut through here will aim at the 41.00 level. All in all, Crude Oil remains biased to the downside medium term but faces a recovery risk.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

EURUSD: Remains On The Offensive With Eyes On 1.1133 Level

 

EURUSD: With EUR maintaining its corrective bullish offensive, more strength towards its resistance located at 1.1133 level is likely in the days ahead. Support lies at the 1.1000 level where a violation will aim at the 1.0950 level. A break of here will aim at the 1.0900 level with a turn below that level targeting the 1.0850 level. Conversely, resistance is seen at 1.1100 level with a cut through here opening the door for more downside towards the 1.1150 level. Further up, resistance lies at the 1.1200 level where a break will expose the 1.1250 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength, All in all, EUR remains biased to the upside as it faces a corrective recovery higher nearer term

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

USDCAD: Bullish, Looks To Recapture Key Resistance

 

USDCAD: With the pair reversing its Monday losses on Tuesday to lose strongly higher, it now faces further move higher towards its key resistance at 1.3212 level. We may see price hesitation at that level but if taken our expect more strength to build towards the 1.3200 level followed by the 1.3250 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.3300 level where a turn lower may occur. But if further additional strength is triggered resistance comes in at the 1.3350 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support lies at the 1.3100 level followed by the 1.3050 level. Further down, support resides at the 1.3000 level and then the 1.2950 level. All in all, USDCAD remains biased to the upside in the medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

USDCHF: Tumbles Lower On Strong Sell-Off

 

USDCHF: With USDCHF turning lower on a strong sell-off on Wednesday, it now faces further corrective weakness in the days ahead. On the downside, support comes in at the 0.9700 level. A turn below here will open the door for more weakness to occur towards the 0.9650 level and then the 0.9600 level. A cut through here will open the door for additional weakness towards the 0.9550 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing lower supporting this view. Resistance resides at the 0.9800 level with a breach targeting the 0.9850 level. A breather may occur here and turn the pair lower but if taken out, expect a push higher towards the 0.9900 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside on corrective pullback

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

USDCAD: Trades Below Key Resistance, Retains Corrective Pullback Bias

 

USDCAD: With the pair reversing its Tuesday gains to close lower on Wednesday, risk of a follow through lower is envisaged. Despite its present price hesitation downside threat remains while the pair holds below the 1.3100/49 zone. Resistance resides at the 1.3050 level followed by the 1.3100 level. Further out, the 1.3150 level comes in as the next resistance with a break turning attention to the 1.3200 level. Above here if seen will expose the 1.3300 level. On the downside, support lies at the 1.2900 level followed by the 1.2850 level. Further down, support resides at the 1.2800 level and then the 1.2750 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. All in all, USDCAD remains biased to the downside on correction