Technical Outlook, Strategies & Commentaries On The Major Currencies

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

GOLD: Bearish, Broader Bias Remains Lower.

 

GOLD: With GOLD’s recovery now in trouble following a lower close on Monday, a return to the 1,187.17 level is expected. Further down, support comes in at the 1,150.00 level with a violation of here shifting attention to the 1,100.00 level. A turn below here will push the commodity further lower towards the 1,100.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, resistance comes in at the 1,211.00 level with a violation targeting further upside towards the 1,250.00 level followed by the 1,300.00 level followed by the 1,350.00 level. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the downside medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

USDJPY: Bullish, Risk Builds On The 104.62 Level.

 

USDJPY: With USDJPY halting its one-day pullback and closing higher for a second day in a row on Tuesday, a build on strength is expected on market resumption. In such a case, the 104.62 level. A violation of here will aim at the 105. towards the out the 103.91 level to resume its medium term bullishness, further upside offensive is likely. Resistance resides at the 104.50 level where a breach will aim at the 105.00 level and possibly higher towards the 105.50 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Conversely, on the downside, support comes in at the 103.73 level where a violation will turn attention to the 103.00 level and then the 102.50 level. Further down, support lies at the 101.61 level followed by the 101.00 level. On the whole, USDJPY remains exposed to the upside in the medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

USDCHF: Sells Off, Pressure Builds On The 0.8831 Level.

 

USDCHF: With USDCHF selling off strongly during Friday’s trading session, the risk is for continued weakness to occur towards the 0.8831/00 levels. Bulls may come in here and turn the pair higher but if that level is broken anticipate further decline to occur towards the 0.8750 level. Further down, support comes in at the 0.8700 level where a violation will aim at the 0.8650 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further downside. On the upside, resistance resides at the 0.8922 level where a reversal of roles as resistance is likely. However, a breach if seen will expose the 0.9000 level followed by the 0.9050 level and then the 0.9100 level. Further out, resistance lies at the 0.9190 level followed by the 0.9249 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside in the medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

USDJPY: Bullish, Builds On Long Term Uptrend.

 

USDJPY: With the pair bullish and threatening further upside, the risk is for more strength to occur in the new week. As long as USDJPY trades and holds above the 103.73 level, our upside view remains valid. Resistance resides at the 105.00 level. Above here will resume its broader upside towards the 106.00 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 106.50 level with a violation of here turning focus on the 107.00 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support resides at the 104.50 level where a breach will aim at the 103.73 level. A reversal of roles is likely to occur here and turn the pair higher. Further down, support lies at the 102.15 level and then the 101.50 level. On the whole, USDJPY remains exposed to the upside medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

USDCAD: With USDCAD holding on its broader uptrend, it now requires a break and hold above the 1.0736 level. A cut through here will pave the way for a run at the 1.0800 level where a violation will turn attention to the 1.0850 level and then the 1.0900 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further upside. Conversely, support lies at the 1.0650 level where a breach will set the stage for a push further lower towards the 1.0600 level and then the 1.0549 level. A reversal of roles as support is likely to occur and turn the pair higher but if that fails, expect a move towards the 1.0413 level with a break targeting the 1.0350 level. All in all, USDCAD continues to face further upside threats medium term

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

GBPUSD: Bullish, Heads Further Higher On Strength.

 

 

GBPUSD: Having continued to maintain its bullishness, the challenge is for the pair to retake the 1.6577 level, its Dec 2013 high. This if seen will push GBP further higher towards the 1.6614 level, representing its Aug 14 2011 high where a break will pave the way for a run at the 1.6650 level, its psych level. On further price extension, the pair will aim at the 1.6700 level where a violation will turn attention to the 1.6743 level, its April 24 2011 high and possibly higher towards the 1.6800 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. Conversely, support lies at the 1.6459 level where a breach will expose the 1.6404 level, its Dec 27 2013 low. Further down, support resides at the 1.6321 level, its Dec 24 2013 low where a breach will push it further lower towards the 1.6259 level, its Oct 01 2013 high. Price cap is expected here if tested. On the whole, GBP continues to retain its medium term bullish bias.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

EURUSD: Pulls Back, Faces More Bear Threats.

 

EURUSD: EUR now faces risk of more downside pressure having followed through lower on the back of its Tuesday weakness. Support comes in at the 1.3687 level, its Dec 27’2013 low with a breach targeting the 1.3624 level, representing its Dec 24’2013 low and and then the 1.3550 level. We may see the bulls come in here and push the pair higher. However, if this fails to occur, expect further downside threats towards the 1.3500 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, resistance resides at the 1.3766 level, its Jan 02 2014 high where a violation if seen will pave the way for a run at the 1.3810/31 levels. A cut through here will expose the 1.3850 level and subsequently the 1.3900 level. All in all, EUR continues to face bear triggered on pullbacks.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

AUDUSD: Bullish, Resumes Corrective Recovery.

 

AUDUSD: With AUDUSD rallying through the 0.8957 level, its Dec 23 2013 high to resume its corrective recovery, there is risk of continued upside in the days ahead. This development leaves further bull pressure towards the 0.9050 level, its psycho level where a violation will aim at the 0.9082/0.9100 levels. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9166 level, its Dec 10 2013 low. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Conversely, support comes in at the 0.8957 level, its Dec 23 2013 high where a reversal of roles is expected to occur and turn the pair higher. However, if this level fails to hold, expect further decline to occur towards the 0.8884 level followed by the 0.8850 level and finally, the 0.8800 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside on recovery.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

EURUSD: Bearish, Sells Off On Loss Of Upside Momentum

 

EURUSD: With EUR reversing its previous week gains to close lower on sell off, there is risk of continued weakness in the new week. While the pair holds below the 1.3624 level, further decline cannot be avoided. Further down, support stands at the 1.3600 level with a break turning focus to the 1.3500 level and possibly lower towards the 1.3400 level. We may see bulls come in here and turn the pair higher. On the upside, for EUR to annul its present weakness and resume its broader medium term uptrend, it will have to recapture the 1.3893 level, its Dec 2013 high. This if seen will call for a run at the 1.3950 level and then its big psycho level at the 1.4000 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside on corrective pullbacks.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

EURJPY- The cross turned lower the past week following a back off higher level prices and declined further during Monday trading session. This development leaves it weak and vulnerable to the downside with eyes on the 141.49 level where a breach will aim at the 140.97 level. A cut through that level will open the door for a run at the 140.50 level and then the 140.00 level. A turn below here will target the 139.50 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the other hand, resistance resides at the 143.00 level with a cut through here paving the way for a run at the 143.50 level followed by the 144.00 level. Above here if seen will aim at the 144.50 and then the 145.00 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the upside in the long term despite its pullback attempts.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

CRUDE OIL: Continued Bearishness Exposes The 92.10 Level.

 

CRUDE OIL: The commodity continues to sell off declining further today on the back of the past week losses. This development has exposed its immediate support located at the 93.00 level where a violation will turn focus to the 92.10 level, its Dec 27’2013 low. Further down, support comes in at the 91.00 level where a break will target the 90.00 level, its big psycho level. The bulls may come in here and push the commodity back up. However, if that fails to occur expect Crude Oil to weaken further. In such a case, the 89.00 level will be aimed at. Its daily and weekly RSI are bearish and pointing lower supporting its bearish tone. Conversely, resistance resides at the 94.00 level with a breach of here exposing the 95.00 level and subsequently the 96.00 level. All in all, Crude Oil remains biased to the downside in the medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

EURGBP- Declines Sharply, Faces Additional Bearishness

 

EURGBP- With corrective recovery attempts fading and strong sell off seen, the risk is for the cross to retake the 0.8251 level. Further down, support comes in at the 0.8200 level. A clearance of here will turn attention to the 0.8150 level where a violation will aim at the 0.8100 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, a return above the 0.8331 level will have to occur to open the door for a run at the 0.8400 level and then the 0.8466 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the downside medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

AUDUSD: Bearish, Eyes The 0.8822 Level.

 

AUDUSD: We continue to hold our downside outlook on AUDUSD as it remains weak and declining. This development leaves the pair targeting the 0.8822 level, its Dec 19 2013 low where a break will aim at further downside towards the 0.8750 level. Further down, support stands at the 0.8700 level, its big psycho level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, resistance resides at the 0.8970 level with a breach targeting the 0.8950 level followed by the 0.9004 level, its Jan 03 2014 low. A cut through here will aim at the 0.9200 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 0.9166 level. All in all, the pair remains bearish in the medium term on further downside pressure.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

USDCAD: Biased To The Upside On Further Price Extension

 

USDCAD: With the pair maintaining its bullish bias, we look for more upside to occur. This development has exposed the 1.0874 level with a cut through here aiming at the 1.0900 level with a turn above here paving the way for a run at the 1.0950 level and possibly higher towards the 1.1000 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further upside. On the other hand, support comes at the 1.0736 level, representing its Dec 20 2013 high. Further down, downside object resides at the 1.0651 level, its Jan 06’2014 low where a violation will aim at the 1.0600 level and then the 1.0550 level. A reversal of roles is likely to occur here and turn USDCAD higher. All in all, USDCAD continues to face further upside threats on bullishness.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

USDCAD: Biased To The Upside On Further Price Extension

 

USDCAD: With the pair maintaining its bullish bias, we look for more upside to occur. This development has exposed the 1.0874 level with a cut through here aiming at the 1.0900 level with a turn above here paving the way for a run at the 1.0950 level and possibly higher towards the 1.1000 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further upside. On the other hand, support comes at the 1.0736 level, representing its Dec 20 2013 high. Further down, downside object resides at the 1.0651 level, its Jan 06’2014 low where a violation will aim at the 1.0600 level and then the 1.0550 level. A reversal of roles is likely to occur here and turn USDCAD higher. All in all, USDCAD continues to face further upside threats on bullishness.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

USDCHF: Loses Upside Momentum, Vulnerable To The Downside.

 

USDCHF: With USDCHF failing to follow through on the back of its previous week gains at the end of the week, the risk is for further downside threats to occur. This development exposes the 0.8971 level where a break will pave the way for a run at the 0.8900 level followed by the 0.8850 level and subsequently the 0.87.79 level. Below here if seen will set the stage for more decline towards the 0.8700 level. On the other hand, resistance resides at the 0.9126 level, its Jan 08’2013 high where a violation if seen will pave the way for a run at the 0.9191 level, representing its Nov 20 2013 high. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside in the medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

EURUSD: Bounces Off Rising Trendline, Eyes Further Upside

 

EURUSD: Having closed higher following a recovery off its rising trendline (red) the past week, there is risk of a follow through higher in the new week. In such a case, resistance resides at the 1.3700 level where a violation will set the stage for a run at the 1.3818 level, its Dec 30 2013 high. A turn above here will set the stage for a move higher towards the 1.3897 level, its Dec 27 2013 high. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside support resides at 1.3548 level, representing the location of its rising trendline. Further down, support lies at the 1.3500 level and possibly lower towards the 1.3400 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the upside I the medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

AUDUSD: Strengthens, Eyes Further Upside.

 

AUDUSD: With AUDUSD bullish and recovering higher taking out the 0.9004 level, its Jan 03’2013 high, further strength is expected in the days ahead. Immediate resistance comes in at the 0.9050 level with a cut through here paving the way for a run at the 0.9100 level, its psycho level. A violation of here if seen will target the 0.9166 level, its Dec 10 2013 high. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9200 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Alternatively, on pullback, support comes in at the 0.9004 level the 0.8900 level, its psycho level where a reversal of roles is expected to occur and turn the pair higher. However, if this level fails to hold, expect further decline to occur towards the 0.8824 level and subsequently the 0.8800 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside on recovery.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

EURUSD: Hesitates But Biased To Upside On Recovery

 

EURUSD: With a second day of recovery occurring on Monday, there is risk of further price extension. This development could force the pair to recapture the 1.3700 level where a violation will mean further upside pressure towards its Jan 02 2014 high at 1.3766 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.3818 level, representing its Dec 30 2013 high. A turn above here will pave the way for the pair to push further higher towards its Dec2013 high at the 1.3893 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the other hand, support comes in at the 1.3571 level where a break will turn attention to the 1.3548 level. We expect a cap to occur here and turn the pair back up but if taken out expect more decline towards the 1.3500 level. We may see the bulls come in here and push the pair higher. All in all, EUR continues to retain its upside bias in the medium term but faces corrective weakness

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

USDCAD: Bullish, Eyes Further Strength.

 

USDCAD: With USDCAD resuming its broader upside, it looks to strengthen further towards the 1.1000 level, its big psycho level. Above here will pave the way for a run at the 1.1050 level and possibly higher towards the 1.1100 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further upside. On the other hand, support comes at the 1.0900 level followed by the 1.0842 level where a violation will set the stage for a run at the 1.0736 level, representing its Dec 20 2013 high. Additionally, downside objective resides at the 1.0651 level, its Jan 06’2014 low and subsequently the 1.0600 level. All in all, USDCAD continues to face further upside threats in the long term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

AUDUSD: Bearish, Deeper Weakness Triggered

 

AUDUSD: With a third day of downside pressure seeing AUDUSD breaking through its key support at the 0.8822 level, further weakness is envisaged. Support lies at 0.8750 level, its psycho level where bulls may come in. However, if that level fails to hold, expect further decline to occur towards the 0.8700 level, its psycho level and subsequently the 0.8650 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, resistance resides at the 0.8915 level, its Jan 16’2014 high followed by the 0.9000 level, its big psycho level with a cut through here paving the way for a run at the 0.9050 level. Further out, upside objective comes in at the 0.9166 level, its Dec 10 2013 high. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside on further weakness.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

EURGBP- Bearish, Sells Off Sharply.

 

EURGBP- With a strong sell off underway, risk of further decline is envisaged towards the 0.8230 level, its Jan 09 2014 low. Further down, support comes in at the 0.8200 level, its psycho level where a breach will pave the way for a run at the 0.8150 level. A clearance of here will turn attention to the 0.8100 level, its psycho level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, in case of a recovery resistance resides at the 0.8285 level, its Jan 15 2014 level followed by the 0.8348 level. Above here if seen will resume the cross’s recovery towards the 0.8400 level and then the 0.8466 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the downside in the medium term

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

USDCHF: Sets Up To Resume Short Term Uptrend.

 

USDCHF: With USDCHF reversing almost all of its previous week losses to close higher at the end of the week, the risk is for the pair to recapture the 0.9126 level in the new week. Above here will trigger the resumption of its short term recovery offensive towards the 0.9200 level, its psycho level. A violation of here will aim at the 0.9249 level, its Nov 07’2013 high and then the 0.9300 level, its psycho level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the other hand, support lies at the 0.9031 level, its Jan 16’2014 low where a break will target its psycho level at the 0.8986 level, its Jan 13’2014 low. Below here if seen will open the door for more downside towards the 0.8950 level and then the 0.8900 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside in the short term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

EURUSD: Weakens On Loss Of Trendline Support

 

EURUSD: With a reversal of its previous week gains and a break below its rising trendline support occurring the past week, further downside is likely. Support stands at the 1.3489 level where a violation will aim at the 1.3400 level, its psycho level. Further down, support resides at the 1.3300 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further downside. On the upside, resistance comes in at the 1.3600 level its psycho level where a violation will aim at the 1.3698 level, its Jan 14 2014 high. Further out, the 1.3818 level, its Dec 30 2013 high comes in as the next resistance on a break of the 1.3698 level. A turn above the 1.3818 level will set the stage for a move higher towards the 1.3897 level, its Dec 27 2013 high. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside on further bear threats.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

GOLD: Maintains Its Recovery Tone.

 

 

GOLD: While our immediate bias on GOLD remains higher on correction, the commodity will have to take out the 1,267.75 level, its Dec 10’2013 high to convince the market of price extension. However, as long as the mentioned level continues to hold as resistance the risk remains lower despite the mentioned recovery. On the upside, resistance resides at the 1,267.75 level, its Dec 10 2013 high. A cut through here will create scope for a move higher towards the 1,300.00 level where a violation if seen will turn focus to the 1,350.00 level. Conversely, support stands at the 1,218.35 level, representing its Jan 08’2014 low. This level must hold to prevent a return to the 1,182.33 level, its Dec 31’2013 low from occurring. However, if this is violated it will aim at the 1,150.00 level followed by the 1,100.00 level with a turn below the latter shifting attention to the 1,050 level.. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the downside in the medium term.