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FXTechstrategy Team

Technical Outlook, Strategies & Commentaries On The Major Currencies

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GOLD: Extends Corrective Weakness, Remains Bearish

 

GOLD: The commodity’s outlook remains lower after extending its corrective weakness on Tuesday. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,130.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,110.00 level. A cut through here will open the door for move lower towards the 1,100.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure towards the 1,080.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. On the upside, resistance resides at the 1,150.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,170.000 followed by the 1,200.00 level. A violation of here will turn attention to the 1,220.00 level. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the downside short term.

 

XAUUSDDaily2.png

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EURJPY Declines, Sees Further Bearishness

 

EURJPY: With the cross weakening further for a third day in a row, further bearishness is envisaged On the downside, support comes in at the 135.50 level where a break will aim at the 135.00 level. A turn below here will target the 134.50 level with a breach turning focus to the 134.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, resistance lies at the 137.00 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 137.50 level where a break if seen will threaten further upside towards the 138.00. Further out, resistance resides at the 139.50 level. All in all, the cross now faces downside pressure on corrective weakness.

 

EURJPYDaily4.png

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AUDUSD: Broader Bias Remains Lower But With Caution.

 

AUDUSD: AUDUSD may be biased to the downside but faces a recovery threat while holding above the 0.7037 level. However, we should see a move higher if the mentioned support remains unbroken. On the downside, support resides at the 0.7050 level where a breach will aim at the 0.7000 level. Below that level will set the stage for a run at the 0.6950 level with a cut through here targeting further downside towards the 0.6900 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, resistance lies at the 0.7150 level. A cut through here will turn attention to the 0.7200 level and then the 0.7250 level where a violation will set the stage for a retarget of the 0.7300 level. On the whole, AUDUSD continues to retain its downside Pressure.

 

AUDUSDDaily.png

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EURUSD Weakens Further, Targets Key Support

 

EURUSD: EUR declined sharply on Wednesday and was seen weakening further during Thursday trading today. This development leaves the pair targeting its key support located at the 1.1128 level. Immediate support lies at the 1.1200 level where a violation will aim at the 1.1150 level. A break of here will aim at the 1.1100 level with a turn below that level targeting the 1.1050 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, resistance is seen at 1.1300 level with a cut through here opening the door for more downside towards the 1.1350 level. Further up, resistance lies at the 1.1400 level where a break will expose the 1.1450 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside on further weakness.

 

EURUSDDaily2.png

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GBPJPY: GBPJPY has halted its weakness to close higher on Thursday, leaving eyes on further upside. On the downside, support comes in at the 186.00 level where a violation will aim at the 185.00 level. A break below here will target the 184.00 level followed by the 183.00 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the upside, resistance lies at the 187.50 level followed by the 188.00 level where a break will aim at the 189.00 level. A cut through here will aim at the 190.00 level. Further out, the 191.00 level comes in as the next resistance All in all, the cross remains biased to the downside but with warning.

 

GBPJPYDaily3.png

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EURJPY: Halts Weakness, Eyes More Recovery

 

EURJPY: The pair recovered on Thursday and followed through on Friday though marginally to put in a temporary bottom. This development could suggest a move further higher on more recovery as we enter a new week. In such a case, support comes in at the 135.50 level where a break will aim at the 135.00 level. A turn below here will target the 134.50 level with a breach turning focus to the 134.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, resistance lies at the 137.00 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 137.50 level where a break if seen will threaten further upside towards the 138.00. Further out, resistance resides at the 139.50 level. All in all, the cross now faces downside pressure on corrective weakness.

 

EURJPYDaily5.png

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USDCHF: Bull Pressure Opens Up Further Strength.

 

USDCHF: The pair closed higher off its low at the 0.9257 level to open the door for more strength in the new week. On the upside, resistance resides at the 0.9700 level with a breach targeting the 0.9798 level. A respite may occur here and turn the pair lower but if taken out, expect a push further higher towards the 0.9800 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, support comes in at the 0.9550 level. A turn below here will open the door for more weakness to occur towards the 0.9500 level and followed by the 0.9450 level. A cut through here will clear the way for additional weakness towards the 0.9400 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside.

 

USDCHFWeekly3.png

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EURCHF Remains Weak And Vulnerable

 

EURCHF: Having taken back its gains to close lower the past week, further weakness is envisaged in the new week. Support lies at the 1.0700 level where a break will aim at the 1.0650 level and then the 1.0600 level. Its weekly RSI has turned lower suggesting further downside pressure. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1.0800 level where a break will aim at the 1.0850 level. A break of here will have to occur to create scope for a run at the 1.0900 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.0950 level. All in all, EURCHF remains biased to the downside in the short term.

 

EURCHFWeekly1.png

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EURUSD: Bias Remains To The Downside

 

EURUSD: EUR lost its upside momentum to close lower the past week leaving further downside pressure on the cards in the new week. However, note that a consolidation with a pullback higher may occur. Support lies at the 1.1100 level where a violation will aim at the 1.1050 level. A break of here will aim at the 1.1000 level with a turn below that level targeting the 1.0950 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further downside pressure. Conversely, resistance is seen at 1.1250 level with a cut through here opening the door for more downside towards the 1.1300 level. Further up, resistance lies at the 1.1350 level where a break will expose the 1.1400 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the upside on correction.

 

EURUSDWeekly5.png

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GOLD Declines On Price Failure

 

GOLD: GOLD took back almost all of its previous week losses the past week to close lower on Friday. This development leaves risk lower with more weakness envisaged. However, a recovery in the new week may occur. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,115.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,100.00 level. A cut through here will open the door for move lower towards the 1,080.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure towards the 1,060.00 level. On the upside, resistance resides at the 1,150.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,170.000 followed by the 1,200.00 level. A violation of here will turn attention to the 1,220.00 level. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the downside short term.

 

XAUUSDWeekly4.png

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GBPUSD: Key Support To Cap Downside Pressure

 

GBPUSD: GBP sold off strongly the past week leaving risk of more declines. However, we think while its key support at the 1.5329 level holds as support a move higher on recovery should occur. On the downside, support lies at the 1.5300 level where a break if seen will aim at the 1.5250 level. A break of here will turn attention to the 1.5200 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.5150 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. Conversely, resistance stands at the 1.5450 level with a turn above here allowing more strength to build up towards the 1.5500 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.5550 level followed by the 1.5600 level. On the whole, GBP faces the risk of further weakness.

 

GBPUSDDaily5.png

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USDCAD Loses Upside Momentum, Eyes Bear Pressure

 

USDCAD: With USDCAD seen taking back its intra day gains during Monday trading session, risk of more weakness is now envisaged. Resistance resides at the 1.3212 level where a break will target the 1.3250 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.3300 level where a turn lower may occur. But if further recovery is triggered resistance comes in at the 1.3350 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. On the downside, support lies at the 1.3150 level followed by the 1.3000 level. Further down, support resides at the 1.2950 level and then the 1.2900 level. All in all, USDCAD remains biased to the downside below its key support at 1.3352 level.

 

USDCADDaily6.png

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CRUDE OIL Sees Further Bullishness Offensive

 

CRUDE OIL: Having the commodity extended its bullish offensive on Monday, further strength is envisaged. Resistance is located at the 49.00 level where a break will expose the 50.00 level. A break below here will aim at the 51.00 level and then the 52.00 level. Above here if seen will open the door for a run at the 53.00 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further upside. On the downside, support resides at the 47.00 level where a break will expose the 46.00 level followed by the 45.00 level. A cut through here will aim at the 44.00 level. All in all, Crude Oil remains biased to the upside on recovery.

 

WTIDaily.png

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USDJPY Slumps On Further Bear Pressure

 

USDJPY: With the pair experiencing a second day of weakness on Tuesday, risk of a move further lower is expected. On the downside, support comes in at the 119.00 level where a break will target the 118.50 level. Below here if seen will aim at the 118.00 level followed by the 117.50 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. On the upside, resistance resides at the 120.50 level with a turn above here aiming at the 121.00 level. A break will target the 121.50 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 122.00 level where a violation will aim at the 122.50 level. On the whole, USDJPY remains exposed to the downside on pullbacks

 

USDJPYDaily.png

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EURGBP Closes In On Key Resistance At 0.7421 Level

 

EURGBP: With the cross extending its bullish offensive on Tuesday, it faces the risk of a move further higher towards its Aug 2015 high at the 0.7421 level. On the upside, resistance lies at the 0.7450 level where a violation if seen will turn risk towards the 0.7500 level. Further out, the 0.7550 level comes in as the next upside target followed by the 0.7600 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. Conversely, support lies at the 0.7350 level where a violation will turn focus to the 0.7300 level. A break below here will expose the 0.7250 level. Further down, support comes in at the 0.7200 level. All in all, the cross is biased to the upside short term with eyes on key resistance

 

EURGBPDaily.png

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EURJPY: Broader Risk Points To The Downside

 

EURJPY: The pair resumed its short term weakness on Tuesday leaving risk of further weakness on the cards. This view remains valid while the cross trades and holds below the 136.60 level. Support comes in at the 134.50 level where a break will aim at the 134.00 level. A turn below here will target the 133.50 level with a breach turning focus to the 133.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, resistance lies at the 136.00 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 136.50 level where a break if seen will threaten further upside towards the 137.00. Further out, resistance resides at the 137.50 level. All in all, the cross now faces downside pressure on corrective weakness.

 

EURJPYDaily.png

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GOLD: Halts Recovery, Vulnerable Below 1,147/50 Zone

 

GOLD: GOLD looks to has capped its recovery strength at 1,147.87 level following the formation of a rejection candle on Tuesday. This price action suggests bear pressure could be developing. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,120.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,110.00 level. A cut through here will open the door for move lower towards the 1,100.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure towards the 1,080.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. On the upside, resistance resides at the 1,150.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,170.000 followed by the 1,200.00 level. A violation of here will turn attention to the 1,220.00 level. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the downside in the short term.

 

XAUUSDDaily.png

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GBPJPY Bounces Higher, Threatens Further Bull Pressure

 

GBPJPY: GBPJPY turned higher on Wednesday taking back some its losses and opening the door for more strength. On the downside, support comes in at the 183.00 level where a violation will aim at the 182.00 level. A break below here will target the 181.00 level followed by the 180.00 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the upside, resistance lies at the 185.00 level followed by the 186.00 level where a break will aim at the 187.00 level. A cut through here will aim at the 188.00 level. Further out, the 189.00 level comes in as the next resistance All in all, the cross remains biased to the upside on further recovery pressure

 

GBPJPYDaily.png

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EURUSD: Bearish Momentum Turns Risk To Key Support.

 

EURUSD: EUR took further losses on Thursday for a second day in a row This development leaves risk of more weakness towards its key support located at the 1.1016 level, its Aug 18 2015 low. Support lies at the 1.1100 level where a violation will aim at the 1.1050 level. A break of here will aim at the 1.1000 level with a turn below that level targeting the 1.0950 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. Conversely, resistance is seen at 1.1200 level with a cut through here opening the door for more downside towards the 1.1250 level. Further up, resistance lies at the 1.1300 level where a break will expose the 1.1350 level. All in all, risk remains biased to the downside in the short term

 

EURUSDDaily.png

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USDCHF: Threatening Further Bullishness

 

USDCHF: With USDCHF strengthening further on Thursday, it looks to target further upside pressure. On the downside, support comes in at the 0.9700 level. A turn below here will open the door for more weakness to occur towards the 0.9650 level and then the 0.9600 level. A cut through here will open the door for additional weakness towards the 0.9550 level. On the other hand, resistance lies at the 0.9800 level with a breach targeting the 0.9850 level. A breather may occur here and turn the pair lower but if taken out, expect a push higher towards the 0.9900 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside medium term.

 

USDCHFDaily.png

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USDJPY Sells Off, Targets Further Downside Pressure

 

USDJPY: The pair followed through lower on the back of its Thursday weakness during early trading on Friday. This leaves risk of more weakness. On the downside, support comes in at the 118.50 level where a break will target the 118.00 level. Below here if seen will aim at the 117.50 level followed by the 117.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, resistance resides at the 119.50 level with a turn above here aiming at the 120.00 level. A break will target the 120.50 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 121.00 level where a violation will aim at the 121.50 level. On the whole, USDJPY remains exposed to the downside on further weakness

 

USDJPYDaily1.png

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EURCAD Faces Downside Pressure Below The 1.5560 Level

 

EURCAD: Although EURCAD closed almost flat the past week, it still faces further weakness while holding below its major resistance located at the 1.5560 level. Support comes in at 1.4700 level with a cut through here opening the door for more weakness to occur towards the 1.4613 level. Further down, on continued bear pressure the 1.4500 level is seen as the next downside target where a violation will turn attention to the 1.4400 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. On the contrary, resistance is located at the 1.4800 level followed by the 1.4900 level. Further out, resistance is seen at the 1.4950 level and subsequently the 1.5000 level. All in all, EURCAD remains biased to the downside on further corrective pullback.

 

EURCADWeekly.png

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AUDUSD Sees Huge Sell Off, Retains Bearish Tone

 

AUDUSD: With AUDUSD selling off at the end of the week to follow through lower on the back of its previous week losses, more bear pressure is envisaged. On the downside, support resides at the 0.6800 level where a breach will aim at the 0.6750 level. Below that level will set the stage for a run at the 0.6700 level with a cut through here targeting further downside towards the 0.6650 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting further weakness. On the upside, resistance lies at the 0.7000 level. A cut through here will turn attention to the 0.7050 level and then the 0.7100 level where a violation will set the stage for a retarget of the 0.7150 level. On the whole, AUDUSD continues to retain its long term downside pressure.

 

AUDUSDWeekly.png

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NZDUSD Follows Through Lower, Targets Further Weakness

 

NZDUSD: With the pair following through lower on the back of its previous week losses the past week, it now faces further downside pressure. On the other hand, we may see some form of corrective recovery if it can trade and hold above its key support located at the 0.6125 level. Support is seen at 0.6200 level with a cut through here opening the door for more weakness towards the 0.6150level. Further down, on additional bear pressure the 0.6100 level will be targeted as the next downside target where a violation will turn focus to the 0.6050 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. Conversely, resistance is located at the 0.6350 level with a cut through that level opening the door for a run at the 0.6400 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 0.6450 level and then the 1.5000 level. All in all, NZDUSD remains biased to the downside in the long term.

 

NZDUSDWeekly.png

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    • A custom Semi-Log Scale Oscillator indicator is now available for MT5 on Metaquotes website and directly in the MT5 platform. https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/114705 This indicator is an anchored semi-logarithmic scale oscillator. A logarithmic scale is widely used by professional data scientists to more accurately map information collected throughout a timeframe, in the same way that MT5 maps out price data. In fact, the underlying logic of this indicator was freely obtained from an overseas biotech scientist. A log-log chart displays logarithmic values on both the x (horizontal) and y (vertical) axes, which generally produces a straight line that points up, down, or remains flat. A straight line is not very useful for trading markets because such a straight line is so smoothed that actual price values that appear over time are very far away from the line study. In contrast, a semi-log chart is only logged on one axis--generally, the y axis. Such a semi-log chart is well suited for trading markets because the time (x) axis is preserved in its original form while at the same time, providing a graduated y scale where the distance between price increments progressively increases as price rises higher (and decreases as price falls lower). This allows us to establish a zero level for a low price, clearly view trends on straighter angles, and clearly observe amplified price spikes at high prices. Accordingly, this indicator employs a semi-log scale on the y axis only. This indicator is anchored because it allows you to specify a start time for calculation of price bars. The settings are as follows: Year.Month.Day Hour:Minute - defaults to 1970.01.01 00:01 - if left on default setting, the indicator automatically detects the earliest price bar in chart history--even where the year 1970 is not in history. Notes appear in the indicator settings window. Size of first pip step to log - defaults to 135 - this default is suitable for higher timeframes such a MN1 (monthly), while 5 is suitable for lower timeframes such as M1 (minute). Ultimately, optimal settings will depend on the timeframe that you attach the indicator to, the level of price volatility within that timeframe, and start time that you choose. Remember... The semi-log formula calculates from low to high, so your start time must always be a major swing low. Again, notes appear in the indicator settings window. The standard (built-in) MT5 indicators that can be applied to the "Previous indicator's data" can be applied to this indicator. Indicator lines (indicator buffers) can be called with iCustom in Expert Advisors created by Expert Advisor builder software or custom coded Expert Advisors. The log scale Open, High, Low, and Close prices are buffers: No empty values; and No repainting.
    • A custom Gann Candles indicator is now available for MT5 on the Metaquotes website and directly in the MT5 platform. https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/126398 This Gann Candles indicator incorporates a series of W.D. Gann's strategies into a single trading indicator. Gann was a legendary trader who lived from 1878 to 1955. He started out as a cotton farmer and started trading at age 24 in 1902. His strategies included geometry, astronomy, astrology, times cycles, and ancient math. Although Gann wrote several books, none of them contain all of his strategies so it takes years of studying to learn them. He was also a devout scholar of the Bible and the ancient Greek and Egyptian cultures, and he was a 33rd degree Freemason of the Scottish Rite. In an effort to simplify what I believe are the best of Gann's strategies, I reduced them into one indicator that simply colors your preexisting price bars when those strategies are in-sync versus out-of-sync. This greatly reduces potential chart clutter. Also, I reduced the number of input settings down to only two: FastFilter, and SlowFilter Both FastFilter and SlowFilter must be set to 5 or more, as noted in the Inputs tab upon attaching the indicator to your chart. Gann Candles works on regular time-based charts (M5, M15, M20, etc.) and custom charts (Renko, range bars, etc.). The indicator does not repaint. When using the default settings, blue candles form bullish price patterns, gray candles form flat (sideways) price patterns, and white candles form bearish price patterns. The simplest way to trade Gann Candles is to buy at the close of a blue candle and exit at the close of a gray candle, and then sell at the close of a white candle and exit at the close of a gray candle.
    • A custom Anchored VWAP with Standard Deviation Bands indicator for MT5 is now available on the Metaquotes website and directly through the MT5 platform. https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/99389 The volume weighted average price indicator is a line study indicator that shows in the main chart window of MT5. The indicator monitors the typical price and then trading volume used to automatically push the indicator line toward heavily traded prices. These prices are where the most contracts (or lots) have been traded. Then those weighted prices are averaged over a look back period, and the indicator shows the line study at those pushed prices. The indicator in this post allows the trader to set the daily start time of that look back period. This indicator automatically shows 5 daily look back periods: the currently forming period, and the 4 previous days based on that same start time. For this reason, this indicator is intended for intraday trading only. The indicator automatically shows vertical daily start time separator lines for those days as well. Both typical prices and volumes are accumulated throughout the day, and processed throughout the day. Important update: v102 of this indicator allows you to anchor the start of the VWAP and bands to the most recent major high or low, even when that high or low appears in your chart several days ago. This is how institutional traders and liquidity providers often trade markets with the VWAP. This indicator also shows 6 standard deviation bands, similarly to the way that a Bollinger Bands indicator shows such bands. The trader is able to set 3 individual standard deviation multiplier values above the volume weighted average price line study, and 3 individual standard deviation multiplier values below the volume weighted average price line study. Higher multiplier values will generate rapidly expanding standard deviation bands because again, the indicator is cumulative. The following indicator parameters can be changed by the trader in the indicator Inputs tab: Volume Type [defaults to: Real volume] - Set to Tick volume for over-the-counter markets such as most forex markets. Real volume is an additional setting for centralized markets such as the United States Chicago Mercantile Exchange. VWAP Start Hour [defaults to: 07] - Set according to broker's or broker-dealer's MT5 server time in 24 hour format. For example, in the New York, United States time zone, 07 is approximately the London, United Kingdom business open hour. VWAP Start Minute [defaults to: 00] - Set according to broker's or broker-dealer's MT5 server time in 24 hour format. For example, 00 is on the hour with no delay of minutes within that hour. StdDev Multiplier 1 [defaults to: 1.618] - Set desired standard deviation distance between the volume weighted average price line study and its nearest upper and lower bands. For example, 1.618 is a basic Fibonacci ratio. Some traders prefer 1.000 or 1.250 here. StdDev Multiplier 2 [defaults to: 3.236] - Set desired standard deviation distance between the volume weighted average price line study and its middle upper and lower bands. For example, 3.236 is 1.618 (above) + 1.618. Some traders prefer 2.000 or 1.500 here. StdDev Multiplier 3 [defaults to: 4.854] - Set desired standard deviation distance between the volume weighted average price line study and its furthest upper and lower bands. For example, 4.854 is 1.618 (above) + 3.236 (above). Some traders prefer 3.000 or 2.000 here. VWAP Color [defaults to: Aqua] - Set desired VWAP line study color. This color automatically sets the color of the start time separators as well. SD1 Color [defaults to: White] - Set desired color of nearest upper and lower standard deviation lines. SD2 Color [defaults to: White] - Set desired color of middle upper and lower standard deviation lines. SD3 Color [defaults to: White] - Set desired color of furthest upper and lower standard deviation lines. Just to clarify, popular standard deviation bands settings are: 1.618, 3.236, and 4.854; or 1.000, 2.000, and 3.000; or 1.250, 1.500, and 2.000. Examples of usage *: In a ranging (sideways) market, enter a trade at the extremes of the standard deviation bands (SD3) and exit when price returns to the VWAP line study. Trade between SD1Pos and SD1 Neg, alternately buying and selling from one standard deviation line to the other. In a trending (rising or falling) market, enter a buy when a price bar opens above the VWAP line study, and exit at the nearest standard deviation band above (SD1Pos). Optionally, repeat the same trade but substitute SD1Pos for the VWAP, and SD2Pos for SD1. Reverse for sell; or Trade all lines (VWAP, SD1Pos, SD2Pos, and SD3Pos) in the same way. Again, reverse for sell. Indicator lines (indicator buffers) can be called with iCustom in Expert Advisors created by Expert Advisor builder software or custom coded Expert Advisors: No empty values; and No repainting.
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