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FXTechstrategy Team

Technical Outlook, Strategies & Commentaries On The Major Currencies

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EURGBP- Corrective Recovery Remains Intact.

 

EURGBP- Despite the cross’s price hesitation on Thursday, it continues to maintain its corrective recovery outlook triggered off the 0.6950 low on August 05 2015. On the upside, resistance lies at the 0.7200 level where a violation if seen will turn risk towards the 0.7250 level. Further out, the 0.7300 level comes in as the next upside target followed by the 0.7350 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. Conversely, support lies at the 0.7100 level where a violation will turn focus to the 0.7050 level. A break below here will expose the 0.7000 level. Further down, support comes in at the 0.6950 level. All in all, the cross is biased to the upside on further corrective recovery.

 

EURGBPDaily.png

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EURJPY: Remains On The Offensive With Eyes On 140.00 Level

 

EURJPY: The cross remains biased to the upside with eyes on its key resistance at the 140.00 level. This is coming on the back of recent bullish offensive following its corrective recovery triggered off the 133.29 level. Resistance lies at the 139.50 level followed by the 139.50 level where a break if seen will threaten further upside towards the 140.00. Further out, resistance resides at the 140.50 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support comes in at the 138.00 level where a break will aim at the 137.50 level. A turn below here will target the 137.00 level with a breach turning focus to the 136.50 level. All in all, the cross now faces upside risk on recovery.

 

EURJPYDaily.png

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GBPJPY: Bullish, Price Momentum Builds Up On 195.83 Level

 

GBPJPY: Having GBPJPY closed higher the past week, risk of further bullishness remains on the cards. This if seen will allow the cross to target the 195.83 level, representing its year-to-date high. Further out, resistance lies at the 197.00 level followed by the 198.00 level where a break will aim at the 199.00 level. A cut through here will aim at the 200.00 level with a break through here opening the door for more strength towards the 198.50 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, support comes in at the 193.50 level where a violation will aim at the 193.00 level. A break below here will target the 192.00 level followed by the 191.00 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the upside in the medium term.

 

GBPJPYWeekly.png

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EURCHF: Hesitates, Corrective Threat Develops

 

EURCHF: The cross may be biased to the upside in the medium term but its price failure taking back more than half of its gains the past week could trigger a full blown correction. Corrective signs are already seen on the daily chart. Support lies at the 1.0800 level where a break will aim at the 1.0750 level and then the 1.0700 level. A break below here will turn attention to the 1.0650 level. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1.0900 level where a break will aim at the 1.0950 level. A break of here will have to occur to create scope for a run at the 1.1000 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.1050 level. All in all, EURCHF remains biased to the upside in the medium term but caution.

 

EURCHFWeekly.png

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EURUSD: Retains Recovery Tone, Targets More Strength

 

EURUSD: With EUR seeing closing higher the past week, it now faces the risk of following through higher in the new week. Note that we may see a slight pullback in the new week. Support lies at the 1.1050 level where a violation will aim at the 1.1000 level. A break of here will aim at the 1.0950 level with a turn below that level targeting the 1.0900 level. Resistance is seen at 1.1150 level with a cut through here opening the door for more downside towards the 1.1200 level. Further up, resistance lies at the 1.1250 level where a break will expose the 1.1300 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the upside on correction.

 

EURUSDWeekly3.png

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GOLD: Looks To Build On Corrective Recovery

 

GOLD: Having closed higher the past week, further bullishness is likely though hesitating on Friday.However, beware of a mild price pullback. Support comes in at the 1,110.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,200.00 level. A cut through here will open the door for move lower towards the 1,080.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure towards the 1,060.00 level. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1,235.08 level where a break will aim at the 1,250.000 followed by the 1,270.00 level. A violation of here will turn attention to the 1,290.00 level. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the upside on corrective recovery.

 

XAUUSDWeekly1.png

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USDJPY: Having capped its strength at the 1.2506 level to close marginally higher the past week, further corrective weakness is envisaged. On the upside, resistance resides at the 124.50 level with a turn above here aiming at the 125.00 level. A break will target the 125.50 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 126.00 level where a violation will aim at the 126.50 level. On the downside, support comes in at the 124.00 level where a break will target the 123.50 level. Below here if seen will aim at the 123.00 level followed by the 122.50 level. On the whole, USDJPY remains exposed to the upside but faces corrective weakness.

 

USDJPYWeekly.png

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GBPUSD: Loses Upside Momentum, Weakens

 

GBPUSD: Having GBP reversed its Friday gains during Monday trading session, the risk is more weakness to occur. While holding below its cluster of resistance at the 1.5689/77 zone, further decline is likely towards the 1.5550 level where a break if seen will aim at the 1.5500 level. A turn below here will shift attention to the 1.5450 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.5400 level. Its daily RSI has turned lower suggesting further weakness. Conversely, resistance resides at the 15650 level followed by the 1.5700 level. A turn above here will open the door for a run at the 15750 level. On the whole, GBP faces the risk of a move lower on correction.

 

GBPUSDDaily3.png

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EURGBP: Declines, Extends Downside Pressure

 

EURGBP: With the cross extending its weakness on Tuesday, risk of further downside pressure is likely. This development leaves support standing at the 0.7050 level where a violation will turn focus to the 0.7000 level. A break below here will expose the 0.6950 level. Further down, support comes in at the 0.6900 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. On the upside, resistance lies at the 0.7100 level where a violation if seen will turn risk towards the 0.7150 level. Further out, the 0.7200 level comes in as the next upside target followed by the 0.7250 level. All in all, the cross is biased to the downside in the short term.

 

EURGBPDaily1.png

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CRUDE OIL: Turns Higher, Looks To Recover Further

 

CRUDE OIL: The commodity has put in a temporary bottom leaving risk of a move higher on the cards. Resistance is located at the 43.00 level where a break will expose the 44.00 level. A break below here will aim at the 45.00 level and then the 46.00 level. Above here if seen will open the door for a run at the 47.00 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, support resides at the 42.00 level where a break will expose the 41.00 level followed by the 40.00 level. A cut through here will aim at the 39.00 level. All in all, Crude Oil remains biased to the downside medium term.

 

WTIDaily3.png

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EURJPY: Set To Weaken Further Towards 136.50

 

EURJPY: The cross remains weak and vulnerable to the downside with eyes on its support located at the 136.50 level. On the downside, support comes in at the 136.50 level where a break will aim at the 136.00 level. A turn below here will target the 135.50 level with a breach turning spotlight on the 135.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Resistance lies at the 138.00 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 138.50 level where a break if seen will threaten further upside towards the 139.00. Below here will open the door for a move higher towards the 139.50 level. All in all, the cross now faces downside pressure on pullback

 

EURJPYDaily1.png

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USDCAD: Rallies, Sets Up To Recapture 1.3212 Level

 

USDCAD: With the pair turning higher on price reversal during Wednesday trading session, risk of further move towards the 1.3212 level is developing. Resistance resides at the 1.3212 level followed by the 1.3250 level. Further out, the 1.3300 level comes in as the next resistance with a break turning attention to the 1.3350 level. Above here if seen will expose the 1.3400 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support lies at the 1.3100 level followed by the 1.3050 level. Further down, support resides at the 1.3000 level and then the 1.2950 level. All in all, USDCAD remains biased to the upside in the medium term.

 

USDCADDaily3.png

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GOLD: Rallies, Resumes Short Term Uptrend

 

GOLD: The commodity rallied strongly on Wednesday leaving risk of further upside on the cards. This price development leaves bulls on the offensive towards the 1,147.00/1,150.00 area. Support comes in at the 1,126.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,110.00 level. A cut through here will open the door for move lower towards the 1,100.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure towards the 1,080.00 level. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1,250.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,270.000 followed by the 1,280.00 level. A violation of here will turn attention to the 1,290.00 level. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the upside on corrective recovery.

 

XAUUSDDaily1.png

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EURUSD: Builds Up On Recovery, Eyes 1.1213 Level

 

EURUSD: With EUR turning higher to reverse part of its four-day losses on Wednesday, further push higher is likely. It was seen at the time of this analysis heading further higher with eyes on the 1.1213 level. Support lies at the 1.1100 level where a violation will aim at the 1.1050 level. A break of here will aim at the 1.1000 level with a turn below that level targeting the 1.0950 level. Conversely, resistance is seen at 1.1213 level with a cut through here opening the door for more downside towards the 1.1250 level. Further up, resistance lies at the 1.1300 level where a break will expose the 1.1250 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further upside pressure. All in all, EUR remains biased to the upside nearer term.

 

EURUSDDaily1.png

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GBPJPY: Bear Pressure Builds Up On The 191.93 Level

 

 

GBPJPY: GBPJPY may be consolidating within its broader range but looks to weaken further towards the 191.93 zone. On the downside, support comes in at the 192.00 level where a violation will aim at the 191.00 level. A break below here will target the 190.00 level followed by the 189.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, resistance lies at the 194.00 level followed by the 195.00 level where a break will aim at the 196.00 level. A cut through here will aim at the 197.00 level. Further out, the 198.50 level comes in as the next resistance All in all, the cross remains biased to the downside nearer term

 

 

GBPJPYDaily1.png

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EURGBP: Sees Price Extension With Eyes On 0.7222 Level

 

EURGBP: With the cross strengthening further on Friday following its Thursday gain, further bullishness is likely towards its key resistance seen at the 0.7222 level. On the upside, resistance lies at the 0.7250 level where a violation if seen will turn risk towards the 0.7300 level. Further out, the 0.7350 level comes in as the next upside target followed by the 0.7400 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. Conversely, support lies at the 0.7150 level where a violation will turn focus to the 0.7100 level. A break below here will expose the 0.7050 level. Further down, support comes in at the 0.700 level. All in all, the cross is biased to the upside on further corrective recovery.

 

EURGBPDaily2.png

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EURJPY: Bullish, Maintains Short Term Uptrend

 

 

EURJPY: The cross extended its recovery on Thursday leaving risk of additional strength on the cards. While the 137.05 level remains as support, its short term uptrend remains intact. Resistance lies at the 139.50 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 140.00 level where a break if seen will threaten further upside towards the 140.50. Further out, resistance resides at the 141.00 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, support comes in at the 138.00 level where a break will aim at the 137.50 level. A turn below here will target the 137.00 level with a breach turning focus to the 136.50 level. All in all, the cross now faces upside risk on recovery.

 

EURJPYDaily3.png

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USDCHF: Tumbles On Price Sell-Off

 

USDCHF: With USDCHF selling off strongly the past week, a follow-through lower is envisaged in the new week. On the downside, support comes in at the 0.9400 level. A turn below here will open the door for more weakness to occur towards the 0.9350 level and then the 0.9300 level. A cut through here will open the door for more weakness towards the 0.9250 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. Resistance resides at the 0.9500 level with a breach targeting the 0.9550 level. A respite may occur here and turn the pair lower but if taken out, expect a push higher towards the 0.9750 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside.

 

USDCHFWeekly2.png

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EURUSD: Presses Higher, Pressure Turns On The 1.4466 Level

 

EURUSD: With EUR seeing a strong rally the past week, we envisage more strength in the new. However, note that a consolidation with a pullback may occur. Support lies at the 1.1300 level where a violation will aim at the 1.1000 level. A break of here will aim at the 1.1250 level with a turn below that level targeting the 1.1200 level. Conversely, resistance is seen at 1.1450 level with a cut through here opening the door for more downside towards the 1.1500 level. Further up, resistance lies at the 1.1550 level where a break will expose the 1.1600 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the upside on correction.

 

EURUSDWeekly4.png

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EURUSD: With EUR seeing a strong rally the past week, we envisage more strength in the new. However, note that a consolidation with a pullback may occur. Support lies at the 1.1300 level where a violation will aim at the 1.1000 level. A break of here will aim at the 1.1250 level with a turn below that level targeting the 1.1200 level. Conversely, resistance is seen at 1.1450 level with a cut through here opening the door for more downside towards the 1.1500 level. Further up, resistance lies at the 1.1550 level where a break will expose the 1.1600 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the upside on correction.

 

EURUSDWeekly4.png

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GOLD: Sees Further Bullishness With Eyes On The 1,168/70 Zone

 

GOLD: The commodity’s outlook continues to point higher leaving risk of more gains in the new week. However, we may see GOLD pulling back to correct some of its recent gain. On the upside, resistance resides at the 1,170.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,190.000 followed by the 1,200.00 level. A violation of here will turn attention to the 1,220.00 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the contrary, support comes in at the 1,150.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,130.00 level. A cut through here will open the door for move lower towards the 1,120.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure towards the 1,100.00 level. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the upside on corrective recovery.

 

XAUUSDWeekly2.png

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CRUDE OIL: Susceptible, Looks ForAdditional Weakness.

 

CRUDE OIL: The commodity weakened further the past week leaving risk of more decline on the cards. Resistance is located at the 41.00 level where a break will expose the 42.00 level. A break below here will aim at the 43.00 level and then the 44.00 level. Above here if seen will open the door for a run at the 45.00 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. On the downside, support resides at the 39.00 level where a break will expose the 38.00 level followed by the 37.00 level. A cut through here will aim at the 36.00 level. All in all, Crude Oil remains biased to the downside medium term.

 

WTIWeekly.png

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GBPUSD: Reinforces Its Bullish Offensive

 

GBPUSD: GBP continues to face upside pressure following its corrective recovery bullish offensive. With the pair trading above its cluster of resistance at the 1.5689/77 zone, more strength is envisaged. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.5800 level followed by the 1.5800 level. A turn above here will open the door for a run at the 15850 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support lies at the 1.5600 level where a break if seen will aim at the 1.5550 level. A break of here will turn attention to the 1.5500 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.5450 level. On the whole, GBP faces the risk of a recovery higher on correction.

 

GBPUSDDaily4.png

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USDCAD: Resumes Medium Term Uptrend

 

USDCAD: Having followed through higher on the back of its Friday gains, further bullishness is envisaged. In such a case, USDCAD will aim at the 1.3350 level where a break will target the 1.3400 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.3450 level where a turn lower may occur. But if further recovery is triggered resistance comes in at the 1.3500 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, support lies at the 1.3200 level followed by the 1.3150 level. Further down, support resides at the 1.3100 level and then the 1.3050 level. All in all, USDCAD remains biased to the upside medium term.

 

USDCADDaily4.png

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GBPJPY Recovers, Turns Higher On Price Reversal

 

GBPJPY: GBPJPY may have turned sharply lower on Monday but it now sees a reversal of that weakness with eyes on the 192.25 level. This present recovery is driven by its failure to follow through lower on the back of its Monday losses. On the downside, support comes in at the 189.00 level where a violation will aim at the 188.00 level. A break below here will target the 187.00 level followed by the 186.00 level. On the upside, resistance lies at the 190.00 level followed by the 191.00 level where a break will aim at the 192.00 level. A cut through here will aim at the 193.00 level. Further out, the 194.00 level comes in as the next resistance All in all, the cross remains biased to the downside but faces a recovery higher.

 

GBPJPYDaily2.png

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    • A custom Semi-Log Scale Oscillator indicator is now available for MT5 on Metaquotes website and directly in the MT5 platform. https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/114705 This indicator is an anchored semi-logarithmic scale oscillator. A logarithmic scale is widely used by professional data scientists to more accurately map information collected throughout a timeframe, in the same way that MT5 maps out price data. In fact, the underlying logic of this indicator was freely obtained from an overseas biotech scientist. A log-log chart displays logarithmic values on both the x (horizontal) and y (vertical) axes, which generally produces a straight line that points up, down, or remains flat. A straight line is not very useful for trading markets because such a straight line is so smoothed that actual price values that appear over time are very far away from the line study. In contrast, a semi-log chart is only logged on one axis--generally, the y axis. Such a semi-log chart is well suited for trading markets because the time (x) axis is preserved in its original form while at the same time, providing a graduated y scale where the distance between price increments progressively increases as price rises higher (and decreases as price falls lower). This allows us to establish a zero level for a low price, clearly view trends on straighter angles, and clearly observe amplified price spikes at high prices. Accordingly, this indicator employs a semi-log scale on the y axis only. This indicator is anchored because it allows you to specify a start time for calculation of price bars. The settings are as follows: Year.Month.Day Hour:Minute - defaults to 1970.01.01 00:01 - if left on default setting, the indicator automatically detects the earliest price bar in chart history--even where the year 1970 is not in history. Notes appear in the indicator settings window. Size of first pip step to log - defaults to 135 - this default is suitable for higher timeframes such a MN1 (monthly), while 5 is suitable for lower timeframes such as M1 (minute). Ultimately, optimal settings will depend on the timeframe that you attach the indicator to, the level of price volatility within that timeframe, and start time that you choose. Remember... The semi-log formula calculates from low to high, so your start time must always be a major swing low. Again, notes appear in the indicator settings window. The standard (built-in) MT5 indicators that can be applied to the "Previous indicator's data" can be applied to this indicator. Indicator lines (indicator buffers) can be called with iCustom in Expert Advisors created by Expert Advisor builder software or custom coded Expert Advisors. The log scale Open, High, Low, and Close prices are buffers: No empty values; and No repainting.
    • A custom Gann Candles indicator is now available for MT5 on the Metaquotes website and directly in the MT5 platform. https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/126398 This Gann Candles indicator incorporates a series of W.D. Gann's strategies into a single trading indicator. Gann was a legendary trader who lived from 1878 to 1955. He started out as a cotton farmer and started trading at age 24 in 1902. His strategies included geometry, astronomy, astrology, times cycles, and ancient math. Although Gann wrote several books, none of them contain all of his strategies so it takes years of studying to learn them. He was also a devout scholar of the Bible and the ancient Greek and Egyptian cultures, and he was a 33rd degree Freemason of the Scottish Rite. In an effort to simplify what I believe are the best of Gann's strategies, I reduced them into one indicator that simply colors your preexisting price bars when those strategies are in-sync versus out-of-sync. This greatly reduces potential chart clutter. Also, I reduced the number of input settings down to only two: FastFilter, and SlowFilter Both FastFilter and SlowFilter must be set to 5 or more, as noted in the Inputs tab upon attaching the indicator to your chart. Gann Candles works on regular time-based charts (M5, M15, M20, etc.) and custom charts (Renko, range bars, etc.). The indicator does not repaint. When using the default settings, blue candles form bullish price patterns, gray candles form flat (sideways) price patterns, and white candles form bearish price patterns. The simplest way to trade Gann Candles is to buy at the close of a blue candle and exit at the close of a gray candle, and then sell at the close of a white candle and exit at the close of a gray candle.
    • A custom Anchored VWAP with Standard Deviation Bands indicator for MT5 is now available on the Metaquotes website and directly through the MT5 platform. https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/99389 The volume weighted average price indicator is a line study indicator that shows in the main chart window of MT5. The indicator monitors the typical price and then trading volume used to automatically push the indicator line toward heavily traded prices. These prices are where the most contracts (or lots) have been traded. Then those weighted prices are averaged over a look back period, and the indicator shows the line study at those pushed prices. The indicator in this post allows the trader to set the daily start time of that look back period. This indicator automatically shows 5 daily look back periods: the currently forming period, and the 4 previous days based on that same start time. For this reason, this indicator is intended for intraday trading only. The indicator automatically shows vertical daily start time separator lines for those days as well. Both typical prices and volumes are accumulated throughout the day, and processed throughout the day. Important update: v102 of this indicator allows you to anchor the start of the VWAP and bands to the most recent major high or low, even when that high or low appears in your chart several days ago. This is how institutional traders and liquidity providers often trade markets with the VWAP. This indicator also shows 6 standard deviation bands, similarly to the way that a Bollinger Bands indicator shows such bands. The trader is able to set 3 individual standard deviation multiplier values above the volume weighted average price line study, and 3 individual standard deviation multiplier values below the volume weighted average price line study. Higher multiplier values will generate rapidly expanding standard deviation bands because again, the indicator is cumulative. The following indicator parameters can be changed by the trader in the indicator Inputs tab: Volume Type [defaults to: Real volume] - Set to Tick volume for over-the-counter markets such as most forex markets. Real volume is an additional setting for centralized markets such as the United States Chicago Mercantile Exchange. VWAP Start Hour [defaults to: 07] - Set according to broker's or broker-dealer's MT5 server time in 24 hour format. For example, in the New York, United States time zone, 07 is approximately the London, United Kingdom business open hour. VWAP Start Minute [defaults to: 00] - Set according to broker's or broker-dealer's MT5 server time in 24 hour format. For example, 00 is on the hour with no delay of minutes within that hour. StdDev Multiplier 1 [defaults to: 1.618] - Set desired standard deviation distance between the volume weighted average price line study and its nearest upper and lower bands. For example, 1.618 is a basic Fibonacci ratio. Some traders prefer 1.000 or 1.250 here. StdDev Multiplier 2 [defaults to: 3.236] - Set desired standard deviation distance between the volume weighted average price line study and its middle upper and lower bands. For example, 3.236 is 1.618 (above) + 1.618. Some traders prefer 2.000 or 1.500 here. StdDev Multiplier 3 [defaults to: 4.854] - Set desired standard deviation distance between the volume weighted average price line study and its furthest upper and lower bands. For example, 4.854 is 1.618 (above) + 3.236 (above). Some traders prefer 3.000 or 2.000 here. VWAP Color [defaults to: Aqua] - Set desired VWAP line study color. This color automatically sets the color of the start time separators as well. SD1 Color [defaults to: White] - Set desired color of nearest upper and lower standard deviation lines. SD2 Color [defaults to: White] - Set desired color of middle upper and lower standard deviation lines. SD3 Color [defaults to: White] - Set desired color of furthest upper and lower standard deviation lines. Just to clarify, popular standard deviation bands settings are: 1.618, 3.236, and 4.854; or 1.000, 2.000, and 3.000; or 1.250, 1.500, and 2.000. Examples of usage *: In a ranging (sideways) market, enter a trade at the extremes of the standard deviation bands (SD3) and exit when price returns to the VWAP line study. Trade between SD1Pos and SD1 Neg, alternately buying and selling from one standard deviation line to the other. In a trending (rising or falling) market, enter a buy when a price bar opens above the VWAP line study, and exit at the nearest standard deviation band above (SD1Pos). Optionally, repeat the same trade but substitute SD1Pos for the VWAP, and SD2Pos for SD1. Reverse for sell; or Trade all lines (VWAP, SD1Pos, SD2Pos, and SD3Pos) in the same way. Again, reverse for sell. Indicator lines (indicator buffers) can be called with iCustom in Expert Advisors created by Expert Advisor builder software or custom coded Expert Advisors: No empty values; and No repainting.
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