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FXTechstrategy Team

Technical Outlook, Strategies & Commentaries On The Major Currencies

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GOLD: Looks To Trigger Correction

 

GOLD: With a marginal close seen the past week, corrective pullback is envisaged. Resistance resides at the 1,315 level where a break will aim at the 1,330.00 level. A break of here will turn attention to the 1,350.00 level followed by the 1,380.00 level. A cut through here will extend gains towards the 1,400.00 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,300.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,280.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside towards the 1,250.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,230.00 level. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the upside on correction.

 

XAUUSDWeekly1.png

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GBPJPY: Halts Weakness, Triggers Correction

 

GBPJPY: With the cross reversing its early intraday losses to strengthen on Monday, it faces further corrective recovery threats in the days ahead. On the downside, support comes in at the 177.00 level where a violation will aim at the 176.00 level. A break below here will target the 175.00 level followed by the 174.00 level. Further down, support lies at the 173.00 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the upside, resistance lies at the 179.00 level followed by the 179.00 level where a break will aim at the 180.00 level. A cut through here will aim at the 181.00 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the downside short term.

 

GBPJPYDaily2.png

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AUDUSD: Maintains Corrective Bias

 

AUDUSD: With AUDUSD turning higher on Monday and following through higher on Tuesday, it now faces the risk of further upside in the days ahead. On the downside, support resides at the 0.7850 level where a breach will aim at the 0.7800 level. Below that level will set the stage for a run at the 0.7750 level with a cut through targeting further downside towards the 0.7700 level. On the upside, resistance lies at the 0.7950 level. A cut through here will turn attention to the 0.8000 level and then the 0.8050 level where a violation will set the stage for a retarget of the 0.8100 level. On the whole, AUDUSD continues to retain its broader downtrend pressure.

 

AUDUSDDaily1.png

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USDCHF: Halts Recovery, Vulnerable

 

USDCHF: The pair continues to hold on to its upside pressure but now faces price hesitation. On the downside, support lies at the 0.8950 level with a break targeting the 1.8900 level and then the 0.8850 level. Further down, support comes in at the 0.9000 level. On the upside, resistance resides at the 0.9050 level where a break will aim at the 0.9100 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9150 level. A breather may occur here and turn the pair lower but if taken out, expect a push towards the 0.9200 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside short term.

 

USDCHFDaily1.png

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USDJPY: Faces Price Consolidation

 

USDJPY: With USDJPY still facing consolidation price action, a directional move is now on hold. On the downside, support comes in at the 117.00 level where a break will target the 116.50 level. Below here if seen will aim at the 116.00 level followed by the 115.00 and then the 114.00. On the upside, resistance resides at the 119.00 level followed by the 120.00 level where a break will target the 121.00 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 122.00 level where a violation will aim at the 123.00 level. On the whole, USDJPY remains exposed to the upside in the medium term

 

USDJPYDaily2.png

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GOLD: Declines On Price Sell Off

 

GOLD: With GOLD selling off sharply during Thursday trading session, further downside pressure is expected in the days ahead. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,250.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,230.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside towards the 1,200.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,180.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1,272.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,300.00 level. A break of here will turn attention to the 1,330.00 level followed by the 1,350.00 level. A cut through here will extend gains towards the 1,380.00 level. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the upside on correction.

 

XAUUSDDaily2.png

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GBPUSD: Declines Further, Remains Vulnerable

 

GBPUSD: With GBP extending its weakness on Thursday, further downside pressure is likely. On the downside, support lies at the 1.4950 level where a break if seen will aim at the 1.4900 level. A break of here will turn attention to the 1.4850 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.4800 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1.5150 level with a break aiming at the 1.5200 level. A violation will aim at the 1.5250 level and possibly higher towards the 1.5300 level. On the whole, GBP continues to retain its broader downside bias medium term.

 

GBPUSDDaily2.png

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USDCHF: Remains On The Offensive

 

USDCHF: With a second week of strength seeing further bullishness the past week, additional bull pressure is envisaged. However, watch out for a pullback following its two-week run to the upside. On the upside, resistance resides at the 0.9250 level where a break will aim at the 0.9300 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9350 level. A breather may occur here and turn the pair lower but if that level is taken out, expect a push further higher towards the 0.9400 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support lies at the 0.9150 level with a break targeting the 0.9100 level and then the 0.0950 level. Further down, support is located at the 0.9000 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside medium term despite its recovery.

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EURUSD: Targets Higher Prices On Correction

 

EURUSD: With EUR triggering a correction to close higher the past week, further bullishness is now envisaged in the new week. However, beware of recovery failure and a turn lower. Support is seen at 1.1200 level with a cut through here opening the door for more downside towards the 1.1150 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.1100 level where a break will expose the 1.1050 level. On the upside, resistance lies at the 1.1350 level where a violation will aim at the 1.1300 level where a break will aim at the 1.1400 level, its psycho level followed by the 1.1450 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.1500 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside in the medium term though facing a recovery higher nearer term.

 

EURUSDWeekly1.png

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CRUDE OIL: Looks To Build On Strength.

 

CRUDE OIL: Having Crude Oil triggered a corrective recovery the past week, it faces further recovery risk sin the new week. Support lies at the 44.00 level where a break will expose the 43.00 level. A break will aim at the 42.00 level and then the 41.00 level. A turn below here will open the door for a run at the 40.00 level. On the upside, resistance resides at the 47.55 level where a break will expose the 48.00 level followed by the 49.00 level where a break will aim at the 50.00 level and then the 51.00 level. All in all, Crude Oil remains broadly biased to the downside medium term.

 

CLWeekly.png

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AUDUSD: Faces Corrective Recovery Threats

 

AUDUSD: With AUDUSD halting its weakness on Friday, the past week (see daily chart) and triggering a recovery during Monday trading session, further recovery higher is now envisaged in the days ahead. On the downside, support resides at the 0.7700 level where a breach will aim at the 0.7650 level. Below that level will set the stage for a run at the 0.7600 level with a cut through targeting further downside towards the 0.7550 level. On the upside, resistance lies at the 0.7850 level. A cut through here will turn attention to the 0.7900 level and then the 0.7950 level where a violation will set the stage for a retarget of the 0.8000 level. On the whole, AUDUSD continues to retain its broader downtrend pressure but faces an immediate correction.

 

AUDUSDDaily.png

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GOLD: Risk Continues To Point Higher

 

GOLD: With GOLD continuing to maintain its bullish risk, more strength is envisaged in the new week. Despite its marginal loss the past week, our upside view on the commodity remains intact. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,260.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,240.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside towards the 1,220.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,200.00 level. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1,300.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,320.00 level. A break of here will turn attention to the 1,350.00 level followed by the 1,380.00 level. A cut through here will extend gains towards the 1,400.00 level. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the upside on correction.

 

XAUUSDDaily.png

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USDJPY: Recovers, Eyes More Strength

 

USDJPY: With USDJPY bouncing off lower level prices to strengthen on Tuesday, it now faces further upside pressure. However, the pair will have to break and hold above the 118.86 level to prevent a return to the downside. On the downside, support comes in at the 117.00 level where a break will target the 116.50 level. Below here if seen will aim at the 116.00 level followed by the 115.00 and then the 114.00. On the upside, resistance resides at the 119.00 level followed by the 120.00 level where a break will target the 121.00 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 122.00 level where a violation will aim at the 123.00 level. On the whole, USDJPY remains exposed to the upside in the medium term

 

USDJPYproH4.png

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GBPUSD: Bullish, Eyes Further Upside.

 

GBPUSD: Having maintained its bullish offensive, GBP faces the risk of further strength currently underway. On the upside, resistance resides at the 1.5300 level with a break aiming at the 1.5350 level. A violation will aim at the 1.5400 level and possibly higher towards the 1.5450 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Conversely, support lies at the 1.5150 level where a break if seen will aim at the 1.5100 level. A break of here will turn attention to the 1.5050 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.5000 level. On the whole, GBP continues to retain its recovery threats.

 

GBPUSDDaily.png

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CRUDE OIL: Bearish, Looks To Weaken Further

 

CRUDE OIL: Having turned lower on Wednesday following its Tuesday price failure, further downside is likely. On the upside, resistance resides at the 52.00 level where a break will expose the 53.00 level followed by the 54.00 level where a break will aim at the 55.00 level and then the 56.00 level. Conversely, support lies at the 50.00 level where a break will expose the 49.00 level. A break will aim at the 48.00 level and then the 47.00 level. A turn below here will open the door for a run at the 46.00 level. All in all, Crude Oil remains broadly biased to the downside medium term.

 

WTIDaily.png

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AUDUSD: Faces Recovery Risk

 

AUDUSD: With AUDUSD threatening further corrective recovery, bull pressure is envisaged. On the downside, support resides at the 0.7750 level where a breach will aim at the 0.7700 level. Below that level will set the stage for a run at the 0.7650 level with a cut through targeting further downside towards the 0.7600 level. On the upside, resistance lies at the 0.7850 level. A cut through here will turn attention to the 0.7900 level and then the 0.7950 level where a violation will set the stage for a retarget of the 0.8000 level. On the whole, AUDUSD continues to retain its broader downtrend pressure but faces a correction.

 

AUDUSDDaily1.png

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EURUSD: Builds Up Upside Momentum

 

EURUSD: With EUR reversing its Wednesday losses on Thursday, further upside pressure is envisaged. Support is seen at 1.1400 level with a cut through here opening the door for more downside towards the 1.1350 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.1300 level where a break will expose the 1.1250 level. Its daily RSI has turned higher supporting this view. On the upside, resistance lies at the 1.1500 level where a violation will aim at the 1.1550 level where a break will aim at the 1.1600 level, its psycho level followed by the 1.1650 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.1700 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside in the medium term but faces recovery threat.

 

EURUSDDaily.png

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USDCHF: Closes Flat, Faces Corrective Pullback Risk

 

USDCHF: With a flat price action trading occurring the past week, risk of an impending corrective pullback continues to loom. On the downside, support lies at the 0.9200 level with a break targeting the 0.9150 level and then the 0.9100 level. Further down, support comes in at the 0.9050 level. On the upside, resistance resides at the 0.9344 level where a break will aim at the 0.9400 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9450 level. A breather may occur here and turn the pair lower but if taken out, expect a push towards the 0.9500 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside medium term.

 

USDCHFWeekly.png

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EURUSD: Faces Downside Pressure

 

EURUSD: With EUR closing marginally lower on a price rejection candle formation, further downside pressure is envisaged. Support is seen at 1.1250 level with a cut through here opening the door for more downside towards the 1.1200 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.1150 level where a break will expose the 1.1110 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, resistance lies at the 1.1350 level where a violation will aim at the 1.1300 level where a break will aim at the 1.1400 level, its psycho level followed by the 1.1450 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.1500 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside in the medium term though facing a recovery higher nearer term.

 

EURUSDWeekly.png

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GOLD: Remains Vulnerable With Caution

 

GOLD: With a second week of downside pressure occurring the past week, further downside pressure is likely. Except it returns above the 1,285/1,300 levels, downside threat remains. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,200.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,180.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside towards the 1,160.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,140.00 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1,25se40.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,320.00 level. A break of here will turn attention to the 1,350.00 level followed by the 1,380.00 level. A cut through here will extend gains towards the 1,400.00 level. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the downside on price failure

 

XAUUSDWeekly.png

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GBPUSD: Weak And Vulnerable

 

GBPUSD: With GBP now seen following through on the back of its Friday weakness, further decline is envisaged. This development leaves it targeting further downside but with caution. On the downside, support lies at the 1.5150 level where a break if seen will aim at the 1.5100 level. A break of here will turn attention to the 1.5050 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.5000 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1.5300 level with a break aiming at the 1.5350 level. A violation will aim at the 1.5400 level and possibly higher towards the 1.5450 level. On the whole, GBP continues to retain its broader downside bias medium term but faces corrective risk

 

GBPUSDDDaily.png

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AUDUSD: Develops Recovery Threats

 

AUDUSD: AUDUSD continues to trace out a bottom as a platform for its impending correction. On the downside, support resides at the 0.7750 level where a breach will aim at the 0.7700 level. Below that level will set the stage for a run at the 0.7650 level with a cut through targeting further downside towards the 0.7600 level. On the upside, resistance lies at the 0.7850 level. A cut through here will turn attention to the 0.7900 level and then the 0.7950 level where a violation will set the stage for a retarget of the 0.8000 level. On the whole, AUDUSD continues to retain its broader downtrend pressure but faces a corrective recovery threats in the nearer term

 

AUDUSDDaily2.png

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USDCAD: Vulnerable On Correction

 

USDCAD: Despite its Friday strength, its correction triggered off the 1.2798 level has not ended. On the downside, support lies at the 1.2400 level followed by the 1.2350 level. Further out, support resides at the 1.2300 level and then the 1.2250 level. On the upside, resistance is seen at the 1.2500 level followed by the 1.2550 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.2600 level where a turn lower may occur. But if further recovery is triggered resistance comes in at the 1.2650 level. All in all, USDCAD continues to face bullish offensive medium term though correcting

 

USDCADDaily.png

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EURUSD: Vulnerable On Price Hesitation.

 

EURUSD: Although EUR is facing price hesitation, it still faces downside threats. outlook on EUR remains biased to the downside though hesitating. Support is seen at 1.1250 level with a cut through here opening the door for more downside towards the 1.1200 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.1150 level where a break will expose the 1.1100 level. Its daily RSI has turned lower supporting this view. On the upside, resistance lies at the 1.1400 level where a violation will aim at the 1.1450 level where a break will aim at the 1.1500 level, its psycho level followed by the 1.1550 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.1600 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside in the medium term.

 

EURUSDDaily1.png

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CRUDE OIL: Vulnerable, Weakens Further

 

CRUDE OIL: With price extension seen on Wednesday, further downside pressure is likely. On the downside, support lies at the 48.00 level where a break will expose the 47.00 level. A break will aim at the 46.00 level and then the 45.00 level. A turn below here will open the door for a run at the 44.00 level. On the upside, resistance resides at the 50.00 level where a break will expose the 51.00 level followed by the 52.00 level where a break will aim at the 53.00 level and then the 54.00 level. All in all, Crude Oil remains broadly biased to the downside medium term.

 

WTIDaily1.png

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    • A custom Semi-Log Scale Oscillator indicator is now available for MT5 on Metaquotes website and directly in the MT5 platform. https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/114705 This indicator is an anchored semi-logarithmic scale oscillator. A logarithmic scale is widely used by professional data scientists to more accurately map information collected throughout a timeframe, in the same way that MT5 maps out price data. In fact, the underlying logic of this indicator was freely obtained from an overseas biotech scientist. A log-log chart displays logarithmic values on both the x (horizontal) and y (vertical) axes, which generally produces a straight line that points up, down, or remains flat. A straight line is not very useful for trading markets because such a straight line is so smoothed that actual price values that appear over time are very far away from the line study. In contrast, a semi-log chart is only logged on one axis--generally, the y axis. Such a semi-log chart is well suited for trading markets because the time (x) axis is preserved in its original form while at the same time, providing a graduated y scale where the distance between price increments progressively increases as price rises higher (and decreases as price falls lower). This allows us to establish a zero level for a low price, clearly view trends on straighter angles, and clearly observe amplified price spikes at high prices. Accordingly, this indicator employs a semi-log scale on the y axis only. This indicator is anchored because it allows you to specify a start time for calculation of price bars. The settings are as follows: Year.Month.Day Hour:Minute - defaults to 1970.01.01 00:01 - if left on default setting, the indicator automatically detects the earliest price bar in chart history--even where the year 1970 is not in history. Notes appear in the indicator settings window. Size of first pip step to log - defaults to 135 - this default is suitable for higher timeframes such a MN1 (monthly), while 5 is suitable for lower timeframes such as M1 (minute). Ultimately, optimal settings will depend on the timeframe that you attach the indicator to, the level of price volatility within that timeframe, and start time that you choose. Remember... The semi-log formula calculates from low to high, so your start time must always be a major swing low. Again, notes appear in the indicator settings window. The standard (built-in) MT5 indicators that can be applied to the "Previous indicator's data" can be applied to this indicator. Indicator lines (indicator buffers) can be called with iCustom in Expert Advisors created by Expert Advisor builder software or custom coded Expert Advisors. The log scale Open, High, Low, and Close prices are buffers: No empty values; and No repainting.
    • A custom Gann Candles indicator is now available for MT5 on the Metaquotes website and directly in the MT5 platform. https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/126398 This Gann Candles indicator incorporates a series of W.D. Gann's strategies into a single trading indicator. Gann was a legendary trader who lived from 1878 to 1955. He started out as a cotton farmer and started trading at age 24 in 1902. His strategies included geometry, astronomy, astrology, times cycles, and ancient math. Although Gann wrote several books, none of them contain all of his strategies so it takes years of studying to learn them. He was also a devout scholar of the Bible and the ancient Greek and Egyptian cultures, and he was a 33rd degree Freemason of the Scottish Rite. In an effort to simplify what I believe are the best of Gann's strategies, I reduced them into one indicator that simply colors your preexisting price bars when those strategies are in-sync versus out-of-sync. This greatly reduces potential chart clutter. Also, I reduced the number of input settings down to only two: FastFilter, and SlowFilter Both FastFilter and SlowFilter must be set to 5 or more, as noted in the Inputs tab upon attaching the indicator to your chart. Gann Candles works on regular time-based charts (M5, M15, M20, etc.) and custom charts (Renko, range bars, etc.). The indicator does not repaint. When using the default settings, blue candles form bullish price patterns, gray candles form flat (sideways) price patterns, and white candles form bearish price patterns. The simplest way to trade Gann Candles is to buy at the close of a blue candle and exit at the close of a gray candle, and then sell at the close of a white candle and exit at the close of a gray candle.
    • A custom Anchored VWAP with Standard Deviation Bands indicator for MT5 is now available on the Metaquotes website and directly through the MT5 platform. https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/99389 The volume weighted average price indicator is a line study indicator that shows in the main chart window of MT5. The indicator monitors the typical price and then trading volume used to automatically push the indicator line toward heavily traded prices. These prices are where the most contracts (or lots) have been traded. Then those weighted prices are averaged over a look back period, and the indicator shows the line study at those pushed prices. The indicator in this post allows the trader to set the daily start time of that look back period. This indicator automatically shows 5 daily look back periods: the currently forming period, and the 4 previous days based on that same start time. For this reason, this indicator is intended for intraday trading only. The indicator automatically shows vertical daily start time separator lines for those days as well. Both typical prices and volumes are accumulated throughout the day, and processed throughout the day. Important update: v102 of this indicator allows you to anchor the start of the VWAP and bands to the most recent major high or low, even when that high or low appears in your chart several days ago. This is how institutional traders and liquidity providers often trade markets with the VWAP. This indicator also shows 6 standard deviation bands, similarly to the way that a Bollinger Bands indicator shows such bands. The trader is able to set 3 individual standard deviation multiplier values above the volume weighted average price line study, and 3 individual standard deviation multiplier values below the volume weighted average price line study. Higher multiplier values will generate rapidly expanding standard deviation bands because again, the indicator is cumulative. The following indicator parameters can be changed by the trader in the indicator Inputs tab: Volume Type [defaults to: Real volume] - Set to Tick volume for over-the-counter markets such as most forex markets. Real volume is an additional setting for centralized markets such as the United States Chicago Mercantile Exchange. VWAP Start Hour [defaults to: 07] - Set according to broker's or broker-dealer's MT5 server time in 24 hour format. For example, in the New York, United States time zone, 07 is approximately the London, United Kingdom business open hour. VWAP Start Minute [defaults to: 00] - Set according to broker's or broker-dealer's MT5 server time in 24 hour format. For example, 00 is on the hour with no delay of minutes within that hour. StdDev Multiplier 1 [defaults to: 1.618] - Set desired standard deviation distance between the volume weighted average price line study and its nearest upper and lower bands. For example, 1.618 is a basic Fibonacci ratio. Some traders prefer 1.000 or 1.250 here. StdDev Multiplier 2 [defaults to: 3.236] - Set desired standard deviation distance between the volume weighted average price line study and its middle upper and lower bands. For example, 3.236 is 1.618 (above) + 1.618. Some traders prefer 2.000 or 1.500 here. StdDev Multiplier 3 [defaults to: 4.854] - Set desired standard deviation distance between the volume weighted average price line study and its furthest upper and lower bands. For example, 4.854 is 1.618 (above) + 3.236 (above). Some traders prefer 3.000 or 2.000 here. VWAP Color [defaults to: Aqua] - Set desired VWAP line study color. This color automatically sets the color of the start time separators as well. SD1 Color [defaults to: White] - Set desired color of nearest upper and lower standard deviation lines. SD2 Color [defaults to: White] - Set desired color of middle upper and lower standard deviation lines. SD3 Color [defaults to: White] - Set desired color of furthest upper and lower standard deviation lines. Just to clarify, popular standard deviation bands settings are: 1.618, 3.236, and 4.854; or 1.000, 2.000, and 3.000; or 1.250, 1.500, and 2.000. Examples of usage *: In a ranging (sideways) market, enter a trade at the extremes of the standard deviation bands (SD3) and exit when price returns to the VWAP line study. Trade between SD1Pos and SD1 Neg, alternately buying and selling from one standard deviation line to the other. In a trending (rising or falling) market, enter a buy when a price bar opens above the VWAP line study, and exit at the nearest standard deviation band above (SD1Pos). Optionally, repeat the same trade but substitute SD1Pos for the VWAP, and SD2Pos for SD1. Reverse for sell; or Trade all lines (VWAP, SD1Pos, SD2Pos, and SD3Pos) in the same way. Again, reverse for sell. Indicator lines (indicator buffers) can be called with iCustom in Expert Advisors created by Expert Advisor builder software or custom coded Expert Advisors: No empty values; and No repainting.
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