Technical Outlook, Strategies & Commentaries On The Major Currencies

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

GBPUSD: Consolidates, Looks For A Bottom

 

GBPUSD: GBP continues to look for a bottom to signal a correction. If this occurs, further upside should build up towards the 1.6589 level where a breach if seen will set the stage for a run at the 1.6653 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.6718 level with a turn above here opening the door for a run at the 1.6785 level and then the 1.6822 level. On the other hand, support lies at the 1.6425 level with a break turning focus to the downside towards the 1.6350 level, its psycho level. A cut through here will pave the way for a run at the 1.6300 level and then the 1.6250 level. On the whole, GBP continues to retain its downside vulnerability but recovery risks are envisaged.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

USDJPY: Looks For Directional Trigger

 

USDJPY: The pair remains trapped in a range as it looks to create directional moves. This development leaves it vulnerable to the downside possibly towards the 101.27 level. Below here will expose the 100.75 level with a violation aiming at the 100.00 level and subsequently the 99.50 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further decline. On the upside, resistance resides at the 102.62 level. A cut through here will aim at the 103.00 level and then the 103.50 level, its psycho level. On the whole, USDJPY faces downside pressure on correction.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

GOLD: Weighed Down By Bears.

 

GOLD: With GOLD reversing its intra-day gains to weak further today, further downside pressure is now envisaged. Key support lies at its big psycho level at the 1,300 .00. We expect bulls to come in here and push it higher but if broken further downside is likely towards the 1,280.00 level followed by the 1,250 level. Its daily RSI bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, for GOLD to annul its correction it will have to recapture the 1,367.40 level, a tough call based on its present price action. Further out, resistance resides at the 1,388.95 level, its Mat 17 2014 high followed by the 1,400.00 level, its psycho level. A break will trigger further upside pressure towards the 1,450.00 level, its psycho level. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the downside in the short term despite recovery attempts

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

EURGBP – Bearish, Extends Sell Off

 

EURGBP- With a third day of decline now underway, the cross looks to weaken further in the days ahead. Support lies at the 0.8250 level where a break will expose the 0.8230 level. Further down, support resides at the 0.8200 level where a break will pave the way for a run at the 0.8157 level, its Feb 17 2014 low. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. Conversely, resistance resides at the 0.8300 level where a break will pave the way for a run at the 0.8350 level. A cut through here set the stage for a move higher towards the 0.8399 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 0.8450 level and then the 0.8500 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the downside on bearishness.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

USDCAD: Bearish, Targets Further Downside.

 

USDCAD: The pair weakened further on Thursday leaving further pressure on the cards. Support lies at the 1.1000 level. We expect this big psycho level to hold and turn it higher but if breaks, further declining could occur towards the 1.0950 level and then the 1.0900 level. Bulls may come here and turn the pair back up. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, resistance resides the 1.1100 level where a break will aim at the 1.1150 level and then the 1.1200 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.1277 level. All in all, USDCAD faces further bearish risk.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

EURUSD: Vulnerable, Weakens For Two Weeks In A Row

 

EURUSD: With EUR weakening for a second week in a row the past week, further downside pressure could be seen. However, with a rejection candle and marginal higher close seen on Friday, recovery risk could happen this new week. Support lies at the 1.3704 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.3650 level where a violation will target the 1.3600 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, on a recovery higher, the pair will aim at the 1.3796 level followed by the 1.3844 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.3900 level where a breach will aim at the 1.3966 level followed by the 1.4000 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the upside in the long term but faces bear threats.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

EURJPY: Follows Through Higher, Eyes Further Strength

 

EURJPY- Having reversed its earlier losses to close higher the past week, the cross is now seen rallying strongly during Monday trading session. Resistance resides at the 143.00 level with a break triggering further upside towards the 143.73 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 144.00 level where a break will turn attention to the 144.50 level and then the 144.00 level. A violation will push it further higher towards the 145.50 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Conversely, on pullbacks support comes in at the 141.97 level where a reversal of roles as support is expected. Further down support lies at the 141.00 level where a breach will target the 140.43 level. Bulls may come in here but if this fails to occur, further decline will follow towards the 139.96 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the upside on recovery.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

The Week Ahead On USDCHF

 

USDCHF: With USDCHF capping its strength at the 0.8952 level to close the marginally lower (daily chart), it faces the risk of a correction in the new week. Expect it returned above the 0.8952 level, this view remains valid with eyes on the downside. Support lies at the 0.8874 level where a violation if seen targeting the 0.8813 level. A cut through here will set the stage for a run at the 0.8750 level and subsequently the 0.8698 level. If it violates this level it will resume its medium term downtrend presently on hold. Further down, support comes in at the 0.8650 level. On the other hand, the pair will have to return above the 0.8952 level to prevent any downside incursion. This if seen will aim at the 0.8900 level with a close above here if seen will aiming at the 0.9000 level and next the 0.9050 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside in the short term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

USDCHF: Closes Lower, Eyes Further Bearishness.

 

USDCHF: With USDCHF declining strongly to take back almost all of its three weeks gains the past week, the risk is for more weakness to occur. However, watch out for any correction following the mentioned decline. Immediate support lies at the 0.8700 level where a break will turn focus to the 0.8650 level. A cut through here will set the stage for a run at the 0.8600 level and subsequently the 0.8550 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the other hand, the pair will have to return above the 0.8952 level to annul its entire last week losses. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9050 level. This if broken will aim at the 0.9100 level with a close above here if seen will aiming at the 0.9150 level and next the 0.9200 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside in the medium term

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

Weekly Technical Strategist On EURUSD

 

EURUSD: Although EUR continues to retain its upside bias, it faces the risk of a corrective pullback in the new week. Support lies at the 1.3820 level where a break will aim at the 1.3770 level. Further down, support resides at the 1.3676 level with a loss of there threatening further downside towards the 1.3600 level where a violation will target the 1.3550 level. Conversely, on further strength, the pair will aim at the 1.3900 level followed by the 1.3950 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.4000 level where a breach will aim at the 1.4050 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the upside in the long term but faces bear threats.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

EURJPY: Outlook Lower On Correction

 

EURJPY- We continue to hold our corrective bias view on EURJPY though seen hesitating. On the upside, resistance resides at the 141.88 level followed by the 142.29 level where a break will aim at the 143.78 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 144.00 level where a violation will turn attention to the 144.50 level and then the 144.00 level. On the downside, support lies at 140.22 level followed by the 139.50 level where a violation will aim at the 139.00 level and then the 138.00 level. All in all, the cross remains broadly biased to the downside though threatening a recovery.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

USDCHF: Vulnerable, Fails To Build On Strength

 

USDCHF: The pair remains vulnerable to the downsides after failing to build on its previous week gains at the end of the week. This development now leaves it targeting the 0.8742 level where a break will turn focus to the 0.8700 level. A cut through here will set the stage for a run at the 0.8650 level and subsequently the 0.8600 level. If it violates this level it will resume its medium term downtrend. On the upside, resistance resides at the 0.8900 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.8952 level. This level if broken will aim at the 0.8900 level with a close above here aiming at the 0.9000 level and next the 0.9050 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside in the medium term

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

EURUSD: Still Faces Bear Threats.

 

EURUSD: Our bias on EUR continues to point lower. This is coming on the back of its failure to break and hold above the 1.3864 level. Support lies at the 1.3779 level where a break will aim at the 1.3737 level followed by the 1.3676 level. Further down, support stands at the 1.3600 level where a violation will target the 1.3550 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, medium term outlook on EUR remains higher but will have to recapture the 1.3966 level to annul its present bear pressure. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.4000 level, its big psycho level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the upside in the long term but faces corrective weakness threats.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

Commodity Technical Outlook On GOLD

 

GOLD: With the commodity closing on a rejection candle the past week, we look for price correction in the new week. On the upside, resistance is seen at the 1,318.30 level where a violation will aim at the 1,331 level. Above here if seen will trigger further gains towards the 1,359.00 level followed by the 1,380.00 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1,400.00 level. Its weekly RSI has turned higher supporting this view. Conversely, support comes in at the 1,277.58 level with a turn below here targeting the 1,250.00 level followed by the 1,230.00 level. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the upside in the short term

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

EURGBP- With the cross halting its decline to close marginally higher the past week, further upside is envisaged in the new week. Having taken back its intra day losses during Monday trading, the risk is for a follow through higher to occur. Resistance lies at the 0.8250 level where a breach will set the stage for a run at the 0.8350 level and then the 0.8400 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.8284 level and then the 0.8400 level. On the downside, support comes in at the 0.8200 level where a violation will turn attention to the 0.8157 level. Further downside support comes in at the 0.8100 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, All in all, the cross remains biased to the downside short term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

USDJPY: Bullish, Extends Recovery

 

USDJPY: With USDJPY strengthening for a second day in a row today, further bullishness is envisaged. However, it requires a convincing break and hold above the 102.72 level to create scope for more upside. Resistance comes in at the 103.00 level where a breach will turn focus to the 103.50 level. Further out, resistance is seen at the 104.00 level and then the 104.50 level. On the other hand, support stands at the 102.00 level where a break if seen will aim at the 101.50 followed by the 101.00 and then the 100.75 level. Further down, support stands at the 100.00 level followed by the 99.00 level. On the whole, USDJPY remains exposed to the upside on corrective recovery risk.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

GBPUSD: Can GBP Break Above The 1.3857/77 Levels?

 

GBPUSD: Although closing marginally higher on Tuesday and struggling to strengthen further, downside threat remains while holding below the 1.6857/77 levels. The big question is can GBP break and hold above that zone. It is tough to break with poor price action on the upside but if it does break that area expect a run at the 1.6900 level to occur. A violation will target the 1.6950 level and then its big psycho level at the 1.7000 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, support lies at the 1.6762 level where a break will turn focus to the 1.6719 level where a violation will aim at the 1.6683 level. A cut through here if seen will allow further downside towards the 1.6600 level. On the whole, GBP continues to retain its upside bias but faces pullback risks.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

USDCHF: Turns Lower, Eyes Further Downside

 

USDCHF: With USDCHF turning lower on the back of a loss of upside momentum, further downside is likely. It now eyes a return to the 0.8769 level where a break will turn focus to the 0.8750 level. A cut through here will set the stage for a run at the 0.8700 level and subsequently the 0.8650 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, resistance resides at the 0.8850 level where a violation will aim at the 0.8900 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.8952 level. This level if broken will aim at the 0.8900 level with a close above here aiming at the 0.9000 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside in the medium term

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

Daily Technical Strategist On GBPJPY

 

GBPJPY – With the cross reversing its Wednesday losses on Thursday to close higher, further upside is now envisaged. In such a case, resistance comes in at the 173.13 level where a break will open the door for additional gains towards the 174.00 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 174.84 level and then the 175.50 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support is located at the 171.93 level where a break will aim at the 170.00 level followed by the 169.49 level. A cut through here if seen will target the 168.63 level and then the 168.00 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the upside in the long term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

USDCHF: Weakens, Targets Further Downside

 

USDCHF: With USDCHF closing lower the past week and continuing to trade below its falling trendline, it faces further downside bias. On the downside, support lies at the 0.8742 level where a break will turn focus to the 0.8698 level. A cut through here will set the stage for a run at the 0.8650 level and subsequently the 0.8600 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, recovery if triggered will target the 0.8861 level where a break will aim at the 0.8900 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 0.8952 level. This level if broken will aim at the 0.8900 level with a close above here aiming at the 0.9000 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside in the medium term

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

EURUSD: Bear Threats Not Yet Over.

 

EURUSD: Our bias on EUR continues to point lower while holding below the 1.3905 level. Though closing marginally higher the past week, except it returns above the mentioned level, the risk remains lower. Support lies at the 1.3779 level where a break will aim at the 1.3737 level followed by the 1.3676 level. Further down, support stands at the 1.3600 level where a violation will target the 1.3550 level. Conversely, medium term outlook on EUR remains higher but it will have to recapture the 1.3905 level and 1.3966 level to resume that uptrend. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.4000 level, its big psycho level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the upside in the long term but faces corrective weakness threats.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

USDJPY: Declines, Looks To Weaken Further.

 

USDJPY: With USDJPY following through lower on the back of its Friday losses, it now looks for more downside pressure in the days ahead. Support lies at the 101.50 level where a break if seen will aim at the 101.00 followed by the 100.50 and then the 100.00 level. Further down, support stands at the 99.50 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, resistance resides at the 102.77.00 level where a breach will turn focus to the 103.50 level. Further out, resistance is seen at the 104.00 level and then the 104.50 level. On the whole, USDJPY remains exposed to the downside.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

Special Focus On USDCAD

 

USDCAD: Rolls Over, Eyes The 1.0857 Level.

 

USDCAD: With the pair selling off strongly during Tuesday trading session, further weakness is now envisaged in the days ahead. Support lies at the 1.0857 level with a break if seen targeting the 1.0800 level followed by the 1.0750 level. Below here will create scope for further downside towards the 1.0700 level where a breach will push it lower towards the 1.0650 level and then the 1.0600 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1.0935 level where a reversal of roles as support is likely to occur and turn it lower. However, if broken further strength should build up towards the 1.1000 level. A violation will open the door for more upside towards the 1.1069 level and subsequently the 1.1100 level.. All in all, USDCAD faces further downside pressure.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

EURUSD: Bullish But Faces Strong Overhead Resistance

 

EURUSD: EUR rallied to close higher on Tuesday but faces key over head resistance. We are wary of the 1.3966/1.4000 levels. We think the pair might not sustain a break above those levels if seen. In case this occurs expect further upside to happen towards the 1.4050 level and then the 1.4100 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. Conversely, support lies at the 1.3900 level where a break will aim at the 1.3871 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.3800 level where we may see a respite. But if breached it will target the 1.3737 level followed by the 1.3676 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the upside in the long term but faces corrective pullback risk.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team 10]

Commodity Technical Outlook On GOLD

 

GOLD: Remains Weak And Vulnerable.

 

GOLD: While GOLD may still be biased to the upside above the 1,273.80/1,268.39 levels, it continues to face downside risk. This leaves the commodity vulnerable to the downside towards the 1,273.80 level where a breach will set the stage for a run at the 1,268.39 level. Further down, a turn below the mentioned support will target the 1,250.00 level followed by the 1,230.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, resistance comes in at the 1,299.40 level where a break if seen will set the stage for a run at the 1,315.48 level. A violation will aim at the 1,331.36 level with a cut through here turning attention to the 1,342.00 level followed by the 1,388.00 level. A close above here will open the door for the resumption of its long term upside towards the 1,400.00 level. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the downside short term.