Complex Candlestick Patterns

[RichardCox 10]

Candlestick patterns are one of the most popular technical analysis elements used by forex traders. This is largely because of their utility in gaining significant market insight at a glance. Most of us are familiar with some of the more basic candlestick patterns but, in many cases, these simpler patterns will generate false trading signals because they occur in a frequency that is too great.

 

Here, we will look at some of the more advanced (and more rare) candlestick patterns. These patterns tend to offer a preferable rate of reliability, especially when they occur in conjunction with other price patterns (such as trading gaps). But these patterns also tend to be less well known as many traders stop their research once the more popular patterns have been covered.

 

The Three White Soldiers Pattern

 

The Three White Soldiers candlestick pattern takes price data from three time units and indicates that a bullish reversal is unfolding after a large bear wave. The pattern is made up of three long, positive candles in a sequential uptrend, which looks something like a staircase. Each candle opens above the high of the previous time unit (often in the middle of the range of the previous time unit).

 

Each candle closes above the previous close, posting a new short term high. The Three Soldiers pattern signals an end to a bearish move and that the market is turning positive. The opposite of this pattern is the Three Black Crows candlestick pattern.

 

The Three Black Crows Pattern

 

The Three Black Crows candlestick pattern takes price data from three time units and indicates that a bearish reversal is unfolding after a large bull wave has come to an end. The pattern is made up of three long, negative candles in a sequential downtrend, which looks something like a downward staircase.

 

Each candle opens below the low of the previous time unit (often in the middle of the range of the previous time unit). Each candle closes below the previous close, posting a new short term low in the trend. The Three Black Crows pattern signals an end to a bullish move and that the market is turning negative.

 

The Hikkake Pattern

 

The Hikkake Pattern is a more variable candlestick formation in that it can indicate either reversals or continuations, depending on the overriding trend seen in the market. The pattern is sometimes referred to by other names, such as an Inside False Breakout or a simple Fake Out but since these terms can also apply to other patterns, the term Hikkake is generally preferred. The pattern is made up of a period of stalling (a contraction in volatility), which is then followed by a short-lived price move that initially fools unsuspecting traders with respect to the next major price direction. However, like the other patterns, the Hikkake should not be viewed as a stand-alone signal capable of generating trades on its own.

 

There is a bullish and bearish version of the pattern. In both cases, the first candle is an Inside Bar (higher low and lower high, relative to the previous unit). Then, we see a candle with a higher low/higher high (for the bearish pattern), or a candle with a lower low/lower high (for the bullish pattern). Confirmation that a true pattern signal has been generated comes when price falls below the low seen in the first candle (in the bearish pattern), or when prices rise above the high seen in the first candle (for the bullish pattern). This confirmation must be seen within three candles of the last bar, or the signal becomes invalid.

 

The Island Candlestick Pattern

 

The Island Candlestick pattern marks reversals in price activity, and is comprised of multiple candles that are separated from the majority of the currency’s price action (after a price gap). As a downtrend is reaching completion, there will be many instances where markets will make one more push and create an exhaustion gap. When prices consolidate in this area for a few periods (candle values change depending on the charting time frame), the previous trend officially comes to an end.

 

 

Here, prices reverse and create another breakaway gap, and in this direction the next trend will begin. This creates a visual pattern that is one of the clearest of the advanced candlestick patterns, and resembles an island, separated from the “larger land mass,” which is the majority of price activity. Given the erratic nature of these moves, it is not surprising to see Doji patterns or at least candlesticks with long upper wicks (for bearish formations) or long lower wicks (for bullish formations).

 

These patterns are traded in ways similar to breakaway gaps, where entries come as prices move through the gap, and stop losses are placed below the gap (in bullish scenarios) or above the gap (in bearish scenarios). These patterns ar5e relatively rare, and this helps to create a greater chance of seeing a successful signal once a clear formation actually becomes apparent.

 

The Piercing Candlestick Pattern

 

The Piercing Candlestick Pattern is a bullish formation that occurs as a downtrend is coming to an end. The pattern is made up of two candles. In a downtrend, the first candle is negative (in line with the dominant trend). In the next candle, prices open below the low of the first candle and rise dramatically but still fail to make a new high. This secondary candle will close inside the body of the first candle.

 

 

When this formation is seen, it is clear that buyers are looking to take control of the asset. Chances of a true reversal improve when prices in the second candle close near the previous highs.

 

The Dark Cloud Cover Candlestick Pattern

 

The Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern (as the name suggests) is a bearish formation, which occurs at the height of a dominant uptrend. The formation is made up of two candles, with the first showing a positive performance (in line with the previous uptrend). In the following period, prices move above the previous candle high but, at this stage, markets see excessive supply which later deflates prices. Because of this, prices will close within the body of the first candle period.

 

 

When the Dark Cloud Cover is seen, there is an increased likelihood that sellers will assume control of the market and send prices lower. There is a greater chance that this is the case when the second candle shows a close that comes near the old lows. In these cases, traders can work off of the assumption that a top is in place. The Dark Cloud Cover is the bearish version of the Piercing Candle formation.

 

Expanding Knowledge of Candlestick Formations

 

Candlestick formations are one of the most popular technical analysis approaches that are used by chart focused traders. But it should be remembered that there is a wide library of available formations that can be used in order to initiate trade ideas or to substantiate trade ideas that come from other sources. All of these formations are supported by an underlying logic and can give quick visual signals for how prices are likely to perform into the future. It is always important to have a wide understanding of these formations so that trading probabilities can be enhanced with a larger number of supportive elements.

[wciszak 10]

The patterns described here seem to work only on well chosen charts. I have tested numerous candlestick patterns on 10 years of data in various markets and have not found a single pattern that performs better than a random signal. If you have actually tested any of these patterns and found them effective, please publish the results and prove me wrong.

[wrbtrader 10]

The patterns described here seem to work only on well chosen charts. I have tested numerous candlestick patterns on 10 years of data in various markets and have not found a single pattern that performs better than a random signal. If you have actually tested any of these patterns and found them effective, please publish the results and prove me wrong.

 

There already exist publish results showing some Japanese Candlestick patterns "do" work (profitable) and other publish results showing some Japanese Candlestick patterns "do not" work (losers).

 

Please don't ask me to post the links to the academia results when its already been done in other past discussions about Japanese Candlestick patterns here and other forums. Yet, off the top of my head, you can review the ongoing (current) testing results by Thomas Bulkowski or past academia work by Chang. Google search should point you in the right direction.

 

My point, I've seen at least 20 different academia research articles or abstract from both sides of the camp that some patterns are profitable and some patterns are not profitable. Yet, not surprisingly, when I contacted many about the specific trade management rules they used "after" the pattern signal...they all used different rules. Thus, that's why they have different results (no brainer). :doh:

 

Therefore, due to the fact that you implied you've test "all patterns" via saying you have not found a single pattern...can you provide the following information:

 

1) Specific trading instruments (e.g. Forex EurUsd) and historical data time period (e.g. years 2000 - 2010)

 

2) Specific time frames tested Japanese Candlestick pattern tested (e.g. weekly, daily and 1 hour chart)

 

3) Specific trade management rules "after" entry (e.g. initial stop/loss, trail stop management, profit targets)

 

4) Test procedure...codes or manual (e.g. Tradestation)

 

I'm also curious if you've tested Japanese Candlestick patterns in conjunction with Gaps as the author RichardCox stated are more reliable even though he has not discussed any specific trade method of using Japanese Candlestick patterns with Trading Gaps.

 

Therefore, have you tested Japanese Candlestick patterns with Gaps and can you post the specific details of your results via the requested above information. ???

[wciszak 10]

I appreciate your reply. I use the following method in testing trading signals. The entry signal would be a single criterion (such as a particular pattern). The exit is after a fixed number of bars, with no stops. If the results are breakeven after a large number tests, this indicates that the pattern has no predictive value. If a group of test results shows a bias to one side or the other (indicating a possible predictive value) I would then compare these results to results obtained with a random entry signal. (Even random trading signals tested on random data can produce profitable subsets - clearly created by chance). The "real" signal not only has to show bias but this bias has to be significantly stronger than the best results produced by random signals, This is similar to testing drugs in the pharmaceutical industry. The candidate drug not only has to work but has to work better than a placebo,

The idea that candlestick patterns must be tested together with other patterns (such as gaps) also resembles some claims in the drug industry. For example, a common remedy for joint pain contains glucosamine and MSM. Extensive studies were undertaken which showed both ingredients to be useless. The manufacturers hit back with the claim that the tests were not valid because the ingredients were tested separately and not together. Perhaps, if they had been tested together, with the same results, the objection might have been that the pill should have been taken 5 times a day and not 3 times a day, as tested. Clearly, there is no end to this and what it amounts to is overoptimization. For more views on this, you might want to want to take a look at my article on optimization.

[wrbtrader 10]

Hi,

 

The information you gave me didn't come close to what I asked about.

 

Regardless, the fact is that there's a commonality between well documented academia that have tested candlestick patterns and published their results (I did give you two particular name for you to research). They did find "some" Japanese Candlestick patterns to specifically to being profitable. In contrast, other academia have found no evidence to these patterns to being profitable.

 

Therefore, I decided to do my own investigation into why such a contrast in these published results that show in-depth statistical data. Answer - All using different trade management rules except for a few that intended on trying to re-duplicate someone's published results.

 

By the way, I did get a chuckle out of your drug analogy but maybe because my academic background is microbiology, immunology and someone that dropped out of medical school.

 

Here's my analogy via a race car (e.g. formula 1). You put two drivers in the exact same designed race car, drivers that weigh the exact same and they start the race at the exact same time...

 

Why is it that most of the races they don't finish in a tie ?

 

Why is it that one will crash and the other will not ?

 

Why will one consistently finish in the top performers of the races and the other finish in the bottom performers in the same races ?

 

The answer, one of the drivers is just better at driving the race car and most likely has better resources in managing that race car during any given race.

 

That's why some traders are profitable at using Japanese Candlestick patterns and others still can't figure out the answer to profitability. Simply, same reason why many publish results by the academia show some patterns to being profitable and same reason why some in the academia show the same patterns to being "not" profitable...all that stuff that occurs after the race has started.

 

There's no right or wrong. You're either profitable or not.

Edited December 17, 2012 by wrbtrader

[wciszak 10]

You have made two interesting points.

 

1. You have observed that the difference between a profitable candlestick system and an unprofitable one is trade management. If so, then could it be that it is the trade management and not the candlestick pattern that contains the money making logic? After all, it can be shown that it is possible to produce profitable trading results from a random entry signal coupled with a logical exit signal that has its own predictive value. In other words, the entire predictive algorithm is in the exit part of the system. Could the candlestick pattern be the proverbial stone in the stone soup?

 

2. With your race driver analogy you have argued that trading success lies not in the method itself but in its skillful execution. It is true that some gifted people have exceptional instincts that allow them to quickly make the right decisions in confusing situations that would confound others (I am not one of them and, if you are, then my hat is off to you with a deep bow). That is why I prefer not to rely on my own fickle judgement but to have well defined and reliable rules instead.

[wrbtrader 10]

Hi,

 

Here's a brief summary of my personal trading observations and trading experiences that may be different to other traders about Japanese Candlestick patterns or any other technical analysis price action pattern.

 

I've never met a profitable trader that only uses Japanese Candlestick Analysis and nothing else. Thus, I've been trading long enough to know the importance of other variables in a profitable trader's trading plan (e.g. money management, position size management, properly capitalize, trade experience, discipline, trade management, proper trade environment, trade method and so on)...all of which do have impact on a trader's trading results. Simply, its the trader and all the variables working together as a trading plan that determines if one will be a profitable trader or not...not the trade method all by itself. Thus, on any given trading day, one of those variables or in combo with another variable will be the deciding factor for profits or losses.

 

That's why I don't believe in testing just one ingredient on a pizza to determine if the entire pizza is good or not when there's obvious other ingredients on that pizza that includes the bread dough and sauce.

 

Thus, when someone says TA doesn't work or Japanese Candlesticks doesn't work when there's documented proof that "some" does work...it implies that trader has not yet figure out how to make it work while others have. In other words, its not all about the entry signal, not all about the trade management...it's not one or the other. Its about all the variables working together as a team in one's trading plan. That's the primary reason why so many traders using the same trade methods while trading the same trading instruments will have different trade results...essence of my formula 1 racing analogy.

 

Once again, I've never met a profitable trader that uses Japanese Candlestick patterns and nothing else (see variables mentioned above). In contrast, I have met profitable traders that uses Japanese Candlestick patterns in their trading plan.

 

There's more to profitable trading than just trade signals. Traders and academia that fail to understand such...good luck with that.

 

You have made two interesting points.

 

1. You have observed that the difference between a profitable candlestick system and an unprofitable one is trade management. If so, then could it be that it is the trade management and not the candlestick pattern that contains the money making logic? After all, it can be shown that it is possible to produce profitable trading results from a random entry signal coupled with a logical exit signal that has its own predictive value. In other words, the entire predictive algorithm is in the exit part of the system. Could the candlestick pattern be the proverbial stone in the stone soup?

 

2. With your race driver analogy you have argued that trading success lies not in the method itself but in its skillful execution. It is true that some gifted people have exceptional instincts that allow them to quickly make the right decisions in confusing situations that would confound others (I am not one of them and, if you are, then my hat is off to you with a deep bow). That is why I prefer not to rely on my own fickle judgement but to have well defined and reliable rules instead.

[Colonel B 10]

So do you use this with the Gann square of 9 stuff or is this a stand alone thing?

[DbPhoenix 42]

I like what you're doing here, or trying to do. But I would like to make/reiterate one small (?) point.

 

Thus, when someone says TA doesn't work or Japanese Candlesticks doesn't work when there's documented proof that "some" does work...it implies that trader has not yet figure out how to make it work while others have.

 

TA does not "work". Candles don't "work". Nor do indicators. Nor does the *** Method/Approach. What all of these do do is provide information. The loser, however, does not know what to do with this information. He is likely not even aware of it. In the case of candles, he will focus with laser-like precision on the "pattern" and whether or not it fits predetermined criteria and pay no attention whatsoever to the trader behavior that formed the pattern in the first place. If he did, he would know what to do with it, or as a result of it. But he doesn't. So he follows the drill he read in the book/whatever and he loses. And since he has no idea why ("whuh?"), he returns to his book/whatever and studies his patterns some more.

 

There should be some hint of this in the fact that candle "patterns" disappear when the interval is changed. But rather than find his Aha! moment, the loser will instead decide that the only interval to trade is the 5m (or 15m or 60m or whatever) and disregard or view with derision all other intervals and become what amounts to a liquidity well.

 

Db

[sidra 10]

The patterns described here seem to work only on well chosen charts. I have tested numerous candlestick patterns on 10 years of data in various markets and have not found a single pattern that performs better than a random signal. If you have actually tested any of these patterns and found them effective, please publish the results and prove me wrong.

 

I agreed ! I was expecting to get a chart that can work out with the help of this ! I get the same result as you did :crap:.. I want you (the author) to do this for us, I mean to show how I can get a reliable chart? my data was of 7 years !

[wrbtrader 10]

I agreed ! I was expecting to get a chart that can work out with the help of this ! I get the same result as you did :crap:.. I want you (the author) to do this for us, I mean to show how I can get a reliable chart? my data was of 7 years !

 

The author intent, I believe, was to provide a dictionary explanation of what the complex candlestick pattern looks like. Thus, I don't think he intended to provide any in-depth information about the use of complex candlestick patterns in combo with "trading gaps" price action and that could be why he doesn't respond to my questions.

 

Therefore, I'll ask you the same question, can you share your 7 years of work involving complex candlestick patterns in combo with trading gap price actions. I know Chang publish some statistical work involving candlestick patterns and trading gap price actions...his results show them working. He's just one of many that have publish academic articles that show "some" candlestick patterns working in specific types of price actions while others published just as many academic articles showing it does not work in other types of price actions.

 

As for Chang, if I remember correctly, I believe Chang's work involved Taiwan futures (maybe it was Japanese futures) via about 10 years of data.

 

Yet, the author Richard Cox saids its reliable and shows generic charts. Thus, he doesn't mention any specific trading instruments. Just the same, wciszak saids its not reliable and refused to answer my questions (where's his stats via what trading instruments).

 

Thus, I'm asking you the same questions...

 

• Where's your stats ?
   
  
• What trading instruments were tested ?
  

 

Did you test these complex candlestick patterns in trading gap price actions that are discussed by the author Richard Cox or do you know anyone (please name the person) that has tested these patterns in trading gap price actions ?

 

Surely someone can cough up some details (Richard Cox, wciszak or sidra) just as those that have published their own personal proof that it works / doesn't work. So many different variables (e.g. trading instruments, trade management after entry, time frames, types of price actions, market context of the duration tested and so on)...everybody has different results as expected. :rofl:

Edited January 9, 2013 by wrbtrader