Swing Trading Futures

[karoshiman 10]

Covered remaining 50% of long pos. in YM @ 14,478 with a profit. Upside B/O out of cons. area failed. Support at 14,480 should have held.

[clmacdougall 11]

Still am saying watch 309. Big number for a short position against relative PA resistance above it. We'll figure that number when 309 is broken. Could be a phony new high for the purpose of liquidating longstanding longs.

[clmacdougall 11]

Get through 14,309 and you could be clear for a quick run down to 14,000.

[karoshiman 10]

Still am saying watch 309. Big number for a short position against relative PA resistance above it. We'll figure that number when 309 is broken. Could be a phony new high for the purpose of liquidating longstanding longs.

 

 

I think, if we get through 14,450 we will at least get close to the 14,309. Not sure, whether I should trade this, though.

[clmacdougall 11]

I think, if we get through 14,450 we will at least get close to the 14,309. Not sure, whether I should trade this, though.

 

Why are you eyeing 450?

[clmacdougall 11]

450 has 3 points of support to breakthrough before a run down can be considered. 309 only has 1, so the risk is good. Along with that was the protected 309 low two days after the 308 low. Vulnerable for a large scale surrender to price moving against it.

[karoshiman 10]

450 has 3 points of support to breakthrough before a run down can be considered. 309 only has 1, so the risk is good. Along with that was the protected 309 low two days after the 308 low. Vulnerable for a large scale surrender to price moving against it.

 

 

Can you explain this in more detail? I don't understand exactly what you mean by that... I see that price touched 308 on March 19 and 309 on March 21, so that this seems to be an important short-term support level.

 

I refer to the 450 (roughly) as price hit 453 on April 1 and 454 on April 3, seemingly being another short-term support level. My thinking was, if this strong support is pierced clearly, it should be easy for price to move to the next support level, which is the 309 area, mentioned above.

[clmacdougall 11]

Can you explain this in more detail? I don't understand exactly what you mean by that... I see that price touched 308 on March 19 and 309 on March 21, so that this seems to be an important short-term support level.

 

I refer to the 450 (roughly) as price hit 453 on April 1 and 454 on April 3, seemingly being another short-term support level. My thinking was, if this strong support is pierced clearly, it should be easy for price to move to the next support level, which is the 309 area, mentioned above.

 

Look at the pivot lows of 364, 309 & 269 it would have to pierce through before a straight line run down to around 14,000. Just my opinion!!

[karoshiman 10]

Short YM from 14,445 as most recent support at ca. 14,450 (April 1 + 3) has been pierced. Next support at ca. 14,300.

[clmacdougall 11]

Short YM from 14,445 as most recent support at ca. 14,450 (April 1 + 3) has been pierced. Next support at ca. 14,300.

 

Good call!!! It's at about 372 now, let's see what happens at 364.

[karoshiman 10]

Good call!!! It's at about 372 now, let's see what happens at 364.

 

Nice call with the 364!

[clmacdougall 11]

Nice call with the 364!

 

Are you still holding that short or have you flipped long in the mid 60's?

[clmacdougall 11]

You are close to an Al Brooks setup, let me know where you stand right now.

[karoshiman 10]

You are close to an Al Brooks setup, let me know where you stand right now.

 

 

I have my short pos. still.

 

YM is at a critical point, though. Price retraced to the upward trend line it violated this week (see daily chart). Also, on the intraday chart you can see the retracement to the downward trend line (see hourly chart).

 

What is the Al brooks setup you mention? I haven't read any of his books.

[clmacdougall 11]

I have my short pos. still.

 

YM is at a critical point, though. Price retraced to the upward trend line it violated this week (see daily chart). Also, on the intraday chart you can see the retracement to the downward trend line (see hourly chart).

 

What is the Al brooks setup you mention? I haven't read any of his books.

 

The object in swing trading is "I think" to trade for one clear swing. Your style of trading is a mix between swing and position trading. I personally feel you should have exited at the mid 60's.

If you have the time, please buy and read "The Art and Science of Technical Analysis" by Grimes. It will help you immensely as it is written for the swing trader. An excellent read for your style of trading. It will really help you to define targets.

Brooks 3 books on trading PA are comprehensive to say the least, and poorly organized from a writers or students perspective. But he doesn't claim to be a good writer just a good trader. I saw a 'double leg upswing' contained within a 'lower leg with trend downswing' that led to a short opportunity on a lower low of what Brooks calls a 'high 2' . It developed when the 8:20 bar broke below the low of the 8:15 bar. Have a look and tell me if you can figure it out. I tried to alert you.

[karoshiman 10]

The object in swing trading is "I think" to trade for one clear swing. Your style of trading is a mix between swing and position trading. I personally feel you should have exited at the mid 60's.

If you have the time, please buy and read "The Art and Science of Technical Analysis" by Grimes. It will help you immensely as it is written for the swing trader. An excellent read for your style of trading. It will really help you to define targets.

Brooks 3 books on trading PA are comprehensive to say the least, and poorly organized from a writers or students perspective. But he doesn't claim to be a good writer just a good trader. I saw a 'double leg upswing' contained within a 'lower leg with trend downswing' that led to a short opportunity on a lower low of what Brooks calls a 'high 2' . It developed when the 8:20 bar broke below the low of the 8:15 bar. Have a look and tell me if you can figure it out. I tried to alert you.

 

 

Thanks for the book suggestion.

 

No, I can't figure it out... Do you refer to 5 min. charts? I assumed you referred with 8:20 and 8:15 to EST hours yesterday. Is that correct?

[clmacdougall 11]

Thanks for the book suggestion.

 

No, I can't figure it out... Do you refer to 5 min. charts? I assumed you referred with 8:20 and 8:15 to EST hours yesterday. Is that correct?

 

Yes it's 5 min bars but I believe its CST.

[karoshiman 10]

Yes it's 5 min bars but I believe its CST.

 

 

Yes, that makes more sense. Should have figured that out...

[karoshiman 10]

Been kicked out of YM short pos. at 14,525 with a loss.

[clmacdougall 11]

Been kicked out of YM short pos. at 14,525 with a loss.

 

In my estimation this has broken the uptrend until further notice and can be shorted now on a lower low on a day timeframe. A brake below 432 is now a short opportunity, but that must occur before a higher high than 610, hopefully a higher low will be established over the next few days to trade against, moving up the short entry higher than 432. Discovered that method from Mark Rivalland' book " Swing Trading", another great read!!

If your gutsy you may even look to short the break of an intraday low pivot/congestion area like maybe the consolidation around 500.

[karoshiman 10]

 

... but that must occur before a higher high than 610, ...

 

 

Thank you, Cory!

 

What is the logic behind this (see quote)?

[karoshiman 10]

 

In my estimation this has broken the uptrend ...

 

 

Can you explain this as well? Why do you consider it now as broken? Uptrend on which time frame?

[karoshiman 10]

Can you explain this as well? Why do you consider it now as broken? Uptrend on which time frame?

 

 

I'm currently looking for opportunities in both directions, btw.

[clmacdougall 11]

Thank you, Cory!

 

What is the logic behind this (see quote)?

 

Look at the last low pivot before the highest high in the day timeframe. It occured on Mar 27 at 14,364. That has effectively been broken on Apr 5 as the market broke to 14,361. Support was broken and the uptrend is over until a move above 14,610 can occur. You are now in the best contrarian setup possible while the major break has not yet happened, you are near the high while support has been broken.

[karoshiman 10]

Look at the last low pivot before the highest high in the day timeframe. It occured on Mar 27 at 14,364. That has effectively been broken on Apr 5 as the market broke to 14,361. Support was broken and the uptrend is over until a move above 14,610 can occur. You are now in the best contrarian setup possible while the major break has not yet happened, you are near the high while support has been broken.

 

 

Thanks. I've misread your initial comment. Makes sense!