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karoshiman

Swing Trading Futures

By karoshiman, in Swing Trading and Position Trading

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lastninja2    10

lastninja2
Posted

"Long YM again at 14,310"

 

"Out of YM long at 14,293"

 

I have a lot of respect for how diligently you have posted your trades publicly.

 

Would like to offer a second opinion from the sidelines if I may - guess this thread would be pointless if no one ever commented.

 

 

I think the long YM at 14310 was good. My reasoning would not have been quite so specific as the trend line you have drawn. My premise would have been the same as a 5-year old child might come up with: this market has obviously been trending up for some time and it is probably better than 50/50 shout that the next leg will be upside again.

 

But to bail at 14,293 ... only 17 prices lower.

It's kind of equivalent to going long ES at 1400 and puking out at 1398.3

 

Just seems more like a scalping trade than a swing trade.

 

And if the premise was that the trend line did not hold up, than my personal opinion is that - the markets are rarely so neat and tidy - it was enough that the trend was up, but needed more than 17 prices on the downside to prove that idea wrong.

 

:2c:

 

Hope no offence taken if it sounded overly critical - just looking at the numbers there at face value.

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clmacdougall    11

clmacdougall
Posted

Karoshiman, why are you choosing to trade the far less liquid dow future, when you could trade the emini s&p instead? Do you find there is something you like about the dow in specific when compared to the nasdaq, emini S&P or even the russell?

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karoshiman    10

karoshiman
Posted
Karoshiman, why are you choosing to trade the far less liquid dow future, when you could trade the emini s&p instead? Do you find there is something you like about the dow in specific when compared to the nasdaq, emini S&P or even the russell?

 

 

Liquidity is not an issue at the current stage of my account size.

 

What I like about YM compared to ES is the granularity of it ($5 tick size vs. $12.5).

 

I like to trade NQ as well (like I did in this journal several times), but I do not expect a big move of NQ to the upside, whereas I see that in YM/ES.

 

I tried to have a look at the Russell, but to be honest, up to now, I had some issues with the data. The charts did not show properly. But I will look into TF.

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clmacdougall    11

clmacdougall
Posted
Okay, re-enter YM long at 14,351... seems the down move was only a stop-run. Price back above last intraday confluence zone with high volume.

 

It tested the previous low of 14308 from a few days back. In my opinion it came too close to previous support before being bought up again. Another punch through that zone and you could see a wild ride to the downside!! Keep your eyes open for sure!!

 

All the best! Cory

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karoshiman    10

karoshiman
Posted
It tested the previous low of 14308 from a few days back. In my opinion it came too close to previous support before being bought up again. Another punch through that zone and you could see a wild ride to the downside!! Keep your eyes open for sure!!

 

All the best! Cory

 

 

Will do! ... Thank you!

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karoshiman    10

karoshiman
Posted
Great call and a wise decision for sure!

 

... not in hindsight... but you never know...

 

I'm currently thinking about trying to benefit more from the shorter term fluctuations, i.e. holding my positions only 1-3 days instead of several days or longer as there are more opportunities, I think (also, to lose money, of course ;) ). Need to make up my mind about that.

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karoshiman    10

karoshiman
Posted
Your original concept of a weakening upmove is I think the context to look at the market in. This top is volatile with a wide range, could signal a change in the opposite direction.

 

 

You are right, this may very well have to do with this. Although, I would expect an even wider range for a top of this kind.

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