Swing Trading Futures

[karoshiman 10]

Out of YM long pos. at 13,855 (March) with a loss.

[clmacdougall 11]

Out of YM long pos. at 13,855 (March) with a loss.

 

Good thing! The markets falling fast.

[karoshiman 10]

Long in Corn at 687.875 (May). Potential double bottom.

[clmacdougall 11]

Long in Corn at 687.875 (May). Potential double bottom.

 

If you don't mind me asking, are most of your swing entries based upon classical TA? By that I mean basic chart patterns?

[karoshiman 10]

If you don't mind me asking, are most of your swing entries based upon classical TA? By that I mean basic chart patterns?

 

 

I don't mind

 

Yes, they are. It's plain and simple. I think that often people try to overcomplicate things and at the end they don't see the wood for the trees... although, I am not yet happy with my results. I'm leaning towards taking some profits early in order to reduce my risk faster.

[clmacdougall 11]

I don't mind

 

Yes, they are. It's plain and simple. I think that often people try to overcomplicate things and at the end they don't see the wood for the trees... although, I am not yet happy with my results. I'm leaning towards taking some profits early in order to reduce my risk faster.

 

I agree with your argument somewhat. Oversimplification is just as dangerous though but it does remedy our ego and expectation when we fail.

Have you read "Trade What You See" by Pesavento. It will start you on the path of defining basic patterns objectively. I think you will find it very valuable and recommend it.

 

Cory

[karoshiman 10]

I agree with your argument somewhat. Oversimplification is just as dangerous though but it does remedy our ego and expectation when we fail.

Have you read "Trade What You See" by Pesavento. It will start you on the path of defining basic patterns objectively. I think you will find it very valuable and recommend it.

 

Cory

 

 

You are right. However, I am sometimes surprised how some traders on these forums analyze (or better: rationalize) individual trades so extensively and argue with others about these. Each individual trade is only one data point of many...

 

Thank you for the book suggestion. Will check it out!

[karoshiman 10]

Covered 50% of Long in Corn at 698.125 (May) with a profit.

[karoshiman 10]

Short YM at 13,980 (March). Downward trend channel could develop here. Usually not my style, but I take a shot.

[clmacdougall 11]

Short YM at 13,980 (March). Downward trend channel could develop here. Usually not my style, but I take a shot.

 

Consider studying the geometry of wolfe waves as a potential pattern to add to your arsenal, it may keep you out of early entry and help your specificity for price targets and stops. Or maybe you've already heard of it.

[karoshiman 10]

Added to YM short at 14,059 (March). Stupid early entry this afternoon... cobbler, stick to your last...

[karoshiman 10]

Consider studying the geometry of wolfe waves as a potential pattern to add to your arsenal, it may keep you out of early entry and help your specificity for price targets and stops. Or maybe you've already heard of it.

 

 

Thanks. Had to google these. From what I've understood about them, I'm not sure how they would have helped me here... can you explain?

 

My mistake earlier was, that I've used a pattern before it was even established... :crap:

[clmacdougall 11]

Thanks. Had to google these. From what I've understood about them, I'm not sure how they would have helped me here... can you explain?

 

My mistake earlier was, that I've used a pattern before it was even established... :crap:

 

Because you believe in the predictive nature of chart patterns, I felt it might be of some help to point you in the direction of more specific setups, with regards to definition.Wolfe waves seem great for that with great risk to reward potential. Look it up here on TL, you may enjoy it.

You've got a great psychology for this game, you get right back in the ring. All the best, Cory

[karoshiman 10]

Covered long pos. in Corn at 703.5 (May) with a profit.

[karoshiman 10]

Covered YM short pos. at 14,101 (March) with a loss.

[karoshiman 10]

Trying a long now in YM at 14,107 (March).

[karoshiman 10]

Out of YM long pos. at 14,057 (March) with a loss as recent confluence zone has been pierced.

[karoshiman 10]

Equity markets currently building a major top, IMO. Strong sell-off into the close. Broadening form. on YM (today only stop run). (attached DJIA chart)

[karoshiman 10]

ES in downward trend.

 

NDX broke trend line.

[karoshiman 10]

Based on the above again short in YM from 14,037 (March). This is not a Deja Vu...

[karoshiman 10]

Out of YM short pos. at 14,244 with a loss. Long from 14,251 due to flag on hourly today (continuation indicated).

[clmacdougall 11]

ES in downward trend.

 

NDX broke trend line.

 

I wonder about the usefulness of trendlines or channels. A pseudo science for sure. I studied them extensively and have found them to be of no value. They remove simplicity and try to replace it with a false sense of context. We've all been force fed their legitimacy for sure. Perhaps you get more from them than I've learned to.

[karoshiman 10]

I wonder about the usefulness of trendlines or channels. A pseudo science for sure. I studied them extensively and have found them to be of no value. They remove simplicity and try to replace it with a false sense of context. We've all been force fed their legitimacy for sure. Perhaps you get more from them than I've learned to.

 

 

Agree. I find (usually) their break more useful than their continued validity. However, a "trend channel" is nothing more than higher/lower highs and higher/lower lows, which basically defines a trend. But I agree that it doesn't have to be so "clean" along a trend line.

 

My mentioning of them regarding ES and NDX was more meant as a context to show that these 2 behave differently than YM. Obviously (now ), ES and NDX provided the "false signals" here.

 

This whole YM trades of mine show beautifully how markets do trick people. I think most people behaved like me. Otherwise, this up move wouldn't have been possible (shorts covering their positions). I was right with my very first assessment of YM, but got caught up in the - admittedly strong - day-to-day fluctuations, which for me, are unusual for bull markets.

 

I still do believe that we are near a top. But for the time being, markets "want" to go up...

[karoshiman 10]

Out of YM long pos. at 14,378 (March) with a profit.

[clmacdougall 11]

Out of YM long pos. at 14,378 (March) with a profit.

 

:applaud::applaud::thumbs up:!!! Way to go, good call. All the best on the weekend.