Swing Trading Futures

[karoshiman 10]

Do you have any profit/stop targets you are presently holding?

 

 

If we go back up to this week's open, this trade is not valid anymore IMO and a long position would be appropriate.

 

This down move can still be only the pullback everyone (except me, earlier ) was waiting for, before the up move is resumed. I see potential for the shorts down to the 13,500-ish area, but might scale out earlier.

[karoshiman 10]

Hi Karo,

 

I appreciate the sentiment of this thread - swing trading is increasingly of interest to me (very short-term background) particularly since I re-read Jessie Livermore + Stanley Kroll books.

 

I don't like to clog up someone else's thread, but I'd like to share a few of my favourite quotes from Kroll & Livermore...

 

"The experts are frequently wrong. A good technical approach to investing and timing, coupled with sound money management and a focus on trend following rather than trend predicting, are really the recommended ways to operate for optimum success."

ed: It is so true that analysts like to wheel out explanations for large market moves long after the fact became apparent on the chart isn't it?

 

"Every time you take a with-the-trend position, you should premise that you are in for a mega-move. By so doing, you will be encouraged to hold the position and not look for short-term trades. Let your stops take you out of those trades which fizzle"

ed: With this in mind, I think it really should be no surprise if the swing trader takes several small losses to every winner.

 

"Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market your game is to buy and hold until you believe that the bull market is near its end. To do this you must study general conditions and not tips or special factors affecting individual stocks."

Ed: And with that last one I'd simply like to give my very general thoughts, like Mr Partridge did in Jessie Livermores books, on the major stock index futures.

 

Displaying FDAX here, but FESX, ES would show the same story

 

http://s17.postimage.org/nyw96313h/FDAX_UP.png

 

I ask myself - what would Jessie do? Would he try and pick a top here on account of the bearish Fed Statement last night about curbing QE?

No, I believe he would be looking to buy simply on account of the path of least resistance being to the upside!

 

 

Hi Lastninja,

 

Thank you for the quotes!

 

I liked the "Reminiscences..." book about JL very much, but still have to read his own book.

 

Didn't hear yet about S. Kroll. Which one of his books do you recommend? Saw on Amazon that he published a few.

 

The FDAX chart looks tempting for a long... price "resting" just above a former confluence zone. A nice trade from a risk reward perspective.

 

But I do not agree, that ES or YM look similar. On these, you see some space until the next support zone (around 13,500 for YM IMO, see attached).

 

So, I do not try to copy JL's trading style as I try to trade the pullback here (which could also develop to something more, of course) ... one man's trend is another man's pullback...

 

I do agree that I mix up my trades a bit. Sometimes I try to get the bigger moves (which up to now did not work yet ... but, on the other hand, only 3 months have passed since the start of this thread) and sometimes I look for the "smaller" moves. Today's markets are behaving (currently, at least) different compared to the time, when JL made (and lost) his fortune. Unfortunately, big trends seem to not occur too often these days.

 

Cheers,

k

[karoshiman 10]

 

...

 

 

 

Lastninja,

 

Here is an interesting article supporting your view...

 

AM: Testing support at 1500 » CrackedMarket

[clmacdougall 11]

Are you out of your short position due to the late in the day upmove?

[lastninja2 10]

Thanks for the blog link - it was an interesting read.

I actually agree with you that ES and YM look like they could easily pullback for another few days and take out some weak longs who panic on the back of the FOMC Minutes.

 

I think you are brave with your YM and hope it works out for you - but - taking my queues from Jessie Livermore / Kroll, I guess my personal preference would be to sit on the sidelines and wait for a nice opportunity to go long.

 

If that means I make no trades because the markets are not trending nicely... so be it

If that means ES starts to rally from 1500 and I miss the trade because I was hoping for 1450... so be it

 

The book is called Dragons and Bulls. It's fairly short, very similar style to livermore.

 

GL

[karoshiman 10]

Are you out of your short position due to the late in the day upmove?

 

No, still in it. Though, it is a bit scary...

[karoshiman 10]

 

...

 

If that means I make no trades because the markets are not trending nicely... so be it

If that means ES starts to rally from 1500 and I miss the trade because I was hoping for 1450... so be it

 

...

 

 

 

I like that attitude

 

Are you trading also other instruments, than FDAX, ES, etc.?

 

Thanks for the book title!

[karoshiman 10]

Out of YM short at 13947 (March) with a loss.

[karoshiman 10]

Long now in YM from 13,907 (March).

[lastninja2 10]

I place bids and offers pre-emptively in areas where I believe there will be a stop run. Then if/when I'm in the trade I pray for a swift retracement.

 

But becoming increasingly fascinated by the arm-chair analysis of daily charts/conditions as per Livermore.

 

http://s15.postimage.org/l0npetdqh/scenario_2.png

 

Fingers crossed for scenario #2

 

"Mad props" for posting live trades on a public forum.

[clmacdougall 11]

Long now in YM from 13,907 (March).

 

What's your stop on that one?

[karoshiman 10]

What's your stop on that one?

 

 

We shouldn't fall back below 13,900

[clmacdougall 11]

Be careful of a late friday sell off. If you're in profit, why not just close your position and reenter on sunday night. Just my .

[lastninja2 10]

http://s8.postimage.org/qnc96unxx/partridge.png

 

I'll play the devil on his other shoulder.

 

might start communicating only through the medium of jessie livermore book quotes now :rofl:

[clmacdougall 11]

http://s8.postimage.org/qnc96unxx/partridge.png

 

I'll play the devil on his other shoulder.

 

might start communicating only through the medium of jessie livermore book quotes now :rofl:

 

Fair enough, who truly knows what's going to happen next!!.:haha:

[karoshiman 10]

Haha... 2 devils on my shoulders...

 

Yes, who knows what happens... but currently, it looks promising...

 

I remember this quote from Partridge Should have reminded myself of that before taking the short for the pullback... liquidating the long was okay, but going short right afterwards was maybe a bit too much.

 

However, as it seems that this was the move to shake out the weak longs (myself included!) and price now continuing higher, scenario #2 looks more probable.

[clmacdougall 11]

Haha... 2 devils on my shoulders...

 

Yes, who knows what happens... but currently, it looks promising...

 

I remember this quote from Partridge Should have reminded myself of that before taking the short for the pullback... liquidating the long was okay, but going short right afterwards was maybe a bit too much.

 

However, as it seems that this was the move to shake out the weak longs (myself included!) and price now continuing higher, scenario #2 looks more probable.

 

Good call!!! Have a great weekend!!

[slick60 10]

I use Trade Station for forex. I do not have a futures account on it as I am a Canadian and I cannot trade futures with them in the United States. Bloody crazy.

I use Trade Station to drive Dynamic Trader which gives me the information to make the attached posted chart of the DX.

 

http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/7ef8e796-ebe5-4336-963d-a6d9e8ff794c/2013-02-22_0517.png

 

I would like someone to assist me with a data file from Trade Station futures. I would like the CL crude contract and the GC gold contract for 5-10 years if possible to do a Delta Phenomenon solution on those instruments to post on this thread.

In order to assist one would import an "ELD" indicator into TS called dtts, put it into a daily chart of each and it will make the file.

Simple as that.

C A N---- A N Y B O D Y---- H E L P----- P L E A SE ! ! !

OR will anybody help.

Thank you very much.

Please send me a PM or contact me on Skype if you are willing to assist.

 

slick60

[lastninja2 10]

http://s11.postimage.org/5vjgqwmvl/UK_loses_AAA.png

[karoshiman 10]

http://s11.postimage.org/5vjgqwmvl/UK_loses_AAA.png

 

Hi Ninja,

 

Do you trade FTSE futures? If so, who is your broker?

 

Regards,

k

[lastninja2 10]

Haven't traded Z in a long time.

Possibly did it via Velocity Futures or AMP Futures

Currently with Alpari US

[karoshiman 10]

Long Japanese Yen at 1.0648 (March). Looks like opening gap is being closed. Intermediate bottom forming? (high vol.)

[karoshiman 10]

Cover long in Jap. Yen at 1.0714 (March) with a profit.

[clmacdougall 11]

Sticking with your long YM or getting second thoughts?

[karoshiman 10]

Sticking with your long YM or getting second thoughts?

 

 

Definitely second thoughts... but still in... guess I'm not the only one who thought it should not go below 13,900... could be a stop run... (... I hope! )