Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

If you don't mind me asking, are most of your swing entries based upon classical TA? By that I mean basic chart patterns?

 

 

I don't mind :)

 

Yes, they are. It's plain and simple. I think that often people try to overcomplicate things and at the end they don't see the wood for the trees... although, I am not yet happy with my results. I'm leaning towards taking some profits early in order to reduce my risk faster.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I don't mind :)

 

Yes, they are. It's plain and simple. I think that often people try to overcomplicate things and at the end they don't see the wood for the trees... although, I am not yet happy with my results. I'm leaning towards taking some profits early in order to reduce my risk faster.

 

I agree with your argument somewhat. Oversimplification is just as dangerous though but it does remedy our ego and expectation when we fail.

Have you read "Trade What You See" by Pesavento. It will start you on the path of defining basic patterns objectively. I think you will find it very valuable and recommend it.

 

Cory

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I agree with your argument somewhat. Oversimplification is just as dangerous though but it does remedy our ego and expectation when we fail.

Have you read "Trade What You See" by Pesavento. It will start you on the path of defining basic patterns objectively. I think you will find it very valuable and recommend it.

 

Cory

 

 

You are right. However, I am sometimes surprised how some traders on these forums analyze (or better: rationalize) individual trades so extensively and argue with others about these. Each individual trade is only one data point of many...

 

Thank you for the book suggestion. Will check it out!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Short YM at 13,980 (March). Downward trend channel could develop here. Usually not my style, but I take a shot.

 

Consider studying the geometry of wolfe waves as a potential pattern to add to your arsenal, it may keep you out of early entry and help your specificity for price targets and stops. Or maybe you've already heard of it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Consider studying the geometry of wolfe waves as a potential pattern to add to your arsenal, it may keep you out of early entry and help your specificity for price targets and stops. Or maybe you've already heard of it.

 

 

Thanks. Had to google these. From what I've understood about them, I'm not sure how they would have helped me here... can you explain?

 

My mistake earlier was, that I've used a pattern before it was even established... :crap:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thanks. Had to google these. From what I've understood about them, I'm not sure how they would have helped me here... can you explain?

 

My mistake earlier was, that I've used a pattern before it was even established... :crap:

 

Because you believe in the predictive nature of chart patterns, I felt it might be of some help to point you in the direction of more specific setups, with regards to definition.Wolfe waves seem great for that with great risk to reward potential. Look it up here on TL, you may enjoy it.

You've got a great psychology for this game, you get right back in the ring. All the best, Cory

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
ES in downward trend.

 

NDX broke trend line.

 

I wonder about the usefulness of trendlines or channels. A pseudo science for sure. I studied them extensively and have found them to be of no value. They remove simplicity and try to replace it with a false sense of context. We've all been force fed their legitimacy for sure. Perhaps you get more from them than I've learned to.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I wonder about the usefulness of trendlines or channels. A pseudo science for sure. I studied them extensively and have found them to be of no value. They remove simplicity and try to replace it with a false sense of context. We've all been force fed their legitimacy for sure. Perhaps you get more from them than I've learned to.

 

 

Agree. I find (usually) their break more useful than their continued validity. However, a "trend channel" is nothing more than higher/lower highs and higher/lower lows, which basically defines a trend. But I agree that it doesn't have to be so "clean" along a trend line.

 

My mentioning of them regarding ES and NDX was more meant as a context to show that these 2 behave differently than YM. Obviously (now :) ), ES and NDX provided the "false signals" here.

 

This whole YM trades of mine show beautifully how markets do trick people. I think most people behaved like me. Otherwise, this up move wouldn't have been possible (shorts covering their positions). I was right with my very first assessment of YM, but got caught up in the - admittedly strong - day-to-day fluctuations, which for me, are unusual for bull markets.

 

I still do believe that we are near a top. But for the time being, markets "want" to go up...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Similar Content

    • By adamal7
      Hello guys,
      I'm starting to swing trade commodities, especially soft commodities (corn, sugar, coffee, cotton, soybean, ...). I'm also checking gold and oil.
      My problem is I'd like to know what is the best broker for trading those markets (regulated, large commodity choice) ? For CFD trading.
      I'm thinking of IC MARKETS who are very good with forex and have good trading conditions.
      The concern I have is that I need a broker that offers MT4 as a platform, and also I'd like to be able to open mini lots positions for a better risk management.
      As a swing trader, I'm less concerned by the spread but looking at the financing fees.
      Wish you have a nice day, and thanks in advance.
      Alexandre.
  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 31st March 2025.   Trump Confirms Tariffs on All Countries, Sending Stocks Lower.   The NASDAQ continues to trade lower due to the US confirming the latest tariffs will be on all countries. In addition to this, bearish volatility also is largely due to the higher inflation data from Friday. The NASDAQ declines to its lowest price since September 11th 2024. Core PCE Price Index - Inflation Increases Again! The PCE Price Index read 2.5% aligning with expert forecasts not triggering any alarm bells. However, the Core PCE Price Index rose from 0.3% to 0.4% MoM and from 2.7% to 2.8% YoY, signalling growing inflationary pressure. This increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain elevated interest rates for an extended period. The NASDAQ fell 2.60% due to the higher inflation reading which is known to pressure the stock market due to pressure on consumer demand and a more hawkish Federal Reserve. Boston Fed President Susan Collins recently commented that tariffs could drive up inflation, though the long-term impact remains uncertain. She told journalists that a short-term spike is the most probable outcome but believes the current pause in monetary policy adjustments is appropriate given the prevailing uncertainties. Although, certain investment banks such as JP Morgan actually believe the Federal Reserve will be forced into cutting rates. This is due to expectations that the economy will struggle under the new trade policy. For example, JP Morgan expects the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts but will quickly cut towards the end of 2025. Market Risk Appetite Takes a Hit! A big factor for the day is the drop in the risk appetite of investors. This can be seen from the VIX which is up almost 6%, Gold which is trading 1.30% higher and the Japanese Yen which is the day’s best performing currency. Most safe haven assets, bar the US Dollar, increase in value. It is also worth noting that all indices are decreasing in value during this morning's Asian session with the Nikkei225 and NASDAQ witnessing the strongest decline. Previously the stock market rose in value as investors heard rumours that tariffs would only be on certain countries. This bullish swing occurred between March 14th and 25th. Over the weekend, President Donald Trump indicated that the upcoming tariffs would apply to all countries, not just those with the largest trade imbalances with the US. NASDAQ - Technical Analysis In terms of technical analysis, the NASDAQ continues to obtain indications that sellers control the price action. The price opens on a bearish price gap measuring 0.30% and trades below all Moving Averages on all timeframes. The NASDAQ also trades below the VWAP and almost 100% of the most influential components (stocks) are declining in value.     The next significant support level is at $18,313, and the resistance level stands at $20,367.95. Key Takeaway Points: NASDAQ falls to its lowest since September 2024 as the US confirms tariffs on all countries, adding to inflation concerns. Core PCE inflation rises to 0.4% MoM and 2.8% YoY, increasing the likelihood of prolonged high interest rates. Investor risk appetite drops as VIX jumps 6%, gold gains 1.3%, and safe-haven assets outperform. NASDAQ shows strong bearish momentum, trading below key technical levels with support at $18,313 and resistance at $20,367.95. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • PM Philip Morris stock, top of range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?PM
    • EXC Exelon stock, nice range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?EXC
    • UTZ Utz Brands stock, watch for a bottom breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?UTZ
    • FL Foot Locker stock, nice breakdown follow through at https://stockconsultant.com/?FL
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.