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I don't watch news - let alone trade it - just saw the jump in NG up and the break down of QM... natural gas storage change with a downward surprise... good to be long NG and short QM :) ... but we'll have to see whether this is only a short spike...

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Been out of my QMF short at 86.40 with a profit and wait now for the big move. So far (i.e. since the beginning of this thread) my QM trades are about breakeven due to the stupid flipping at the beginning. Waiting for the big move to overcompensate that.

 

I am flat NGH too and not so sure anymore about my long scenario. The next two weeks will be crucial for the mid-term direction. Had my largest losses so far in NG and wait for the big move here as well similar to QM.

 

By the way, my Soybean trade is my best one so far (and the only one where I have been right, right from the start). Still long here. Will add on pull-backs.

 

On Silver waiting for consolidation to finish. No position currently.

 

EDIT: Trying a short in NGH at 3.508. Looks like my original scenario (break of trend line) is playing out.

Edited by karoshiman

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Went short in Sugar at 18.46. Breakout of pennant on weekly chart.

 

 

I'm betting against Peter Brandt here :)

 

He just tweeted his long bias in Sugar (see chart).

 

I saw this wedge on the daily as well, but obviously weighted the longer-term view with the pennant breakout more. Gonna be interesting... :)

A-VgGELCEAAxS14.jpg-large.thumb.jpeg.e2a137a3b99cd55d0dae3a05293a6d1a.jpeg

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I'm betting against Peter Brandt here :)

 

He just tweeted his long bias in Sugar (see chart).

 

I saw this wedge on the daily as well, but obviously weighted the longer-term view with the pennant breakout more. Gonna be interesting... :)

 

Hi Karoshiman,

 

I'm assuming that you have read Brandt's book? If not, then I recommend it - very practical and realistic account of how small gains are made over the long haul, rather than the usual fantastical results and dubious conclusions. Plus he has a long and auditable track record as a CTA.

 

Good luck with the sugar position - I'm sure your victory will be sweet!

 

BlueHorseshoe

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Hi Karoshiman,

 

I'm assuming that you have read Brandt's book? If not, then I recommend it - very practical and realistic account of how small gains are made over the long haul, rather than the usual fantastical results and dubious conclusions. Plus he has a long and auditable track record as a CTA.

 

Good luck with the sugar position - I'm sure your victory will be sweet!

 

BlueHorseshoe

 

 

Hi BlueHorseshoe,

 

No, I haven't. But it's on my list of trading books to read. I saw, it has mostly good reviews and I liked what the reviewers wrote about the book (similar to what you say about it). Also, I am a fan of his blog and I'm following the updates there on a regular basis.

 

Re. the Sugar position, I had also a short interaction with him on Twitter as I replied to his tweet about my Sugar short position. Interestingly, I've searched for historical Sugar charts on the net this week and found articles of him from Jan. 2012 in which he already forecasted a Sugar bull market. Seems to be an opinion, he has for some time now.

 

By the way, I went out of my short position today as price scratched too long at the downward trend line. Possible that this was premature and I go short again this week.

 

Regards,

k

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