Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

I don't watch news - let alone trade it - just saw the jump in NG up and the break down of QM... natural gas storage change with a downward surprise... good to be long NG and short QM :) ... but we'll have to see whether this is only a short spike...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Been out of my QMF short at 86.40 with a profit and wait now for the big move. So far (i.e. since the beginning of this thread) my QM trades are about breakeven due to the stupid flipping at the beginning. Waiting for the big move to overcompensate that.

 

I am flat NGH too and not so sure anymore about my long scenario. The next two weeks will be crucial for the mid-term direction. Had my largest losses so far in NG and wait for the big move here as well similar to QM.

 

By the way, my Soybean trade is my best one so far (and the only one where I have been right, right from the start). Still long here. Will add on pull-backs.

 

On Silver waiting for consolidation to finish. No position currently.

 

EDIT: Trying a short in NGH at 3.508. Looks like my original scenario (break of trend line) is playing out.

Edited by karoshiman

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Went short in Sugar at 18.46. Breakout of pennant on weekly chart.

 

 

I'm betting against Peter Brandt here :)

 

He just tweeted his long bias in Sugar (see chart).

 

I saw this wedge on the daily as well, but obviously weighted the longer-term view with the pennant breakout more. Gonna be interesting... :)

A-VgGELCEAAxS14.jpg-large.thumb.jpeg.e2a137a3b99cd55d0dae3a05293a6d1a.jpeg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm betting against Peter Brandt here :)

 

He just tweeted his long bias in Sugar (see chart).

 

I saw this wedge on the daily as well, but obviously weighted the longer-term view with the pennant breakout more. Gonna be interesting... :)

 

Hi Karoshiman,

 

I'm assuming that you have read Brandt's book? If not, then I recommend it - very practical and realistic account of how small gains are made over the long haul, rather than the usual fantastical results and dubious conclusions. Plus he has a long and auditable track record as a CTA.

 

Good luck with the sugar position - I'm sure your victory will be sweet!

 

BlueHorseshoe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi Karoshiman,

 

I'm assuming that you have read Brandt's book? If not, then I recommend it - very practical and realistic account of how small gains are made over the long haul, rather than the usual fantastical results and dubious conclusions. Plus he has a long and auditable track record as a CTA.

 

Good luck with the sugar position - I'm sure your victory will be sweet!

 

BlueHorseshoe

 

 

Hi BlueHorseshoe,

 

No, I haven't. But it's on my list of trading books to read. I saw, it has mostly good reviews and I liked what the reviewers wrote about the book (similar to what you say about it). Also, I am a fan of his blog and I'm following the updates there on a regular basis.

 

Re. the Sugar position, I had also a short interaction with him on Twitter as I replied to his tweet about my Sugar short position. Interestingly, I've searched for historical Sugar charts on the net this week and found articles of him from Jan. 2012 in which he already forecasted a Sugar bull market. Seems to be an opinion, he has for some time now.

 

By the way, I went out of my short position today as price scratched too long at the downward trend line. Possible that this was premature and I go short again this week.

 

Regards,

k

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Similar Content

    • By adamal7
      Hello guys,
      I'm starting to swing trade commodities, especially soft commodities (corn, sugar, coffee, cotton, soybean, ...). I'm also checking gold and oil.
      My problem is I'd like to know what is the best broker for trading those markets (regulated, large commodity choice) ? For CFD trading.
      I'm thinking of IC MARKETS who are very good with forex and have good trading conditions.
      The concern I have is that I need a broker that offers MT4 as a platform, and also I'd like to be able to open mini lots positions for a better risk management.
      As a swing trader, I'm less concerned by the spread but looking at the financing fees.
      Wish you have a nice day, and thanks in advance.
      Alexandre.
  • Topics

  • Posts

    • DELL Dell Technologies stock, good day moving higher off the 90.99 double support area, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?DELL
    • MCK Mckesson stock, nice trend and continuation breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?MCK
    • lmfx just officially launched their own LMGX token, Im planning to grab a couple of hundred and maybe have the option to stake them. 
    • Date: 2nd April 2025.   Market on Edge: Tariff Announcement and Volatility Ahead!   The US economic and employment data continues to deteriorate with the job vacancies figures dropping to a 5-month low. In addition to this, the IMS Manufacturing PMI also fell below expectations. However, both the US Dollar and Gold declined simultaneously following the release of the two figures, an uncommon occurrence in the market. Traders expect a key factor to be today’s ‘liberation day’ where the US will impose tariffs on imports. USDJPY - Traders Await Tariff Confirmation! Traders looking to determine how the USDJPY will look today will find it difficult to determine until the US confirms its tariff plan. Today is the day when Trump previously stated he would finalize and announce his tariff plan. The administration has not yet released the policy, but investors expect it to be the most expansionary in a century. President Trump is due to speak at 20:00 GMT. On HFM's Calendar the speech is stated as "US Liberation Day Tariff Announcement". Currently, analysts are expecting Trump’s Tariff Plan to impose tariffs on the EU, chips and pharmaceuticals later today as well as reciprocal tariffs. Economists have a good idea of how these tariffs may take effect, but reciprocal tariffs are still unspecified. In addition to this, 25% tariffs on the car industry will start tomorrow. The tariffs on the foreign cars industry are a factor which will particularly impact Japan. Although, traders should note that this is what is expected and is not yet finalised. Last week, President Trump stated that he would implement retaliatory tariffs but allow exemptions for certain US trade partners. Treasury Secretary Mr Bessent and National Economic Council Director Mr Hassett suggested that the restrictions would primarily target 15 countries responsible for the bulk of the US trade deficit. However, yesterday, Trump contradicted these statements, asserting that additional duties would be imposed on any country that has implemented similar measures against US products. The day’s volatility will depend on which route the US administration takes. The harshness of the policy will influence both the Japanese Yen as well as the US Dollar.   USDJPY 5-Minute Chart   US Economic and Employment Data The JOLT Job Vacancies figure fell below expectations and is lower than the previous month’s figure. The JOLT Job Vacancies read 7.57 million whereas the average of the past 6 months is 7.78 million. The ISM Manufacturing Index also fell below the key level of 50.00 and was 5 points lower than what analysts were expecting. The data is negative for the US Dollar, particularly as the latest release applies more pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. However, this is unlikely to happen if the trade policy ignites higher and stickier inflation. In the Bank of Japan’s Governor's latest speech, Mr Ueda said that the tariffs are likely to trigger higher inflation. USDJPY Technical Analysis Currently, the Japanese Yen Index is the worst performing of the day while the US Dollar Index is more or less unchanged. However, this is something traders will continue to monitor as the EU session starts. In the 2-hour timeframe, the USDJPY is trading at the neutral level below the 75-bar EMA and 100-bar SMA. The RSI and MACD is also at the neutral level meaning traders should be open to price movements in either direction. On the smaller timeframes, such as the 5-minute timeframe, there is a slight bias towards a bullish outcome. However, this is only likely if the latest bearish swing does not drop below the 200-Bar SMA.     The key resistant level can be seen at 150.262 and the support level at 149.115. Breakout levels are at 149.988 and 149.674. Key Takeaway Points: Job vacancies hit a five-month low, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI missed expectations, adding pressure on the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions. Traders await confirmation on Trump’s tariff policy, which is expected to impact the EU, chips, pharmaceuticals, and foreign car industries. The severity of the tariffs will influence both the JPY and the USD, with traders waiting for final policy details. The Japanese Yen Index is the worst index of the day while the US Dollar Index is unchanged. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • HLF Herbalife stock, watch for a bull flag breakout above 9.02 at https://stockconsultant.com/?HLF
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.