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In Search of the Elusive Bottom
By
PristineTrading, in The Markets
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By AdrianaLowe
The theme over this last trading week has been one of remarkable resilience. After breaking down from key resistance levels, it seemed that a period of consolidation would follow. But, globally, markets instead rallied with conviction to retest their highs.
I have been sceptical about the sustainability of the rally this year. But one of the most fundamental axioms of surviving the markets is to trade what you see, not what you believe. And what I am seeing is markets that seem to want to push higher across the board, with individual stocks holding up well even when faced with bearish news.
S&P 500
(credit: chart from Sigma by Hydra X)
The S&P closed the week strongly at 2,822.48, up 0.5% on high volume, and on the back of its biggest weekly gain since November 2018. US markets seem insistent on forging a path higher despite the overhang of earnings, macro economy news, North Korea, and ongoing China trade talks. I still wait for price to break and close clear of the congestion zone around 2,800 before entering longs, but this looks increasingly like a environment where the only rational positions to take are either to be flat or long.
MICROSOFT
(credit: chart from Sigma by Hydra X)
Gains this week were led by tech, with the sector surging 4.9%, and also becoming the best performing sector of 2019. I find MSFT interesting, having completed a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern, rallying in a tight rising channel, and strongly testing resistance (and also its all-time highs) on high volume. But a spinning top candlestick in the midst of overhead resistance, and a bearish stochastic crossover which in overbought territory could translate into a pullback, which could provide interesting entries for longs.
TESLA
(credit: chart from Sigma by Hydra X)
A good litmus test for market sentiment is how stocks behave on news. Tesla has held on to $275 support despite its Model Y unveiling event underwhelming analysts; BAML, CFRA Research and Canaccord Genuity all issued cautionary notes. If it gets there, $260 looks to be strong support for a countertrend rally.
BOEING
(credit: chart from Sigma by Hydra X)
Boeing continued to suffer the aftermath of the latest tragedy, ultimately having to suspend its entire fleet of 737 MAX planes when the FAA finally followed the lead of global aviation authorities in grounding the plane. Deliveries of the 737 MAX have also been paused. The beleaguered company faces an indeterminate outcome from investigations, bills from airlines affected by the grounding of the plane, as well as potential suits from the families of victims. On Thursday, the US Air Force joined the party. It launched a blistering attack on Boeing, saying that the company has a ‘severe situation’ after flawed inspections of their KC-46 air refuelling tanker aircraft, and questioning the company’s ‘culture of discipline for safety’. [https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/14/politics/air-force-boeing-refueling-plane/index.html] Despite all this, the stock has proven remarkably well supported at $370, repeatedly rallying from those levels on high volume.
FACEBOOK
(credit: chart from Sigma by Hydra X)
No company has had a worse week than FB, even within the context of its bad year. The week started with a proposal by Senator Elizabeth Warren to break up FB, was followed by a network outage affecting its Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram services, and then announcements of a widening federal criminal probe into its data sharing practices. Two key executives, Chris Cox and Chris Daniels also announced their departures from the company. A nadir was reached when its Facebook application was used to livestream the hate-driven massacre of 49 people in New Zealand.
Technically, the stock has broken below the bottom of its ascending channel, and key overhead resistance in the $170-173 region looks daunting. There is also a huge gap from Feb 2019 waiting to be closed.
Yet in spite of the weak technical picture and the deluge of negative news, FB closed just 2.13% down for the week, and ended the trading session on Friday well above the lows of the day, forming a bullish hammer. While I have been waiting for a clear break in one direction or the other for a while, as rising channel met overhead resistance, I choose to stay as interested spectators for now.
EUR/USD
(credit: chart from Sigma by Hydra X)
Finally, last week I noted the technical breakdown of key support levels in the EURUSD, in conjunction with fundamentally bearish news in the form of Draghi’s dovish speech. However, I was keen to stay on the sidelines, given past experience of how crowded trades tend to turn out. EURUSD didn’t disappoint, as it promptly rose in a stop-hunting rally, which would have trapped any short entries in a very uncomfortable position.
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By HFblogNews · Posted
Date: 4th April 2025. USDJPY Falls to 25-Week Low as Safe Havens Surge and Markets Eye NFP Data. Safe haven currencies and the traditional alternative to the US Dollar continue to increase in value while the Dollar declines. Investors traditionally opt to invest in the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc at times of uncertainty and when they wish to avoid the Dollar. The Japanese Yen continues to be the best-performing currency of the week and of the day. Will this continue to be the case after today’s US employment figures? USDJPY - NFP Data And Trade Negotiations The USDJPY is currently trading at a 25-week low and is witnessing one of its strongest declines this week. The exchange rate is no longer obtaining indications from the RSI that the price is oversold. The current bullish swing is obtaining indications of divergence as the price fails to form a higher high. Therefore, short-term momentum is in favour of the US Dollar, but there are still signs the Japanese Yen can regain momentum quickly. USDJPY 1-Hour Chart The price movement of the exchange rate in both the short and long term will depend on 3 factors. Today’s US employment data, next week’s inflation rate and most importantly the progress of negotiations between the US and trade partners. If today’s Unemployment Rate increases above 4.1%, the reading will be the highest seen so far in 2025. Currently, the market expects the Unemployment Rate to remain at 4.1% and the Non-Farm Payroll Change to add 137,000 jobs. The average NFP reading this year so far has been 194,000. If data does not meet expectations, US investors may continue to increase exposure away from the Dollar and to other safe-haven assets. Previously investors were expecting only 2 rate cuts this year from the Federal Reserve, however, most investors now expect up to 4. If today’s employment data deteriorates, economists advise the Federal Reserve may opt to cut interest rates sooner. Therefore, it is important to note that today’s NFP will influence the USDJPY to a large extent. Whereas in the longer-term, trade negotiations will steal the spotlight. If trade partners are able to negotiate the US Dollar can correct back upwards. Whereas, if other countries retaliate and do not negotiate the US Dollar will remain weak. USDJPY - The Yen and the Bank of Japan The Japanese Yen is the best-performing currency in 2025 increasing by 6.70% so far. Risk indicators such as the VIX and High-Low Indexes continue to worsen which is positive for the JPY as a safe haven currency. Yesterday Japan released March business activity data that came in weaker than expected: the Services PMI dropped from 53.7 to 50.0, while the Composite PMI fell from 52.0 to 48.9. The data is the lowest in two years. These figures could hinder further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. However, most economists still expect the Bank Of Japan to hike at least once more. It's also important to note, that even if the BOJ opts for a prolonged pause, a cut is not likely. Additionally, a 24% tariff was imposed on Japanese exports to the US yesterday. Prime Minister Mr Ishiba expressed disappointment over Japan's failure to secure a tariff exemption and pledged support measures to help domestic industries manage the impact. Key Takeaway Points: US Dollar Weakens, Safe Havens Rise: The Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc continue to gain as investors shift away from the US Dollar. USDJPY Under Pressure: USDJPY trades at a 25-week low, with short-term momentum favouring the Dollar but long-term trends pointing to potential Yen strength. NFP and Unemployment Crucial: Today’s Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment figures will heavily influence short-term USDJPY. On the other hand, trade negotiations will dictate longer-term trends. Japan Faces Mixed Signals: Despite weak PMI data and new US tariffs, the Japanese Yen remains strong. Economists expect at least one more rate hike from the Bank of Japan, but no cuts are in sight. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
By Stocks4life · Posted
YUM Yum Brands stock, nice breakout with volume +34.5%, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?YUM -
By HFblogNews · Posted
Date: 3rd April 2025. Gold Prices Pull Back After Record High as Traders Eye Trump’s Tariffs. Key Takeaways: Gold prices retreated after hitting a record high of $3,167.57 per ounce due to profit-taking. President Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all US imports, escalating trade tensions. Gold remains exempt from reciprocal tariffs, reinforcing its safe-haven appeal. Investors await US non-farm payroll data for further market direction. Fed rate cut bets and weaker US Treasury yields underpin gold’s bullish outlook. Gold Prices Retreat from Record Highs Amid Profit-Taking Gold prices saw a pullback on Thursday as traders opted to take profits following a historic surge. Spot gold declined 0.4% to $3,122.10 per ounce as of 0710 GMT, retreating from its fresh all-time high of $3,167.57. Meanwhile, US gold futures slipped 0.7% to $3,145.00 per ounce, reflecting broader market uncertainty over economic and geopolitical developments. The recent rally was largely fueled by concerns over escalating trade tensions after President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping new import tariffs. The 10% baseline tariff on all goods entering the US further deepened the global trade conflict, intensifying investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold. However, as traders locked in gains from the surge, prices saw a modest retracement. Trump’s Tariffs and Their Market Implications On Wednesday, Trump introduced a sweeping tariff policy imposing a 10% baseline duty on all imports, with significantly higher tariffs on select nations. While this move was aimed at bolstering domestic manufacturing, it sent shockwaves across global markets, fueling inflation concerns and heightening trade war fears. Gold’s Role Amid Trade War Escalations Despite the widespread tariff measures, the White House clarified that reciprocal tariffs do not apply to gold, energy, and ‘certain minerals that are not available in the US’. This exemption suggests that central banks and institutional investors may continue favouring gold as a hedge against economic instability. One of the key factors supporting gold is the slowdown that these tariffs could cause in the US economy, which raises the likelihood of future Federal Reserve rate cuts. Gold is currently in a pure momentum trade. Market participants are on the sidelines and until we see a significant shakeout, this momentum could persist. Impact on the US Dollar and Bond Yields Gold prices typically move inversely to the US dollar, and the latest developments have pushed the dollar to its weakest level since October 2024. Market participants are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate cut, as the tariffs could weigh on economic growth. Additionally, US Treasury yields have plummeted, reflecting growing recession fears. Lower bond yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it a more attractive investment. Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch Gold’s recent rally has pushed it into overbought territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70. This indicates a potential short-term pullback before the uptrend resumes. The immediate support level lies at $3,115, aligning with the Asian session low. A further decline could bring gold towards the $3,100 psychological level, which has previously acted as a strong support zone. Below this, the $3,076–$3,057 region represents a critical weekly support range where buyers may re-enter the market. In the event of a more significant correction, $3,000 stands as a major psychological floor. On the upside, gold faces immediate resistance at $3,149. A break above this level could signal renewed bullish momentum, potentially leading to a retest of the record high at $3,167. If bullish momentum persists, the next target is the $3,200 psychological barrier, which could pave the way for further gains. Despite the recent pullback, the broader trend remains bullish, with dips likely to be viewed as buying opportunities. Looking Ahead: Non-Farm Payrolls and Fed Policy Traders are closely monitoring Friday’s US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, which could provide critical insights into the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. A weaker-than-expected jobs report may strengthen expectations for an interest rate cut, further boosting gold prices. Other key economic data releases, such as jobless claims and the ISM Services PMI, may also impact market sentiment in the short term. However, with rising geopolitical uncertainties, trade tensions, and a weakening US dollar, gold’s safe-haven appeal remains strong. Conclusion: While short-term profit-taking may trigger minor corrections, gold’s long-term outlook remains bullish. As global trade tensions mount and the Federal Reserve leans toward a more accommodative stance, gold could see further gains in the months ahead. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
By Stocks4life · Posted
AMZN Amazon stock, nice buying at the 187.26 triple+ support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?AMZN -
By Stocks4life · Posted
DELL Dell Technologies stock, good day moving higher off the 90.99 double support area, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?DELL
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