Doom and Gloom ???

[GlassOnion 12]

so, this is what i think is going to happen:

 

1) Greece. Greece will get it's new bailout, but it's not going to have a very lasting effect. i doubt it will have an effect at all, actually. the trend it clear - the more austerity Greece takes on, the higher the unemployment. over 25% (1/4 of the country!) is the end of the game. bailouts (money) will not help. money don't create jobs. jobs are created via labor demand which is created via product demand. if there is no labor demand it is pretty much obvious that there is no product demand either... that's where the danger is and there is nothing we can do about it...

 

2) Spain. well, pretty much the same picture. 2 major differences - Spain is yet to ask for a bailout and when they do it will boost markets for a little while. but 25% unemployment and regional political instability (some regions in Spain wish to part and are subject to revolts!) makes Spain a very dangerous EU member... Spanish bond yields are climbing to 6% and once they've passed this number i think Spain will ask for a bailout. it all depends what other news will dominate. so far i'm seeing worsening statistics. when they were positive (like that 7,8% (or 7,9%?) unemployment in US) the markets were beaten down by extremely heavy manipulations through direct monetary involvement and mass media. now those stats are becoming much weaker primarily in other than USA counties. US is continuing to show some stability (i don't want to call it "improvement")...

 

3) euro vs usd. there is a currency war going on, only the blind cannot see it. the goal is to bring the dollar down as much as possible. but it's Obama who screwed it up when he (absolutely directly!) manipulated the oil price on the 17th of September 2012! absolute direct manipulation by the president of the USA! if you call a statement about releasing the oil reserve anything else but price manipulation - i'd like to hear it. after this very moment the markets sank. and there is a reason - much lesser trust. QE3 is another failure. frankly i find QEs a one huge fraud. that money was stolen! it is not in the economy, it is somewhere rotating the banking system! no loans - the money is simply going to the stock market... thus the bull run of 2009-2012... but you look at the housing charts, at wages, at disposable income, at unemployment and you'll see - not much progress! even the unemployment is likely just the sign of migration! people migrate back to Latin America, Mexico, Canada, you name it...

 

4) Germany. i should say the EU, but Germans dominate. Germany is getting weaker and will eventually (rather soon) see it's GDP at 0,0. that will force Germans to push the ECB to cut IR. and that will force the euro down and dollar up! how will the FED react? it can't... expand the QE3? possible. but we're having the debt ceiling issue and the fiscal cliff dead ahead! there cannot be increases in QE3. there can be Twist2 (or is it 3 already?) but will it help? of course not...

 

5) the US. why won't it help? because of the demand. the dollar is meant to be down for two reasons - inflation and exports. and while it is not hard to inflate (or even hyperinflate) it is going to be impossible to export! because your buyers are broke, they don't have any money. what are you gonna do if there is no demand?! and who's your primary client? - the EU! the same EU that is pretty much in a coma state... the dollar has no other way to go but higher... and that'll have all imaginable consequences - exports drop, less demand, more firing, more unemployment, and even lesser demand, more mortgage walks, falling prices, more layoffs, more businesses going under... you get the picture - massive deflation.

 

6) and here comes the fiscal cliff... this is what it is FISCAL CLIFF ...in short - it's unavoidable. short term bullish sign would be postponing the cliff. trying to come to a consensus and especially trying to touch the taxes - is suicidal... if investors get the hint that taxes will be raised even 1% they will immediately draw the money from the stocks for sole purpose of paying less income taxes, and that alone will crash the market! not raising taxes should make the middle class very angry because the rich should pay more taxes, it's common sense... if the rich get another slack the middle won't be happy because they understand that it is bad for the budget... it is very likely that they will cut military spendings to the point of no or minor damage to the industry and at the same time enough of a showoff. i'd say not more than 50bln, and only temporarily because there is a war coming...

 

7) Iran (and the whole region for that matter)... there will be a war, i'm sure of it. and it's not a healthy war! it is sick actually. US' external policies are always just vomitingly sick! with the new war the US will not be able to cut military spendings much and for too long. actually cutting them is no better than continuing them! because it's the question of a lot of jobs. tens of thousands... the military machine in the US is so huge they could have taken over Mars if somebody was living there. it's dis-proportionally huge to its means... and cutting it even a little bit will result in a certain kickback. so obviously cutting big and for long isn't an option... if you can't cut it you have to come up with an excuse for it. how? with a war... there is no alternative...

 

8) China. when the freefall process starts it will ultimately drag China into it. and China is a huge producer. a small drop in demand will result in big drop in Chinese exports. a bigger drop in demand will crash the Chinese industries (ultimately crashing Australian markets to the floor!...). the Chinese have some maneuverability - there is a lot they can do, but just like with the US the question is - what can they do if there is no demand? EU is a major buyer. no EU - who's gonna buy?.. and the island dispute with Japan doesn't help neither side...

 

9) Japan. pretty much the same issue of demand. worse - the Japanese have no maneuverability! IR at 00, QEs continue... there isn't much the Japanese can do though they do manage to remain humane towards their fellow citizens during harsh times...

 

 

However - it is very likely that we will see the last bull run before this happens. and it'll be based on the following:

 

Greece and Spain each getting bailed out in the coming 2-3 weeks. Fiscal cliff is likely to be postponed, though it is hard to predict how far out. the debt ceiling issue is due february so they might either postpone it till then or have a much longer delay. they may also make some cuts, probably in military spendings. i think something like 50bln will do - it's enough to say "look, we're doing something!" and it's not enough to damage the industry... talks about raising taxes is an absolute no-no! raising taxes is a very bad idea right now and i think Obama was placed (not elected) for the reason of cooperating with the rich in this (even if you heard him say otherwise in his campaign... talk is cheap and Obama makes no decisions what so ever. especially in politics...). by the way the debt ceiling is not a big issue either! but it is likely that markets will start to shrink right before it. reason - what's the option? - default or raise the ceiling. of course they will raise it. say to 20trl... that will consequently result in an immediate USA downgrade from the S&P, Moodies, and so on... i don't think it is the point of collapse though. i believe the spark must come from the most troubled, and the most troubled is Europe. but it can also come from Asian countries, for example Australia or Japan. ...it's not easy, as you may imagine, to pinpoint the location and timing, but the location doesn't matter so much. it won't be States that's for sure. the States will actually perform well. look at today's (core) retail sales for example. down, right? remember Sandy? it's simply a temporary delay. next time it comes out it will probably be much, much better. and what's for timing - i give it maximum 6 months before markets die. meaning not AFTER 6 months - meaning sometime DURING the next 6 month... most likely by the end of 1st Q 2013...

[MightyMouse 12]

so, this is what i think is going to happen:

 

1) Greece. Greece will get it's new bailout, but it's not going to have a very lasting effect. i doubt it will have an effect at all, actually. the trend it clear - the more austerity Greece takes on, the higher the unemployment. over 25% (1/4 of the country!) is the end of the game. bailouts (money) will not help. money don't create jobs. jobs are created via labor demand which is created via product demand. if there is no labor demand it is pretty much obvious that there is no product demand either... that's where the danger is and there is nothing we can do about it...

 

2) Spain. well, pretty much the same picture. 2 major differences - Spain is yet to ask for a bailout and when they do it will boost markets for a little while. but 25% unemployment and regional political instability (some regions in Spain wish to part and are subject to revolts!) makes Spain a very dangerous EU member... Spanish bond yields are climbing to 6% and once they've passed this number i think Spain will ask for a bailout. it all depends what other news will dominate. so far i'm seeing worsening statistics. when they were positive (like that 7,8% (or 7,9%?) unemployment in US) the markets were beaten down by extremely heavy manipulations through direct monetary involvement and mass media. now those stats are becoming much weaker primarily in other than USA counties. US is continuing to show some stability (i don't want to call it "improvement")...

 

3) euro vs usd. there is a currency war going on, only the blind cannot see it. the goal is to bring the dollar down as much as possible. but it's Obama who screwed it up when he (absolutely directly!) manipulated the oil price on the 17th of September 2012! absolute direct manipulation by the president of the USA! if you call a statement about releasing the oil reserve anything else but price manipulation - i'd like to hear it. after this very moment the markets sank. and there is a reason - much lesser trust. QE3 is another failure. frankly i find QEs a one huge fraud. that money was stolen! it is not in the economy, it is somewhere rotating the banking system! no loans - the money is simply going to the stock market... thus the bull run of 2009-2012... but you look at the housing charts, at wages, at disposable income, at unemployment and you'll see - not much progress! even the unemployment is likely just the sign of migration! people migrate back to Latin America, Mexico, Canada, you name it...

 

4) Germany. i should say the EU, but Germans dominate. Germany is getting weaker and will eventually (rather soon) see it's GDP at 0,0. that will force Germans to push the ECB to cut IR. and that will force the euro down and dollar up! how will the FED react? it can't... expand the QE3? possible. but we're having the debt ceiling issue and the fiscal cliff dead ahead! there cannot be increases in QE3. there can be Twist2 (or is it 3 already?) but will it help? of course not...

 

5) the US. why won't it help? because of the demand. the dollar is meant to be down for two reasons - inflation and exports. and while it is not hard to inflate (or even hyperinflate) it is going to be impossible to export! because your buyers are broke, they don't have any money. what are you gonna do if there is no demand?! and who's your primary client? - the EU! the same EU that is pretty much in a coma state... the dollar has no other way to go but higher... and that'll have all imaginable consequences - exports drop, less demand, more firing, more unemployment, and even lesser demand, more mortgage walks, falling prices, more layoffs, more businesses going under... you get the picture - massive deflation.

 

6) and here comes the fiscal cliff... this is what it is FISCAL CLIFF ...in short - it's unavoidable. short term bullish sign would be postponing the cliff. trying to come to a consensus and especially trying to touch the taxes - is suicidal... if investors get the hint that taxes will be raised even 1% they will immediately draw the money from the stocks for sole purpose of paying less income taxes, and that alone will crash the market! not raising taxes should make the middle class very angry because the rich should pay more taxes, it's common sense... if the rich get another slack the middle won't be happy because they understand that it is bad for the budget... it is very likely that they will cut military spendings to the point of no or minor damage to the industry and at the same time enough of a showoff. i'd say not more than 50bln, and only temporarily because there is a war coming...

 

7) Iran (and the whole region for that matter)... there will be a war, i'm sure of it. and it's not a healthy war! it is sick actually. US' external policies are always just vomitingly sick! with the new war the US will not be able to cut military spendings much and for too long. actually cutting them is no better than continuing them! because it's the question of a lot of jobs. tens of thousands... the military machine in the US is so huge they could have taken over Mars if somebody was living there. it's dis-proportionally huge to its means... and cutting it even a little bit will result in a certain kickback. so obviously cutting big and for long isn't an option... if you can't cut it you have to come up with an excuse for it. how? with a war... there is no alternative...

 

8) China. when the freefall process starts it will ultimately drag China into it. and China is a huge producer. a small drop in demand will result in big drop in Chinese exports. a bigger drop in demand will crash the Chinese industries (ultimately crashing Australian markets to the floor!...). the Chinese have some maneuverability - there is a lot they can do, but just like with the US the question is - what can they do if there is no demand? EU is a major buyer. no EU - who's gonna buy?.. and the island dispute with Japan doesn't help neither side...

 

9) Japan. pretty much the same issue of demand. worse - the Japanese have no maneuverability! IR at 00, QEs continue... there isn't much the Japanese can do though they do manage to remain humane towards their fellow citizens during harsh times...

 

 

However - it is very likely that we will see the last bull run before this happens. and it'll be based on the following:

 

Greece and Spain each getting bailed out in the coming 2-3 weeks. Fiscal cliff is likely to be postponed, though it is hard to predict how far out. the debt ceiling issue is due february so they might either postpone it till then or have a much longer delay. they may also make some cuts, probably in military spendings. i think something like 50bln will do - it's enough to say "look, we're doing something!" and it's not enough to damage the industry... talks about raising taxes is an absolute no-no! raising taxes is a very bad idea right now and i think Obama was placed (not elected) for the reason of cooperating with the rich in this (even if you heard him say otherwise in his campaign... talk is cheap and Obama makes no decisions what so ever. especially in politics...). by the way the debt ceiling is not a big issue either! but it is likely that markets will start to shrink right before it. reason - what's the option? - default or raise the ceiling. of course they will raise it. say to 20trl... that will consequently result in an immediate USA downgrade from the S&P, Moodies, and so on... i don't think it is the point of collapse though. i believe the spark must come from the most troubled, and the most troubled is Europe. but it can also come from Asian countries, for example Australia or Japan. ...it's not easy, as you may imagine, to pinpoint the location and timing, but the location doesn't matter so much. it won't be States that's for sure. the States will actually perform well. look at today's (core) retail sales for example. down, right? remember Sandy? it's simply a temporary delay. next time it comes out it will probably be much, much better. and what's for timing - i give it maximum 6 months before markets die. meaning not AFTER 6 months - meaning sometime DURING the next 6 month... most likely by the end of 1st Q 2013...

 

No offense. Your analysis seems to have come from watching cable news while drinking pints of beer with angry conservatives, occasionally distracted by a nice ass.

 

The fiscal cliff is a tool that will be used to force changes on an uncooperative congress. It will look ugly, feel ugly, and result in an awesome low to take long term longs from in the equity markets. Taxes will be raised for a segment of the population, but the well represented will be given a peace offering to offset the tax increase. The increased tax will be absorbed by the poorly represented. The sooner congress agrees to increase taxes, the sooner the the low will be put in. No doubt this market can be shorted for the next weeks.

 

The bull market of 2009 to 2012 has shown no signs of ending. A dip is not a sign of ending. It's just a dip. One needs to review how a bull market ends to make a call that a bull market is ending. Interest rates remain low. Inflation is not a factor, and earnings are stable to growing. It is easy or safe to assume that there will be further earnings growth. Oddly enough, the market will rise again in spite of higher tax rates.

 

The most fruitful part of bar room discussion are the distractions.

[Obsidian 10]

...

Iran (and the whole region for that matter)... there will be a war, i'm sure of it. and it's not a healthy war! it is sick actually. US' external policies are always just vomitingly sick! with the new war the US will not be able to cut military spendings much and for too long. actually cutting them is no better than continuing them! because it's the question of a lot of jobs. tens of thousands...

 

the military machine in the US is so huge they could have taken over Mars if somebody was living there.

 

first part..I totally disagree

 

second part..hmm this sounds possible

[bobcollett 10]

Hi Glass Onion

Nice post. Your views dont necessarily tie up with mine, but you still deserve a thank you.

My primary view is manipulation of the dollar .

The dollar has to get weaker to bring back the jobs, and the Fed is trying its hardest to weaken the dollar, though its seldom mentioned.

After all the QE's,why is inflation minimal?

The rest of the world is still supporting the dollar because they hold so many dollars.

And they cant dump dollars because they will lose too much .

Yesterday even strong Australia was selling AUS$ and buying US$.

So the Fed is failing in its manipulation.

I dont know what else they can do, but something has to break.

regards

bobc

[Mysticforex 13]

first part..I totally disagree

 

second part..hmm this sounds possible

 

I am not a "Doom and Gloomer". That being said, I saw a worrying report last nite on CNN. ( 11/14/12 )Wolf was interviewing the Israeli ambassador to the UN. Apparently missiles are being launched everyday from Gaza into southern Israel. Israel retailiated with a strike, and is putting army reserve units on standby.

[johnw 10]

I am not a "Doom and Gloomer". That being said, I saw a worrying report last nite on CNN. ( 11/14/12 )Wolf was interviewing the Israeli ambassador to the UN. Apparently missiles are being launched everyday from Gaza into southern Israel. Israel retailiated with a strike, and is putting army reserve units on standby.

 

Things have been placed on hold until after the US election and now that time has arrived.

 

Little attention has been paid to the changing of the guard in China and yet the impact of this event is far more reaching.

[Patuca 13]

No offense. Your analysis seems to have come from watching cable news while drinking pints of beer with angry conservatives, occasionally distracted by a nice ass.

 

The fiscal cliff is a tool that will be used to force changes on an uncooperative congress. It will look ugly, feel ugly, and result in an awesome low to take long term longs from in the equity markets. Taxes will be raised for a segment of the population, but the well represented will be given a peace offering to offset the tax increase. The increased tax will be absorbed by the poorly represented. The sooner congress agrees to increase taxes, the sooner the the low will be put in. No doubt this market can be shorted for the next weeks.

 

The bull market of 2009 to 2012 has shown no signs of ending. A dip is not a sign of ending. It's just a dip. One needs to review how a bull market ends to make a call that a bull market is ending. Interest rates remain low. Inflation is not a factor, and earnings are stable to growing. It is easy or safe to assume that there will be further earnings growth. Oddly enough, the market will rise again in spite of higher tax rates.

 

The most fruitful part of bar room discussion are the distractions.

you liberal socialistic buzzard...the only reason USA doesn't have soup lines right now is because of food stamps (16.5 million were added to foodstamps in the first 3 years of Mr O..total on foodstamps 44.7 million and rising....that is a 59% increase), otherwise, people would be lined up in lines right now. it will get worse..we won't see any daylight out of this recession/depression until 2017...to 2018. you better go buy yourself some gold and silver mighty mouse or you may end up eating rats...:haha: :rofl: Edited November 16, 2012 by Patuca

[Patuca 13]

Hi Glass Onion

Nice post. Your views dont necessarily tie up with mine, but you still deserve a thank you.

My primary view is manipulation of the dollar .

The dollar has to get weaker to bring back the jobs, and the Fed is trying its hardest to weaken the dollar, though its seldom mentioned.

After all the QE's,why is inflation minimal?

The rest of the world is still supporting the dollar because they hold so many dollars.

And they cant dump dollars because they will lose too much .

Yesterday even strong Australia was selling AUS$ and buying US$.

So the Fed is failing in its manipulation.

I dont know what else they can do, but something has to break.

regards

bobc

Captain Bob you are correct. If feds keep pushing dollar down SOONER or LATER the Asians will dump the dollar, as will others. When the pain gets too bad ..it is like a Stop loss..they will opt out. That is when the sh$t will hit the fan as the big elephant economic engine of the USA staggers and stumbles and falls. .....Please see picture for better explanation.

[MightyMouse 12]

you liberal socialistic buzzard...the only reason USA doesn't have soup lines right now is because of food stamps (16.5 million were added to foodstamps in the first 3 years of Mr O..total on foodstamps 44.7 million and rising....that is a 59% increase), otherwise, people would be lined up in lines right now. it will get worse..we won't see any daylight out of this recession/depression until 2017...to 2018. you better go buy yourself some gold and silver mighty mouse or you may end up eating rats...:haha: :rofl:

 

You judge the usa by the # of people on food stamps?

[Mysticforex 13]

Most of the currency wars we have had in the past ( 2 large ones ) have been waged by a small group of nations. Now we have the US, desperate to keep the $$ weak to encourage exports. The EU in the same boat, wanting a cheap Euro to improve their economies.

Japan, Very desperate for a cheap yen to drive their product/consumer driven economy and a couple of wildcards throw into the mix: China, Russia, and the emerging nations of India and Brazil.

[johnw 10]

Captain Bob you are correct. If feds keep pushing dollar down SOONER or LATER the Asians will dump the dollar, as will others. When the pain gets too bad ..it is like a Stop loss..they will opt out. That is when the sh$t will hit the fan as the big elephant economic engine of the USA staggers and stumbles and falls. .....Please see picture for better explanation.

 

The key to cleverness lies in the timing, not in the sweeping assumption ... please remember that in order to 'dump' the dollar, somebody must buy something in return

... gold, recapitalization ..stocks indices ... other currencies, there is always another side to the transaction.

 

I am not bearish on the US, infact quite the opposite.... firstly the wash-out of debt must continue for another say five years, with the bottom of the trough forming 2013.

 

Gradually robotics will return work to US in order to reduce labour and transaction costs, whilst shale oil will perform a bridge as a fresh approach to energy is sort ... I am not a great fan of wind and solar power since main stream generation must be maintained given that wind does not always blow nor does the sun always shine.

 

However robotics and shale together will reduce the balance of payment problems, together with the growing notion that consumerism is not the best driver for the economy.

 

There are only four economies of any real size in the world US, Europe, China, Japan with the prospect of India becoming the fifth and if you are in a dreamy mood you could call Lat Am number six.

Each of these groups is facing enormous problems, not to mention the added childish notion of "let us weaken the currency and export our way out of our problems."

Weaken against what? I ask and how long do you expect to get away with it.

 

Leaving aside the current very popular approach of muddling about as debt is washed gradually away and Countries are now half way through a lost decade or more .... there is another approach to consider, and that is to grow the economy.

 

While this is stating the obvious, it is hard to do and requires clarity of thought and good leadership.

Of the five or six economic groups, the one that is best placed to take advantage of the opportunities is The US, even although this is not readily apparent at present.

The other groups all have daunting internal problems to come to grips with first before they can move on and these problems will entertain them for many years.

 

This is why I am bullish on The US.

For example, when Japan devalues the yen, it will present both China and S. Korea with years and years of problems, in China's case the problem may become much much larger if US kindly lends Japan a helping hand (which it will)

 

The one thing about living on this planet with seven billion people is that every day is a new day ... assumptions are made with great authority, change is promised, rhetoric replaces commitment and technology marches on ... it is the greatest show and I wouldn't want to miss it.

[DbPhoenix 42]

But this time it's different...

 

Db

[johnw 10]

But this time it's different...

 

Db

 

gm DbP,

 

IMO, the future is always different, even when we are repeating the same mistakes.

 

Where I think the confusion lies is in our perception of what is realistically achievable and what is just plain nonsense.

Our ability to over quote the benefits of action and understate costs must have the rest of the galaxy ROTFLMAO .... I do not imagine that this tendency is about to change.

 

If The US is to gain an advantage over the other Trading Blocs whilst they are busily distracted by larger internal struggles .. then I do not image that it will resemble The US of bygone days.

Some people may enjoy it, many will feel out of place and all the younger people will know no other world.

You might say "what is different about that" but I feel that everything must be viewed in the overall context of 'progress'

 

My bullishness for The US is not an absolute, it is merely relative to my thoughts on the likely performances of the other Blocs .... or to put it another way I think that the negative effects of US politics are likely to be less damaging than those in the other Blocs in the next couple of decades.

[DbPhoenix 42]

The future may be different in the details, but that's about it. And while I enjoy the whining of the Republicans in particular and, in general, the whining of those who want everything but aren't willing to pay for anything, I'm content to let it all play out.

 

We are well into the second generation of those who have become addicted to debt and they don't know any other way. They'll either adapt or they won't. It will be interesting to see who does and how many.

 

Db

[Obsidian 10]

I am not a "Doom and Gloomer". That being said, I saw a worrying report last nite on CNN. ( 11/14/12 )Wolf was interviewing the Israeli ambassador to the UN. Apparently missiles are being launched everyday from Gaza into southern Israel. Israel retailiated with a strike, and is putting army reserve units on standby.

 

they have been like that since I was a kid I guess

[DbPhoenix 42]

Israel's been fighting with somebody or other since 1947.

 

*yawn*

 

Db

[SIUYA 11]

I attended a seminar about 18months ago (http://www.magellangroup.com.au/magellan-investment-briefing-recordings/) - there were some interesting stats about how quickly the US could fix a lot its problems if it actually increased corporate (hidden taxes) just slightly and also at the same time, reduced its medical spending (and not by cutting programs but by not subsidizing the crazy insurance schemes and the large drug companies)

Radical I know.....but taking any politics out of it (if you can), it was fascinating to see that by small tweaks in the percentages, a lot of cash could be freed up - and it would most likely result in people not really missing out on anything.

So I too am bullish the US as the prettiest ugly duckling.

 

As a starting point

Comparative effectiveness research - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

and when it comes to comparing tax rates - remember its only on what you declare as profit in that country. As the UK is finding out, if the money is effectively not made - there is no tax on it! (an example: CBI Boss Calls For Reform Of Offshore Tax)

 

Its a whole other can of worms, one that is fraught with danger, lies, those things called statistics and emotional politics......but i thought i would bring it up anyway.

[Obsidian 10]

a "voluntary" $200 donation to Fed would solve everything maybe...500million population*$200...hmmmm....

[MightyMouse 12]

It is from the embers of bad economic times that growth and prosperity emerge. I won't fall short of calling anyone stupid who thinks that current US policy is being shaped so that things get worse. Whoever is teaching you this is someone who either doesn't know how to play the game, is disengaged, or is deliberately attempting to mislead you. Misinformation is costly.

[zdo 20]

I am stupid

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[enough chars yet?]

[SIUYA 11]

yes - there is the distinct difference between, what is happening, what can be done to fix it, and what is currently being done, and then there is still the question of which is the ugliest girl in the room and do you just leave for another venue, or drink more to make them prettier.(does this make you more or less stupid?)

[DbPhoenix 42]

I attended a seminar about 18months ago (Magellan Investment Briefing – Recordings | Magellan Financial Group Australia | Boutique Investment Funds (Global Fund, Infrastructure Fund & Flagship Fund) Management) - there were some interesting stats about how quickly the US could fix a lot its problems if it actually increased corporate (hidden taxes) just slightly and also at the same time, reduced its medical spending (and not by cutting programs but by not subsidizing the crazy insurance schemes and the large drug companies)

Radical I know.....but taking any politics out of it (if you can), it was fascinating to see that by small tweaks in the percentages, a lot of cash could be freed up - and it would most likely result in people not really missing out on anything.

 

One might hope that the public would eventually figure out that they aren't ahead by relying on for-profit insurance companies and employer-provided coverage since it all must be paid for one way or another through higher prices and higher premiums. But they aren't likely to figure it out any time soon. Thus we will eventually have the same type healthcare provision that other major countries have, perhaps by making Medicare available to everyone and giving people the choice of that or private insurance. Those who want private insurance and can afford it, great. But those are probably more likely to go the concierge route.

 

As for "high taxes", please.

 

Db

[DbPhoenix 42]

Or we could legalize drugs and live off the taxes.

 

Db

[bobcollett 10]

I am stupid

 

Hi zdo,

WE KNOW

 

Sorry I could not resist this.

kind regards

bobc

[johnw 10]

The straight forward way to address medicare is by adopting a policy of healthcare ... in other words focus attention on becoming and maintaining a healthy state of both body and mind.

This would eliminate a large chunk of medicare spending.

 

Mind you it would require bringing obesity out of the shadows and into the spotlight.

 

All it requires is brave leadership.