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Rande Howell

The Blind Spot in a Trader's Review Mirror

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Why Your Mind Goes AWOL at the Very Time You Need It Most

 

“You and your thoughts, you and your beliefs, are not the same.” Rande Howell

 

The Bull in the China Shop

 

“I don’t know why this keeps happening to me. Each morning I start my day with a plan. I know what to look for, I know what to do, and I am confident that I can manage trades effectively. And I have a positive state of mind. But somewhere along the line, I seem to get sucked down a vortex and I start doing things that I know I shouldn’t be doing. I often see this as I am making the mistake – but I do it anyway. Or sometimes I don’t even see the loss of rational thinking until it’s all over. That vortex feels like a black hole that is inescapable and there's nothing I can do about it. It’s crazy – I should be able to handle this. I mean, I know how to trade. I don’t understand it. But it keeps getting the best of me.”

 

Can you identify with this trader’s recollection of a trading day gone bad? This is a story I hear countless times from countless traders. They don’t understand why this meltdown keeps happening, considering how much effort they put into building a strong knowledge base in their trading. With each blow up, they dissect the problem and learn more so that next time it will be different. Then it happens again. And again. It’s like they keep getting ambushed by an invisible enemy that appears, on the surface, to come out of nowhere.

 

Perhaps though, they are blind to the circumstance behind their pattern of self-sabotage. And by looking outside of the self for answers, they remain ignorant of their participation in their own trading failures. They truly are like a bull in a china shop. They keep trying to bull their way through the delicate nature of the relationship between brain, emotion, adaptation, and mind.

 

The problem is the very mind that traders bring to the trading arena – and particularly their lack of understanding of body, brain, emotion, and mind. They are inseparable; and for as long as the trader deceives him- or her-self into believing that the mind exists separately from the brain and emotion (i.e. that your thoughts and beliefs are not rooted into biology and emotion), then they remain a bull in the china shop of trading performance.

 

Living and Perceiving as a Captive to Belief, Rather than Having Beliefs that Represent “You”

 

There is an unexamined assumption that you "have beliefs". If you’ve been trading awhile, you probably have written down your “beliefs” that guide your trading. You read a book and with excitement you exclaim, “Oh! These are the right beliefs to bring to the trading arena! I’ll practice them by affirmation and/or visualization (even in front of a mirror) until they become automatic.” You even work up some emotional energy in order to internalize them. Then, as you trade, you DECLARE your beliefs by writing them down and referring back to them. Next, the same old performance pattern crops up again…and again. This ever happen to you?

 

Back to the bull in the china shop. According to neuro-biology, beliefs are rooted into our adaptive biology. They are constructed by the brain and embedded into the neuro-circuitry as a perceptual map. These are primitive circuits that are woven into your brain/mind’s circuitry for survival value at various stages in the brain’s maturation. Literally, your brain (the “You” you believe yourself to be) is born into historical circumstances where a soup of beliefs (your family system and culture) already exists long before you arrive. And your brain adapts “You” into an organization of self that can survive the environment into which it has been born. It is the circumstance of adaptation that forms the early and primitive belief system into which the brain molds the future you. You do not have beliefs; they have you.

 

This is where your fundamental beliefs about your capacity to manage uncertainty are forged. Your beliefs are rooted into your brain and are biological in nature – they take over your mind. Since your brain is organized around the avoidance of threat (fear of uncertainty), it is no small wonder that you push these pesky beliefs out of the forefront of your awareness and into the shadows of your mind. (What you don’t see can’t hurt you.)

 

Then you organize your life to avoid dealing with uncertainty and cover it up with a mind obsessed with controlling the outcome. And it works….until you start trading. Suddenly a mind constructed to avoid uncertainty and control outcome is thrust into an endeavor (trading) that demands the management of uncertainty and the acknowledgment that there is no certainty - just what your constructed mind has been avoiding since early development and what shaped its direction. And your beliefs about managing uncertainty, pushed into the shadows of your mind by a brain mandated to avoid the fear of uncertainty, is confronted with a reality for which it is not designed.

 

Rebuilding Your Mind for Trading

 

Because the brain evolved to link fear of biological threat with uncertainty (it’s a great survival trait burned into our DNA), a trader has to learn to de-tangle fear from uncertainty if they are to learn to trade effectively. Genetic evolution and adaptation to circumstance conspire against this endeavor. But it can be done, but it takes a powerful motivation to de-construct old patterns of reactivity to uncertainty and take responsibility for training the brain with new effective beliefs about your capacity to manage uncertainty.

 

The place to start is the realization that your reactivity to fear and uncertainty in trading is, in fact, revealing beliefs that are limiting you as a trader. Rather than hiding from these beliefs under the assumption that these beliefs represent you, you recognize that these beliefs are ones that you were born into and represent your history, not “You”. In fact, they represent only one possible organization of the self. And you have the power within you to free yourself from being prisoner to your adaptive historical beliefs and to then design beliefs that lead to good management of uncertainty. It will take some work, but it is certainly possible. You’re simply going to have to commit to self development of yourself as a trader.

 

Fortunately, your brain (in the process of building hardwired programs from which your mind arises) also hardwired into your DNA particular traits needed for the management of uncertainty (I call these hardwired programs Archetypes). These programs are just as real as the self-limiting programs from which your mind has been operating. The problem is that in your mindlessness (the bull in the china shop), you have not developed these parts of the mind. But they are there, waiting to be brought into awareness and to contribute to the committee of the mind. In this scenario, the mind becomes a trading committee where various forces or programs are in competition with one another. Your job, as you awaken to mindfulness, is to become manager of which neural programs contribute to the thoughts and beliefs from which you act. To do this, you have to become mindful and intentional about your thought life.

 

Where Do You Start?

 

In the courses I teach, you start with emotional regulation of the arousal component of an emotion. If your emotions get out of control, you will never get to the door of the mind where beliefs reside. Learning diaphragmatic breathing and tension relaxation in the context of risking capital in trading are fundamental skills for emotional state management. This will not solve the problem, but you will never get to the core of the problem if you can’t manage the intensity of emotional reactivity. This process stops the “getting sucked into the vortex” problem discussed at the beginning of this article.

Next, you have to learn how to step back from the chaos of emotional contagion (getting sucked into a vortex) and be able to observe the mind as a place where thoughts and beliefs are given voice. This is the skill of mindfulness and it is the essential tool used to transform the organization of the mind. It is from mindfulness that you come to realize that you and your thoughts are not the same and that you can have a major say-so in what kinds of thoughts occupy the awareness of the mind. It is the difference between looking in the rear view mirror and seeing what has already happened and living in the now with awareness of what forces in the mind are at play in the moment – essential for peak performance trading.

 

Also in mindfulness, you develop the capacity of stepping back from the vortex attempting to suck you into mindless trading and to intentionally decide which programs, or forces, in the mind are going to be active in your thought life as you trade. This is the difference maker. This is emotional intelligence at work.

 

Fortunately emotional intelligence can be developed (unlike IQ). As you learn to manage your emotional reactiveness, you no longer fear learning about yourself. You realize that you are like the hands drawing themselves in M.C. Escher’s drawing. You are bringing yourself to life. Mistakes are neither bad nor good. They are simply disruptions to the continuity of flow and show you where you need to improve...and your trading account will give you the information you need to know so that you can improve.

 

At the very bottom is the recognition that you and your resistance to change, in fact, are what stand in the way of your trading success. It is here that the battle lines are drawn. Are you willing to change to become the trader you could be? Much like Strider transforming into Aragon in "The Return of the King" (from the Lord of the Rings), it is time to act from courage in the face of your fears.

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Why Your Mind Goes AWOL at the Very Time You Need It Most

 

“You and your thoughts, you and your beliefs, are not the same.” Rande Howell

 

The Bull in the China Shop

 

“I don’t know why this keeps happening to me. Each morning I start my day with a plan. I know what to look for, I know what to do, and I am confident that I can manage trades effectively. And I have a positive state of mind. But somewhere along the line, I seem to get sucked down a vortex and I start doing things that I know I shouldn’t be doing. I often see this as I am making the mistake – but I do it anyway. Or sometimes I don’t even see the loss of rational thinking until it’s all over. That vortex feels like a black hole that is inescapable and there's nothing I can do about it. It’s crazy – I should be able to handle this. I mean, I know how to trade. I don’t understand it. But it keeps getting the best of me.”...

 

Mr. Howell,

 

Thanks for the article and by below comments are for fellow retail traders.

 

I'm a firm believer that retail traders experiencing such should then get help via an in person trading partner (a former client of yours) that no longers have these problems that can then show how to maintain a "positive state of mind" from open to close or from one trading day to the next trading day.

 

Yet, the purpose of the trading partner is not to be a "psychology trader coach" but to be instead like a "compliance officer" to help ensure that lost or state of black hole is not reached...knowing when to recognize it in the problematic trader and telling the trader to call it quits for the day before its no longer manageable. Another way to look at it, this trading partner becomes your eyes into the at home trading environment of the problematic retail trader. Then after trading has stop...that's where you (psychological trader coach) comes into play.

 

In fact, my personal experience with fellow retail traders is that everyone will experience what you've described but only a few will be able get through it on their own. Further, I believe this is one of the primary reasons why most traders are not suitable for trading prior to their first trade...they do not realize these are common issues for retail traders and are not prepare to resolve these issues on their own.

 

If more traders spend just as much time & effort on themselves as a person as they do tinkering with their trade signals...they'll be better traders because their is a strong connection between the mind and success.

Edited by wrbtrader

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Our advantage to all other species on this planet is our ability to reason. It is also our ability to reason that creates bad traders.

 

Are you trying to propose a rational argument against rationality, MM? Isn't that rather like building your house on quicksand?

 

BlueHorseshoe

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Are you trying to propose a rational argument against rationality, MM? Isn't that rather like building your house on quicksand?

 

BlueHorseshoe

 

The opposite, sort of. Our ability to reason also gives us the ability to be irrational.

 

If someone cannot make money trading, It does not mean that "fixing" himself will help him make money trading. "Fixing" himself might help, but it isn't the only solution and it might not be the right solution. I am sure there are plenty perfectly rational people who cannot make money trading. I am also certain that there are plenty irrational people who do make money trading. I might argue that a profitable trader could stop trading if he "fixed" himself.

 

On the other hand a dog doesn't reason so he doesn't have to think about being a dog. Instinctively, he just goes about his dog's life.

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Our advantage to all other species on this planet is our ability to reason. It is also our ability to reason that creates bad traders.

 

MM

 

Reason is highly over rated. Reason emotes out of an emotional state I call impartiality. The problem is that, once comtaminated by fear (or psychological discomfort), impartiality and reason cannot be maintained. Like the JP Morgan traders, who actually believed that they were not having emotions (therefore in reason), impartiality was hijacked by emphoria and they never knew it - until too late.

 

The mind produces an explanation for a decision that the emotional brain has already decided. Believing that it is reason is folly. Learning to manage and observe emotion opens up a whole new world where the observer can learn to re-engineer meaning and emotion. And actually arrive at a reason that is not too comtaminated by the trader's ignorance.

 

Rande Howell

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MM

 

Reason is highly over rated. Reason emotes out of an emotional state I call impartiality. The problem is that, once comtaminated by fear (or psychological discomfort), impartiality and reason cannot be maintained. Like the JP Morgan traders, who actually believed that they were not having emotions (therefore in reason), impartiality was hijacked by emphoria and they never knew it - until too late.

 

The mind produces an explanation for a decision that the emotional brain has already decided. Believing that it is reason is folly. Learning to manage and observe emotion opens up a whole new world where the observer can learn to re-engineer meaning and emotion. And actually arrive at a reason that is not too comtaminated by the trader's ignorance.

 

Rande Howell

 

Precisely!. :)............... - almost ;)

 

"reason" ("rationality" , etc) are always there... always in process at some level of quality ... and it's very easy to degrade it below functional or 'usability' levels

...so wouldn't

"Quality reasoning emerges out of an emotional state I call impartiality."

be slightly more accurate than

"Reason emotes out of an emotional state I call impartiality."

 

and .. another assumption that is being passed around herein is that we are immune from instincts... if only...

...the more that 'cogni' chronically masks and obscures access to 'instincts', the less adaptable and resilient one really is...

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MM

 

Reason is highly over rated. Reason emotes out of an emotional state I call impartiality.

 

Rande Howell

 

Rande, are YOU trying to propose a rational argument against rationality? This is a first year philosophy student trap, where the tutor has a good old chuckle at the foolish undergrads (I once watched a hyper-smart pure maths bloke quibble for a full twenty minutes before admitting defeat) - I would have thought better of you!

 

In all seriousness, you might enjoy Conrad's 'Lord Jim', as it argues a similar point/

 

BlueHorseshoe

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The opposite, sort of. Our ability to reason also gives us the ability to be irrational.

 

If someone cannot make money trading, It does not mean that "fixing" himself will help him make money trading. "Fixing" himself might help, but it isn't the only solution and it might not be the right solution. I am sure there are plenty perfectly rational people who cannot make money trading. I am also certain that there are plenty irrational people who do make money trading. I might argue that a profitable trader could stop trading if he "fixed" himself.

 

On the other hand a dog doesn't reason so he doesn't have to think about being a dog. Instinctively, he just goes about his dog's life.

 

As far as the real world is concerned, I agree (I have never considered how this might apply to trading though). I think most would disagree - people tend to anthropomorphisize animals to a remakable extent. As Terry Eagleton put it, being a good human seems to denote something, whereas being a good toad means nothing - toads are just toad-like.

 

You'd probably really enjoy John Gray's 'Straw Dogs - Thoughts on Humans and Other Animals', and 'Heresies - Against Progress and Other Illusions'. Glancing now at the wikipedia page on Gray, I'm suprised and enthused to notice that Nicholas Talib is a fan . . .

 

John N. Gray - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

BlueHorseshoe

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.........................................................................

 

If more traders spend just as much time & effort on themselves as a person as they do tinkering with their trade signals...they'll be better traders because their is a strong connection between the mind and success.

 

I agree, this game is won by People who train themselves to make good decisions in times of uncertainty and then apply those decisions to the active market.

 

The Brokers will tell you that the survival rate after one year of trading is 1:200 and when you add the number of People who do not open an account, but who commit time and energy (but do not commit themselves) I would hazard a guess and say that the rate drops to something more like 1:500.

 

Or to put it another way ..... of every 100,000 People who venture into Trading, only 200 will survive the learning curve and move on to attempt to become a life long Trader.

 

Please do not excite yourself over these numbers, they only serve to illustrate the Pyramid of Retail Trading.

However, what does a Noobie do when confronted with this stark news.

Do they they say to themselves, I am an average Guy and am not cut out to be one of 200 out of 100,000.

Or do they assume themselves into an image of who they would like to be and push on to join the 99,800 on the scrap heap because they were unprepared to make the changes that the task demanded of them.

 

Which brings me to the point of sound judgment

What is sound judgment and what place (if any) does it play in Trading for a Living

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Research suggests that humans are slowly but surely losing intellectual and emotional abilities

 

 

“magically …. the brutish process of natural selection will be unnecessary.”

 

What a pity I will miss it .... mind you, we have seen this occur with many Politicians during the years of credit expansion.

During the carefree expansionary period, some absolute rubbish was voted into public office at all levels in Western Nations ... the outcome has not been a pretty sight and proving quite difficult to clean up.

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as for natural selection - we voted them in. Mind you other systems dont seem to work either....

 

This was an interesting article abut decision making in the FT.

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=32832&stc=1&d=1352880506

 

 

gm SIUYA,

 

Interesting article thank you, but nothing really new.

However I did pick up on the second to last paragraph ...

 

 

A more unusual discovery about decision-making was made this year by a group of psychologists at the University of Chicago. They found that when people discuss their decisions in a non-native language, irrational biases are reduced. Speaking in a foreign tongue creates a distance between the speaker and their own ideas, helping them be more rational. So companies in which members of the management team communicate mostly in a second language may have an advantage.

 

My Wife and I have lived in predominantly Spanish/Portuguese speaking countries for the last nine years .... these languages were foreign to us when we arrived (French being our second language) and even now our Spanish is social and our Portuguese trails behind that.

There is no way I could have a rational discussion in Spanish without the risk of it being misunderstood.

The outcome though has it's benefits ...

....our unspoken communication skills have improved enormously

....our awareness of just how much time is lost over discussing trivia is acute.

....we are more self reliant than ever.

....and lo mas importante, one of the reasons for coming to Lat Am was because of the time zone so I could teach myself to day trade .....the lack of distraction has helped me focus and has greatly improved my clarity and I notice this difference when we are in English speaking countries.

 

And so, as exhausting as it can be sometimes living amongst a Culture that is foreign to us, it does have it's benefits and I totally agree with the Author of this article..

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gm SIUYA,

 

And so, as exhausting as it can be sometimes living amongst a Culture that is foreign to us, it does have it's benefits and I totally agree with the Author of this article..

 

I hear you - I moved to the UK, and the language is completely foreign. If you ask for anything to be done, or have any request from the government, banks, service personel the first response is a flat out 'no' - its taken me time to adjust and rephrase the question :)

 

On a serious note, while the article has nothing new in it, it still amazes me that many have not thought about their decision making processes, and how that affects a lot of other elements of life - from exhaustion, missing the obvious, big picture stuff.

How often do people go into a restaurant and say "there is too much to choose from, or I dont know what to have"......and then spend wasted time fussing over changing it agonising the decision or whatever....:doh: - just enjoy it.

 

Schools and unis dont often teach us processes of 'how to make a choice' - there are plenty of variations, but not much else - probably why effective self help books are the rage - plus everyone is different of course.....but i digress.

 

One element I thing that certainly overwhelms many new traders is the myriad of supposed choice out there in trading, and too often the choices are made and the rationisations for it are then justified - but little is done in looking at how to make better choices using rational thought (as opposed to emotion - then rational reasoning) . Maybe here in lies the real benefit to automation.

..... random musing at lunch.

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I don’t know why this keeps happening to me. Each morning I start my day with a plan. I know what to look for, I know what to do, and I am confident that I can manage trades effectively. And I have a positive state of mind. But somewhere along the line, I seem to get sucked down a vortex and I start doing things that I know I shouldn’t be doing. I often see this as I am making the mistake – but I do it anyway. Or sometimes I don’t even see the loss of rational thinking until it’s all over. That vortex feels like a black hole that is inescapable and there's nothing I can do about it. It’s crazy – I should be able to handle this. I mean, I know how to trade. I don’t understand it. But it keeps getting the best of me.

 

Rande, I need to point out that some of your anecdotes lose you a lot of readers… maybe they’re readers you don’t want anyway

... example...I am in full agreement with the balance of your article after that opening anecdote . But if this anecdote gives me pause, I can only imagine what some of the smart people do...

 

Check this - "...somewhere along the line..." and "...sometimes I don’t even see the loss of rational thinking until... ", even "...vortex" are more signs of mental fatigue than they are 'archetypal' or even ‘emotional’ issues.

 

Mental / decision fatigue =

“In decision making and psychology, decision fatigue refers to the deteriorating quality of decisions made by an individual, after a long session of decision making.”[1][2] Decision fatigue can lead to a reduced ability to make rational trade-offs, decision paralysis, impulse purchasing, and impaired self-regulation. “Decision fatigue can result not only in fast and careless decisions but even in decision paralysis, where no decision is made at all.”[6] “Each decision you make and the more choices you make throughout the day, the harder it gets for your brain to continue to make decisions. The result is that towards the end of the day when you're low on mental energy, you're more likely to either give in to impulses or avoid making decisions altogether. The worst part is that, often, none of us are aware of how mentally tired we are just from all the little or big choices we make throughout the day.”Newspaper article. “Ego depletion is the idea that self-control or willpower is an exhaustible resource that can be used up.[1] When that energy is low, mental activity that requires self-control is impaired. In other words, expending one's self-control impairs the ability to control oneself later on.”

 

…and yes, I could see where you could build a convincing case that susceptibility to mental fatigue will be greater when the real issues of the article have not been dealt with. In the end, I much prefer your ‘solutions’ to the pop.sike bs fix it quick lists like:

making lists, making important decisions early in the day, positive attitude, keep your glucose levels up, brain games, “positive mood stimulus” yada yada. ... and the trade.sike bs fixes like: stop trading for the day, etc etc... yada yada

 

In my experience, your protocol ultimately does not go nearly far enough in developing toughness because it emphasizes the brains and mind way too much. For example, really thorough trader training works directly with the internal costs of learning to kill. The word “decide” shares Latin etymological roots with “homicide,” meaning “to cut down” or “to kill,” …and loss, in general, looms larger when decision fatigue sets in.

… (;) this final paragraph was a fat pitch, Rande… you should be able to ding / get all of it one with one of your arche’s :spam::) )

 

Zdo

 

 

Deeper decision / mental fatigue reading at

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:QF0VCIiYC8wJ:www.carlsonschool.umn.edu/assets/71712.pdf+decision+fatigue+exhausts+self-regulatory+resources&hl=en&gl=us&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESj-4plSN-h4zNaKqHI8on6iCcOwx48aLwdyf-CGppOpX2WQKGW_SuN9fTJ3cYZ5iXKurPTjmP4RASWv0fSfNBcxpf5zS-EkgQjW5OXVFaez-YAtktUfvAYI05Ifd9jFZALfyN2Z&sig=AHIEtbQ9yPybUka4NrJ-UZLv8NtV18ZEJA

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Rande, I need to point out that some of your anecdotes lose you a lot of readers… maybe they’re readers you don’t want anyway

... example...I am in full agreement with the balance of your article after that opening anecdote . But if this anecdote gives me pause, I can only imagine what some of the smart people do...

 

Check this - "...somewhere along the line..." and "...sometimes I don’t even see the loss of rational thinking until... ", even "...vortex" are more signs of mental fatigue than they are 'archetypal' or even ‘emotional’ issues.

 

Mental / decision fatigue =

“In decision making and psychology, decision fatigue refers to the deteriorating quality of decisions made by an individual, after a long session of decision making.”[1][2] Decision fatigue can lead to a reduced ability to make rational trade-offs, decision paralysis, impulse purchasing, and impaired self-regulation. “Decision fatigue can result not only in fast and careless decisions but even in decision paralysis, where no decision is made at all.”[6] “Each decision you make and the more choices you make throughout the day, the harder it gets for your brain to continue to make decisions. The result is that towards the end of the day when you're low on mental energy, you're more likely to either give in to impulses or avoid making decisions altogether. The worst part is that, often, none of us are aware of how mentally tired we are just from all the little or big choices we make throughout the day.”Newspaper article. “Ego depletion is the idea that self-control or willpower is an exhaustible resource that can be used up.[1] When that energy is low, mental activity that requires self-control is impaired. In other words, expending one's self-control impairs the ability to control oneself later on.”

 

…and yes, I could see where you could build a convincing case that susceptibility to mental fatigue will be greater when the real issues of the article have not been dealt with. In the end, I much prefer your ‘solutions’ to the pop.sike bs fix it quick lists like:

making lists, making important decisions early in the day, positive attitude, keep your glucose levels up, brain games, “positive mood stimulus” yada yada. ... and the trade.sike bs fixes like: stop trading for the day, etc etc... yada yada

 

In my experience, your protocol ultimately does not go nearly far enough in developing toughness because it emphasizes the brains and mind way too much. For example, really thorough trader training works directly with the internal costs of learning to kill. The word “decide” shares Latin etymological roots with “homicide,” meaning “to cut down” or “to kill,” …and loss, in general, looms larger when decision fatigue sets in.

… (;) this final paragraph was a fat pitch, Rande… you should be able to ding / get all of it one with one of your arche’s :spam::) )

 

Zdo

 

 

Deeper decision / mental fatigue reading at

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:QF0VCIiYC8wJ:www.carlsonschool.umn.edu/assets/71712.pdf+decision+fatigue+exhausts+self-regulatory+resources&hl=en&gl=us&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESj-4plSN-h4zNaKqHI8on6iCcOwx48aLwdyf-CGppOpX2WQKGW_SuN9fTJ3cYZ5iXKurPTjmP4RASWv0fSfNBcxpf5zS-EkgQjW5OXVFaez-YAtktUfvAYI05Ifd9jFZALfyN2Z&sig=AHIEtbQ9yPybUka4NrJ-UZLv8NtV18ZEJA

 

zdo

 

Actually the vignette is taken just about word for word from the description a client spoke as he was describing what it was like to fall into impulsive trading. He was not tired. It happened early in the day. But it did happen that he had had a string of winning days before this happened. From there, we knew he had a saboteur as a resident program (or voice) in the community of his mind that he had not observed before. So this was not a case of fatigue. But fatigue is a serious problem that traders need to deal with or it will lead to some serious problems in their trading performance.

 

Traders really have to decide that they are going to shape the indwelling programs that the brain has built over the eons and through adaptation. I find that need a call to action or they stay stuck in the old limiting patterns.

 

Rande

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...Traders really have to decide that they are going to shape the indwelling programs that the brain has built over the eons and through adaptation. I find that need a call to action or they stay stuck in the old limiting patterns.

 

Rande

 

Amen to that . [can I get a hallelujah ?]

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    • Date: 20th December 2024.   BOE Sees More Support For Rate Cuts As USD Strengthens!   The US Dollar continues to rise in value after obtaining further support from positive economic and employment data. However, the hawkish Federal Reserve continues to support the currency. On the other hand, the Great British Pound comes under significant strain. Why is the GBPUSD declining? GBPUSD - Why is the GBPUSD Declining? The GBPUSD is witnessing bullish price movement for three primary reasons. The first is the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy, the second is the positive US news releases from yesterday and the third is the votes from the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.     Even though the Bank of England chose to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.75%, the number of votes to cut indicates dovishness in the upcoming months. Previously, traders were expecting the BoE to remain cautious due to inflation rising to 2.6% and positive employment data. In addition to this, the Retail Sales data from earlier this morning only rose 0.2%, lower than expectations adding pressure to GBP. Investors also should note that the two currencies did not conflict and price action was driven by both an increasing USD and a declining GBP. The US Dollar rose in value against all currencies, except for the Swiss Franc, against which it saw a slight decline. The GBP fell against all currencies, except for the GBPJPY, which ended higher solely due to earlier gains. US Monetary Policy and Macroeconomics The bullish price movement seen within the US Dollar Index continues to partially be due to its hawkish monetary policy. Particularly, indications from Jerome Powell that the Fed will only cut on two occasions and the first cut will take place in May. However, in addition to this the economic data from yesterday continues to illustrate a resilient and growing economy. This also supports the Fed’s approach to monetary policy and its efforts to push inflation back to the 2% target. The US GDP rose 3.1% over the past quarter beating expectations of 2.8%. The GDP rate of 3.1% is also higher than the first two quarters of 2024 (1.4% & 3.0%). In addition to this, the US Weekly Unemployment Claims fell from 242,000 to 220,000 and existing home sales rose to 4.15 million. Home sales in the latest month rose to an 8-month high. For this reason, the US Dollar rose in value against most currencies throughout the day. Analysts believe the US Dollar will continue to perform well due to less frequent rate cuts and tariffs. The US Dollar Index trades 1.65% higher this week. Bank of England Sees Increased Support for Rate Cuts! The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged as per market’s previous expectations. The decision is determined by a committee of nine members and at least five of them must vote for a cut for the central bank to proceed. Analysts anticipated only two members voting for a cut, but three did. This signals a dovish tone and increases the likelihood of earlier rate cuts in 2025. The three members that voted for a rate cut were Dave Ramsden, Swati Dhingra, and Alan Taylor. Advocates for lower rates believe the current policy is too restrictive and risks pushing inflation well below the 2.0% target in the medium term. Meanwhile, supporters of keeping the current monetary policy argue that it's unclear if rising business costs will increase consumer prices, reduce jobs, or slow wage growth. However, if markets continue to expect a more dovish Bank of England in 2025, the GBP could come under further pressure. In 2024, the GBP was the best performing currency after the US Dollar and outperformed the Euro, Yen and Swiss Franc. This was due to the Bank of England’s reluctance to adjust rates at a similar pace to other central banks. GBPUSD - Technical Analysis In terms of the price of the exchange, most analysts believe the GBPUSD will continue to decline so long as the Federal Reserve retains their hawkish tone. The exchange rate continues to form lower swing lows and lower highs. The price trades below most moving averages on the 2-hour timeframe and below the neutral level on oscillators. On the 5-minute timeframe, the price moves back towards the 200-bar SMA, but sell signals may materialise if the price falls back below 1.24894.     Key Takeaways: The US Dollar increases in value for a third consecutive day and increases its monthly rise to 2.32%. The US Dollar Index was the best performing currency of Thursday’s session, along with the Swiss Franc. US Gross Domestic Product rises to 3.1% beating economist’s expectations of 2.8%. US Weekly Unemployment Claims read 220,000, 22,000 less than the previous week and lower than expectations. The NASDAQ declines further and trades 5.00% lower than the previous lows. The GBPUSD ends the day 0.56% lower and falls more than 1% after the Bank of England’s rate decision. Three Members of the BoE vote to cut interest rates. The GBP was the worst performing currency of the day along with the Japanese Yen. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 19th December 2024.   Federal Reserve Sparks NASDAQ’s Sharpest Selloff of 2024!   The NASDAQ fell more than 3.60% after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, but gave hawkish comments. The stock market saw its largest decline witnessed in 2024 so far, as investors opted to cash in profits and not risk in the short-medium term. What did Chairman Powell reveal, and how does it impact the NASDAQ? The NASDAQ Falls To December Lows After Fed Guidance! The NASDAQ and US stock market in general saw a considerable decline after the press conference of the Federal Reserve. The USA100 ended the day 3.60% lower and saw only 1 of its 100 stocks avoid a decline. Of the most influential stocks the worst performers were Tesla (-8.28%), Broadcom (-6.91%) and Amazon (-4.60%).     When monitoring the broader stock market, similar conditions are seen confirming the investor sentiment is significantly lower and not solely related to the tech industry. The worst performing sectors are the housing and banking sectors. However, investors should also note that the decline was partially due to a build-up of profits over the past months. As a result, investors could easily sell and reduce exposure to cash in profits and lower their risk appetite. Analysts note that despite the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, the Chairman provided a positive outlook. He highlighted optimism for the economy and the employment sector. Therefore, many analysts continue to believe that investors will buy the dip, even if it’s not imminent. A Hawkish Federal Reserve And Powell’s Guidance Even though traditional economics suggests a rate cut benefits the stock market, the market had already priced in the cut. As a result, the rate cut could no longer influence prices. Investors are now focusing on how the Federal Reserve plans to cut in 2025. This is what triggered the selloff and the decline. Investors were looking for indications of 3-4 rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 and for the first cut to be in March. However, analysts advise that the forward guidance by the Chairman, Jerome Powell, clearly indicates 2 rate adjustments. In addition to this, analysts believe the Fed will now cut next in May 2025. The average expectation now is that the Federal Reserve will cut 0.25% on two occasions in 2025. The Fed also advised that it is too early to know the effect of tariffs and “when the path is uncertain, you go slower”. This added to the hawkish tone of the central bank. However, surveys indicate that 15% of analysts believe the Federal Reserve will be forced into cutting rates at a faster pace. As a result, the US Dollar Index rose 1.25% and Bond Yields to a 7-month high. For investors, this makes other investment categories more attractive and stocks more expensive for foreign investors. However, the average decline the NASDAQ has seen before investors buy the dip is 13% ($19,320). This will also be a key level for investors if the NASDAQ continues to decline. NASDAQ - Technical Analysis Due to the bearish volatility, the price of the NASDAQ is trading below all major Moving Averages and Oscillators on the 2-Hour chart. After retracement the oscillators are no longer indicating an oversold price and continue to point to a bearish bias. Sell indications are likely to strengthen if the price declines below $21,222.60 in the short-term.       Key Takeaways: A hawkish Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% and indicates only 2 rate cuts in 2025! The stock market witnesses its worst day of 2024 due to the Fed’s hawkish forward guidance. Economists do not expect a rate cut before May 2025. Housing and bank stocks fell more than 4%. Investors are cashing in their gains and not looking to risk while the Fed is unlikely to cut again until May 2025. The US Dollar Index rises close to its highest level since November 2022. US Bond Yields also rise to their highest since May 2024. The NASDAQ’s average decline in 2024 before investors opt to purchase the dip is 13%. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • SNAP stock at 11.38 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?SNAP
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