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GlassOnion

Currency Wars, or Will ECB Cut Rates?

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Why not cut rares now ? some people ask? very easy, because Ben said so. US is leading a currency war and aims to have as cheaper usd as possible. and it is not succeeding! despite 00% IR, despite all those QEs and twists the dollar is very high, nearly 81 on the index - this is not good. if Draghi lowers the euro it'll give even more strength to the dollar. the more strength it gains the more pressure it gives on commodities such as oil (which is a good thing actually having cheaper gas (which does not get any cheaper though...) as it brings down expenses on manufacturing and logistics). but we leave in a world where economy is no longer a science - it is a subjective dream, idea, theory, call it whatever - nebulous... point is - there is a currency war where the States sacrifices half of EU and endangers the euro as a currency. and Draghi obeys the FED in helping it to keep the dollar down. i suppose it's not necessary to explain why the US needs cheap dollar? - for increased exports. btw we'll see the trade balance today and will see how increasingly expensive usd affects it.

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If Draghi is going to listen someone, that would be Merkel I guess.

I think he does not need to play interest rate card at the moment because the market already knows the situation in the eurozone. QE infinity, 0% interest rate and fiscal cliff stuff are dominating the headlines again but EUR/USD is back to 2004-2006 levels.

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I agree, I think we are already in a currency war.

EU wants a weak euro to stimulate their industries which means = more exports = more jobs.

 

The US seems to be int the same haed place as the EU.

So what's next? Tariffs??

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